SKPETRO Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ukfATE
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/ofcwwjx
My View:-
- Fair Value:
– 3-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 4.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario: 4.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad Scenario: 3.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Absolute PE:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 3.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 7.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 10.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 8.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.255) – Fair value 9.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.45): 0.065
– I won’t use Absolute EY% for this case because the valuation is too optimistic. 3-Y DCF and Absolute PE indicates that SKPETRO is undervalued.
- I am positive on SapuraKencana for its strong quality and well diversified orderbook, healthy earnings and consistent job wins.
- Many people asked me whether we should buy O&G counters now. I consider SKPETRO as part of my value investing portfolio. In my opinion, I think this is good time to accumulate O&G counters. Remember the Warren Buffett’s most famous investment sayings: "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (9 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1820653
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/skpetro-fundamental-analysis-10-dec-2014/
Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
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Created by Tan KW | Aug 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Aug 26, 2024
Read a lot of analyst reports supporting this counter when it was trading at it peak. As it falls each time we get to get good analyst reports on this counter. Now even at it lowest we still get good analyst reports. I am really confused why investors are not buying into this counter. Given it big order book and stability for many years ahead it is at a steal. It is now below RM 2.40 and yet there is not much support. Will it go any lower? I think the downside risk is very limited. I thought of buying some but am worried over their tight dividend policy. Paying only 2sen is certainly not attractive . It does not compensate for risk that we have to bear if something adverse happens like right now falling oil prices. I know this is a good counter better than some many oil and gas counters, it is just their dividend policy that is holding me back. Maybe that is the reason it is not moving up. I don't know. Anybody?
2014-12-11 17:14
What will happen if oil drop from USD60 plus to USD40 plus? I believe it is high probable.
2014-12-11 19:20
Yes SKPETRO is O&G top pick for many analysts, for many reasons based on earning prospect. However the buying mood is still something it lacked of. Never fight with market momentum, be it up or down.
Put it this way, i am confident SKPETRO is an undervalued stock. But i have no confident how long it will remain at low price, or will it down for few years?
Based on the fact today the oil price dropped so much. What was the real root cause nobody knows, there were many pointed towards production of shale gas. Was this the real reason? or is not?
Highly uncertain is the key which stop people from buying this stock. I would rather lost the opportunity to earn more in O&G rather than the sleepless night due to strong uncertainty in O&G sector. You probably not want to hear oh it dropped to $40 last night kind of shocking news, do you.
I believe mostly people buying an undervalued stock for the reason believing the situation is just temporary, eg. diseases, natural disasters etc. So if you think the low oil price today is just temporary, based on your own opinion and finding, then is the best time you start accumulate the stock.
2014-12-11 21:46
USD$50 a barrel is very likely at one point in time. very probable. I will keep some when it is near USD$2.00+ I believe it won't be long..
2014-12-11 21:46
If the oil prices fall below US$60 per barrel, it would definitely affect Putrajaya's petrol tax and the dividend to the government by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas)," added the firm. – The Edge Markets, December 11, 2014. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/malaysias-budget-deficit-to-rise-0.3-if-oil-prices-falls-to-us66-per-barrel#sthash.o6VBpovn.dpuf
2014-12-11 21:51
At 40 USD many producers , perhaps all shale producers , will be priced out. Market will find a new 'normal' from that point on.
2014-12-12 08:26
sudah lupakah
2012
ah wek bernama kencanah
kawin dengan ah beng sapulah
dan dirikan keluarga
bernama sapura-kencana PET
ah beng & ah wek berkawin dengan wang emas sejati ~RM dua ringgit dua -puluh -sen
lepas itu
wang kawin emas turun nilai ke ~RM1.95
SIKALANG
wang kawin emas ah wek & ah beng tu
bernilai BERAPAH????????
banyak susah diteka
kan???????
kerana sudah dicampur tangannya oleh
kakak amerikah, adik saudiah dan abeng russiah
(cinniah & japuniah)
bersalivah
2014-12-14 02:16
barcelona
but Why stilllll going downnnn
2014-12-11 09:46