STI Books 1.2% Total Return in 1H23 as Global Growth Decelerates

MQ Trader

Publish date: Mon, 03 Jul 2023, 05:34 PM

For 1H23, the STI booked a 1.2% total return, in-line with the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index’s 1.0% total return with combined STI ETF AUM declining 4% to S$2.145 billion. While 1Q23 STI volatility was in-line with historical averages, some volatility compression in 2Q23 produced the narrowest quarterly trading range for the STI in 2Q23 since 3Q17.
STI stocks that bucked the consolidation and led the STI in 1H23 included Sembcorp, Keppel Corporation and Singapore Airlines. Outside of the STI, actively traded stocks that booked the highest total returns in 1H23 included Dyna-Mac, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group, Delfi, Food Empire Holdings, PropNex, Marco Polo Marine & Samudera Shipping Line. Dyna-Mac, Marco Polo Marine, Food Empire Holdings, in addition to Sembcorp were also among the 10 actively traded stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflows in 1H23 proportionate to their current market value.
Singapore’s earnings season is scheduled to begin in earnest in late July, beyond which STI constituents are expected to continue to take global cues, which include the scaling up of green infrastructure, the outlook for decelerating growth in 2H23, changes in regional growth dynamics (in particular China’s services-led recovery), persistent services inflation and higher interest rates in the west, geopolitical tensions and ensuing risks to financial stability.

For the first six months of 2023 (1H23), the STI declined 1.4% in price to 3,205.91, with reinvested dividends boosting the total return of Singapore’s benchmark to 1.2%. By comparison the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index booked a similar 1.0% total return, while the FTSE Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index booked a 4.2% total return over the six months. Since the end of 2019, the STI’s total return at 14.5% has doubled the total returns of both the FTSE Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index and FTSE Asia Pacific Index.

For 2Q23, the STI generated a 5.58% trading range from high-to-low, which was marginally lower than the 5.60% trading range from high-to-low in 3Q21, making it the lowest percentage trading range since the STI’s 5.05% high-to-low range in 3Q17. However, outlier performances within the Singapore stock market, saw the average total return of the 100 most traded stocks in 1H23 at 3.2% versus the median total return of 0.5%.

Combined these 100 stocks represent approximately three quarters of the total market capitalisation of the Singapore stock market, in addition to 98% of the day-to-day turnover of the stock market in 1H23. Stocks that joined that joined the 100 most traded stocks in 1H23, from ranking outside the 100 most traded in 2022, included Medtecs International Corporation, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group, Delfi, Food Empire Holdings, Thomson Medical Group, PropNex, China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation, Great Eastern Holdings, Sabana Industrial REIT and Cosco Shipping International (Singapore) Co.

Among the 100 most traded stocks in 1H23, the 15 stocks that booked the highest total returns in 1H23 are tabled below. For its 1QFY23, Dyna-Mac Holdings reported its net profit increased 107.7% YoY to S$3.9 million and as of May, the Group maintained a net order book of S$608.1 million stretching into 2025. Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group Corporation reported its 1QFY23 total comprehensive income (net of tax) was approximately RMB 398 million, an increase by RMB 196 million or 97% from 1QFY22, mainly due to changes in sales structure, with a higher proportion of sales revenue from major products with higher gross margins, which increased the overall gross margin.

15 Stocks with Highest Total Returns in 1H23 Among the 100 most traded stocks by T/O	Code	Mkt Cap ($M)	1H23 Avg Daily T/O S$M	June Px Chg %	1H23 Net Insti Flow S$M	1H23 Total Return %	5 Year Total Return %	Div. Yield %	Sector
Dyna-Mac Holdings	NO4	398	1.96	32.8	14.87	107.1	216.6	0.8	Industrials
Tianjin Pharma Da Ren Tang Grp*	T14	3,940	1.04	-5.5	41.02	94.0	156.1	7.7	Healthcare
Sembcorp Industries	U96	10,278	20.47	14.3	169.87	73.3	364.7	1.4	Utilities
Delfi	P34	788	0.98	-3.0	-4.97	71.5	26.5	3.7	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Food Empire Holdings	F03	561	0.79	5.2	7.27	67.7	82.8	4.3	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Keppel Corporation	BN4	12,216	29.42	6.3	-157.01	46.0	75.0	4.9	Industrials
PropNex	OYY	745	0.76	-2.9	-1.89	40.5	301.5	10.6	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
Marco Polo Marine	5LY	206	0.88	10.0	5.31	34.1	83.3	N/A	Industrials
Samudera Shipping Line	S56	466	4.82	-4.4	-4.82	32.5	696.5	9.0	Industrials
Singapore Airlines	C6L	21,222	45.96	11.5	113.73	29.3	3.8	5.3	Industrials
Jardine Cycle & Carriage	C07	13,754	13.59	7.6	12.94	25.8	33.0	4.3	Consumer Cyclicals
Keppel DC REIT	AJBU	3,705	11.50	3.3	35.85	25.1	94.8	4.7	REITs
Acesian Partners	5FW	24	0.55	-7.5	0.38	16.7	172.2	N/A	Industrials
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings	BS6	5,961	34.04	22.0	-16.34	14.8	293.4	3.3	Industrials
Singapore Technologies Engineering	S63	11,454	16.50	0.5	44.35	12.3	38.7	4.3	Industrials

* Note Mkt Cap and Returns in USD, while Turnover and Net Insti Flow in SGD. Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 30 June 2023)

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 30 June 2023)

Meanwhile, the 100 most actively traded stocks in 1H23 saw Prime US REIT, Manulife US REIT, Japfa, Medtecs International Corporation, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT, Rex International Holding, Yanlord Land Group, Thomson Medical Group, iFAST Corporation and Geo Energy Resources rank as laggard performers for the past six months.

1H23 Net Institutional Flows

The entire Singapore stock market booked net institutional outflows of S$2.66 billion in 1H23, led by net institutional outflows in Financial Services and REITs. However, for every eight stocks that booked net institutional outflows in 1H23, seven booked institutional inflows. At the same time, the entire Singapore stock market booked net retail inflows of S$1.48 billion in 1H23, with market makers and active traders making up the difference.

The stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflows and outflows in 1H23 are tabled below.

15 Stocks with Highest Net Insti Inflow in 1H23

Next week in Singapore, advanced 2Q23 GDP is scheduled for release. In 1Q23, Singapore’s GDP declined 0.4% QoQ and expanded 0.4% YoY following 3.6% YoY growth in 2022. In June, the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters private sector economists forecast Singapore’s GDP will grow 1.4% in 2023, and 2.5% in 2024. Within the survey, spillovers “from an external growth slowdown emerged as the most cited downside risk to the domestic outlook“ while “more robust growth in China, underpinned by economic re-opening and macroeconomic policy easing, was the most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore’s growth outlook, identified by 71% of respondents”.

The Bank of International Settlements noted in late June that “Central Banks have been tightening to bring inflation back under control as prices are rising far too fast” and the persistence of inflation in the United States has seen end of 2023 majority expectations for the Fed Funds Rate band to rise by 75bps, from 4.50% to 4.75%, to 5.25% to 5.50%. For regional growth, the BIS also projected Asia growth spillovers from a China services-driven recovery should be limited with no significant impact, because services are less tradable and more oriented towards domestic demand.

Late July through to August will be an important time for 2H23 corporate outlooks with close to 400 stocks due to report their 1HFY23. In the recent MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, 67% of the respondents who provide inputs expected corporate profits to decline YoY in 2Q23 while 22% of the respondents expect profits to remain stable. For the whole of 2023, 78% of the respondents expect corporate profitability to decline and for 2024 and 38% of respondents expect corporate profitability to improve while an equal number of respondents expect profits to decline.

The full list of 100 most traded stocks in 1H23 are tabled below.

100 Most Traded Singapore Stocks in 1H23	Code	YTD T/O S$M	1H23 Net Insti Flow S$M	Pct Chg June %	1H23 Total Return %	5 year Total Return %	Beta	Sector
DBS Group Holdings	D05	137.92	-1359.43	4.0	-3.2	51.4	1.3	Financial Services
United Overseas Bank	U11	88.13	-689.26	0.2	-6.4	31.2	1.2	Financial Services
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation	O39	61.64	-118.82	0.1	4.1	31.7	1.1	Financial Services
Singapore Telecommunications	Z74	51.94	-202.90	0.4	-2.7	1.7	0.9	Telecommunications
Singapore Airlines	C6L	45.96	113.73	11.5	29.3	3.8	1.2	Industrials
Seatrium Limited	S51	41.13	57.23	1.6	-9.4	-89.1	1.9	Industrials
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust	C38U	38.06	-102.84	-4.5	-3.9	12.5	0.8	REITs
Genting Singapore	G13	34.26	139.11	-6.9	0.3	-11.6	1.2	Consumer Cyclicals
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings	BS6	34.04	-16.34	22.0	14.8	293.4	0.8	Industrials
CapitaLand Ascendas REIT	A17U	31.67	-29.05	0.7	4.3	36.8	0.5	REITs
Keppel Corporation	BN4	29.42	-157.01	6.3	46.0	75.0	1.1	Industrials
CapitaLand Investment	9CI	25.16	-54.89	0.0	-6.2	22.1	1.1	Financial Services
Mapletree Logistics Trust	M44U	24.29	-3.57	-2.4	4.2	60.2	0.5	REITs
Wilmar International	F34	22.94	5.91	-2.8	-6.3	48.4	0.7	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Sembcorp Industries	U96	20.47	169.87	14.3	73.3	364.7	1.0	Utilities
Jardine Matheson Holdings	J36	19.21	-1.10	5.5	2.9	-4.8	0.8	Industrials
SATS	S58	17.49	-65.96	0.0	-3.9	-41.3	1.3	Industrials
Thai Beverage PCL	Y92	16.94	-57.03	3.6	-12.3	-7.1	1.2	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Singapore Exchange	S68	16.79	77.16	3.6	9.2	61.6	0.4	Financial Services
Singapore Tech Engineering	S63	16.50	44.35	0.5	12.3	38.7	0.8	Industrials
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust	N2IU	16.32	-39.75	-1.8	-0.4	29.9	0.7	REITs
Venture Corporation	V03	14.86	-79.20	-3.0	-11.1	1.9	0.7	Technology
City Developments	C09	13.84	-147.21	-0.4	-16.5	-29.5	1.3	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
Jardine Cycle & Carriage	C07	13.59	12.94	7.6	25.8	33.0	1.0	Consumer Cyclicals
Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust	BUOU	12.38	2.24	0.8	10.7	56.7	0.9	REITs
Keppel DC REIT	AJBU	11.50	35.85	3.3	25.1	94.8	0.1	REITs
Mapletree Industrial Trust	ME8U	10.61	-24.55	-2.6	3.2	46.8	0.3	REITs
Suntec REIT	T82U	10.58	-138.79	-1.5	-4.0	-4.0	0.9	REITs
Hongkong Land Holdings	H78	10.37	-12.14	-9.1	-12.0	-31.7	1.0	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
ComfortDelGro Corporation	C52	8.89	-44.33	5.5	-2.3	-39.9	1.1	Industrials
Keppel REIT	K71U	7.99	-32.73	3.4	0.8	0.5	0.7	REITs
CapitaLand Ascott Trust	HMN	6.84	17.00	1.9	4.9	20.8	1.2	REITs
UOL Group	U14	6.78	2.53	1.1	-2.0	-5.6	0.9	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
UMS Holdings	558	6.63	-3.18	0.0	-8.4	99.9	1.4	Technology
Frasers Centrepoint Trust	J69U	6.15	5.16	2.8	7.2	27.5	0.5	REITs
AEM Holdings	AWX	6.06	41.87	3.1	9.7	275.7	1.2	Technology
Lendlease Global Commercial REIT	JYEU	5.47	-57.07	-0.8	-3.2	-11.2	1.1	REITs
Golden Agri-Resources	E5H	5.13	27.12	-7.5	1.7	-2.4	1.0	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Samudera Shipping Line	S56	4.82	-4.82	-4.4	32.5	696.5	1.5	Industrials
Frencken Group	E28	4.75	-4.24	5.3	-1.4	125.0	1.5	Technology
Nanofilm Technologies International	MZH	4.20	5.29	-8.2	-2.2	-52.8	0.8	Technology
First Resources	EB5	4.14	-6.54	-7.9	2.2	7.7	1.1	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
ESR-Logos REIT	J91U	3.66	8.56	1.5	-4.4	-5.3	1.3	REITs
Yangzijiang Financial Holding	YF8	3.66	14.24	1.5	0.5	-42.5	0.7	Financial Services
CapitaLand China Trust	AU8U	3.58	6.12	2.0	-6.3	-7.1	0.7	REITs
Keppel Infrastructure Trust	A7RU	3.54	-26.12	5.2	0.6	42.4	0.5	Utilities
Sheng Siong Group	OV8	3.45	8.27	1.2	1.1	84.1	0.1	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Olam Group	VC2	3.39	-14.41	-2.1	-2.1	-16.1	0.8	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	2.80	-7.52	-1.2	6.1	52.1	0.2	Telecommunications
Rex International Holding	5WH	2.42	-5.57	-7.3	-27.3	255.3	1.9	Energy/ Oil & Gas
Raffles Medical Group	BSL	2.36	18.88	4.6	-0.2	53.0	0.8	Healthcare
CapitaLand India Trust	CY6U	2.33	-11.33	8.4	5.2	52.2	0.5	REITs
NIO Inc	NIO	2.20	0.36	26.1	-5.2	-44.6	2.0	Consumer Cyclicals
Golden Energy and Resources	AUE	2.15	31.39	-15.9	1.3	143.2	0.6	Energy/ Oil & Gas
Haw Par Corporation	H02	2.11	-22.78	1.1	-0.9	-15.9	0.6	Healthcare
Best World International	CGN	2.07	23.60	-1.1	2.8	11.9	1.2	Consumer Cyclicals
Dyna-Mac Holdings	NO4	1.96	14.87	32.8	107.1	216.6	0.8	Industrials
CDL Hospitality Trusts	J85	1.94	-0.53	5.2	0.3	-4.0	1.5	REITs
AIMS APAC REIT	O5RU	1.88	-3.54	-5.2	5.6	28.7	0.6	REITs
DFI Retail Group Holdings	D01	1.86	17.07	-2.1	-5.5	-63.4	0.4	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Digital Core REIT	DCRU	1.78	-9.64	13.1	-10.9	-50.1	1.2	REITs
Geo Energy Resources	RE4	1.75	-14.79	-6.2	-19.8	92.0	1.3	Energy/ Oil & Gas
Top Glove Corporation Bhd	BVA	1.67	10.32	-30.9	-13.0	-58.3	1.3	Healthcare
Parkway Life REIT	C2PU	1.58	-11.46	8.6	5.5	68.4	0.2	REITs
Manulife US REIT	BTOU	1.53	-18.17	2.4	-37.9	-70.5	0.8	REITs
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust	NS8U	1.41	-0.29	5.5	4.6	4.6	1.3	Industrials
Rh Petrogas	T13	1.31	1.76	-2.2	-3.7	147.9	1.5	Energy/ Oil & Gas
Medtecs International Corporation	546	1.27	-2.60	-12.0	-34.0	287.2	-0.6	Healthcare
IFAST Corporation	AIY	1.25	-5.67	2.9	-20.8	373.3	0.7	Technology
Prime US REIT	OXMU	1.17	-33.40	-2.3	-44.7	-68.6	1.2	REITs
Yanlord Land Group	Z25	1.17	-8.01	0.0	-25.0	-40.2	1.0	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
ISDN Holdings	I07	1.10	3.35	5.7	5.7	139.3	1.1	Technology
Sasseur REIT	CRPU	1.07	-18.37	-5.4	-2.5	47.1	0.7	REITs
Singapore Post	S08	1.06	6.33	1.1	-13.5	-59.4	0.8	Industrials
Paragon REIT	SK6U	1.06	19.83	-0.5	8.0	23.3	0.7	REITs
Tianjin Pharma Da Ren Tang Grp	T14	1.04	41.02	-5.5	94.0	156.1	1.2	Healthcare
StarHub	CC3	1.02	-1.35	3.0	2.5	-18.2	0.6	Telecommunications
Delfi	P34	0.98	-4.97	-3.0	71.5	26.5	0.3	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Hong Fok Corporation	H30	0.91	6.68	0.0	5.8	58.2	1.0	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
SIA Engineering Company	S59	0.89	3.64	5.5	6.4	-11.8	1.2	Industrials
Marco Polo Marine	5LY	0.88	5.31	10.0	34.1	83.3	1.2	Industrials
Riverstone Holdings	AP4	0.86	-0.25	1.6	10.4	93.0	-0.1	Healthcare
Far East Hospitality Trust	Q5T	0.86	6.30	5.9	4.4	26.6	1.2	REITs
Parkson Retail Asia	O9E	0.83	1.47	-23.7	-9.8	32.1	1.9	Consumer Cyclicals
Food Empire Holdings	F03	0.79	7.27	5.2	67.7	82.8	0.9	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Thomson Medical Group	A50	0.78	-9.50	-1.7	-24.4	-22.7	1.2	Healthcare
Emperador Inc	EMI	0.78	1.95	1.0	3.4	17.1	0.0	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
PropNex	OYY	0.76	-1.89	-2.9	40.5	301.5	1.0	Real Estate (excl. REITs)
Starhill Global REIT	P40U	0.74	-4.23	1.0	-1.6	5.6	1.2	REITs
China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation	G92	0.70	3.05	11.2	7.5	-26.9	1.1	Industrials
Great Eastern Holdings	G07	0.69	28.88	4.7	-1.5	-29.7	0.7	Financial Services
Jiutian Chemical Group	C8R	0.66	-5.32	-14.1	-19.7	78.5	1.7	Materials & Resources
Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT	CMOU	0.63	-14.05	5.0	-28.0	-42.4	1.0	REITs
Halcyon Agri Corporation	5VJ	0.61	8.10	0.0	3.8	-20.4	0.8	Consumer Cyclicals
Japfa	UD2	0.58	-7.20	-8.5	-35.0	-30.6	1.2	Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Cromwell European REIT	CWBU	0.57	-7.63	-4.3	9.3	-16.3	0.6	REITs
Acesian Partners	5FW	0.55	0.38	-7.5	16.7	172.2	1.5	Industrials
Sabana Industrial REIT	M1GU	0.54	5.22	1.2	3.4	37.3	0.7	REITs
Cosco Shipping International (Singapore) Co	F83	0.51	-2.58	0.0	-11.7	-57.9	2.1	Industrials
OUE Commercial REIT	TS0U	0.46	1.51	-1.5	0.8	-29.5	1.1	REITs

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 30 June 2023)

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