Still looks like a technical rebound. Today we look at the black gold’s medium-term price trend – with inception marked by the high of USD76.90 on 5 Oct 2018. From that high, the commodity retraced to a low of USD42.36 on 24 Dec 2018 – with the Daily RSI reaching an oversold reading. Since then, prices have been rebounding and recently crossed above the 50-week SMA line – without showing price exhaustion signals, despite its daily RSI reaching an overbought reading. Over the next few months, we expect the commodity to trade in the sideways range of between USD42.36 and USD76.90. For now, we are keeping our short-term positive trading bias.

With no price reversal signals spotted, we continue to recommend traders stay in long positions. These were initiated at USD49.78, or the close of 8 Jan. For risk management purposes, a trailing-stop can be placed below the USD61.82 level – the low of 5 Apr.

Immediate support is set at USD58.17, which was the low of 25 Mar. This is to be followed by USD54.52, or the low of 8 Mar. On the other hand, the immediate resistance is set at USD66.86, which was the low of 7 Sep 2018. This is followed by USD70, a round figure.

Source: RHB Securities Research - 22 Apr 2019