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I buy vaccine logistic by using the GLOVEs profit as hedging to vaccine news.

• I am buying more FREIGHT after I read Group MD
• Chew Chong Keat interview
• How to distribute the ultra-cold vaccine? I am allocating my GLOVE profit to TASCO Cold Chain to hedge vaccine news
• How to distribute the ultra-cold vaccine? I am allocating my GLOVE profit to FREIGHT to hedge vaccine news
• KGB's dry ice plant to flourish from Pfizer's vaccine success?

I am reproducing TOPGLOV AGM Slide to my blog.

This post don't have any value added content.

Compile here for my own record.

Please skip if you don't like it.

TOPGLOV estimates demand will continue to be strong for next 12 months in view of supply being limited, with ASPs reflective of the prevalent demand supply situation
 

TOP GLOVE - AGM (From Telegram Message)
1) Compounded increase - It means that this current quarter and next quarter will also increase by 30% for each quarter;
(i) 1-3 month increase by 10% every month;
(ii) 4-6 months increase by another 10% every month;

2) Illustration: - Assuming last quarter's selling price was at USD80 for normal order, it will be selling now at: -
(i) January (+10%) = 88usd
(ii) February (+10%) = 96.80 usd
(iii) March (+10%) = 106.60 usd
(iv) April (+10%) = 117.20 usd
(v) May (+10%) = 129.90 usd
(v) June (+10%) = 143 usd

3) Hence, from USD80, it will increase till USD143 per ctn = 58% increased;

4) For Spot Order, the increase will be more severe. Assuming last quarter's selling price was USD120, the increased will be by 58% = USD189.60 per ctn!

1/6 Topglov 股东大会资讯要点

:white_check_mark: 30%的产量会用作现货订单（spot orders），spot orders 的价格是大幅高过手套平均价的。
:white_check_mark: 管理层表示最好的还没到，因为产品扩张会专注在Nitrile Glove (利润率更高的手套），Q2 的手套平均售价（ASP）预计比Q1高30%
:white_check_mark: 美国的手套储存量在还是处于极低水平（2019年12月美国储存的手套约16.9b 支，而2020年10月美国储存的手套只有2b支。）
:white_check_mark: 全球疫苗化需要时间，而使用疫苗也需要手套。
:white_check_mark: 新的扩张，尤其是来自新竞争者的预计会推迟，因为缺乏承包商去按装生产线、原料和人工不足问题。
:white_check_mark: 虽然中国和太过很积极投入在手套产量，但大马的手套产量的扩张也是不逊于人，其他国家要追上马来西亚还有很大的距离。
:white_check_mark: 公司积极回购股票是因为认为公司的表现会继续强劲和股价被低估，而公司有接近 RM 4b 的现金，认为用在回购股票的回报会比放在定期存款好。
:white_check_mark: 美国CBP的问题基本上都解决了，除了员工住宿情况是否达标还在等待审核。
:white_check_mark: 关于员工住宿问题，公司过去已经投了 RM70m在员工宿舍，预计投在员工住宿和改善的资金一共会达到RM195m。
:white_check_mark: 过去几年，公司加强了自动化生产，从以往每生产1m的手套需要8个员工降低至需要1.6个员工（对员工的依赖性降低了）。
:white_check_mark: 28家场暂停运作，而在2020年12月20日已经恢复运作，这对公司的全年营业额影响预计是4%左右（换句话说，下个季度的营业额预计会影响16%左右）
:white_check_mark: 公司目前工厂的使用率（utilisation rate) 大约在95%左右。
:white_check_mark: 公司的原料供应目前还是充足。
:white_check_mark: 公司预计能在2021年年中在香港上市。
:white_check_mark: FY2020的开销费用突然大增主要是因为对外劳偿还RM136m 的一次性费用和偿还美国债务有实现外汇亏损。
:white_check_mark: 管理层对于疫苗的看法是，疫苗目前的进展很好，不过要让全球恢复到以往正常的生活还是有很多不确定性和问题要解决。
:white_check_mark: 订单并没有被取消，而且还有很多新订单进来。
:white_check_mark: 之前提到客户的手套储存量大约是顶2到3个月，但是最近管理层问了客户，它们目前的储存量只能顶1个星期到2个星期左右，有的甚至说手套还没运到库存，上一批就已经卖完了。
:white_check_mark: 管理层预计手套的需求在未来12个月的依然很强劲，而供应依然很有限。这点已经和其他手套同行确认过。
:white_check_mark: ASP的价格趋势依然很强劲，明年的ASP还是可以保持，前景看好。
:white_check_mark: 公司的长远目标是在2035年进全球500强公司，要进全球500强其中一个条件是营业额至少要达到35b美元，根据公司营业额过去的平均20%的年复合增长率，要在未来15年达到这个水平是有希望的。
:white_check_mark: 老板认为这个手套行业的生意还是可以继续做至少50年。
:white_check_mark: 老板也说，即使疫情结束了，人类的卫生意识已经提升，手套的需求量增长率可以达到15%，而疫情前的手套需求量增长率是10%。（千万不要小看这5%的差距，如果时间拉长20年来看，差距可是两倍以上）

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6 Jan 2020 Top Glove AGM Summary
1. ASP in Q2FY21 is expected 30% higher than Q1FY21. The whole industry players in gloves manufacturing agreed that the ASP will remain strong for year 2021.
2. Delivery period increase from 30~40 days previous to 560 days and 370 days for nitrile and natural rubber gloves respectively. Note: Nitrile and natural rubber gloves comprises of around 90% of Top Glove revenue in FY20.
3. US gloves stockpile reduced from 16.9 billion pieces to 2 billion pieces in October 2020.
4. Some Top Glove customer stockpile for gloves reduced from 2~3 months to 1~2 weeks.
5. Top Glove is exporting gloves to 195 countries currently.
6. Top Glove has enough raw material for continuous manufacturing of gloves.
7. Top Glove expects new players in gloves manufacturing facing issues from factory installing, workers and raw material issues.
8. Dividend payout for Q2, Q3 and Q4FY21 will be 70% on PATAMI.
9. Reason for share buyback (SBB) is because Top Glove thinks their company is undervalued at the purchased price and expects better return than putting into FD which gives 2% only. The amount of SBB is only 2.15% from the allowed 10% threshold.
10. Top Glove has 4 billion cash as of 31 Dec 2020.
11. US Border issues will be resolved when the independent international consultant verified the hostels and accommodation meets the required of Workers Housing Act 446.
12. All Top Glove factories that has been affected by Covid-19 lockdown has been resumed operations as of 20 Dec 2020. The lockdown is expected to impact 4% of the total revenue and profit.
13. Top Glove is spending 100 million for next 3 years to build hostels for 7300 workers and using 95 million to acquire new apartments for 2700 workers.
14. Top Glove is moving towards automation direction which previously 1 million gloves need 8 workers and now only 1.6 workers.
15. Top Glove current factory utilization rate is 95%.
16. Malaysia will remain the focus ground of gloves manufacturing activities at the same time expanding their existing foreign manufacturing plant.
17. Top Glove Hong Kong listed is expected around mid 2021.
18. Top Glove aims to achieve Fortune500 by 2035 with an expected CAGR of 20%. Note: Top Glove current CAGR is 28%.