kcchongnz blog
Investing Concept Margin of Safety kcchongnz
I have just read the comments below from the biggest mouth in i3investor
[Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 07:56 PM | Report Abuse 
kc...there are no accounting margin of safety...its a delusion.
There are only two kinds of safety....
1 learn to say NO....
2 good sense of timing.....
using NTA and PE as margin of safety is a delusion.....]
One can see how naive and ignorant is the commentator above who thinks that he is the greatest investor around. If I were him, and do not understand what Margin of safety, MOS, is, I would just keep quiet, as then nobody will know I am that ignorant and stupid.
Just what is margin of safety, MOS, in investing?
MOS was popularized by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing decades ago. Graham’s MOS is the difference between a stock’s price and its intrinsic value. In theory, the further a stock’s price is below its intrinsic value, the greater the margin of safety against future uncertainty and the greater the stock’s resiliency to market downturns.
“If you were to distil the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.” Benjamin Graham
Graham’s most famous disciple, Warren Buffett, had something to say about MOS in his speech during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in 1996,
"On the margin of safety, which means, don't try and drive a 9,800-pound truck over a bridge that says it's, you know, capacity: 10,000 pounds. But go down the road a little bit and find one that says, capacity: 15,000 pounds."
When Buffett analyzes a prospective investment, he wants the value at his entry price to be much lower than his value estimate for the company. The difference between the two figures is his MOS which limits the size of losses in case there are errors in his business analysis or assumptions.
Buffett’s right-hand man Charles Munger also said a piece about MOS,
"The margin of safety concept boils down to getting more value than you're paying,"
Both Buffett and Munger are billionaires in USD term, result from investing in the stock market. They have also created many other multi-millionaires from their investors.
Investment legend Seth Klarmen, is a hedge fund manager who runs Boston-based firm Baupost. With $32 billion under management, Baupost is one of the largest hedge funds. He is worth $1.5 billion USD, all from investing in the stock market. He has also made many multi-millionaires for his investors.
Seth Klarman is seen as an expert in value investing. His book, exactly named "Margin of Safety," a cult classic among investors, sells for as much as $3,000 on Amazon.
A few quotes from Seth Klarmen on MOS in his book.
“A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”
“By always buying at a significant discount to underlying business value, and giving preference to tangible assets over intangibles. (This does not mean that there are not excellent investment opportunities in businesses with valuable intangible assets.)… Since investors cannot predict when values will rise or fall, valuation should always be performed conservatively, giving considerable weight to worst-case liquidation value as well as to other methods.”
“A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”
Mohnish Pabrai founded Pabrai Investment Funds in 1999. His long-only equity fund has returned a cumulative 517% net for investors versus 43% for the S&P 500 Index since the fund's inception in 2000. Outperforming the S&P 500 by 1103% from its inception through 2013, Pabrai quickly became one of the most recognized value investors in the world. This is what he has said about MOS,
“The idea is that you buy things at a significant discount to what their underlying value is, so that in the event that either bad things happen or you made some mistake in your calculations, you have some fallback so you do not lose money. There is also another aspect to margin of safety, that is that the greater the discount to intrinsic value that you are paying you get two things downside protection and upside.”
Conclusion
The concept of MOS is used by almost all the successful super investors in the world. Some may not use it, but yet they just keep quiet as they know it is a plausible, logical and proven successful concept in investing.
Yes, estimation of the value of a stock is an art as well as a science. There is no guarantee that your estimation is correct. But then without an estimation of the value, how much are you willing to pay for it?
Buying something at a price way below its estimated value. Do I need to elaborate more about that?
“Investing success is not about buying something good, but from buying something well” Howard Marks
KC Chong @ckc14invest@gmail.com
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 332 comments
No dispute here mah....but raider advice u stay off kc mah...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 01:22 PM | Report Abuse
its the best...and it can only come from a real expert after 60.....
2019-02-03 13:23
Raider care about sslee, he has helped me ..i indebted to him loh...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 01:39 PM | Report Abuse
lurker...who cares about SSlee? I don't....
2019-02-03 13:40
well, lose money in stock market is very normal.....and make or lose sure do not depend on what I write in i3.....I am not their guardian....
2019-02-03 13:58
woah....raider, u mean certain people like raider and kc is exempt from close examination.?
2019-02-03 14:01
Posted by stockraider > Feb 3, 2019 01:07 PM | Report Abuse
This qqq has no track record just escape from tanjung rambutan, by changing his name from mammy to qqq, talk bad of kc, who have contributed so much to i3 ??
Enough is enough...KC is one of the best trainer in i3 mah...!!
Chinese old people says don try to break people rice bowl, and this mental patient escapist qqq is precisely doing that loh...!!
Raider,
Thanks for the compliment. Despite our heated argument on certain issues previously, we still respect each other's philosophy and point of view.
I hope the rest do the same.
2019-02-03 15:36
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 01:10 PM | Report Abuse
me? I give the best advice and its free too.
You mean those given to the public and newbies in i3investor for the last couple of years, sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ espectively?
And all the quack quack quack?
2019-02-03 15:38
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 12:59 PM | Report Abuse
kc
simple....for 2018, the newbies who did not attend any subscription service or any investment seminar and did not buy any shares came out ahead of those who do....
So you had a crystal ball in front of you on 1st January 2018 that the year would be a bad year for stocks? Or are you just a snake oil salesman? What about year 2009 to 2017?
And why you quack quack quack the whole of 2018 telling people to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai, and then told others because your master was in it and so you quack quack quack?
2019-02-03 15:52
kc
me?
I think the move from a forum of rubbish collectors to a forum for quality collectors is a good movement......
2019-02-03 17:55
I think the move from a forum of rubbish collectors to a forum for quality collectors is a good movement......but I also very practical one.....I know the forum cannot just have quality stocks, so I propose people buy Jaks at 50 sen....very good choice......
2019-02-03 17:59
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 05:59 PM | Report Abuse
I think the move from a forum of rubbish collectors to a forum for quality collectors is a good movement......but I also very practical one.....I know the forum cannot just have quality stocks, so I propose people buy Jaks at 50 sen....very good choice......
You definitely is damn good, damn good rubbish promoter promoting Jaks all the way down from RM1.80+ to 50 sen.
I suggest you to be given the best rubbish promoter title.
2019-02-03 18:05
kc
too bad u cannot find that from me and others also cannot evidence to that.....
2019-02-03 18:08
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 06:08 PM | Report Abuse
kc
too bad u cannot find that from me and others also cannot evidence to that.....
Common, it is all over i3investor for the last 2-3 years. Don't forget your other nicks such as Desa, Stockmanny, Brightsmart, TheLoneRAnger, qqq3 etc.
Oh, why do you need so many nicks to post in i3investor?
2019-02-03 18:40
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 08:43 PM | Report Abuse
it's called evolution....
Oh, evolution. From monkey to human.
I thought it was like those normal thing, when a conman being found out to be a conman, he changes his name to avoid people knowing him, and he can continue to con.
2019-02-03 20:52
It is evil lution mah....!!
QQQ,
Pls cut ur craps here, if u have nothing positive add here, pls buzz off from the "Margin of safety thread" here mah....!!
Raider need to embark in "Insas hatahway" promotion as a margin of safety stock here mah...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 3, 2019 10:30 PM | Report Abuse
it's evolution...
2019-02-03 22:44
No problem KC, i always give compliment, when it is due mah...!!
Our diff in opinion is small...we already agree to disagree mah...!!
KC pls keep up your good work here ..!!
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 3, 2019 03:36 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by stockraider > Feb 3, 2019 01:07 PM | Report Abuse
This qqq has no track record just escape from tanjung rambutan, by changing his name from mammy to qqq, talk bad of kc, who have contributed so much to i3 ??
Enough is enough...KC is one of the best trainer in i3 mah...!!
Chinese old people says don try to break people rice bowl, and this mental patient escapist qqq is precisely doing that loh...!!
Raider,
Thanks for the compliment. Despite our heated argument on certain issues previously, we still respect each other's philosophy and point of view.
I hope the rest do the same
2019-02-03 22:49
Raider,
the other thing is don't worry about people "breaking my rice bowl". I am not rich but after working 25 years as a civil engineer to quite a senior level in a public listed company, I have accumulated a little wealth, plus my investment return so far, I can live reasonably comfortably throughout my retirement, be it in 10 years, 20 years or 30 years (God willing). I will still be okay no matter how the market is as I don't even put half of what I have in the stock markets, here and abroad. I don't need tuition fee to survive too.
Teaching the right path of investing is my passion now, after retiring from engineering 17 years ago at the age of less than 50 years old, and migrated to a foreign land, though Malaysia is still my home.
With my academic qualifications in finance and investing, my practical investment knowledge through the wisdom of super investors, and the experience I have in the stock market, I feel it is a waste not to guide those who wish to learn about the right way of investing, and at the same time earn some pocket money in a honest way for a little more luxuries in life.
To be frank, I haven't got a single additional course participant for months, or even a year. But that is not my problem if people prefer to follow touting of stocks in the internet space, from tipsters and hence 90% of them lose money,instead of treating me for a daily teh tarik and roti canai for 6 months and learn all about the basics of fundamental investing,and earn extra-ordinary return safely but surely, ot even for the purpose of avoiding losing big in the market.
2019-02-03 23:27
I notice that kc, i know u can afford ,and your financial service business is just your part time sideline on something u r passionate about & interest in investment...to me in all fairness qqq should not do that on anyone, thats the reason, why i felt strongly against that qqq bad behavior loh..!!
It is no wrong, if u charge for your service ,after all it is a honest work loh...!!
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 3, 2019 11:27 PM | Report Abuse
Raider,
the other thing is don't worry about people "breaking my rice bowl". I am not rich but after working 25 years as a civil engineer to quite a senior level in a public listed company, I have accumulated a little wealth, plus my investment return so far, I can live reasonably comfortably throughout my retirement, be it in 10 years, 20 years or 30 years (God willing). I will still be okay no matter how the market is as I don't even put half of what I have in the stock markets, here and abroad. I don't need tuition fee to survive too.
Teaching the right path of investing is my passion now, after retiring from engineering 17 years ago at the age of less than 50 years old, and migrated to a foreign land, though Malaysia is still my home.
With my academic qualifications in finance and investing, my practical investment knowledge through the wisdom of super investors, and the experience I have in the stock market, I feel it is a waste not to guide those who wish to learn about the right way of investing, and at the same time earn some pocket money in a honest way for a little more luxuries in life.
To be frank, I haven't got a single additional course participant for months, or even a year. But that is not my problem if people prefer to follow touting of stocks in the internet space, from tipsters and hence 90% of them lose money,instead of treating me for a daily teh tarik and roti canai for 6 months and learn all about the basics of fundamental investing,and earn extra-ordinary return safely but surely, ot even for the purpose of avoiding losing big in the market.
2019-02-03 23:39
Posted by stockraider > Feb 4, 2019 12:17 AM | Report Abuse X
Correctloh...Insas is better.
Insas hold 19% of inari based on current inari valuation exceed the whole Insas mkt capitalization. If inari share price to Rm 1.20 it still just equal to insas capitalization mah...!!
Insas Nta is Rm 2.54 v share price Rm 0.77.
Insas has a positive nett cash holding of Rm 300m.
Insas trade at a PE 6.5x loh...!!
Insas pays div yield close to 3% pa loh...!!
This is a very balance & complete margin of safety investment mah...!!
Posted by calvintaneng > Feb 4, 2019 12:10 AM | Report Abuse
Inari good
Insas better!
2019-02-04 00:19
Posted by stockraider > Feb 4, 2019 12:08 AM | Report Abuse X
To me there are only 2 way of making sustainable earnings loh...!!
1.0 Based on margin of safety investment like deep undervalue share price & cash rich stock like insas that i m promoting here for safe investor.
Value Margin of safety investment is highly recommended by raider, bcos it is the foundation to safe investment and good practise.
It is easy to understand & easy to implement.
2.0 Buy into Growth stock at fair value like what Philip and 3iii had been doing.
But do not to fall in love with these stocks, when it is overvalue like when high PE 50x, low dividend yield which cannot justify the value u need to rethink.. to brake and reverse loh...!!
Stock cannot be overvalue forever loh....!!
If u look at raider's growth stock Hlbank, Hlfg, Hein, Panasonic, Ajino all are reasonable value with Pe 16x to 25x and dividend yield 2% to 6% pa loh..!!
Yet i feel shy to promote them bcos my expectation is low target of 8% to 10% pa hurdle, however psychology i do not take action to sell bcos i have been siting on big gain, enjoying the fruits planted long time ago.
I m not saying QL is a wrong investment going fwd, bcos it is yet to be proven , right now mah....!! But over paying is a sin in investment loh...!!
That is said, newbies need to identify new growth stock...if u want to invest like what Philip & 3iii are doing & not based on the current portfolio, unless there are selldown to a reasonable level.
2019-02-04 00:24
quote here quote there is easy
u can find a quote for every situation.
execution is the difficult part ( mostly)
s=Q r
for kyy, execution is the easy part.
quarter profits X 4 = sell land, margin and sailang
don't laugh, because KYY may have the last laugh.
2019-02-04 01:02
Calvin Tan,He is a true authentic practioner of Benjamin Graham value investment by exploiting on Margin of safety investment And diversifying his risk mah...!!
The comment below make sense mah..!!
Posted by calvintaneng > Feb 4, 2019 07:57 AM | Report Abuse
Precisely True Deep Value Investors like Walter Schloss are so risk averse that he diversified in hundred value stocks.
AND Buffet also said if he is out looking for a 7 footer a guy with a height of 5 foot 5 only won't do.
Risk is not knowing what you are doing.
Risk is also too much concentration and put all eggs in only one basket.
There is always a black Swan event unknown and unseen. So nothing is set in stone. Earnings can and do evaporate. Even Value can disappear. In the 1930s even gold was outlawed in the US. And after 2 atom bombs on Japan the banana currencies became worthless overnight.
RAIDER SEE CALVIN TAN IS A GOOD SIFU FOR STOCKPICKING VALUE SELECTION ...YES SOME OF STOCKPICK MAKE NOT WORK, N U MAY GET STUCKED FOR A WHILE BUT ON THE OTHERHAND THE POSITIVE CAN ALSO CONTRIBUTE VERY BIG GAIN, THUS OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD NET POSITIVE GAIN LOH...!!
THE MOST IMPORTANTLY THE LOSSES OF CALVIN TAN STOCK IS USUALLY SMALL, WHILE THE GAIN IS EXCEPTIONAL BIG LOH...!!
I BELIEVE CALVIN TAN RECENT CALL ON SASBADI AND INSAS ARE OF HIGH QUALITY PICK LOH...!!
CALVIN TAN, MAY OR MAY NOT PUT ALOT OF MONIES ON THE STOCK HE SELECT, BUT THIS MAY NOT US FROM PUTTING MORE MONIES ON THE STOCK WE LIKE LOH....!! MOST IMPORATANTLY WE MUST ALSO DO OUR HOMEWORK TO CONFIRM & VERIFY AND WHEN IT IS WRONG WE CAN ONLY BLAME OURSELVES BCOS LACK OF FORSIGHT MAH....!!
THIS IS HOW A GOOD INVESTOR SHOULD BEHAVE AND FOR THEIR OWN GOOD LOH..!!
LASTLY U MUCH IMPROVE YOUR INVESTMENT SKILL, THATS WHY RAIDER EMPHASIS MARGIN OF SAFETY....MARGIN OF SAFETY IN ALL RAIDERS POSTING MAH..!
2019-02-04 10:45
On the contrary Raider has always done that, and make good monies using Leech Tech mah, of course must subject to high degree of due diligence of raider mah...!!
The latest stock raider bought, based on tips is insas, thanks to the compliment from sslee, it is a wonderful balance margin of safety stock...the best u can find loh....!!
Posted by 3iii > Feb 4, 2019 11:52 AM | Report Abuse
I have never invested into a stock based on tips from this forum or other forums.
Yes, often I will take a look at the fundamentals of the recommended stock but have not found them enticing enough to put my money in them.
2019-02-04 12:19
The less you respond to negative people,
the more peaceful your life will become.
2019-02-04 13:10
Those who spend their time to find faults in others,
usually spend no time to correct their own.
2019-02-04 13:11
This is a good advice loh...!!
Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Feb 4, 2019 01:10 PM | Report Abuse
The less you respond to negative people,
the more peaceful your life will become.
Zhuge_Liang
538 posts
Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Feb 4, 2019 01:11 PM | Report Abuse
Those who spend their time to find faults in others,
usually spend no time to correct their own.
2019-02-04 13:28
Don't ask a barber if you need a haircut
This is generally a fairly good advice.
2019-02-06 18:00
quote here quote there is the easy part.....execute correctly is the tough part
2019-02-07 00:41
there are instruments for margin of safety....There are called Fixed Deposits and Bonds.
2019-02-07 00:57
I think the scared scared investors sure lose money......if there are so scared, their worse nightmares will surely come true.
2019-02-07 01:00
Success formula.
For the 20+, they should invest, not trade.
Stock picking should limit to the 1%, the best of the best in terms of reputation nnd growth stories, the people and the business…..Understand the business fully…..
only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....
and if want to make a real difference, have not more than 5 stocks at a time.
Trading should only be done by the very experienced….The retired ones and the full time traders.
Then, there is the third category. Lets just call them the Contrarians. This can only be done well by very experienced people.
S = Q r
Success, S is a function of ability to execute , Q and potential gains , r, from the idea/ the investee company
The ability of the investee company to execute as well as the ability of the investor to execute. are both crucial.
2019-02-07 13:56
what is role of investment seminars and subscription service? .....none......more likely to be negative,
2019-02-07 13:57
Margin of safety investment is one of the best defensive investment strategy loh....!!
For example if u bought insas at Rm 0.67 less than 1 mth ago, the most balance margin of safety stock, u will be sitting at a 20% gain loh...!!
2019-02-08 19:28
Understanding The concept and philosophy of margin of safety investment mah ;
"The choice isn’t really between value and growth, but between value today and value tomorrow. Growth investing represents a bet on company performance that may or may not materialize in the future, while value investing is based primarily on analysis of a company’s current wealth. (19-20).
LOGICALLY MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT ARE LESS SPECULATIVE THAN GROWTH INVESTMENT LOH...!!
Establishing a healthy relationship between fundamentals — value — and price is at the core of successful investing. (24). CORRECTLOH ALOT OF PEOPLE MAEGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTMENT IS TOTALLY WRONGLOH..!!
IT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VALUE V PRICE MAH..!!
Bottom Line: there’s no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price! (25). CORRECTLOH QL PE 50X EVEN IF CO IS A BETTER THAN INSAS BUT U NEED TO BENCHMARK AGST VALUE & PRICE IN THAT CASE, INSAS STAND OUT .
Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals. (27)
Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. (27). STOCK LIKE QL AND NESTLE MOVE UP SO MUCH OVER SO MANY YRS..U SHOULD WARY ABOUT OVERVALUATION LOH...THE FACT ITS PE ABOVE 50X CONFIRM WEARINESS LOH!!
The safest and most potentially profitable thing is to buy something when no one likes it. (27). LIKE INSAS PE 6.5X NOT MANY PEOPLE LIKES & HAVE BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
Unfortunately, the greater fool theory only works until it doesn’t. Valuation eventually comes into play, and those who are holding the bag when it does have to face the music. (28). DO NOT SIMPLY CHASE MAH !!
Risk means more things can happen than will happen. (31)
The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about.(36)
IF U CHASE THERE IS A BIG POSSIBILITY OF LOSSES LOH...!!
Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgement based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value. (39). AS USUAL PEOPLE LIKE RAIDER, CALVIN TAN, SSLEE AND LENO UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF VALUE, THUS THEY PICK INSAS LOH...!!
2019-02-09 13:12
Risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. Risk avoidance, on the other hand, is likely to lead to return avoidance as well. (65)
The road to long-term investment success runs through risk control more than through aggressiveness. (66). THIS PRECISELY WHAT HAPPEN TO SIFU PHILIP LOST BIG IN AOKAM & RENONG BCOS NO RISK CONTROL LOH..!!
Most investors’ results will be determined more by how many losers they have, and how bad they are, than by the greatness of their winners. (66)
Skillful risk control is the mark of the superior investor. (660}
THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS CALVIN TAN COULD BE A BETTER AND SAFER THAN PHILIP MAH...!!
You can’t predict. You can Prepare. (67)
Most things prove to be cyclical. (67). THIS IS BCOS CALVIN TAN KNOW HOW TO DRIVE FWD, BRAKE AND REVERSE LOH..!!
Cycles will never stop occurring. If there were such a thing as a completely efficient market, and if people really made decisions in a calculating and unemotional manner, perhaps cycles (or at least their extremes) would be banished. But that’ll never be the case. (71)
When investors in general are too risk-tolerant, security prices can embody more risk than they do return. When investors are too risk-adverse, prices can offer more return than risk. (75)
The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.(80).
ALOT OF INVESTOR MISUNDERSTOOD THE KINDNESS OF CALVIN TAN RECOMMENDING QUIET, UNLOVED BORING STOCK TO I3 INVESTOR MAH
There’s only one way to describe most investors: trend followers. Superior investors are the exact opposite. (91)
The proper response lies in contrarian behavior: buy when they hate ‘em, and sell when they love ‘em. (93)
Investment success requires sticking with position made uncomfortable by their variance with popular opinion. (94)
2019-02-09 13:30
U NEED TO BE SMART AND TAKE BIGGER RISK WHEN PEOPLE ARE PANICKING LOH....!!
You want to take risk when others are fleeing from it, not when they’re competing with you to do so. (113)
High-return environments offer opportunities for generous returns through purchases at low prices, and typically these can be earned with low risk. (113). WHEN U BOUGHT AT PANIC PRICE MEANS HIGH RETURN LOW RISK MAH...!!
INSAS IS A SAFE PATIENCE BALANCE HIGH RETURN INVESTMENT MAH..!!
Patient opportunism, buttressed by a contrarian attitude and strong balance sheet, can yield amazing profits during meltdowns. (115)
There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything. (116)
We may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea where we are…..and act accordingly. (125)
INVESTMENT IS A BALANCE OF PROFIT MAKING & RISK MANAGEMENT.
Randomness contributes to (or wrecks) investment records to a degree that few people appreciate fully. As a result, the dangers that lurk in thus-far-successful strategies often are underrated. (135)
The correctness of a decision can’t be judged from the outcome. (136)
Several things go together for those who view the world as an uncertain place: healthy respect for risk; awareness that we don’t know what the future holds; an understanding that the best we can do is view the future as a probability distribution and invest accordingly; insistence on defensive investing; and emphasis on avoiding pitfalls. To me that is what thoughtful investing is all about. (140)
You can’t simultaneously go all out for both profit making and loss avoidance. Each investor has to take a position regarding these goals, and usually that requires striking a reasonable balance. (141)
2019-02-09 13:49
CONCLUSION OF AH JON CHIVO LOH....!!
Conclusion
In investing and to a large extent life, where to best apply our focus and skills depends partially on where others are applying theirs.
Everyone else, please predict quarters more, play TA etc with each other, looking at chart and computer screen all day long and focus on winning in the zero sum game. Please go find out where steel, currency, and palm oil price are. Whether it is making HBI or KNN.
Leave the rest to me!
Value investing does not work in Malaysia! Let me be the only sorchai following it!
And unlike other people, i dont need anyone supporting the price of my investments!
RAIDER TOTALLY AGREE WITH AH JON CHIVO LOH...!!
2019-02-09 18:27
Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2019 06:36 PM | Report Abuse
contrarian being right (right & non consensus) is when you know something more on the valuation of the stocks compared to the majority who cannot see it....
i3 is a good place to share it and verify if your insights is better than the consensus...
.......................
Icon and a few other sifus many times shared such insights to let themself and others in i3 gain in the process of discovering.
Philip insights so far does not appear convincing...
Cute Jon does not even have an insight...
Koon shares wrong insights and made many in i3 lost their hard earned money..
i3 is a great place to share
thank you
2019-02-09 18:37
Hi KcChongNZ,
Excellent article on MOS. Would like to get your feedback on whether this is an appropriate way to measure MOS. More particularly, if there are any other risks I'm missing (I am not familiar with the Malaysian market).
This writeup is about Mulpha. Cheers! https://sites.google.com/view/TheBadInvestor#h.p_UYnq7upShHG5
2019-07-11 17:47
MARGIN OF SAFETY BASED ON EARNINGS ARE MORE VOLATILE THAN BASED ON ASSETS VALUE LOH...!!
THATS WHY WALTER SCHOLL PREFER ASSETS VALUATION AS AN ANCHOR BASIS OF MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH..!!
EARNINGS BASIS OF MARGIN OF SAFETY, HOWEVER WILL RESULT IN FASTER BASIS OF APPRECIATION LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > Jul 10, 2019 1:26 PM | Report Abuse X
U keep quoting hengyuan for what, i already make monies on this counter....mah...!!
Yes learn from raider on hengyuan ...how to maximise gain by riding on the upside of this share & learn how to cutwin, when the tide turn and it is not on your side loh...!!
THE RIGHTFUL ADVICE SHOULD BE AS FOLLOWS LOH..!!
Posted by 3iii > Jul 10, 2019 3:53 PM | Report Abuse
raider: Son, here is this bible of investing. Read this and invest well.
raider Jr: Dad, yes. I have read this from cover to cover already. Please teach me how to find undervalued stocks, Benjamin Graham's type.
raider: Hengyuan is very undervalued at Rm 2.50. Big margin of safety. PE of 3. Look at Petdag. PE of 26x. Hengyuan is as good a business as Petdag, if not better. It should enjoy a PE the same as that of Petdag.
raider Jr: Yes, dad. After i heard from u i research & find out for myself. Do u think Rm 10.00 the intrinsic value for Hengyuan .?
raider: Son, easily at least $45. U already Buy at Rm 2.50 and now hold. You will be very rich but remember if u invest based on profit, it is highly volatile this can disappear very fast. Meanwhile u may ride the wave of upside, as long as profit remain growth.
raider Jr: Now it is Rm 10.00 should i sell dad ?.
Raider: Profit growth is it still there ?, if yes why must u sell ? u ride the wave .
raider jr: It has hit above Rm 19.50 and now fallen back to Rm 18.00 and now again crossing below Rm 15.00 should i sell ?? Hengyuan result just came out, its below expectation, should i still hold ??
raider: Get the hell out, cut your win and enjoy your fruits, do not hold hengyuan anymore, take profit quickly at any price since your sell call is triggered.
raider jr, Quickly sold hengyuan at rm 13.00 {even it has further fallen from Rm 15.00 to Rm 13.00}, he just make a tidy profit of rm 10.00 per share, he proud that he did not argue with his dad.
THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT, IF U STICK TO RAIDER ADVICE ON HENGYUAN U CAN STILL MAKE A TIDY PROFIT LOH...!!
WHEN YOUR ANCHOR FOR VALUATION ON HENGYUAN IS PROFIT, WHEN PROFIT GROWTH FALTER FALTER, U BETTER RUN FAST WITHOUT ARGUEMENT, IN ORDER TO PROTECT YOUR PROFIT.
DO NOT SIMPLY RUN, IF YOUR SELL MECHANISM HAS NOT BEEN TRIGGERED, U Shoould CONTINUE RIDE THE WAVE 1ST.
IF U SELL HENGYUAN AT RM 5.00 B4 SELL mechanism IS TRIGGER...U ONLY MAKE 100%, but U MISS YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE 400% WITHOUT RIDING WAVE LOH..!!
THIS IS WHAT RAIDER ADVICE TO I3 readers too. Raider ask them to run when Hengyuan is at Rm 13.00.
U need to realize the initial valuation of Rm 32 and Rm 45 no longer valid when the profit growth fell, thus the sell mechanism trigger a sell when earnings falter..!!
2019-07-12 10:00
So whenever u invest always ask yourself where is your margin safety anchored ??
Is it profit growth ??
Low PE ??
Strong Cashflow ?
Strong dividend ?
High NTA ?
Huge Hidden Reserve ??
High cash holdings ??
If the anchored u highly depended on for your initial investment falter, n no longer valid, u better run quickly & swift b4 too late loh....!!
U quickly lock in your profit & cut your losses fast loh...!!
If the sell not trigger, u hold & ride your gain loh....!!
2019-07-12 10:00
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
qqq3
its the best...and it can only come from a real expert after 60.....
2019-02-03 13:22