• In Jan 2024, the STI declined 2.7%, giving back half the 5.4% gains in December. For the month, the Singapore stock market saw S$384 million in net institutional outflow, led by net outflows to the S-REIT Sector as well as the trio of STI Banks. The iEdge S-REIT Index declined 4.6% in total return and trio of STI Banks averaged 1.9% declines.
   
• The impact of tighter financial conditions has been an overarching economic driver for both the REIT and Bank Sectors, impacting REIT financing costs and bank loan growth. Market expectations for a 20 March FOMC Fed Funds Rate cut were lowered significantly over January from ~90% down to ~35%.
   
• Some sectors performed well in Jan 2024, despite the overall decline. The most traded stocks of the local tourism arc, SIA, ComfortDelGro, Genting, gained 0.9% on average. Keppel & Sembcorp, which are focusing on sustainable energy solutions, gained 4.0% on average. Shipping stocks YZJ Shipbuilding and Samudera Shipping also gained 8.3% on average.
   
• Among the most 50 most traded stocks in Jan 2024, six of them were previously ranked outside the most 50 traded stocks in 2023. They were iFAST Corporation, COSCO Shipping Intl, NIO, DFI Retail Group, CDL Hospitality Trusts and Geo Energy Resources. Only two of them increased in price, while the others declined. The most notable increase in turnover rankings was with COSCO Shipping Intl, which rose from outside the top 100 by turnover in 2023.

The STI had a weak start to 2024, losing 2.7% of its value in January after a strong rally of 5.4% in December. With the exception of the first 30 minutes of trading on 2 January, the entire STI trading range for January 2024 was contained within the December 2023 trading range. Thus, overall stock market trading turnover for January was lower on the month and year. Nonetheless the two STI ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive month of combined net inflows in January 2024, bringing their combined AUM to S$2.2 billion.  

In SGD terms, the FTSE APAC Index ended flat in January,  somewhat evened out with Japan’s 5.8% gain and China’s 5.8% decline on the month.

The Singapore stock market booked S$384 million of net institutional outflow, led by the S-REIT Sector booking net outflows of S$192 million and the STI Banks booking S$116 million in net outflows. Meanwhile Industrials and Utilities both bucked the trend, booking net institutional inflows of S$80 million and S$30 million respectively. Proportionate to their respective month-end market capitalisation, the S-REIT Sector net outflow amounted to -0.2%, while the STI Banks net outflow amounted to -0.1%. At the same time the iEdge S-REIT Index declined 4.6% in total return and trio of STI Banks averaged 1.9% declines. Similar to the two STI ETFs, in January the two S-REIT focused ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive month of net inflows, with the two ETFs ending January with S$419 million of combined AUM.

In addition to secondary-listing Jardine Matheson Holdings conducting share buybacks in January, another 31 primary-listed companies bought back S$124.7 million in combined share buyback consideration. CapitaLand Investment led the consideration tally for the primary-listed stocks, buying back more than 31 million shares at an average price of S$2.96 per share.

The impact of tighter financial conditions has been an overarching economic driver for multiple sectors, in particular the Bank and REIT Sectors. For the banks, higher rates can have an adverse impact on loan growth, and as relayed in the current slate of S-REIT financial reports, can increase financing costs which can reduce distributions. At the end of 2023, the majority of market outlooks touted less tighter financial conditions for 2024, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating the market was 90% convinced the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) would be lower than the prevailing 525-550bps band come the 20 March FOMC. Gradually over the course of January, those odds were reduced to 35%, with the majority odds for the first 25bps FFR cut presently set at the 1 May FOMC. Between now and 1 May 2024, the PCE Core Deflator for January, February and March will all be released, which if the momentum of the past 15 months continues, could be around 2.6%.  

Singapore’s 50 most traded stocks in January made up more than 90 cents of every dollar that went to work into the Singapore stock market in January. Among the 50, the 10 stocks that posted the strongest gains for the month are tabled below.

 Note: ADT refers to average daily turnover; NIF refers to net institutional flows; TR refers to total returns.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 31 Jan 2024).

Among the most 50 most traded stocks in Jan 2024, six of them were previously ranked outside the most 50 traded stocks in 2023. COSCO Shipping International (Singapore) Co was ranked as the 43^rd most traded stock by turnover, after ranking outside the 100 most traded for the full 2023 year. The six stocks are tabled below.

Note: ADT refers to average daily turnover; NIF refers to net institutional flows; TR refers to total returns.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 31 Jan 2024).

NIO Inc also saw the most declines among the 50 most traded stocks in January, followed by Nanofilm Technologies International, AEM Holdings, DFI Retail Group Holdings and Seatrium. The full 50 most traded stocks are tabled below.

Note: ADT refers to average daily turnover; NIF refers to net institutional flows; TR refers to total returns.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 31 Jan 2024).

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