星洲財經評論

誰是預算案的贏家?

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 30 Oct 2013, 05:02 PM

2013-10-30 12:33

誰是預算案的贏家?不用說,第一個大輸家一定是人民,消費稅、取消白糖津貼等政策都可能加重人民負擔。

那麼贏家會是政府嗎?政府為刺激經濟成長與鞏固執政地位,承受了長達16年的財政赤字,導致債務累積逼近55%的債務國內生產總值比。

如今,政府不得不慎重考慮降低赤字以減輕債務負擔,於是推出2014年“無糖”預算案,頓時惹來人民的一片謾罵,處理不好還會損失政治本錢,也是輸家。

被人民抱怨是政府多年來不遵守財政紀律的後果,是咎由自取,但當大家把矛頭都指向政府的時候,已經遺忘除了政府與人民之外,還有商家。

我國有一種現象,就是一旦政府減少生產要素津貼的時候,商家就會趁機會起價,且人民彷彿已經接受這模式,每當政府削減津貼的時候,就會自我預期商品未來必然漲價,擔心通貨膨脹來臨,但間中其實有不合理的地方。

以過往的情況來看,若汽油價格上揚10%,市場許多產品就上升10%,乍聽之下合情合理,但汽油只是成本架構其中一環,若汽油佔整體成本比例較小的企業,汽油起價10%不等於整體成本一定上升10%。尤其在一般情況下,汽油屬固定成本,可從運輸量中被攤分,那每單位的成本漲幅可能很微小。

如今每公斤白糖34仙的津貼被取消,加上最低薪金制度與削減汽油津貼等夾擊,飲食業就已醞釀漲價;一般時候,若生產要素價格上漲而推高成本,商家必須“忍聲吞氣”,因隨意漲價會遭人民砲轟。

若政府減少津貼,他們就找到“堂堂正正”的起價理由了,因政府是發起的那方,商家只是“被迫”起價,且人民也接受這類起價理由,並把矛頭指向政府,而很少人質疑商家漲價的合理性。

即使漲價合理,從商成本上漲可以提高售價,商家永遠可以立於不敗之地,惟人民承受物價高漲之苦,會有要求加薪的選擇嗎?(星洲日報/財經小品‧作者:劉國通)

 

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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

bsngpg

作者有点言过其实。汽油涨价,多数商品跟着涨。Kopi-O 1.30。当然至少起10仙啦。5仙太难交易,也少流通。10仙=8%。正常呀。

另外,多数商品涨价,咖啡店老板的生活费也跟着涨,所以他们现在须多赚些以应付多涨的开銷。

如果成本涨3%,商品也只涨3%。那么凈利就跌啦。

2013-10-30 18:59

bsngpg

小市民?难道小商家就不是小市民?

2013-10-30 19:01

Guan Soon Phua

you are right, i support .

2013-10-30 20:24

bsngpg

In this case, Government is the final winner.

Economically, government is the final winner as less spending thru reduction on subsidy. Businessmen are definitely not the winner as after increasing price to cover the increased cost, sale volume drops as people dislike or cannot afford the higher price. On another end, when public has less dispensable income, they spend less and this is another hit to the sale volume of the business. Therefore with the cut in subsidy, the losers are certainly “rakyat” which includes businessmen.

From the write up, I can guess that the writer (作者:劉國通) is the member of MCA or Gerakan.

2013-10-30 22:30

bsngpg

Correction: It should be when cost ups by 3 sen, selling price ups by 3 sen accordingly. Thus the net margin drops.

2013-10-30 22:35

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