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[转贴] LCTITAN 乐天大腾 – 2019年线上股东大会 - RH Research
LCTITAN 乐天大腾 – 2019年线上股东大会
上周五发布Q2业绩后，股价从2.30直泄至1.85。实际表现仍是亏损，不过却处于个人预期之内。
基本上是没有惊喜或惊吓，感叹市场现在才作出反应。回归价值的行情如今已在发生。这家公司还能回到以往高峰吗？来看看近期股东大会上的细节。
目前是全球排列前20位的石化企业，并放眼在2030年攀升至前7位。目标是在2024年达到60亿美金的销售额，也就是现有20亿左右的2倍。
2018年生产2.7亿吨产品，2019年产量则提高至3.1亿吨。截至今年Q1，整体产量为0.8亿。去年厂房使用率为88%，今年预计介于80-85%。
印尼LINE项目的第一阶段土地清理已完成93%，预计在今年底或者明年初才开始施工。由于疫情的关系，将对项目的进度作出调整。
被归类为“必要行业”，因此在行动封锁禁令期间并未停工。由于多个区域实施经济封锁，对经济带来巨大的伤害，整体需求无可避免的受到冲击。不过随着陆续解封，下半年的生意环境将逐渐改善。
在低油价的环境下，美国页岩油企业在价格竞争方面将落后于东南亚生产商，不过随着中国大型石化厂计划在今年启动，预计对供需平衡带来影响。
石脑油和石化产品的价差一直都是盈利表现的主要指标。以2017年为例，两者平均价差为每吨690美金，2018年为610美金，2019年和2020上半年为480美金左右。预计产品售价将在下半年适度的上涨，不过原料石脑油也是如此。
总结，LCTITAN虽然手握庞大现金，但是业绩要回到2016-2017年水平恐怕不易。
由于石化属于周期性行业，任何企业都无法控制外围因素。原料和产品价差短期内还是稳定，不过却没有惊喜。
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