李孙耀 - 李财有方专栏

借钱买股票

 

2010/03/29
 
富时隆综指又突破了1300点，有一位年轻的朋友雀跃万分，因为去年三月他用三块多的价钱买进的顶级手套，一年后的今天已经突破了13令吉，他的纸上盈利已经是1万令吉了。
 
他问我：股票增值的速度比房地产还要厉害，既然我们可以借钱来买房地产，那么，是否也可以借钱来买股票呢？
 
他计算过了，如果去年他敢借3万多令吉来买10张顶级手套，今天他就已经净赚了10万令吉。
 
根据这个逻辑，借钱买股票的确是很吸引人。但是，借钱买股票就是投机，而投机的风险却是难于估计的，就让我讲一则发生在1997年的故事。
 
1997年初，股市进入疯狂的大牛市，综合指数再次的靠近了1300点，第二交易板的股票更是疯狂，全版的股票竟然没有一只是低过10令吉的价位。
 
那时候，随便买就随便赚，几乎每个人都赚大钱，去到那里都听到有人高谈阔论股票，人人都成了股票专家。
 
人人成股票专家
 
银行和股票行也大开方便之门，鼓励投资者使用按金户口（margin account）来投机，当时的按金户口是提供一对一的便利，借钱给客户去买股票。
 
有一位资深的投资者，他的投资方法很保守，多年来只是靠投资蓝筹股就给他赚了好多钱，但是，这次的大牛市和以前有很大的不同，他投资的大蓝筹股，比如马银行，马电信，国能等等， 它们的涨幅却远远不如那些第二板的股票。
 
看到别人投机都赚大钱，而自己的投资却是赚不多，他也忍不住诱惑去开了一个按金户口。他把手上价值200万的蓝筹股都存入户口作为抵押，然后借钱来投机第二板的股票，为了谨慎起见，他不敢动用全部200万的信贷便利，只是动用其中的50万来投机而已。
 
他认为这样做肯定是很安全了，因为就算股市大跌一半，综合指数从1300点跌到650点，他的按金户口也可以平安无事，而且他也绝不相信综合指数会暴跌到 650点，所以他就放胆的去投机了。
 
但是，人算不如天算，他怎样也想不到，1997年中爆发的金融风暴会这么的恐怖，股票竟然可以暴跌八九成，连蓝筹股撑腰的综合指数也会从1300点大跌到 260点。
 
风暴来袭的时候，股市节节败退，第二板的股票跌到粉身碎骨，连带蓝筹股也暴跌了八九成，他的按金户口终于告急了，股票行催债的电话响个不停，他只好四处张罗去填这无底洞，但是还是无济于事。
 
千万不可玩margin
 
最后，当按金户口里的股票价值跌到只剩50万时，股票行就悉数把它们砍掉用来抵债，清偿了50万的债务之后，他的200多万也跟着泡汤了。
 
他的惨痛经验看起来很可怕，但是，在当时却是很普遍，几乎每个有玩按金户口的股友都经历了相同惨况，不管你的投资额是多少，只要你敢借钱来买股票，结局都是一样的：全军覆没。
 
还记得有一位股友感叹地说了一句：记得告诉子孙们，千万不可玩margin。
 

 

 

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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 15 of 15 comments

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

tic toc.. tic toc.. Ring~~~

2012-10-15 18:50

tkteoh80

千万不可玩margin!

2015-02-21 13:23

Icon8888

Nothing wrong with margin

2015-02-21 13:38

Icon8888

It is not as bad as what people told u

2015-02-21 13:40

Icon8888

Use margin to buy good stocks with strong balance sheet, low PE, good earnings viability, high dividend yield

It is safe. No problem

2015-02-21 13:42

Icon8888

Keep the Gearing level low

When crisis comes, sell let's say 10% to 15% of the shares will be sufficient to bring gearing down to very comfortable level

It is actually quite easy to manage

2015-02-21 13:45

Icon8888

The article used 1997 as example

I acknowledge 1997 will kills lot of margin users

But 1997 don't happen very often

So no need to shy away from margin just because u want to avoid 1997

2015-02-21 13:48

kcchongnz

You don't need 1997 saga to kill. Internet bubble in 2001, US sublime crisis in 2008, and even using margin in December last year can also results in margin calls and heavy losses in forced selling. Think of the buying of many oil and gas companies then; Coastal Contracts, Bumi Armada, SapuraKencana, UMWOGC etc, weren't they considered good companies, sure win stocks?

Anyone having margin financing and heavy on these not-bad-stocks would incur margin call mid last December, resulting heavy losses.

2015-02-21 17:56

ganasai

frog inside the cooking water. kikiki, history will repeat. kikiki, human natural mistake.

2015-02-21 18:50

Icon8888

Don't meant to be confrontational. I said that margin is not really that risky exactly because I didn't get margin call in 2001, 2008 and even last December. In other words, my recommendation is based on my real life experience.

Not only I didn't get margin call, I am not even CLOSED to being margin call in all three occasions

2015-02-21 19:07

Icon8888

But 1997 is different. So my stance is that margin is safe 99% of the time. EXCEPT FOR 1997

2015-02-21 19:09

Icon8888

Well, let's try to reach a middle ground : adopt good investment practices (diversify portfolio, low PE, high dividend yield, good earnings visibility) will help to mitigate the risk of margin call. Use margin only if you feel that you can handle it.

And finally :

NO MATTER HOW WELL YOU THINK YOU CAN HADLE MARGIN, YOU CANT ESCAPE 1997 UNSCATHED

2015-02-21 19:15

ganasai

1997, because a lot of people never buy share before also go in and buy. they know what is stock or not? they know what is pe or not? sorry dont know. Just know that stock market is just a bank open the door to allow you grab money only. Kikiki, uncle/auntie/ah boy/ah ma all without the knowledge cause the crisis.

2015-02-21 19:20

Ny036

There are gainer n lore in stock market. Those who pick up during meltdown in 1997 or 2008 is the real winner if they kept their share for few year. Some gain up to 1000%. The secret is timing n ability to forsight n personal control..

2015-02-21 20:27

ks55

Under no circumstance one should use OPM to buy share. Invest with your excess/idling money. If you can achieve 26% consistently for 10 years, your portfolio will go up 10 folds; for 20 years, you will achieve 100 folds. Don't be greedy, try out with 100k, in 20 years time you will have 10m.

This is the power of compounding rate. Remember Warren Buffet's first rule : Don't lose. Make less is ok.

2015-02-22 11:34

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