THE answer is ‘yes’ if daily cases registered so far in August is repeated for the rest of the year.

As on Aug 25, total accumulative cases were 1,616,244 with 502,972 recorded in the first 25 days of this month and averaged 20,119 per day.

At this rate of infection, accumulative cases would reach 1,736,958 by Aug 31, 2,340,528 by Sept 30, 2,964,217 by Oct 31, 3,567,787 by Nov 30 and 4,191,476 by Dec 31.

In contrast, total COVID-19 cases for the first five months of this year were 459,347 and averaged 3,042 per day.

Although dine-ins were banned from Jan 13, infections continued to spiral.

On May 28, a total nationwide lockdown from June 1-14 was announced but instead of bringing infections under control, average daily cases increased to 5,987 in June and shot up to 11,655 in July.

However, nothing could prepare us for the shocks this month culminating with a record number of 23,564 cases on Aug 20, the very day dine-ins were allowed to prevent more food and beverage businesses from total collapse and shut down permanently.

But many eateries continued to play safe by limiting sales to takeaway or delivery, fearing that infections traced to their outlets may force them to shut completely during suspension, apart from coughing out a hefty fine that they could ill afford.

However, the authorities have no choice but to allow more nonessential sectors of the economy to open otherwise lives could also be lost from loss of livelihood while punitive measures must be taken when necessary. It was like choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea.

From January 2020 to May this year, total number of COVID-19 cases were only 572,357.

In other words, more COVID-19 cases would be recorded in this one month than 17 months put together. If remain unchecked, daily number of COVID-19 cases could surpass 30,000 a day.

Those who wish to survive this pandemic must continue to practise physical distancing, wear mask properly in public, double masking at wet markets and supermarkets, refrain from dining in at airconditioned premises and to consider prudently at open and well-ventilated eateries.

It may only be safe to dine-in when daily cases fall below 1,000 a day. In March this year, daily cases averaged 1,443 per day and dine-in was not allowed.

It has been established that the coronavirus is largely airborne and present in enclosed spaces especially in public rest rooms.

The best way to stay safe is to stay home and to walk, jog or cycle solo.

But many people are fond of exercising in pairs or groups so that they could chat or talk shop, taking for granted that healthy-looking people and their contacts are unlikely to be infected. But they could be wrong.

Mercifully, we were told that COVID-19 infectivity rate is slowing down and hopefully that is the case, but current daily cases remain extremely high.

We must not let our guard down, lest we become part of the statistics. It is no fun to be hospitalised when there is no bed or ventilator.

The sad situation is also found in many countries around the world, as many people are unable or unwilling to adjust to prolonged lockdowns.

In the end, it is not the strongest of the species that will survive, nor the most intelligent or stubborn, but those most adaptable to change.

For this, we could borrow a leaf from nature such as the African lungfish that could go into suspended animation and survive without water or food for three to five years, only to wake up after heavy rain when water floods their burrows in the mud.

If airlines and tour operators could do the same for these few years, they would surely bounce back when the time is ripe.

In July 2020, the Economic Action Council predicted that international tourism will only recover in 2024 and is on course to be proven right.

Until then, it would be pointless to look forward in continuing life from where we left off in 2019.

We must first survive this pandemic and then adjust to the new normal as COVID-19 will become endemic. It will no longer be business as usual as the only constant in life is change. – Aug 27, 2021

YS Chan is master trainer for Mesra Malaysia and an ASEAN Tourism Master Trainer. He is also a tourism and transport business consultant and writer, and researcher for the Travel Industry Occupational Framework published by the Department of Skills Development (JPK).

https://focusmalaysia.my/will-accumulative-covid-19-cases-surpass-four-million-by-year-end/