• Singapore stocks have booked net institutional fund inflow for three consecutive weeks ending 25 August. Last week’s inflow of ~S$150 million, brings the August month-to-date inflow to ~S$440 million. With four trading sessions for the month remaining, August is poised to be the first month local stocks have booked net inflows since Nov 2022.
   
• By sector, the three STI banks led the net institutional inflow in August, while averaging a 3.6% decline in total return, which saw the STI generate a 3.8% decline in total return. The SGD has also depreciated 2.0% to the USD in the August month-to-date, as expectations for another hike to the US Fed Funds Rate before 2024 have almost doubled to above 50%.
   
• Aside from the higher-for-longer outlook for US interest rates, five ASEAN Banks that are also among the 10 largest weights of the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index, averaged 0.4% total returns in SGD terms in the month-to-date. This may have also prompted institutional investors who frequently rebalance, to net buy the STI banks, in order to maintain required country weights in regional portfolios.
   
• At the same time, the past four weeks have seen the Refinitiv consensus estimate target prices on the SGX Stock Screener raised for each of the three banks. According to Refinitiv, DBS, UOB and OCBC currently maintain respective consensus estimate target prices of S$37.55, S$32.35 and S$14.33.

Singapore stocks have booked S$443 million of net institutional inflows in the month of August through to 25 August. With just four sessions for the month remaining, the past three consecutive weeks of net institutional inflows poise August to be the first month that Singapore stocks have booked net institutional inflows since November 2022. Back in November 2022, the STI booked a total return of 6.9%, whereas in the August month-to-date, the STI has generated a 3.8% decline in total return.

*Note August Flow and STI as of 25 August. Indicative flow has been aggregated at an account level for institutional participants. The net amounts are derived from subtracting the total sell amount from the total buy amount for the institutional segment. Source: SGX.

As detailed in the table below, DBS Group Holdings (DBS), United Overseas Bank (UOB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) have booked the highest net institutional net inflows since the end of July. The trio booked S$609 million in combined net inflows in the month-to-date, while Singapore Telecommunications, Venture Corporation and Singapore Airlines booked the most net institutional outflows over the period, with S$248 million in combined net outflows.

Back in November 2022, UOB posted a 12.4% return and booked the highest net institutional inflow in the Singapore stock market for that month with S$306 million of net inflow. In the August month-to-date, the stock booked the second highest net institutional inflow of S$184 million, while generating a 4.0% decline in total return.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 25 August 2023)

When comparing flows and returns, investors must be mindful not to interpret net fund flow as stock performance indicators as fund flow simply indicates how investor genres such as institutions and retail investors are moving funds. There can be a wide range of strategies applied by portfolio managers to achieve returns and attempt to mitigate market risks, including portfolio balancing techniques.

For instance, prior to UOB reporting its 1HFY23 results on 27 July, the three banks have all seen their Refinitiv consensus estimate target prices raised. These target prices are available in the stock screener and represent the average of individual estimates provided by analysts covering the stock and estimates typically represent an analyst's opinion of the stock performance over the next 18 months.

Alternatively, the Singapore Dollar has also depreciated 2.0% to the US Dollar in the August month to 25 August, as expectations for another hike to the Fed Funds Rate before 2024 have almost doubled to above 50%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Aside from the higher-for-longer outlook for US interest rates, five ASEAN Banks which are also among 10 largest weights of the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index that averaged 0.4% total return in SGD terms in the month-to-date. This may have also prompted institutional investors who frequently rebalance, to net buy the STI banks, in order to maintain required country weights in regional portfolios.      

Both UOB and DBS also ranked among the 10 stocks of the 100 most traded stocks this year that booked the highest net institutional inflow from the August month to 25 August, proportionate to market capitalisation on 25 August. Of Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks this year, Frencken Group has booked the highest net institutional inflow from the August month to 25 August, proportionate to market capitalisation on 25 August. Frencken Group’s current Refinitiv consensus estimate target price is currently at S$0.93, up from S$0.83 at the end of July.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 25 August 2023)