kcchongnz blog

“Three years” and investing 李香兰三年 kcchongnz

kcchongnz
Publish date: Sun, 16 Jul 2017, 06:53 PM
kcchongnz
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This a kcchongnz blog

I was born and grew up in a Chinese New Village where we had a lot of fun in catching spider, fighting fish, playing hide and seek, cigarette boxes, long and short stick, jumping around squares drawn on the ground etc. We played a lot of ping pong, badminton and basketball too.

Another past time we did was singing song in our Village Library, and more often in the bathroom. You know at that time we did not have karaoke. One song I remember very well is this song “San Nien” by the then songbird Lee Siang Lan. Here is a link of this beautiful song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICL061nPcA8

I like the song so much that I have even incorporated in my investing timeline, that investing for building wealth is a long-term endeavour, a minimum of 3 years, using fundamental value investing (FVI).

In the following recent article “Invest in good and cheap” in the link below,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/127444.jsp

I have shown a portfolio of ten stocks named “GE13 Stock Watch”, followed the principle of investing in good and cheap, as published on 21st January 2013, have had an investing period of four and a half years, i.e. more than “San Nien”. It gave very good long-term return of an average of 151% as on today, widely out-performed the gain of the broad market KLCI of just 19.1% during the same period.

Just 5 days ago, Again, I introduced a value investing strategy of buying good companies cheap in Bursa, the “ColdEye 5 yardsticks” investing strategy as shown in the link below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/127559.jsp

A portfolio of 9 stocks meeting the criteria above and were chosen as good investing candidates at about the time on 17th March 2013 basing on the 5 metrics. After four years and four months, andof course more than “San Nien”, and as on 10th July 2017, the portfolio returned an average of 325%. This return way out-performed the total return of 18.3% of KLCI over the same period.

Two days ago, in order to provide evidence that FVI works again, I have shown another FVI strategy of Magic Formula Investing in the link below,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/127825.jsp

It shows 11 stocks chosen mostly using the Magic Formula investing strategy from 1st August 2013 to the end of the month. More than “San Nien” but slightly less than four years have passed and as on 13th July 2017, the average total return of the 11 stocks chosen is 175%, way out-performed the total return of 10% of KLCI during the same period.

As you can see, evidence from my personal experience in FVI did provide high extra-ordinary return over a period of more than “San Nien”.

That is the reason why I still love the song “San Nien”.

However, it is really very hard to convince people that FVI works, more so to tell them to wait for a minimum of 3 years investing horizon. I can easily say less than 5% of the people here have an ear to hear this, even though I have provided ample personal evidence that it did, and continues to work.

That is also why I have kept on harping about FVI and stubbornly providing my personal experience that it worked. Otherwise what else can I do to substantiate it?

Recently, I received this comment in my mail box after I wrote the article above.

 

[Blanked has left a new comment on your post "Invest in good and cheap kcchongnz":

do you know why you have less subscribers than OTB?
OTB's strategy is 3 to 6 months to see money come, your strategy takes 3 to 6 year to see a good result if we are lucky ……..]

OTB does have a lot of subscribers, no doubt about it. If someone has been very successful in stock pick in the last few years, and the money really “come” in 3 to 6 months, it is natural that he will have a lot of followers. Yes, he made a lot of money in the 3-6 months’ time frame as he has shown us that. But bear in mind that although he emphasizes on technical analysis, he also checks with fundamentals. Hence, we can say that he also believes in FVI. He certainly has his niche. If you have not subscribed to his service, you should do so.

But is this statement on my investment strategy that “your strategy takes 3 to 6 years to see a good result if we are lucky” correct?

I had started my stock pick service about a year ago as an additional service to my FVI course participants who are busy in their work as many of them are in senior positions in companies. Let us look at the return of those stocks picked following FVI with detail analysis and valuations, specifically those meeting the principle of the Joel Greenblatt’s Magic formula investing, for this short time frame.

Please note that those stocks were picked some time ago and prices have changed, many have changed substantially, and hence the investment thesis may be different now.

 

Return of Stock Picks in the last one year

Table 1 in the Appendix shows 12 stocks met the criteria of good companies selling cheap then, especially using the Magic Formula Principle, were chosen as good investing candidates starting a year ago. How has the portfolio performed?

 

As on 15th July 2017, the average total return of the 12 stocks chosen is 36%, way out-performed the total return of just 7.6% of KLCI, or the broader FBM Emas Index of 9.5% over the same one-year period.

KESM, picked exactly a year ago, has the best total return of 186%, followed by Magni-Tech at 80.3%, picked just 7 months ago. Superlon, picked just 4 months ago, had a return of 67%. OKA and Luxchem, picked 1 to 2 months ago, returned 22%.

There are 3 stocks, or 25%, making negative returns ranging from just -10.9% to -1.3%.  Incidentally, WTK, the worst performer at -10.9%, was selected based on deep value asset-based investing.

Again, as other portfolios I have posted before,

Heads we win; tails we don’t lose much.

That is the very essence of FVI, low risk and potentially high return, even in the shorter term.

 

Conclusions

Again, and repeatedly, I have shown you, with my own personal experience, that FVI, whether using the ColdEye 5 yardsticks investing, the Magic Formula, or other FVI strategies of buying good companies cheap, have worked, and worked very well, and I believe it will continue to work. Furthermore, these strategies are low risk investing strategies.

It is intuitive. It is logical. it is plausible. It provides potential high return with limited downside.

It is easy to pick up the FVI skill. However, most people do not have the interest nor time to learn the skill. Here is where people like us are providing this service of stock picks for them to consider investing to build up long-term wealth, safely but surely.

More importantly, while you are investing, you are also learning about FVI simultaneously in a structured manner. You would understand the process and rationales of why certain stocks are picked. Eventually, if one has the interest and the determination to learn about this special skill of FVI, he would be able to invest confidently by himself.

Here are a couple of testimonials,

[Blanked

Jul 3 (13 days ago)

Hi K C,

I am delighted the NAV broke the RM1m hurdle, both Foreign (in 8 months) & Local ( I a year) Portfolio return more than 41%.  

Thank you for the continue good performing of the portfolio.

Blanked]

[Blanked

Jul 3 (13 days ago)

 
 

Well done KC.

Pleased to have made the PD trip and to have met up with you.

The growing fellowship inspired by you is testament to your efforts in promoting FA, particularly benefiting the young but still not too late for old guys like me and Swee Loh!

Keep well.

Blanked]

 

Again, if you are interested in getting some guidance on what to invest in Bursa and at the same time, to learn up the FVI skills, you may contact me at

ckc14invest@gmail.com

K C Chong

 

Appendix

Table 1: 1-year return of stock picks

Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 19 of 19 comments

3iii

How long will the individual shares be held? When will the individual shares be sold?

2017-07-16 20:13

eyewitness

"I had started my stock pick service about a year ago."
How does one subscribe to your stock pick service?

2017-07-16 21:07

4444

"I had started my stock pick service about a year ago." Sure 1 year ago not 2-3 years back?

2017-07-16 21:09

4444

If KC good he already multi millionaire. So how rich is he? Which annual report got his name?

2017-07-16 21:09

VenFx

Kcchongnz excellency .... keep it up :)

2017-07-16 22:12

stockraider

Raider totally agree loh....someone can make 50% to 100% 3mths to say 12mts...but stretched it longer term 3 yrs, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and 20 yrs...the return of most of the great investors would not beat 20% pa compound loh....!!

Even the world greatest investors...W,Buffet only make less than 20% pa compound over 20 yrs mah...!!

So the point...is.. if u think...stockmarket....will help u be very rich..in the long run and u expect to make 30% min compound pa for next 20 yrs...raider says forget it loh...!!

Raider says stockmarket is a place for steady accumulation of wealth loh....!!
It is marathon runner rather than a sprinter mah...!!

2017-07-16 22:22

lching

like

2017-07-16 22:23

cheoky

give a like

2017-07-17 01:21

angelol

Who is OTB?

2017-07-17 12:52

jackfruit

Raider u are right. Stock investment is long term n steady acclamation of wealth. I bought my first stock in 1982.It took me 35years for my stocks value to hit one million. It also all about financial planning too.

2017-07-17 13:01

Ooi Teik Bee

Post removed.Why?

2017-07-17 13:32

abang_misai

After reading i3 for so many years, I can conclude that OTB is far better than kcchongnz. Good work OTB.

2017-07-17 13:34

Lewis Lee

Ooi Teik Bee, you are very humble and a real gentleman, I salute you ^^

2017-07-17 15:57

Investingold

Buy Dufu as well. It's a good tech stock with a P/E less than 8.

2017-07-17 22:19

Tom

what a joke...... totally not agree with you, I think kcchong is a lot better than otb in term of FA


Posted by LL Cheng > Jul 17, 2017 01:41 PM | Report Abuse

OTB, you are a true sifu

like the Chinese saying : green is originated from blue and better than blue (青出于蓝而胜于蓝)

2017-07-20 23:04

unknown

kia ora sifu kcchongnz....."catching spider, fighting fish, playing hide and seek, cigarette boxes, long and short stick, jumping around squares drawn on the ground etc. We played a lot of ping pong, badminton and basketball too"....all these activities were very normal.

my peer did extraordinary stupeed thing =!=....we catches scorpions, got stung by scorpions, we catches centipedes to sell it to the rich taukeh for their pet arowana feeding, almost end up lying in the hospital for the centipede's venom.....the most stupeed thing, we go "cuci mata" tengok sexy lenglui....lenglui with 36"24"36", kena dikejar itu lenglui punya bapak dengan parang =!=

baru-baru ini, ada satu lenglui lalu-lalang.....tangkal 21hb Jun 2017, lenglui kasi flaunt sama dia punya body, fuuyoh !!!! terpancut darah hidung macam aliran air paip.....earning ada quantum leap!!!

You intai-intai tengok body lenglui ada cun tak ? hidung darah I masih mengalir....

lenglui body measurements :

1) 3 years continuous revenue improvement with net profit improvement

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=2127

ini makin lama makin langsing wor itu body....

2) Profit margin > 10% , data ft.com bagi 14.93%

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=COMFORT:KLS

3)ROA = 19.99% , ROE = 23.46 %

4)Debt/ Equity = 0.0457, almost negligible

5)current P/E = 12.8 sahaja....

ini macam punya measurements, itu value investor hamsap lou sama itu grow investor punya hamsap lou akan mali......itu TA punya hamsap lou akan mali juga....

tengok-tengok, jangan tak tengok, nanti lenglui pakai baju sudah tak dapat intai sudah lor....

2017-07-31 23:26

unknown

there are just too many factions of investors in the market ecosystem

some faction practices value investing (value hamsap lou). they buy the undervalue counters irregardless the quality of the company. As long as the counters in discount, value investor will come.

some faction practices growth investing (growth ham sap lou ). they buy the growth counters with quite a high PE with the expectation the future coming earnings will bring down the PE of their entry. growth counter will most of the time will remain in high PE, there just hardly and window of opportunity for the buyer to buy at the low PE because of the quality, normally the BOD are very competent & trustworthy, they will continue to bring the company through a new height.

some faction practice momentum investing / technical play (TA ham sap lou ). They buy & sell of the counter purely base on the technical analysis.

there greatest counter or the king maker counter is the counter that are going to attract all these factions to come together.....all the hamsap lou coming for 2127...wahahahaha

my 三年 leng lui

2017-08-01 14:25

Dolly_Chai2

Hi KC.
Appreciate if you could share with us how you calculate the intrinsic value of Zhulian & OKA.
For these 2 shares particularly, did you base on DCF or DDM?

Please share with us your calculation so that we can understand your assumptions in the parameters used as well.

Thanks again for your good sharing

2017-08-02 15:55

Dolly_Chai2

Hi KC.

Can you share with us your calculation of intrinsic value for Zhulian & OKA?

Thanks.

2017-08-23 13:34

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