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Thinking of picking the biggest winners in 2014? Think first. - kcchongnz

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 24 Jan 2014, 01:29 PM
Tan KW
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kcchongnz has left a new comment on your post "Picking top performing stocks":

Thinking of picking the biggest winners in 2014? Think first. 

1) What is the chance that you are the top 4% of the luckiest lot? 
2) Do you have superior first-hand information compared with others, especially the insiders? 
3) Are you also willing to own some potential biggest losers? 
4) Do you have superior skill in predicting the future and powerful computer and exceptional chart reading skill compared to the fund managers and institutional investors? 
5) does the present environment present you with that opportunity? 
6) Do you think you can depend on your luck to do that? 

First level thinking: I am going to buy a couple of potential big winners to earn superior return. Borrow money also to leverage and amplify my return to a few hundred percent, or even thousands percent in the year. 

Second level thinking: I am going to avoid big losers from my diversified portfolio and with that hopefully I can get above average return from my portfolio. 

Making super-abnormal return is the hope of every investor. Unfortunately it would most probably remain as, hope. Hopefully it won't result in, hopeless. 

Risk and return are inseparable.

 

Posted by kcchongnz at Jan 22, 2014 06:10 PM

Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

kcchongnz

In working life, we should have positive attitude, the everything can-do attitude. Yes, working life is full of challenges, but none is insurmountable.

However, in investing, I am afraid it is the other way around. It pays to be skeptical. Acknowledge and bow to the following:

1) Market is somehow efficient to a certain extend.
2) You are not "the one" who can be better than the professionals and insiders and all others
3) The future is unknowable. Know what you don't know.
4) Investing is full of uncertainties and randomness
5) It is a jungle out there.

2014-01-22 18:59

Tang Michael

Share dabbling is luck and money make more money......if you have like me have bought dksh.....yinson.......pestech.....favco....aeon credit......cbip....you will have a wonderful yee sang.......be long term and buy more business mags to refer.....ok ????

2014-01-22 21:08

kcchongnz

First level thinking: I am going to buy a couple of potential big winners to earn superior return. Borrow money also to leverage and amplify my return to a few hundred percent, or even thousands percent in the year.

Second level thinking: I am going to avoid big losers from my diversified portfolio and with that hopefully I can get above average return from my portfolio.


So how to avoid big losers in a portfolio?

You must have a good idea of what the thing you’re considering buying is worth. There must be cash on the books and the value of the tangible assets; the ability of the company or asset to generate cash; and the potential for these things to increase.

Rather than buying based on rumours, the next "hot" stocks, and hope that others would push up the price for you to make money.

"When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'" - Charlie Munger

2014-01-24 14:30

miketyu

Mr Kcchongz,

Two of your stock picks, MFCB and Tien Wah have been sold down recently.
MFCB massively sold by one of the directors while Tien Wah sold by the Army Fund. Although the fundamentals seems has not been deteriorating, would it be the sign that insiders know something we don't?

2014-01-24 17:13

kcchongnz

Posted by miketyu > Jan 24, 2014 05:13 PM | Report Abuse
Mr Kcchongz,
Two of your stock picks, MFCB and Tien Wah have been sold down recently.
MFCB massively sold by one of the directors while Tien Wah sold by the Army Fund. Although the fundamentals seems has not been deteriorating, would it be the sign that insiders know something we don't?

First Mega First, just check the share price performance, it has risen by 23% since it was picked in less than half a year ago, whereas the KLSE gained only about 1.3% in the same period. So I guess you have no issue about its share price performance, do you?

Regarding the selling, the one selling is Lim Tian Soo,just a major shareholder. I don't see his name in the list of management. He has sold about 165,000 shares out of its indirect interest of 50m this year. Do you have an issue about that? The one who has been buying is Goh Nan Kioh, the executive chairman. So do you still have an issue about insider selling or buying?

Now for Tien Wah, its share price went up only 1.8%, still better than the KLSE of 1.3%. Ok lah isn't it?

Regarding the selling of Tien Wah by the Army fund, i don't really pay much attention. It is a big institution managed by many people, some with political and other interest. They buy and sell very often. Unless you tell me Tan Teng Boo is selling like hell, then may be I may pay some attention.

2014-01-25 10:35

miketyu

Thanks Mr Kcchongz. U have educated me to look at things at deeper perspective. I'll do more homework next time.

2014-01-25 17:04

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