Investing theory 1 - ROE
BOOKS TO READ or HOW TO CHANGE YOUR LIFE OVER THE WEEKEND.
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Publish date: Sat, 23 Feb 2019, 08:57 AM
“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time -- none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads--and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”
― Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger
I find that Charlie munger is one of the funniest and coolest people I have ever seen. His wit is incredible.
All I have to say is read this book:
(for those who can't afford to buy the book: here is it. https://mega.nz/#!3gZQAKaQ!85qVu-tenWiHLzEaGpa2bvkk4nC3GtUxax6_AOtHMlI
Don't forget to buy copies and pass it around when you get rich)
SOME BASIC SUMMARY OF THINGS TO GRASP.
I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody’s that smart…”
Munger advises you understand the ‘BIG IDEAS’ from a wide range of subjects – from philosophy, science, physics, investing, and so on. This ‘latticework’ of mental models will help you come to correct conclusions by viewing the problem from multiple vantage points.
“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.
You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience – both vicarious and direct – on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and fail in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.”
As this quote suggests, Munger relied heavily on mental models in his pursuit to understand the world around him. Munger thought it was important to understand the “big ideas” from the “big disciplines,” and generalize from there:
“You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely – all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model – economics, for example – and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.”
In investing, basically what he means is you need to understand the overall business first, ALL of its peers, where the industry itself is going, and start to generalize certain concepts from there. If you look at a business and only see SHARE PRICE, you will start to dive down only into TECHNICAL ANALAYSIS and put everything in that scheme, with disastrous results (buying high selling higher, momentum investing into a sudden correction). If you look at the inverse and only see RISK AVERSION, then you will dive down only into margin of safety and only see net assets and liquidation returns, not caring what the business is actually doing with the asset performance itself. And if you look in the middle and see only VALUE INVESTING in vaccum, then you only close your mind from multiple possibilities and only see simple things like price to earnings, debt to equity, free cash flow and book value, not realizing that buying average companies for wonderful prices is subpar to buying wonderful companies for fair prices.
WHO IS CHARLIE MUNGER?
I'll let his partner in crime describe it himself:
Charlie Straightens Me Out
My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance. Even then, however, I made a few exceptions to cigar butts, the most important being GEICO. Thanks to a 1951 conversation I had with Lorimer Davidson, a wonderful man who later became CEO of the company, I learned that GEICO was a terrific business and promptly put 65% of my $9,800 net worth into its shares.
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.
In addition, though marginal businesses purchased at cheap prices may be attractive as short-term investments, they are the wrong foundation on which to build a large and enduring enterprise. Selecting a marriage partner clearly requires more demanding criteria than does dating. (Berkshire, it should be noted, would have been a highly satisfactory “date”: If we had taken Seabury Stanton’s $11.375 offer for our shares, BPL’s weighted annual return on its Berkshire investment would have been about 40%.)
************
It took Charlie Munger to break my cigar-butt habits and set the course for building a business that could combine huge size with satisfactory profits. Charlie had grown up a few hundred feet from where I now live and as a youth had worked, as did I, in my grandfather’s grocery store. Nevertheless, it was 1959 before I met Charlie, long after he had left Omaha to make Los Angeles his home. I was then 28 and he was 35. The Omaha doctor who introduced us predicted that we would hit it off – and we did.
If you’ve attended our annual meetings, you know Charlie has a wide-ranging brilliance, a prodigious memory, and some firm opinions. I’m not exactly wishy-washy myself, and we sometimes don’t agree. In 56 years, however, we’ve never had an argument. When we differ, Charlie usually ends the conversation by saying: “Warren, think it over and you’ll agree with me because you’re smart and I’m right.”
What most of you do not know about Charlie is that architecture is among his passions. Though he began his career as a practicing lawyer (with his time billed at $15 per hour), Charlie made his first real money in his 30s by designing and building five apartment projects near Los Angeles. Concurrently, he designed the house that he lives in today – some 55 years later. (Like me, Charlie can’t be budged if he is happy in his surroundings.) In recent years, Charlie has designed large dorm complexes at Stanford and the University of Michigan and today, at age 91, is working on another major project.
From my perspective, though, Charlie’s most important architectural feat was the design of today’s Berkshire. The blueprint he gave me was simple: Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.
Altering my behavior is not an easy task (ask my family). I had enjoyed reasonable success without Charlie’s input, so why should I listen to a lawyer who had never spent a day in business school (when – ahem – I had attended three). But Charlie never tired of repeating his maxims about business and investing to me, and his logic was irrefutable. Consequently, Berkshire has been built to Charlie’s blueprint. My role has been that of general contractor, with the CEOs of Berkshire’s subsidiaries doing the real work as sub-contractors.
The year 1972 was a turning point for Berkshire (though not without occasional backsliding on my part – remember my 1975 purchase of Waumbec). We had the opportunity then to buy See’s Candy for Blue Chip Stamps, a company in which Charlie, I and Berkshire had major stakes, and which was later merged into Berkshire. See’s was a legendary West Coast manufacturer and retailer of boxed chocolates, then annually earning about $4 million pre-tax while utilizing only $8 million of net tangible assets. Moreover, the company had a huge asset that did not appear on its balance sheet: a broad and durable competitive advantage that gave it significant pricing power. That strength was virtually certain to give See’s major gains in earnings over time. Better yet, these would materialize with only minor amounts of incremental investment. In other words, See’s could be expected to gush cash for decades to come.
The family controlling See’s wanted $30 million for the business, and Charlie rightly said it was worth that much. But I didn’t want to pay more than $25 million and wasn’t all that enthusiastic even at that figure. (A price that was three times NET TANGIBLE ASSETS made me gulp.) My misguided caution could have scuttled a terrific purchase. But, luckily, the sellers decided to take our $25 million bid.
To date, See’s has earned $1.9 billion pre-tax, with its growth having required added investment of only $40 million. See’s has thus been able to distribute huge sums that have helped Berkshire buy other businesses that, in turn, have themselves produced large distributable profits. (Envision rabbits breeding.) Additionally, through watching See’s in action, I gained a business education about the value of powerful brands that opened my eyes to many other profitable investments.
************
I hope you learned something,
Philip
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 44 of 44 comments
An excellent book with worldly wisdom for good living and rewarding investing.
2019-02-23 12:43
Dear all,
I am not a very keen reader on Investment books as I prefer to read books on spirituality and biography.
I can recommend below book to you so that you can live a happy and balance life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Now
The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment
By: Eckhart Tolle
The book draws from a variety of "spiritual traditions",[5] and has been described by one reviewer as "Buddhism mixed with mysticism and a few references to Jesus Christ, a sort of New Age re-working of Zen."[6] It uses these traditions to describe a "belief system based on living in the present moment".[7] Its core message is that people's emotional problems are rooted in their identification with their minds.[8] The author writes that an individual should be aware of their "present moment" instead of losing themselves in worry and anxiety about the past or future.[2]
According to the book, only the present moment is important,[5] and both an individual's past and future is created by their thoughts.[6] The author maintains that people's insistence that they have control of their life is an illusion "that only brings pain".[5] The book also describes methods of relaxation and meditation to aid readers in anchoring themselves in the present.[5] These suggestions include slowing down life by avoiding multi-tasking, spending time in nature, and letting go of worries about the future.[9] Some of the concepts contained in The Power of Now, such as the human ego and its negative effects on happiness, are further elaborated in the author's later books, in particular A New Earth: Awakening to Your Life's Purpose (2005).[7]
To make the journey into The Power of Now we will need to leave our analytical mind and its false created self, the ego, behind. Although the journey is challenging, Eckhart Tolle offers simple language and a question and answer format to show us how to silence our thoughts and create a liberated life.
Surrender to the present moment, where problems do not exist. It is here we find our joy, are able to embrace our true selves and discover that we are already complete and perfect. If we are able to be fully present and take each step in the Now we will be opening ourselves to the transforming experience of The Power of Now.
Thank you
2019-02-23 15:19
Dear Sslee,
My fellow in engineering,
HERE's to make easy MONEY in stocks EVERY YR in Msia, mostly from plc by those bosses from boh.tak.chet university.
Tis Msia not U.S.A. where talents r proven definitely only from IVY league biz school UNI.
KEY:
there r few STOCKS will fly like crazzzy every yr in KLSE.
WE in i3, must make MONEY in those
TOGETHER n MORE ...
2019-02-23 15:31
Casino Bursa Malaysia, no place for books. Just make your bet, pick popular counter, buy it, pray it goes up. Repeat
2019-02-23 20:12
Sslee if you are not a keen reader or intent in widening your investing knowledge, why do you even bother buying stocks? It will lose you money in the long run if you have no idea what you are doing.
I would advise you to just put your money in the fixed deposit and pick a quiet temple somewhere you no longer need money.
2019-02-23 21:01
I thought i3 was an investing forum? It is funny how word information gets passed around.
2019-02-23 21:02
In some religion, there's something called creating your own world, something like that, u redefine certain things, that way it takes away lots of problems by defining what is what,what should be, what shouldn't be. But this is what is called bcoz u can't find an answer, so you create or redefine certain things. Is it the truth, I can't be sure, but based on what I've seen they redefine or define certain things thus eliminating the obstacles by cutting it off.
2019-02-23 21:21
after the first person created the definition, others follow, things became easier for them but they may lose the understanding of the first person and something different might be experience is the first, thet truth or the later is the truth, is hard to say, right can become wrong, wrong can become right.
2019-02-23 21:23
so if like that, what should u do, u have to experience and learn for yourself and not believe 100% what others tell you what should be. If you don't experience for yourself, u can't say is the truth bcoz others say so.
2019-02-23 21:24
the most dangerous part is when u believe in something 100%, u already created a fence, this fence will isolate you from outside.
2019-02-23 21:25
believe in something 100% without experiencing is what is called defining something regardless of whether if it is the truth or not. Take it as is.
2019-02-23 21:27
U can see this happened to many, and they are trapped. A person if he find spiritual development, he will changed, he will not do bad things, if otherwise, those are fakes, he is deceiving himself or being deceived
2019-02-23 21:29
Now we talk about faith, faith isn't something u can say I'm strong in faith, Im' 100% strong, faith comes from within, faith is slowly build up through experience in life, is like 1 step at a time, multipe events in your life, each piling up building that faith. U think u have faith, but you don't if you don't have this building process. Is all fake faith without this experiencing and learning processes, one step at all time all add up together building up that faith. Anyone who say got faith, ask yourself, did this building up process happened to you? Please, I'm not saying U pray to god, kena 4d, so yeah I experienced God. I'm talking about the things that happened in your life, what took place and things that happened later on, that were arranged to changed you.
2019-02-23 21:34
Dear Philip,
No a very keen reader of investment books and not reading investment books is totally two different things. Similarly spirituality and religion are totally two different things. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/188217.jsp
So thank you for your book recommendation. Learning how to invest is very useful to train your brain to think beyond hard figures but also deeper into business competitive advantage. I am learning investing in preparation for my life after retirement in doing something useful and interesting that can bring benefit to self and all.
Thank you
P/S: I3investor is not solely about investment but it also about social interaction, exchange of idea and for better future thus all are welcome to discuss anything under the sun.
2019-02-23 22:08
(S = Qr) Philip is a great talent in i3.
So good to have him on board.
Philip's stock selection for investing is simply superb.
I think he knows how biz works n how it can work BETTER.
BUT keep holding stocks long term without paying attention to price cycle n right timing for exit n entry can be BORING.
Every Q after QR, few select stocks will fly.
We must make those money n usually the price increase is v v explosive !
2019-02-24 05:26
Hi purebull,
That is the essence of true investing.
Investing is supposed to be boring, slow and watching paint dry.
The bigger the sums you invest, the less action you need to do, the more reading you need to have.
Action needs to be decisive, because majority of stocks will not give you good returns long term.
One of the mental models I use for stocks is the 80/20 rule. In business, 20% of the population control the other 80%. Therefore in this case, I operate on the assumption that 80% of the stocks in bursa are crap, and only 20% above average.
It makes it easy for me to just skip through a lot of financial report and start applying other mental models on the 20% to define my opportunity costs.
*****
I guess if we wanted more excitement I'd go to the casino instead.
2019-02-24 07:23
Using this theory....Growth investment in quality stock hard to come by mah....!!
Example u have about 200 stock for selection....!!
Then 80/20 criteria for affordable price loh...use are left with 40 stock universe loh...!!
Then of these stock...u need to stay on your competence...or your research do not cover so wide that means u left with 8 stocks loh..!!
The limitation of margin of safety stock investment are less constraints and more opportunity loh...!!
2019-02-24 11:06
Just because you end up buying 5 stocks doesn't mean you don't research and read in the other 2000. Oversimplification is silly.
If you run on the assumption that you can only buy 20 stocks in your lifetime, you better make sure that your investment is rock solid.
But if you are right, and it is easier to be right if you stop buying everything and choose only the wonderful companies, you will be rewarded for more than you can believe.
Put it this way, when you were in school you had like 30-40 students in class. If you could bet on which students would do well in the next exam, would you bet on the top 5 students with the best results during the last exam? Those who were the hardest working and dedicated ones?
Or would you pick all the students to do well and diversify your risks?
Or would pick the top half of the students who did reasonably well with a margin of safety?
That is what Charlie is advocating and changed the mind of Warren buffet from pure margin of safety or buying fair companies at wonderful prices to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.
Yes wonderful companies are hard to come buy, no one day it is not.
But consider this, when you do find one, you can invest big capital into that one great idea ( all your money into that one top student who did well during the last exam), knowing the chances he will do well is much higher than sharing your betting money on the middle half ( fairly smart students who can do ok).
When you have 80-99% of a sure thing, you can afford to sailang and make big money at low risk. I'm not taking free hundred ringgit, I'm talking hundreds of thousands into millions of dollars.
When you are not so sure of your investment, you will never dare to put big sums of money into a stock idea.
Just think about it: if you were sure INSAS was a wonderful company, and it will definitely go to rm3(because you think fair value is rm3), why are you buying sapura and jcy and other companies with lower opportunities? Just put all of it into INSAS and get 500% gain( from 0.60 to rm3) over 2 years.
But because you are not sure what to value, and you don't know your stock well enough, you choose to "diversify". Into sapura, etc etc etc.
Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.
I fully agree.
2019-02-24 11:28
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 24, 2019 11:28 AM | Report Abuse
Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.
===========
the academic approach is random walk theory, anyway.
and members of investing public lives in ignorance anyway......mostly.
they talk for the majority...when I talk about sailang and margin....everybody starts deleting my posts........
I guess who is more important than what ( is written)
2019-02-24 11:47
branding and growth limits....
in America, u can have See and unlimited growth....
in Malaysia, how?
2019-02-24 12:01
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 24, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse
In Malaysia....you have
-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs
- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....
who u want to be? which group u rather be?
That is not important...important is what you learn from them...everyone invest differently...got people like increased profit each quarter, got people like NTA, got people like business sense...
2019-02-24 12:33
In Malaysia....you have
-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs
- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....
who u want to be? which group u rather be?
2019-02-24 12:36
qqq3,i now have to crown you the title "PLP King of i3".You seem to enjoy plp n you seem to be proud of it.
2019-02-24 12:52
bagus.....not that I am proud of title....but what other people say don't bother me.....I am a Zen trader.....
2019-02-24 12:53
In Malaysia....you have
-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs
-the Zen traders
- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....
who u want to be? which group u rather be?
2019-02-24 12:54
and then, there are the DYFs and people attracted to DYFs........
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-mysterious-8-500--stock-gain-attracts-big-funds--big-questions-43441.html
2019-02-24 13:20
I am sure there are people creative enough to know why DYF is a good buy at this price.........
2019-02-24 13:22
He retired in 2000 to devote himself to the study of integrating Eastern traditional wisdom and modern investment, and the techniques of capital operation and game theory. Leveraging his new insight, he developed the ‘Zen & I-Ching Investment Theory,’ becoming another innovative way of investment following in the footsteps of Warren Buffet’s (sic) value investing and George Soros’s hedge fund investing.
2019-02-24 13:25
Repost from other forum:
Dear Philip,
From Warren own word: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.
Many of the retail investors in i3 are small sum investor thus nothing wrong if they follow Ben Graham’s investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices.
For my-self I only put 1/3 of my cash worth in stocks investment and I divided my stocks selection into deep value stocks, dividend stocks, trading stocks (theme play) and lately following your advice growth + dividend stock.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/business/dealbook/buffett-annual-letter-berkshire.html
The conglomerate controlled by Warren E. Buffett suffered losses of $25.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to Berkshire’s annual report that was released on Saturday.
Problems at Kraft Heinz, which on Thursday reported weak fourth-quarter earnings and a $15.4 billion write-down, also weighed on Berkshire, which owns a nearly 27 percent stake in the food company.
A word of caution keeping cash is also a form of prudent and conservative investment. Remember during the past market crash many people wish he/she had hold cash and spoil for choice to buy wonderful companies at the fraction of its price.
Thank you.
P/S: Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital. By chasing growth with borrowing money is a risk. By assuming the success story can be duplicated and scaled up in foreign countries is a dangerous thought especially bread and butter business as many countries will give priority to their own local companies for self interest and food security.
2019-02-24 14:16
There is no such thing as big sums and small sums in investing. The risk is the same with either amount.
Buying a rm0.20 cent share is the same as buying a rm20 one.
If it drops by half you lose both ways.
I would argue due to the concept of compounding long term of gains, it is far more important to invest properly with small sums where you cannot afford mistakes or loss of capital, than it is to invest large sums where you would already have more than enough to live a comfortable life.
But to each his own.
Losing 200k when you can ill afford it is more difficult than losing 2 million when you have millions to spare.
I speak from bitter experience.
2019-02-24 14:25
Aiyoh every time i see you phil you are so serious.Loose up,investing can be fun too.Come crack some jokes.
2019-02-24 15:37
By the way phil buying a 20 sen share is different than buying a 20 ringgit share in tthat every 2 sen gain is a gain of 10 %,which is far easier to achieve than a 2 ringgit gain for the 20 ringgit share.Of course you will never know this given your fascination with high priced stocks.
2019-02-24 15:45
That is where you are oh so wrong.
I have bought cheap penny shares for many years during the 90's.
And if you think that 2 dollar gain from 20 dollars is harder to get than 2 cents from 20 cents, then you really have much to learn about buying stocks.
2019-02-24 22:24
Not really phil,cos you dunno who i am,actually i did it quite often,not 10%,but 20% or more within days.Yes it is days,not years.
2019-02-25 12:58
Sure thing. I have done gains of 50-100% back then in 90's as well. But let's not talk percentages, how much is the sums? Small sums? A few thousand? Tens of thousands? How long could you keep it up? 1 month? 1 year? Sooner or later those kind of investing method sure will come back to bite the ass... I know this from bitter experience.
In the end, you know how I made big money? 10 year holdings and every quarter top up like clockwork. In QL and topglove. Never sold a single share for 10 years. Then with PBB, then with YINSON, now with PCHEM. And the biggest earner do far, STNE ( NYSE). You know how many times I cut loss? Zero.
Trust me. Anyone who tells you they can average 10-20% in days, consistently for years, reinvesting larger and larger sums, compounding all retained gains for more than 10 years all by trading short term? I call bullshit.
I try to stay away from "those" kind of people.
It just can't be done. If you could compound 20% gains in days( or even months) in larger and larger amounts day after day, year after year. Warren Buffett will hire you as the new successor to Berkshire. No questions asked.
5-50k sure, can believe. You try investing 1-10 million. Can get 20% gains in days? Do the math. In 10 years, if you could compound your gains and get your 20% in days consistently for 6 months in a year, and do it without cut loss for 10 years, you would have turned 50,000 into around 100m... Yes doubling your equity position every year. Wow.
If so, I humbly ask you to show me your portfolio and 5 year annual statements, I will hand over my entire topglove portfolio to you to invest (2 million shares reinvested since 2009 till 2019 starting from rm500k) QL stock, STNE (500k units), PCHEM. l will give it all to you, you can name any profit margin you want. Escrow account. Losses I bear. Profits you earn. I take 10% per year.
Deal? Bernie Madoff also kalah to Malaysian maestro.
2019-02-26 00:59
Btw I am interested in knowing what plp means. What does PLP stand for?
2019-02-26 01:01
PLP stands for Po Lan Pa.
It means carry balls...to flatter someone. It's hokkien dialect.
-------
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 26, 2019 01:01 AM | Report Abuse
Btw I am interested in knowing what plp means. What does PLP stand for?
2019-03-08 20:51
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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Fantastic book
I still go back to it every other month.
2019-02-23 11:14