Investing theory 1 - ROE
Why glove QR good share price Drop? - Old Man who missed the GLOVE Boat.....
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Publish date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020, 06:34 PM
Hello there,
I am Philip. As today everyone has had a few days to digest the results of the SUPERMAX and HARTA results, the biggest and most interesting question is..
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE GLOVE STOCKS AFTER QR REPORT?
So far, many speculators and investors have been caught off guard and totally surprised at the results that came out and the share performance after that.
HARTA - announces 219 million in NET Profits, 90% growth Quarter-to-Quarter, and 133% growth Year-to-Year. Share price drops from RM20 to RM16.
SUPERMAX - announces 399 million in NET Profits, 462% growth QoQ, 2553% growth YoY. Share price drops from RM22 to RM18.
What happened? Shouldn't a stock go up after a great all time high quarter?
Not exactly.
Firstly, we have to understand the long term prospects of everything, not only short term results.
Firstly, Lets look at Comparative Valuation:
MAYBANK - 87 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 2 BILLION NET PROFIT, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 8.4 BILLION.
HAPSENG - 21 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 160 MILLION NET PROFIT, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 1.165 BILLION.
NESTLE - 33 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 186 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 672 MILLION.
PCHEM - 47.6 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 500 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 2.8 BILLION.
SUPERMAX - 24.8 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 399 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 525 MILLION.
HARTALEGA - 55.5 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 220 MILLION NP. LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 560 MILLION.
TOPGLOVE - 64.7 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 347 MILLION NP. LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 655 MILLION.
* Please note that for this analysis I am taking a few liberties like ignoring debt and borrowings in terms of valuation, the ROE or quality of earnings, and the growth runway/competition for those earnings.
However, there are a few mental models we need to take into account.
1. Assuming we are just starting in the Covid19 cycle, When will it end? As we know that sooner or later it will end, how will affect the long term growth prospects of businesses.
2. what is the affect of foreign investment on stocks listed on multiple exchanges? (supermax in hong kong, topglove in Singapore) as these adds liquidity and matured investors. Note for example the glove rally in Malaysia went earlier, larger and longer than the glove rally in Singapore. In some cases Riverstone, a major glove maker only had their stockprice climbing in mid/late May in SGX. One thing to remember: Bursa Malaysia does not work on the same precepts at NYSE or NASDAQ, just like how doing business in China is different from doing business in Malaysia and USA. BURSA is NOT NYSE.
3. Trading is the study of human emotions. Investing is the study of business prospects. This is a very important distinct difference. In the short term, stocks can go anywhere. In the long term, earnings will decide if the share price goes up or down.
Using these 3 big ideas, we dive down and try to understand why things are happening the way it is working out right now. The first question is of course: When will it end? Unfortunately, trying to predict WHEN it will end is an exercise in futility. However, what we can do is predict IF and HOW it will end, this can be done with more accuracy. To the first part, the definite answer is YES. How will it end? This is more complicated but also not hard to predict. What happens? Firstly, there will be a period of time (expectation is 1-5 years until a vaccine is found) when fear is everywhere, economies shrink, markets are in chaos, and stocks with anything to do with healthcare, social distancing tech, gold speculation (hard assets in times of chaos) will go up and down. Then you will have a few companies who will announce vaccine is near (and the speculation will ensue). Some will work, many will not, but sooner or later a major company will declare and world will accept that a working Vaccine is Found!. Things will start to go back to normal, and business with competitive advantage will win market share, while those that never had a competitive edge, will slip back into the back pages of penny stock speculation.
Knowing this will happen is easy. Trying to TIME the market is Fatal in the long term. So using the first mental model, we can have a clear understanding that in relation to glove stocks the price will go from good results to increased expectations to better results to unrealistic expectations causing bad results (in relation to unrealistic expectations).
This is where everyone gets caught.
When one has unrealistic expectations that differs from the stock performance, no matter how good the performance of the company is, people will SELL. This is why TIMING the market is so fraught with danger.
The trick to successfull investing (and trading) is to have a realistic expectation of where the business is going, and paying a fair price for it.
What is realistic for me? As someone who has held Topglove for many years now, from RM10 share split last year to RM4, and sold all at RM10.30
TOPGLOVE - RM5, 16 billion valuation, 370million annual, PE43 valuation is fair for the business dominance in the market, the ROE, the consistent growth that you can see happening for the next 10 years. how many topglove can you find in the market? Realistic Expectations? In 10 years, Topglove should be able to average 800-1 billion in earnings per year, smashing the current DCF valuation for a rock solid highly scalable company which sells the world over.
what becomes unrealistic is when valuation becomes RM24, 64.7 billion valuation, PE95 valuation because if you know that if one day there will be a vaccine, the demand will lessen. By how much? We can then look at an elevated realistic expectation of the market demand and use that for the next 10 years post covid. You know that gloves can make double or 3x the profits in the year to come, but after that ship sails? You will be left with multiple new companies that have suddenly built glove production capacity and fighting with you for new market share and cut throat prices. A few years of profitable COVID earnings followed by multiple years of huge compettition for market share and supply. Then you will realize what the competitive advantage of Hartalega and Topglove is throughout the years ( huge cash position, patents, and lowest scale producer). But mark my words, with China face shield market as a indicator, it will be a painful set of years to follow. This part is easy to predict. When it will Happen? No idea. Will it happen? Almost definitely (supply and demand )
So looking at comparative growth? Look to the chart above again.
If you have the money to buy a Ferrari for 64.7 billion, what kind of sportscar are you looking to go for? Assuming it doesn't break down and if the value of rare one of a kind cars increase over time, a 60 billion sportscar should get you within the range of 2.8 - 8.4 billion (horsepower).
However, cars break down and new electric cars become popular. Companies like banks will become profitable one day (after huge reset of the NPL loans and borrowings to bankrupt companies and economies in the near future post moratorium) and oil prices will not stay below $40 forever, benefitting those companies that are oversold.
Again, buy low sell high.
So, knowing that one day in the future (we can't predict when the rain will come, but we can build that roof over our heads) will come, all you can do is BUY LOW SELL HIGH. In this case invest in low priced BLUE CHIP STOCKS. So what happened with the recent huge selloff of the stock market of glove stocks? A cooldown of the shares? A profit taking by people who made millions playing the glove stocks?
Who knows? Who cares? In the short term there can be thousands of reasons why all these things are happening. BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER? SELL HIGHER BUY BACK HIGH? Its a confusing attack of information, which NO ONE can predict.
In the long term the answer is simple:
Most of them are will be SELLING HIGH, to BUY LOW. Timing this market or frontrunning everyone? Very stressful, almost impossible if you dont have a huge pool of data to work with and tons of data engineers to help you collect and sort important information, and scrub anomalies. Not impossible. But very, very hard. There is a reason why most of the traders (80%) that use IB, Thinkorswim, RobinHood etc ALL lose money in their first years.
So the simple answer to why the share prices crashed after an excellent QR? FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT TAKING, CONTRA, VACCINE. WHO KNOWS? Why should you care unless you BOUGHT HIGH something you didn't understand.
One last mental model to consider,
"The highest risk is not when stock price is at its lowest, it is at its highest and everyone is full of optimism in the market that risk is highest. The lowest risk is then when the stock price is at its lowest, when no one wants to even look at the business, and when everyone is looking to sell. All you have to ask yourself is this: Is this TEMPORARY or PERMANENT?" Making a profit has nothing to do with risk, you can gamble your life savings all on red and double your money, but it doesn't make it less risky. In fact, building risky habits will hurt you in the long run.
I hope this Covid19 stock market experience has given you some exciting lessons, and I hope you learn something new today.
P.S. I am trying something new as the collection of mental models (important big picture concepts that is easily understood by everyone that we can use to make important decisions), in the future I will start to highlight these mental models in blue, so we can start to learn how to make useful decisions and avoid emotional and greedy ones.
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 36 of 36 comments
Philip ( buy what you understand)
TP price actually means take profit price. The question is how do you define the take profit level in the guest place?
Target price is based on short term valuation? How does one even do valuation short term?
It's like solving a sudoku puzzle when you only have 3 numbers.
2020-08-14 22:28
Gold rush to 2000 usd per ounce it’s soon or later will go down anyway then why market still want to buy in ?
2020-08-15 00:38
all insider trading,before results out insiders already bought a lot.after results out they sell
2020-08-15 00:40
No bull in any commodity will last for ever soon or later will come down but market will move together will the raise and adjust later when demand is less, author is acting and seeing thing like a Buddha which shouldn’t actually involve in the investment as many thing will go round and round then you will find nothing that you can invest. Glove company who are making money this round will not kept the earning as donations to themselves but rather will go thru expansion and diversified to increase revenue and that is the valuations come about..
2020-08-15 00:50
Philip ( buy what you understand)
What are you trying to say look? You are going round and round I don't really understand.
2020-08-15 06:36
You being acting too rational, in market any kind of bull market also never last too long be it properties, gold, oil, palm oil and etc and they don’t even last more than 1 years . If luckily you has early position in one of it, and you logical and rational mind will make you sold your position even before it’s fully run out..your assumptions on few quarters of good result doesn’t justify what if this pandemic drag for 1-2 years or even longer you never know right ?
2020-08-15 07:33
Good morning Philip,
You look too far and too long and forget all the IB analyst need to do their report every quarter base on result from quarter to quarter. So what do you expect?
Just admit you sold your Topglove too early and move on and no need to write long long to lecture every IB in the town.
Everyone know nothing is permanent so enjoy while you can.
2020-08-15 07:46
Philip finally can sleep a bit better this few days....
Feeling great right?
2020-08-15 08:55
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600329595.jsp
have to go thru the above as well to have a more balance view lah
2020-08-15 09:07
maybe Philip is a good long term investor...maybe... i m not sure...
But he is certainly a lousy trader loh...
2020-08-15 09:09
n he is also an idiot for not having any clue what is happening in the real world n stock mkt......
read more investment books lah.....lol
2020-08-15 09:12
Whats stocks can post great results and a strong uptrend as what currently happened to gloves?
High PE was market expectations of its earnings peformance 6 months to 1 years down the road.
2020-08-15 09:23
In investment world, nothing is totally right or wrong. In order to convince public and general investors, result performance driven by facts, figure and return of profit are the good proven result. Sadly, over the many years, all mutual funds in the market perform so badly, the best get 8% to 10% yearly in good bull market. Then try to promote figure manipulation, lied to client investors stated earned 50%+ gain over 5 years in total.. Wah, sound like alot.. but in reality.. divide by 5 years compounding rate, each years get 5 to 7% yearly only as it compound over 5 yearly that also if can perform the best.
When economy goes down like this round mid Mar'20 Covid19 issue, all my investor friends put in Philip, Public mutual or insurance investment fund, total capital paper loss 30% to 50% due to this pandemic crisis. I understand MCO lock down & pandemic cause global stock market shock and stock price crash, but the silly here is, even after July'20 till now, with all good tech, glove or health counters share price climb back to historical high, yet these mutual fund still reporting lose -3% to break even of their total capital. How can this be happen? Market in bull period now, yet those so called professional fund mgr unable to capitalize this bull opportunity, still can lose or break even. That's really a big problem in mutual fund mgmt system..
Entire world Fed, center banking institution, leaders & politicians are printing money to stimulate the economy, yet fund mgr still cannot perform and deliver good return profit to client? How can you expect to convince your normal client retailer to trust or support you? Result not justify your voice & perfomance.
2020-08-15 11:32
This i will tend to agree with Philip, although he sold his topgloves too early at around Rm 8.00 loh...!!
The best decision for gloves investors now, are just cautiously sell b4 too late mah.....!!
2020-08-15 14:40
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Sorry I don't need to run classes, as anyone who has been in using investor.com knows.
The intelligent stock sharing of the investors in my discussion group has already made me more than enough return on my investment value.
You seem to have just started your investment journey.
Good luck.
>>>>>>>>>>
vampires666 philips full of nonsense...
end of the day wanna promote your telegram and classes... puiiiii
15/08/2020 1:38 PM
2020-08-15 16:54
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Don't worry sslee, I have already made many multiples on my investment in topglove, while you are still stuck in your jaks and Insas after 3 years no results to show.
There is your portfolio, and there is my long term portfolio.
Why are you still commenting? Why don't you explain why your Insas with it's huge cash is still trying to cheat investors by doing cash raising rps with yearly dividend instead of giving dividend and cash back to investors? Why are they raising so much cash when they already have so much cash?
Maybe you can start finding out and answering your own questions before questioning others.
>>>>>>>>
Sslee Good morning Philip,
You look too far and too long and forget all the IB analyst need to do their report every quarter base on result from quarter to quarter. So what do you expect?
Just admit you sold your Topglove too early and move on and no need to write long long to lecture every IB in the town.
Everyone know nothing is permanent so enjoy while you can.
15/08/2020 7:46 AM
2020-08-15 16:59
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Did you even read my article? No one can know when the epidemic will end. But the simple fact remains, even if covid lasts for 5 years, and every year they earn their maximum profit and assuming no other competitors start building glove making capacity and asp goes up to the maximum value, there is still a limit to production. So look at a company like topglove for example, let's say they make 4 billion in earnings every year for 5 years, which is 10x historical, they are still looking to make 20 billion in earnings. After 5 years still covid continues? If you think rationally, a 67 billion ringgit market cap for a business that will be flooded with competitors and analyst saying it will go to 100 billion?, Do you really think investing at such a price would even be feasible, when you know the growth will slow down?
It's not about when but understanding how it will end that is the part about investing.
It doesn't matter if you are early or late, as long as you are right.
>>>>>>>>>>
Vc Looi You being acting too rational, in market any kind of bull market also never last too long be it properties, gold, oil, palm oil and etc and they don’t even last more than 1 years . If luckily you has early position in one of it, and you logical and rational mind will make you sold your position even before it’s fully run out..your assumptions on few quarters of good result doesn’t justify what if this pandemic drag for 1-2 years or even longer you never know right ?
15/08/2020 7:33 AM
2020-08-15 17:08
This is the new normal whether you like it or not. Sorry to say that this is not a one-off event that causes one-off surge in profit. This demand is here to stay.
The pandemic has made a lot of people wake up to realise the need to have sufficient stockpiles of medical supplies. Every country in the world, rich or poor needs sufficient stockpiles. Now even France, Germany and Spain are having second waves. The richest countries in Europe!
Even after Covid the awareness will be there in preparation for the next pandemic. Nobody thought that the virus will still be here in Aug when it started in Feb-Mar but look where we are. And by next year when you thought everyone should be safe after being vaccinated, you will be surprised that Covid is still a problem.
Even the broadband technician who came to my house to fix the internet was wearing gloves. I won't be surprised if more and more non-medical practitioners start to wear gloves. You already see it in F&B and the services sector.
Just like to Internet that caused FB, AMZN and GOOGL to become some of the most valuable companies, so will this. So Philip you think you are rationale but in reality you are blind. Stick to your QL.
2020-08-15 17:11
>>>>>
So the simple answer to why the share prices crashed after an excellent QR? FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT TAKING, CONTRA, VACCINE. WHO KNOWS? Why should you care unless you BOUGHT HIGH something you didn't understand.
>>>>>
exactly, no one will knows why... according to KYY, investment bankers "pakat' to sell down the glove stocks all in tandem to scare you so that they can buy cheap again :) he might be right you know, monitoring the very strange live price action for these stocks nowadays....and also since short selling ban is in effect right, who knows what kind of stunts people does now to buy cheap? lol....
a lot of people has been offering opinions on buy or sell, and i agree with Philip - we should not panic - no FOMO panic buys at the high AND also, please, NO PANIC SELL when some tom dick and nancy shouting Vaccine!Vaccine! you must remember the reason why you buy and when you intended to sell in the first place.... and how about a third option? HOLD ....... i checked some of Philip's sell criteria : - (for example in my case of Top GLove)
-has the market changed? - checked, market is actually better for the company
-has the company's fundamental changed? checked, fundamental couldn't have been better now
-did i do my homework and check the results and financials so everything is in order? checked, record profit and collecting cash like scooping squids...
-how about buying price? checked, average cost at RM3.68...
so my conclusion - i HOLD, no reason to sell, yet..... besides, what to buy if i sell? so many rubbish companies in the market right now that won't even make any money for the next 2 years under covid.....
for those buying price lower than the market price now, may i suggest to you the 3rd option - HOLD?..... Tan Sri just spent >RM50mil of his own money to buy in more stocks this week, so perhaps have a little fate in him? if he burns i don't mind burning with him, anyway my capital is nothing compares to his.....
2020-08-16 02:27
Haha
Market is like herd mentality. You sell, I sell. You buy, I buy.
So if you sell can consider buying QL, Gkent and Serbak or Kpower or SCIB.
2020-08-16 08:12
Sslee if u wanna make money fm stock mkt learn how stock mkt works..not
fighting with the management of the co ...every now n then...
But of course if u enjoy more by doing so than making money then continue loh
2020-08-16 10:25
So many dupe accounts here with worthless comments, eg vampires666, potentialphilipsil & Aaron__tan
2020-08-16 12:36
On the topic of gloves stocks, my 2 cents view is that sales of gloves will sustain, in the short term at least.
However, it is unclear if the extraordinary demand for glove stock will sustain.
Judging Supermax, for example, an increase of 2000%+ in profit is great news for the stock and investors should feel hyper optimistic. Share price should appreciate more, but share price tanked instead.
2020-08-16 12:43
if pandemic stay for 5 years, and topglove earn 20 billions for 5 years period, and your assumption is the boss will kept the money earn as donations for themselve ? just assume that boss use that 20 billions to do some other business can that get valuations of 200 billions ?
2020-08-16 13:31
Yes assume best scenario... topgloves Rm 20b over 5 years...but u r paying Rm 60b...wor??
After 5 yrs u only earn Rm 20b....so u still cannot get back your rm 60b capital mah...!!
U cannot assume the boss can reinvest & earn 100% pa loh...what if the boss reinvest like icap ttb...put in FD earning 2% pa leh ?
Posted by Vc Looi > Aug 16, 2020 1:31 PM | Report Abuse
if pandemic stay for 5 years, and topglove earn 20 billions for 5 years period, and your assumption is the boss will kept the money earn as donations for themselve ? just assume that boss use that 20 billions to do some other business can that get valuations of 200 billions ?
2020-08-16 13:42
stockraider ? are you first day in investment ? 20 billions real cash investment can create Grab which whole valuations of 500 billions..icap is real kiasu fund manager which miss out all bull and bear, that why kept in FD.
2020-08-16 13:57
HOW U KNOW THAT TOPGLOVES WEE WOULD NOT TURN OUT TO BE A PONDAN, JUST LIKE TTB OF ICAP LEH ?
Posted by Vc Looi > Aug 16, 2020 1:57 PM | Report Abuse
stockraider ? are you first day in investment ? 20 billions real cash investment can create Grab which whole valuations of 500 billions..icap is real kiasu fund manager which miss out all bull and bear, that why kept in FD.
2020-08-16 16:17
wah Sslee now promoting Philip stocks, so you must be a 'mini-Philip' now?lol no Insas here confirmed lo you mini-Philip hahahahaha......
>>>>>>
Sslee Haha
Market is like herd mentality. You sell, I sell. You buy, I buy.
So if you sell can consider buying QL, Gkent and Serbak or Kpower or SCIB.
16/08/2020 8:12 AM
2020-08-16 23:06
vaccine or no vaccine, make your own decision buy sell or hold and live with it....
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/14/coronavirus-supplies-ppe-shortage-fda-395560
2020-08-16 23:07
U need to understand this loh...!!
Dali is wrong mah...!!
The broker institute this no contra guideline to protect the glove traders & investors and remisier mah..if there is a crash alot of people will go bankrupt mah..!!
Better to let some air out 1st mah...!!
If the purchasers are so confident perhaps they should use their own cash to buy...why need to use remisier limit or margin and endanger much more people to the euphoria leh ?...!!
The brokers are right to institute pre emptive strike loh...!!
Posted by stockraider > Aug 17, 2020 12:33 AM | Report Abuse X
This stupid dali say gloves being a commodity they are sign of danger then why he do not allow the brokers to steer away from danger leh ??
I think people should be rational and allow the brokers to take preventive action mah...!!
This will reduce sharp systematic risk mah...!!
2020-08-17 00:38
U should expect by November cansino vaccine will roll out in Msian market loh....!!
The distributor is Solution mah..!
COVID-19: Indonesia terima vaksin dari China mulai November
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JAKARTA: Indonesia dijangka menerima bekalan vaksin COVID-19 daripada China bermula November ini berikutan persetujuan syarikat biofarmaseutikal China, Sinovac Biotech (Sinovac) membekalkan 50 juta dos vaksin kepada negara itu.
Bekalan vaksin CoronaVac itu akan tiba secara berperingkat mulai November ini hingga Mac tahun depan dengan anggaran 10 juta dos vaksin dibekalkan setiap bulan
2020-08-22 13:26
ok loh...!! you say like that you win liao lo..!!
congratulations lo..!!
aiya..!!
huhu..!!
Posted by stockraider > Aug 22, 2020 2:10 PM | Report Abuse
So make your monies better run b4 too late loh...!!
Let the greedy sochais hold the glove bags loh...!!
Glove story ending...vaccine coming mah....!!
2020-08-22 14:21
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Jack Khan
I know what you are saying but you must not confuse target price and stock valuation price!
Target price is mean to be short term valuation for the share price to hit the say target but not mean to stay for long period of time! (A lot of time it just reach short of the TP. Very risky but achievable)
Stock valuation price should be view and Stock price in normal trading without bias of short term benefit(such as favourable market condition) I think this is what philip looking at most of the time. (Very safe but still have risk)
2020-08-14 21:16