• Singapore’s five most traded upstream resource explorers currently comprise of Rex, RH Petrogas, Fortress Minerals, Golden Energy & Resources and Geo Energy. Heavy trading in Golden Energy & Resources on 28 July saw the stock displace Southern Alliance Minerals from the top five traded stocks by turnover in the 2021 YTD.
   
• Together the five stocks have averaged 195% total returns in the 2021 YTD, with returns ranging from 44% for Rex to 628% for RH Petrogas. At the same time, the five stocks that comprise both Mainboard and Catalist listings have averaged 180 day volatility of 84%, 4x that of the average STI constituent. 
   
• While the five stocks contributed 0.5% of the total turnover of all stocks listed on SGX in the YTD, this is close to double their overall market capitalisation impact. Of the five stocks, RH Petrogas has seen the most growth in daily turnover in the YTD, followed by Fortress Minerals, while daily turnover in Rex has decreased from 2020 levels. 

 
A commodity market benchmark, the S&P GSCI Index has gained 31% in USD terms in the 2021 year to 28 July, bringing the 12-month return to 57%. Over the past 12 months key drivers of commodity prices have included COVID-19 led constrained supplies, the global pace of recovery of Industrial Sectors over Consumer Sectors, agriculture stockpiling and OPEC’s supply management policies. In addition, the average daily close of the US Dollar Index at 92.0 over the past 12 months was 6.2% lower than the 98.1 average daily close for the preceding 12 months. The USD provides the benchmark price for most global commodity markets, and thus maintains a direct impact on the cost of USD-priced commodities. For instance, with the USD weakening by 7.6% to the CNY over the past 12 months, USD-priced commodities became more affordable in CNY terms, buoying demand for USD-priced commodities, which in turn helped to drive prices higher. Among the gains, Brent Crude Oil has returned to October 2018 levels and Iron Ore prices have set a new near-decade high. The gains across the various commodity groups through to June 2021 were detailed in the most recent World Bank Pink Sheet, released earlier this month. 

As detailed in recent sensitivity analyses by Rex International Holding (“Rex”) and Fortress Minerals (“Fortress”), the weakening of the USD can increase profit for commodity explorers, while the strengthening of the USD can have the opposite effect. Singapore’s five most traded upstream resource explorers are currently comprised of Rex, RH Petrogas (“RHP”), Fortress, Golden Energy & Resources (“GEAR”) and Geo Energy Resources (“Geo Energy”). As detailed in the table below, together the five stocks have averaged 195% total returns in the 2021 YTD, with returns ranging from 44% for Rex to 628% for RHP.

 Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Total Return Data as of 29 July 2021, Mkt Cap, 180D Volatility, Average Daily T/O and Net Insti Flow as of 28 July)

While the five stocks contributed 0.5% of the total turnover of all stocks listed on SGX in the 2021 year to 28 July, this is close to double their overall impact in total market capitalisation. Of the five stocks, RHP has seen the most growth in average daily turnover in the 2021 year to 28 July, followed by Fortress, GEAR and Geo Energy, with turnover growth offsetting the close to 50% decline in average daily turnover of Rex from S$7.1 million in 2020. 

On 28 July, GEAR was among the most traded Singapore-listed stocks with turnover of S$23.5 million. On 25 July, GEAR provided profit guidance for its 1HFY21 (ended 30 June), which will be released on or around 13 August. GEAR noted that based on a preliminary assessment of the Group’s unaudited financial results for 1HFY21, the Group expects to report a significant improvement in revenue and earnings for 1HFY21 as compared to 1HFY20, primarily due to the higher average selling prices arising from an increase in coal prices, as reflected in the Indonesian Coal Index 4. GEAR has an expanded suite of products, with mining concessions that are geographically distributed across different sovereign jurisdictions in Indonesia and Australia. The energy coal segment contributed 91.5% to the Group’s total revenue in FY20. Geo Energy is an integrated Indonesian coal mining group that achieved its highest revenue recorded in a quarter in its 1QFY21 (ended 31 Mar) with revenue increasing by 30% to US$115 million in 1QFY21 from US$88 million in 1QFY20. In late May, Geo Energy noted that with the global improvement in the coal industry, the Group was optimistic of the business outlook going forward (click here for more).

Rising Steel Production in China and Global Infrastructure Spend

Southern Alliance Mining currently ranks just outside the five most traded upstream explorers, and generated a 178% total return in the 2021 year to 29 July. The Catalist-listed stock has a market capitalisation of S$484 million and completes its FY21 tomorrow on 30 July. For its 1HFY21 (ended 31 Jan) Southern Alliance Mining reported a 47.0% YoY increase in net profit to RM 51.4 million. The 2020 Annual Report can be found here and a 1HFY21 Corporate Presentation can be found here. The established, high-grade iron ore producer is headquartered in Pahang, Malaysia and noted in March that iron ore demand had accelerated on the back of tight supplies, rising steel production in China and an infrastructure-led economic recovery.

On 14 July, Fortress reported record revenue of US$17.3 million for its 1QFY22 (ended 31 May) which was up 143.8% YoY and attributed to resilient demand from regional steel mill customers and a robust pricing environment with higher average realised selling price of iron ore up by 50.6% YoY to US$143.00/DMT. Fortress presently produces magnetite iron ore concentrates with TFe grade of 65.0% and above, mined from the East, Valley and West Deposits in its Bukit Besi Mine, and sells its iron ore concentrates primarily to steel mills and trading companies in Malaysia. Fortress noted it remained positive on the demand for iron ore as global economic recovery continues, supported by the scale of stimulus that has been deployed by policy makers, in addition to governments focusing on infrastructure spending to stimulate the economy (click here for more).

Key Oil Price Drivers

During the 2021 year to 28 July, Rex was recipient to S$7.2 million of net institutional inflow, and over the month of July, a 15% gain extended its year to date gain to 44%. On 5 July, Rex announced its 86.37% subsidiary, Masirah Oil Limited achieved a significant milestone in the Yumna Field, in offshore Block 50 Oman, with cumulative production exceeding 4 million stock tank barrels. The Yumna Field production rate for June 2021 averaged 11,682 stock tank barrels per day. Since the Company’s listing in July 2013, the Group has achieved four offshore discoveries, one in Oman and three in Norway. The Group also offers Rex Virtual Drilling screening services to other oil exploration companies as an additional tool to increase the success rate of finding oil. Back in March, Rex detailed oil & gas drivers for the year included impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, oil firms planning to pivot away from fossil fuel to renewables, OPEC+ production levels, robust oil demand growth in China and India and a continued lack of substitutes to power various transportation modes.

RHP noted back in May that the collective efforts of OPEC+ members toward oil rebalancing had been and will continue to be critical in providing stability and improvement to the oil markets. RHP also noted the uptick in oil prices was also attributed to the stabilising labour market and falling crude inventories in the United States, as well as the optimism of an oil demand recovery in the second half of the year with the global roll-out of COVID-19 vaccinations. At the same time, the company noted the continued overarching risks with resurging COVID-19 infections in certain countries, the pace at which vaccinations are being rolled out and the take-up rate, and the effectiveness of the vaccines against virus mutations. For its 1QFY21 (ended March 31), RHP recorded revenue of US$18.7 million, an increase of 40% YoY, mainly attributable to the higher volume of crude oil lifted in both the Kepala Burung production sharing contract (“PSC”) and the Salawati PSC, with a 9.3% increase in the average realised oil price for the period from US$54 per barrel in 1QFY20 to US$59 per barrel in 1QFY21. With the cost of sales decreasing by 15.4% in 1QFY21 YoY, the gross profit for the quarter increased from US$1.3 million in 1QFY20 to US$8.5 million in 1QFY21.

Inflation Gauging

On the inflation front, much focus has been on the potential cost-push inflation through the rise in commodity prices with the S&P GSCI Index up 15% in 2Q21, 14% in 1Q21 and 17% in 4Q20. For the month of July through to 28 July, the Index had seen less momentum, generating a flat performance. Brent Crude Oil remains near end of June levels at S$75/bbl, as do SGX TSI Iron Ore Futures, at US$190MT.