Gurus

How to Analyze a Business, the Sherlock Holmes Way - Vishal Khandelwal

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 21 Apr 2017, 01:11 PM

April 21, 2017 | Vishal Khandelwal

Peter Bevelin has written a few amazing books, like Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, A Few Lessons for Investors and Managers, and the latest All I Want To Know Is Where I’m Going To Die So I’ll Never Go There.

But one of his lesser-known books that I have on my all time favourites lists is A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes. Through this book, Bevelin has distilled Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes into bite-sized principles and key quotes. In fact, this book is much more than a collection of quotes. It is a way to learn the powers of observation, understand the limits of our mind, and counter the narrative fallacy.

Bevelin writes in the book…

What distinguishes Holmes from most mortals is that he knows where to look and what questions to ask. He pays attention to the important things and he knows where to find them.

At the start of the book, Bevelin quotes mathematics and science writer Martin Gardner saying this about Sherlock Holmes –

Like the scientist trying to solve a mystery of nature, Holmes first gathered all the evidence he could that was relevant to his problem. At times, he performed experiments to obtain fresh data. He then surveyed the total evidence in the light of his vast knowledge of crime, and/or sciences relevant to crime, to arrive at the most probable hypothesis. Deductions were made from the hypothesis; then the theory was further tested against new evidence, revised if need be, until finally the truth emerged with a probability close to certainty.

There you have it! The entire process of solving a mystery is what the above paragraph contains –


In short, the three necessary qualities for good detective work are –

 

  1. Observation – Gathering evidence
  2. Deduction – Drawing inferences from evidence and working on them
  3. Knowledge – Processing the evidence, testing the hypothesis, and arriving at the truth in light of what you know (and don’t know)

Drawing Parallels with Business Analysis
Is the work of an investor or an analyst working diligently through a company’s analysis any different than that of a detective in search of the ultimate truth in a crime? I believe not.

And thus, Bevelin’s work on Sherlock Holmes is a great guide for anyone wanting to learn how to analyze businesses to pick the right kind of stocks for long-term investment.

As I sat down to make notes from the book, here is what I ended up with (click on the image below or click here to see a bigger version)…


…a hand-made poster that now adorns my wall and which suggests a series of checklist points that can be of immense help while analyzing businesses.

 

Just consider these five big ideas from Sherlock Holmes contained in the above poster (and the relevant texts from Holmes’ books, in blockquotes, below), which is also what another brilliant detective (in the investment world) and thinker Charlie Munger suggests us to do –

1. Know Human Nature
(What motivates people and what interests them – a great tool while assessing managements and crowd behaviour)

Human nature is a strange mixture, Watson. You see that even a villain and murderer can inspire such affection that his brother turns to suicide when he learns that his neck is forfeited.

2. Learning Never Stops
(Be a learning machine, asks Charlie Munger)

Education never ends, Watson. It is a series of lessons with the greatest for the last.

3. Reason Backwards
(Invert, always invert, Munger advises)

The essential factor in this method consists in working back from observations of conditions to the causes which brought them about. It is often a question of deciding the doings of yesterday by the records found today.

4. Cultivate Multidisciplinary Thinking
(Build a latticework of mental models, suggests Munger)

Breadth of view…is one of the essentials of our profession. The interplay of ideas and the oblique uses of knowledge are often of extraordinary interest.

One’s ideas must be as broad as Nature if they are to interpret Nature.

5. Don’t Make the World Fit Your Tools
(Don’t be a man with the hammer, asks Munger)

The advances on the laboratory side and the perfection of instruments have added much to our powers of diagnosis, but they have given some men the idea that they are everything and the use of one’s eyes and hands is looked on as old-fashioned. The man whose first idea in an obscure thoracic case is to have an x-ray plate taken and who cannot “bother” with physical signs does not deserve the name diagnostician.

Road Map on How to Think
In his testimonial, Nassim Taleb says this about A Few Lessons from Sherlock Holmes

We Sherlock Holmes fans, readers, and secret imitators need a map. Here it is. Peter Bevelin is one of the wisest people on the planet. He went through the books and pulled out sections from Conan Doyle’s stories that are relevant to us moderns, a guide to both wisdom and Sherlock Holmes. It makes you both wiser and eager to reread Sherlock Holmes.

It’s brilliant, this slim 73-page book that culls the essence of the world’s greatest detective’s teachings. Peter Bevelin demonstrates what students of Holmes have always known – that the adventures of the fictional detective are not just entertaining tales, but a road map on how to think, do research and hit upon a solution to a problem, whether it pertains to crime, or life, or investing.

“You know my methods. Apply them!” Holmes said in The Hound of the Baskervilles, which was published in 1902. More than a century later, that advice remains of great importance if you want to become a better thinker and investor.

Disclosure: I participate in the Amazon Associates Program, which simply means that if you purchase a book on Amazon from a link on this page, I receive a small commission. The book does not cost you any extra. I give away 100% of the commission for the betterment of the under-privileged.

http://www.safalniveshak.com/analyze-business-sherlock-holmes-way/ 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

supersaiyan3

Before you start all these hypothesis testing and murderer catching, one must understand how the world works, or in this limited space, how the financial market works.

In the world of Sherlock Holmes, it is absolute accuracy whereas in financial world, one need not to be very accurate.

Knowledge!!!! Conan often lay down the framework of the story for Sherlock to solve, how is the road system works, what are the characteristics of a retired patriot....

In financial world, one must understand the basics and reality in order to win. It is often without that guidance, makes smart people turns in a profit after 20 years.

For example, ROE of 8% is ok, 16% is wonderful, less than that is rubbish. PE of 8-12 is ok, 5 is wonderful (holding everything else constant). Market of 2% is suicide, 20% is ok, 40% is wonderful. Long term 20% / annum return on stock is ok, 25% is wonderful.....sort of thing.

I mean too often people say "got project is good", "restructure is good", "change name is good".....all that is saying "its not bad!" only.

2017-04-21 13:56

stockmanmy

the Sherlock Holmes Way...

if the market wants risk assets, give them risk assets or none.

meaning go buy Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX, meaning the higher the scarier the better.

2017-04-21 15:08

stockmanmy

you all don't know the shelock holmes way only ......

the shelock holmes way not scared to go where clues lead him.......

the Sherlock Holmes Way...

if the market wants risk assets, give them risk assets or none.

meaning go buy Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX, meaning the higher the scarier the better.

what say you?

2017-04-21 15:39

stockmanmy

But seriously, both Sheloch Holmes way and B Graham Way were invented when Newtonian physics rule the world...when things were deterministic when there is no uncertainty principles.

But we now know that is not how the world works, not how the stockmarket works.

The stockmarket works on Quantum physics, not Newtonian physics.

that God do play dice with the world.

2017-04-22 15:18

Icon8888

You are still new to the market so you talk like a hero

In bill market everybody is hero

One day when the bear comes you will know what it is like

2017-04-22 17:45

stockmanmy

icon

One day bears and deaths will come.

some live their whole lives preparing for bears and deaths.

The Dynamic Way is to make as much money as possible while alive.

I like this quote :

What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher...of course it applies only to good companies.....your job, my job, our job is to identify which are good companies, lousy companies, tested companies, untested companies.

Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX,..are good companies

A lot of the companies in Ace are untested companies ...eg Salutica ...don't simply jump into them even if they carry promising labels.

2017-04-22 18:02

stockmanmy

icon...remember value investors in i3 buy Shell Petron and Cycle and carriage Bintang last year after the companies released record results..... I told them, warned them not to put so much confidence on fnancial results. You know what happened? Bintang just released 97% drop in profits.

Dynamic way better or value investor way better?

2017-04-22 18:15

PlsGiveBonus

Any good company will definite make a good investing decision?
It may be happen in ideal world
In the real world, good company will not survive if it is obsoleted by the market.
Investing in new ideas, something that can change this world, may resulting in a much profitable investment.

2017-04-22 18:15

stockmanmy

The shares of any good company in the small and medium cap category would have gone up in recent months....and will continue to go up until the environment changes .

And if there they cannot go up this environment, even Shelock Holmes cannot help you.

==================================
Any good company will definite make a good investing decision?

2017-04-22 18:27

stockmanmy

icon


and what happens if they continue to pour vast sums of money in tech stocks, innovations, new ideas while ignoring large caps, banks, traditional index stocks?

then how?

read page 42 of this week Edge.

2017-04-22 20:51

stockmanmy

investors the world over are hungry for growth, and willing to pay a premium

They call them the disruptors.

software innovations
hardware innovations
e commerce
big data and AI


icon...your job as the job of all value investor is to evolve and join them as you cannot beat them.

2017-04-22 22:26

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