Koon Yew Yin's Blog
TA is more important than FA - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Thu, 25 Feb 2021, 04:03 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Technical analysis take preference over Financial analysis.
Since the Covid 19 pandemic began about 1 year ago, the demand for gloves far exceeds supply. As a result, all the glove makers can eaily increase their selling prices to make more and more profit which should be reflected on their share prices. Initially all their share prices went up since the Covid 19 began. Unfortunately, for no good reason, their share prices have been dropping in the last 4 months. It defies investment logic. This phenomena is so rediculous.
Supermax’s 1st quarter ending September EPS was 30.58 sen. Its 2nd quarter ending Dec was 41.14 sen, totalling 71.72 sen for 1st half year. Even if the company cannot increase its selling price, its 3rd quarter EPS will be 41.14 sen and 4th quarter EPS will be 41.14 sen. Its annual EPS will be Rm 1.54. Based on PE 10, Supermax should be selling Rm 15.40 per share. Among all the glove stocks, Supermax has the best profit growth rate.
The above price chart for Supermax shows that it dropped from Rm 10.70 on 19 Oct to close at Rm 5.04, a drop more than 50% in the last 4 months despite its excellent profit growth rate.
Investors must remember that price chart takes preference over fundamtal analysis. You must sell as soon as the price chart is showing a down trend. Never buy a down trending stock even if its fundamental quality is excellent.
I learned a very expensive lesson. On hindsight, if I started to sell as soon as the price start to drop, I would have made a lot of money.
Beside Supermax all the share prices of the other glove stocks are also dropping.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 45 of 45 comments
Mea Culpa? Better late then never.
This phenomena is so rediculous. - Yes, but that is Bursa. In fact look at what happend to the short sellers in GameStop.
Imagine this situation. You aren't the only rich man in Malaysia. There is many others. And they all do the same exact thing - buy Supermax on margin.
Price begins to drop, the forced selling begins. It isn't rocket science now, is it? It is a vicious cycle.
Ironically, once all the margin players are forced out, the price may increase.
Cheers.
2021-02-25 19:15
Technical analysis is the trend that all supporters are abandoning the glove party. Pandemic ends sooner not 4 or 5 years. Of course got technical rebound but can never go up 100% to recover to RM10.00. Party over. 20 to 50% rebound possible.
2021-02-25 21:12
kyy maybe an excellent businessman, but he is definitely a lousy newbie investor. He just doesnt know how the market really works.
As the saying goes, if u make money in stock market by luck, then u will lose it all back by your incompetent.
2021-02-26 00:45
Beware of new ID comments, now lots of fake accounts created for cheering own self up, same old problems in i3
2021-02-26 10:08
old man, u said the best when u said nothing at alll.....orh orh orhh
2021-02-26 10:47
@Flying Fox - Obviously he has been dumping (with buddies) earlier. But been bluffing here. Why else has the share price been plunging?
Most importantly he stops publishing his BS everyday.
Throwing public tantrums is akin to apeing Donald Trump.
He just needs to stop.
2021-02-26 11:02
To be honest
Both are equally important
However, in order to select a good company to invest FA comes first, follows by TA to get good entry and exit price.
I think KYY is very confused.
2021-02-26 11:09
For a Geezer trader playing on big MARGIN, TA takes precedence over FA. This is because the trader is playing on borrowed money and he can't afford for the share to go down or stagnate. Geezer needs an uptrending stock moving NORTH every other day. So, Geezer has finally thrown in the towel and admitted his fatal error again. Be humble in life to reap GOOD KARMA, cheers.
2021-02-26 11:24
TA or FA , it's all speculating , betting for a desired outcome which is unknown at point of buying. Make no bones about it.
2021-02-26 13:11
Another thing is any long term investor will tell you is there is a time to take profits.
Even Warren Buffet sells positions. Long suffering Supermax investors that bought shares 2003-2008 between 9 sen and 25 sen (post split) will be selling shares slowly to pay for kids college, buy a new car, and travel to NYC once Covid is over. Even at today's share price they are sitting on huge profits.
After the 2009 H1N1 pandemic we saw a 66% pull-back in price. A conservative estimate such as this pegs the price @RM3.67.
Back in 2010-11, it took 14 months for the wash-out to occur. It's happening much faster this time, which is definately not bullish for this stock.
2021-02-26 14:03
Why keep using PE when everyone know ASP cannot sustain super profit will not last forever.
2021-02-26 15:31
hi sir, since you are so influential in Malaysian stock market, why not you be the one to complain to SC about this ridiculous manipulation?
2021-02-26 15:35
Not easy for one to admin the mistake, pride and ego.
Salute to those dare to admit to have made such not-so-intelligent decision.
2021-02-26 15:52
Wow Kyy gave up? Hmm a bit tempted to buy gloves now. I remember last time Kyy left already then the price shoot up like hell.
2021-02-26 16:04
read carefully, KYY still holding. holding power is good. heng ong huat arh!!!
2021-02-26 16:53
You see what Kyy mentioned in the article? He trying to sell if there's a chance. He not planning to hold long long 10 years like what you guys said. In short, Kyy at most is just a human.
2021-02-26 17:42
Don’t blame FA which drives value in the long run for your own ignorance. Valuation is always determined by maintainable profits in next 10 years, not next 1-2 years. It’s a basic lesson for even a beginner investor.
2021-02-26 19:12
Select stocks base on FA and entry and exit timing base on TA. Right now the FA is showing that this stock is a huge buy. Get it now and wait for next 1 year. Guarantee make more than 30% returns
2021-02-26 19:23
Chart shows zero banker for very long already. Wait till bankers at least 30percent then only enter. But then, why would you want to buy a rebound stock with resistance? Go for uptrend stock instead.
2021-02-26 21:26
Repeat
gohkimhock If TA come first, it leans more towards speculating..
26/02/2021 11:32 AM
2021-02-27 09:35
You all overlook this:
"I learned a very expensive lesson. On hindsight, if I started to sell as soon as the price start to drop, I would have made a lot of money."
You see his is not a loyal glove supporter as what you all have said. He just not going to hold long long term. He is just normal human who want to take profit if chance is there.
2021-02-27 11:57
Lol just imagine 10 years ago he is the 2nd shareholder of supermx, boss took him to look at factory. Now, having loss 90% of his wealth in dayang, he stay in condo rm20 while boss buy luxury condo in the us
2021-02-27 12:15
"fundamental quality is excellent"
supermx was one of the most overvalued stock in KLSE.
have you took your dementia medication?
2021-02-27 13:00
Yeah, Supermax boss doesn't even care to give fat divvy to shareholders! Only buy super luxury condo in US! And yet here in Malaysia, Grandpa Koon worship such director!
I mean, why didn't Grandpa Koon promote Supermax back in March 2020! Why only now!
2021-02-27 13:03
Supermax bos only go for bonus and share divvy! It's like force by bursa to do so!
2021-02-27 13:05
Still FA. Super profit not sustainable in near future. Price dropped to Forward PE.
2021-02-28 06:01
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With all due respect sir. Both chaps are equally important. One sets the destination while the other navigates to it. The key is to ensure both chaps are equally competent. cheers.
2021-02-25 17:26