What are investors talking about right now?

3 Phases of Investment (Pandemic, Recovery & Post-Recovery)

sumochichi
Publish date: Wed, 24 Feb 2021, 02:55 PM
What are people thinking at the moment

 

I would like to thank my 3,789 viewers for my first blog post and my very first 9 commentors.


Now i want to explain what i mean by 3 phases when i mention: Pandemic, Recovery & Post-Recovery.

 

 

1. Pandemic period (Pre-recovery)

It is the period when covid hit us all very hard and no vaccines were created for the public. It was the time when many industries had to shut down due to MCO which causes the market to take a big dive. The only industry that profitted the most was Healhcare and to be more specific, it was the Gloves. (very obvious from the every day news back then).

Gloves are in demand during pandemic period due to the overwhelming orders from other foreign countries. Many foreign countries also faces the similar fate and had to have their very own MCO. These foreign countries does not have as many glove production lines like Malaysia due to the high cost that they will have to bear unlike Malaysia (developing country). 

Other industries that profitted are furniture, semiconductor, cryptocurrency and tech.

 

2. Recovery period

It is the period when vaccines are created and are now officially distributing to the majority population. A period when people are still being vaccinated. This is the period when glove sectors will not have the same bullish momentum as it once had during pandemic period. 

The industry that will grow most during this period are the Semiconductors, Banks, Tech and Cryptocurrency.

Semiconductors is similar to the glove. Malaysia is also a country that is well liked by suppliers for producing semiconductor products at a low price and huge volume. 

Banks shares are recovering and going up due to the loan interest that majority applied during the pandemic period. The volume of loan interest payers are increasing month after month. Therefore, the recovery and profit should increase is on a monthly basis.

Cryptocurrency is due to the rise of bitcoin. Apparently there are many other crypto that are on the rise too such as Dogecoin. Many crypto companies are using the "burn" method to give a scarcity value to their cryptocurrency. In other word, there will be lesser volume of the same cryptocurrency in the future.

Eg: today there are 1 million bitcoin in the market. 1 year from now, there could only be 100k bitcoin. (this is for education purposes  only)

Tech is due to the Joe biden being president in US. Also, tech is something that we need in our everyday life to improve our quality of life. Despite that, only very few tech counters in Malaysia that will profit. 

 

3. Post-recovery period

This is the period when majority people are vaccinated. Little to no-people are no longer being vaccinated. When borders are open and people are free to travel from city to city. A period when people are even able to fly overseas. As for stock market, this is a period when investors are mainly investing in companies that will invest in companies whose next QR is better than previous QR.

The industry whose shares go up the most will be Bank, Tourism, Construction, Oil & Gloves (don't be surprise).

Banks share as explained in my recovery period. In addition to that, factories in general will be back to business for import and export businesses. Orders should be coming back in for most factories by then.

Tourism, with an increase number of visitors from other countries. Hotel business should slowly boom back to normal. Tourism agencies and holiday planners related should be receiving lots of holiday packages orders. I expect a "revenge for holiday" during this period. Spending money for the best holiday experience that has not been experienced for a long time. 

Construction will make a come back. Why? A big chunk of government fund comes from construction. Construction is also one of the oldest profession that allows progression in the country AND has the most employment. More people earn income. more tax money for the government to spend for the country's development.

Oil is similar to construction. Share price will go up. Oil also has many uses and is still widely needed around the world. Renewable energy is catching up to Oil but is still not mature yet. So Oil will still be around for quite some times. 

Gloves. Why will this share price go up after recovery period. Easy. Many foreign companies has pre-booked glove orders AND PAID DEPOSIT. The Quarter reports for gloves may be as green or greener compared to last year based on the previous asp that was still highest. As a glove supplier, the job is to buy gloves when it is the cheapest before cost increases due to "shortage of raw materials", "increase price of gas fuel for production purposes" and etc. Since gloves has no expiry date, many glove suppliers next sensible move is to stock up as much as possible in their warehouse and sell them at a higher price over time. Some glove companies considered building more production lines AND more warehouses to produce & stock up as much gloves as possible. It is the only method to make cost of production lower when the price of other costs are increasing. (remember, more volume and cheaper price). 

Other industries that may follow are semiconductor, furniture and tech. I do expect a few of these counters to go up.

 

The above are just my thoughts and opinions. None of it are stock or financial advises. I do think that it is a great idea to buy cheap stocks which you considered great when it is the cheapest right before the arrival of the next phase. Cheers and good luck!!

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1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

sumochichi

I gave very little reasoning. But i think you all can come up with your own ideas as to why and all. Such as banks will also do better because people buying more houses & automobile when they got jobs and all.

2021-02-24 15:07

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