Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Fama 3-factor model vs kcchongnz portfolio return
Stock Pick and Trading Challenge 2013 2H - kcchgonnz [simulation]
Professor Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago is one of the three economists to be awarded the 2013 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences for his ground-breaking work advancing the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).
The EMH postulates that in an efficient capital market, current market price reflects all available information about a security and the expected return based upon this price is consistent with its risks. As a result, it is impossible for an investor to consistently beat the market and profit from it, unless he takes up more risks.
The Fama three-factors model expands on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) by adding size and value risk factors in addition to the market risk factor in CAPM. This model considers the fact that value and small cap stocks outperform markets on a regular basis because of these additional risks. The stock return equation, r, is written as follows:
r = Rf + β*(Rm-Rf) + bs*SMB +bv*HML + α
Where Rf is the risk free rate, Rm is the market return, SMB is Small minus Big market capitalization, HML is the High minus Low book-to-market ratio, bs and bv are the respective coefficients as obtained from regression, α is a random number.
This model claims that when the risks in the size and value are considered, the vast majority of returns are explained. Excess return or alpha just about completely disappears when a portfolio measurement accounts for the average size and value weights of the holdings. No longer can anybody claim credit for unexplained excess results that occur simply because he held a portfolio tilted toward small or value.
Let us look at the portfolio of kcchongnz and see if the claim that the excess return in the order of 24.2% in three months is really due to the additional risks incurred.
1. Do the stocks in the portfolio have historically high volatility as measured by β as in CAPM?
The 11 stocks in the portfolio are hardly researched by investment houses, especially when they are first selected into the portfolio. More than half of them have no research report from any investment bank. Others have only one or the most two research houses covering them. There is hardly any institutional investors owning their stocks. There are also few retail investors invested in those stocks and hence not much trading on them. My hunch is that the values of β are mostly smaller than 1 if one cares to regress the return of their stock prices against the return of the market.
2. Does the portfolio consists of mostly small market capitalized stocks?
For sure it is. None of the stocks in the portfolio has a market capitalization anywhere close to one billion Ringgit. Only a couple of them, Kumpulan Fima and Daiman have slightly above 500 million market capitalization. Fibon’s market capitalization was just 32.3 million and Datasonic just migrated from the ACE market to the main board when they were first written. But are these stocks more risky as postulated by the 3-factor model?
The stocks were picked based on their good and consistent earnings, healthy balance sheets and good cash flows. After determining that those companies are good companies based on fundamental metrics, they were purchased at reasonable price or even way below their intrinsic values. Many of the companies selected have heaps of cash and little debts, if any. So how could they be more risky just because they have small market capitalization and warrant higher risk premiums?
3. Does the portfolio consist of mostly high book-to-market ratios?
In the first place, the stocks were selected as explained in the last section, i.e. good and consistent earnings, healthy balance sheet and good cash flows sold at a comfortable margin of safety in relation to their intrinsic values. But why is it considered as higher risk for stock with a higher book value than the market value? Isn’t that safer to buy stock with a higher book value than the market value?
A review of those stocks in the portfolio shows that a mixed bag of high and low book-to-market ratios and hence the 3-factor model doesn’t seem to apply.
The portfolio out-performed the broad market by a whopping 24.2% in three months. From the argument above, it doesn’t appear that the portfolio consists of stocks of higher market risk as measured by β.
It does appear to confirm that small market capitalization and good value (not necessary book-to-market ratio but other value metrics) may explain the excess return. However, it beats me to think that small market capitalization and good value carry additional risks and hence the explanation of excess return.
So is the market in Malaysia efficient? Does the excess return due to the additional risks carried? For me I highly doubt so.
Posted by kcchongnz at Nov 2, 2013 07:21 AM
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 39 of 40 comments
is it fair to run this analysis based on 3 months of returns during a bull market run?
2013-11-04 11:21
haikeyila, you may be right. It may be too early too judge the true performance of an investment portfolio just for a three month period. A lot of it could be due to luck too.
But how do you define a bull market? A market return of just 2.1% from 1773 to 1810 in three months a bull market?
And how to explain the excess return of of the portfolio of more than 20% over the broad market as all luck?
And how do you explain that there are so many hot stocks like KNM, Rsawit, MKLand, Smartag, Amedia etc which have been stuck at near historical low all this while?
2013-11-04 14:26
surely you dont need the market to be up 100% before calling it bull? im not doubting your stock selection, i have some of those stocks too, but the conclusion drawn up in the article may be premature.
2013-11-04 14:41
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 02:41 PM | Report Abuse
surely you dont need the market to be up 100% before calling it bull?..but the conclusion drawn up in the article may be premature.
YEAH FULLY AGREE WITH YOU THAT ONE NEEDS NOT LOOK AT 100% RETURN TO CONSIDER IT AS A BULL MARKET. BUT DID YOU CONCLUDE THAT THE RISE OF KLSE BY JUST 2.1% AS A BULL MARKET? IS THAT CONSIDERED AS A BULL MARKET AS CLAIMED BY YOU?
THE CONCLUSION OF THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ME AS APPENDED AS BELOW. SO WHAT IS PREMATURE AS CLAIMED BY YOU? AND WHAT IS YOUR CONCLUSION IF ANY?
[It does appear to confirm that small market capitalization and good value (not necessary book-to-market ratio but other value metrics) may explain the excess return. However, it beats me to think that small market capitalization and good value carry additional risks and hence the explanation of excess return.
So is the market in Malaysia efficient? Does the excess return due to the additional risks carried? For me I highly doubt so.]
2013-11-04 15:21
gee, i sure hope you're not shouting to direct attention to your posting.
2013-11-04 16:03
Hey I am engaging a discussion with you. What do I gain shouting to direct attention to my posting? Got gold to earn ah?
Are you ready to discuss with me or are you just shouting for nothing?
2013-11-04 16:05
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
gee, i sure hope you're not shouting to direct attention to your posting.
No, I am not "shouting to direct attention to your posting" here again. You raised the issue and I am glad about it and would like to engage in a useful discussion with you as below. Hope you can respond.
Posted by kcchongnz > Nov 4, 2013 03:21 PM | Report Abuse X
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 02:41 PM | Report Abuse
surely you dont need the market to be up 100% before calling it bull?..but the conclusion drawn up in the article may be premature.
YEAH FULLY AGREE WITH YOU THAT ONE NEEDS NOT LOOK AT 100% RETURN TO CONSIDER IT AS A BULL MARKET. BUT DID YOU CONCLUDE THAT THE RISE OF KLSE BY JUST 2.1% AS A BULL MARKET? IS THAT CONSIDERED AS A BULL MARKET AS CLAIMED BY YOU?
THE CONCLUSION OF THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ME AS APPENDED AS BELOW. SO WHAT IS PREMATURE AS CLAIMED BY YOU? AND WHAT IS YOUR CONCLUSION IF ANY?
[It does appear to confirm that small market capitalization and good value (not necessary book-to-market ratio but other value metrics) may explain the excess return. However, it beats me to think that small market capitalization and good value carry additional risks and hence the explanation of excess return.
So is the market in Malaysia efficient? Does the excess return due to the additional risks carried? For me I highly doubt so.]
2013-11-04 16:24
kc, maybe cause u wrote in upper caps. That can be interpreted as shouting by some...
anyway, for me, there is a large margin of safety holding these type of small caps if u hv a long investment horizon... in the short run, these stocks may be speculated n manipulated due to their low liquidity.. it goes up very fast over short period n could be sold down just as fast... Not for reasons due to fundamentals...
2013-11-04 18:33
I wrote in upper case just to show differentiate that those were my response to his comments which are in lower case. I thought it will lead to a good discussion about finance and investing in particular efficient market hypothesis as it is related to an academic paper by Professor Fama who recently got his Nobel price in economics.
My original article was a response to a comment below in the thread of my stock pick. Tan KW put it up separately in the market blog.
Posted by stanley_k > Nov 2, 2013 12:48 AM | Report Abuse
hi kcchongnz,
Congrates on your impressive return. Will Fama 3-factor model be a more appropriate way of explaining the stock return in this case? Since small cap and value firms tend to outperform the market. Thanks.
And this guy talked cynically like this as if I was shouting for attention to this blog put up by Tan KW. What for?
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
gee, i sure hope you're not shouting to direct attention to your posting
2013-11-04 18:52
The recent spike in a few good small-mid cap stocks (Fibon, Homeritz, YOCB, Willow, etc) did caught me at a surprise, including the like of Insas and PM Corp. Well, it seems to me that the market is suddenly "chasing" for these counters which had been neglected in the past. I don't know if this kind of price increase is "healthy" for the long term investors or the company itself. Does it create a temptation to directors to sell down their stake or trading their own shares? Does it attract punters or contra players to these counters? Yeah, like you said who doesn't want double digit return in a short period? However, we all know that those value investing gurus achieved their impressive return over a long period, not 3 months or even 6 months ... So I m actually concern over the unusual gain given the short period of time.
2013-11-04 20:41
Hi: I read quite a lot of your posts, therefore I am familiar with your ways of bringing out your points or expressing yourself. But be frank, for those who are not familiar with you especially those who are not used to direct-style, your ways are a bit forcing. If you can use more substantiations and explanations instead of forcing questions to strengthen your points, I believe it will encourage further discussion in a more relaxing mode. My 2 cents only.
2013-11-04 21:40
I support the above comment by Avocado_C on Nov 4, 2013 08:41 PM as I have a very similar thought that “……..value investing gurus achieved their impressive return over a long period, not 3 months or even 6 months ... So I m actually concern over the unusual gain given the short period of time.”
In fact, I expect you to support that right believe and strengthen it by giving further substantiations and explanations. Or you may disagree.
2013-11-04 22:06
Bsngpg,
I am not as a courteous a person as you are. My style is direct as you rightly say so. My point is we are discussion about investing here and I have my strong opinion. I don’t like to beat around the bush and not bring forward the right message. It is just me.
Regarding your statement that “your ways are a bit forcing. If you can use more substantiations and explanations instead of forcing questions to strengthen your points, I believe it will encourage further discussion in a more relaxing mode”, I am not sure what you mean.
Let’s look at this comment here which I initially appreciated and thought that a good discussion would follow suit, and my response.
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
is it fair to run this analysis based on 3 months of returns during a bull market run?
And my response in upper case letters here:
Posted by kcchongnz > Nov 4, 2013 03:21 PM | Report Abuse X
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 02:41 PM | Report Abuse
surely you dont need the market to be up 100% before calling it bull?..but the conclusion drawn up in the article may be premature.
YEAH FULLY AGREE WITH YOU THAT ONE NEEDS NOT LOOK AT 100% RETURN TO CONSIDER IT AS A BULL MARKET. BUT DID YOU CONCLUDE THAT THE RISE OF KLSE BY JUST 2.1% AS A BULL MARKET? IS THAT CONSIDERED AS A BULL MARKET AS CLAIMED BY YOU?
THE CONCLUSION OF THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ME AS APPENDED AS BELOW. SO WHAT IS PREMATURE AS CLAIMED BY YOU? AND WHAT IS YOUR CONCLUSION IF ANY?
[It does appear to confirm that small market capitalization and good value (not necessary book-to-market ratio but other value metrics) may explain the excess return. However, it beats me to think that small market capitalization and good value carry additional risks and hence the explanation of excess return.
So is the market in Malaysia efficient? Does the excess return due to the additional risks carried? For me I highly doubt so.]
He is making a statement that it is a bull market and I asked is it considered a “bull market” when the rise of the market is only 2.1% in three months? Is that too “forcing” a question?
I put up my reasoning that Fama’s three factor model, i.e. CAPM, size and value may or may not explain the excess return of the portfolio and he said my conclusions is premature. He did not give any substantiations though. So I asked him what is his conclusion and reasoning then.
So is this question “forcing”? Can you tell me what “more substantiations and explanations” are required as stated by you? Or can you tell me how to ask questions and engage in a useful discussion without “appearing” that it is “forcing”?
And read his subsequent response here:
Posted by haikeyila > Nov 4, 2013 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
gee, i sure hope you're not shouting to direct attention to your posting.
What else do you expect me to response then?
2013-11-05 09:35
“Value portfolio managers buy and sell judiciously, choosing today’s ugly duckling that shows the promise of becoming tomorrow’s beautiful swan.”
Avocado, I have/had all the small-mid cap stocks you mentioned above except YOCB. So allow me to give my opinion about your concern.
I have looked into the business and studied the financial performance, balance sheet and cash flow of all the companies above before investing on them. You can read my opinion and analysis of them in i3. The analyses are for sharing purposes and not for enticing anybody to buy or sell their stocks.
I invested in Fibon, Homeritz and Willow based on their earnings, cash flow and healthy balance sheets. Insas and PM Corp on their strength of balance sheet, or more specifically Graham net-net situations. So I have my own perception of their intrinsic values. Yes, they were mostly neglected counters at the time I first looked at them but to me they all worth investing (not punting) with their own values and other merits as explained.
When would I want the ugly ducklings to become beautiful swans? When would I hope that their “true” intrinsic value to be discovered and stock price moves towards that “intrinsic” value? To me now or the soonest the better. Why not? If the stock prices have moved towards the intrinsic value, I could sell them earlier and realize the gain earlier. I can put my money now to invest in other ugly ducklings (which hopefully would turn into beautiful swans later) and make more profit; or I can just put the money and earn fixed income return. Can’t we? Why would I want to “hope” for the value to realize in say 5 or 6 more years time? Do you appreciate time value of money?
If you feel uncomfortable about the fast gain in such a short period or worry about the directors selling down or frying their stocks, why can’t you sell your stocks now and realize those extra-ordinary profit now? I would. Why would you prefer to realize the same profit in 5 or 6 years time?
My opinion is that one shouldn’t be sentimental about a stock. If you think its price has run up too fast and beyond its intrinsic value, sell it and move on. A great company doesn't mean it is a great investment, if the price is not right. Agree?
Bsngpg, this is just simply dollar and cents question. What “further substantiations and explanations” do I need to give?
2013-11-05 10:57
"My opinion is that one shouldn’t be sentimental about a stock. If you think its price has run up too fast and beyond its intrinsic value, sell it and move on. A great company doesn't mean it is a great investment, if the price is not right. Agree? "
Couldnt agree more on this statement...but hard to practice.. once a lot of time n effort been spent on researching the company... its hard not to be biasesd or sentimental... to move on and look for another gem is not easy even though the stock researched earlier is almost fully valued...
2013-11-05 11:06
大佬：I like to chat with you but unfortunately have no time.
一些要点：
知识形，高思维，哆哆逼人，反挑战，舒服讨论课题。
希望我们可以再继续交流。给我时间。
除了她的最后comment on .....shouting....,其他的我是站在她那边的。
2013-11-05 13:04
kcchongnz, I got some problems need to consult u.
1) What is the suitable price for me to exit PM Corp? Or this counter still got huge potential to grow in future?
2) What do u feel about insas? Can I enter now? How far can it grow until reach it "not undervalue" stage?
Just need ur opinion & analysis.
Thank u so so much!!!
2013-11-05 13:46
when the price shoot up in a short period of time, just sell them. Give to the buyer, then laugh all the way to the bank.
2013-11-05 13:57
Posted by 林俊松 > Nov 5, 2013 01:46 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, I got some problems need to consult u.
1) What is the suitable price for me to exit PM Corp? Or this counter still got huge potential to grow in future?
2) What do u feel about insas? Can I enter now? How far can it grow until reach it "not undervalue" stage?
Just need ur opinion & analysis.
Thank u so so much!!!
林俊松, by coincident I read a few of your posts. I refrained from commenting as I find that often it is not worth to comment when it doesn't concern me and instead attracting personal attacks at the end. It is 吃力不討好, 好努力去做d野係諗出於好心幫助的，但係得黎既只係反效果～例如俾人討厭！
But since you specifically asked me, I will give you my opinion. Bear in mind that in order to convey my message rightly, I have to be blunt.
The good thing about you is you are young. You have a good education and a career. You don't have much opportunity to waste your hard earned money as you are working in a place where there is not much opportunity to spend money. So you would do well financially. That is provided you don't waste away your money.
Work hard for your job, safe and invest wisely and you would have a great financial future. Indulge in gambling especially with insiders and manipulators in the stock market can end up the other way.
The bad thing is you don't know about investing. Simply buying and selling stocks based on what people say and rumours and hope to make a fortune to me is simply a gambling endeavour.
“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”― Warren Buffet
So first learn about investing. Understand that in every stock, there is a company behind it. The future price of a stock must be dependent on the future prospect of its business. Learn and read a lot about investment, financial statement interpretation and analysis, time value of money, valuations etc everything about finance and investment. Believe me, this stuff is much easier than high level maths statistics. Stand behind those investment giants; Warren buffet, Peter Lynch, Charles Munger, Philip Fisher, Ben Graham etc. Read and learn about their investing philosophies. Practice, practice and practice and you would get better in what you have learned and do.
Regarding the stocks you asked, you can read about what others say, including mine. More important you must have the knowledge and ability to evaluate yourself, correctly. Do they talk sense? Do they back up with good reasoning? Have you checked yourself? Nobody can help you except yourself.
2013-11-05 15:21
Ok, thanks. I will read a lot to improve myself.
Mind to guide me how on judging a company is good to invest?
Which are the key indicator that I should take into account: PE ratio, ROE, 5-years revenue, 5-years epf?
In the meanwhile, could you tell me why you pick Insas instead of TA?
Since TA price lower, NTA hgher, 5-years revenue consistently higher.
2013-11-05 17:52
林俊松, That is the right attitude to learn about investing.
For me before buying the stock of a company, i will try to find out if it is a good company. Then if it is, is the price right. Does it make sense to you? If it does, I will invite you to read this thread set up by me below. Try to reason out yourself if it make sense.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900285510.jsp
Sometimes an ordinary company, or even a not-so-good company can be a good investing, if the offer price is very low. For example a rundown house in a good suburb where the average price of a house is 1m, and the rundown house is offered for sale at half a million, and you estimate that it needs 200,000 to fix up the house. does it make sense to you that this house is a good bargain? But of course you must know the value of the house before you can decide, isn't it? So you may also refer to the follow link to see if there is good value for a stock.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp
The above thread in i3 was also started by me. You don't have to agree with me but you should read it and think for yourself if it makes sense.
Of course you have many other resources you can refer to which are better than the above threads. Go search for them.
As regards to your question about why i pick Insas and not TA, all I can say is I am just a small time retail investor. I am not an analyst, nor a professional in the industry. I don't know all. I have not looked at TA. I happened to look at Insas and made an analysis on its assets and found it attractive at that price.
2013-11-05 18:14
bsngpg,
You really are a wise man. Forgot about this Chinese saying about "when you are in it, you can't see clearly. but when you see from outside, things appear to be clearer."
Appreciate what you said and will try to change.
2013-11-06 04:15
整个晚上沒睡好，但心不小心得罪朋友了。一直挣扎想爬起來把帖子删除。
现在知道你明白我的用意，终于放心了。
无论如何还是想说声抱歉，我多事了。
竟然你己看了，我就把帖子除啦。
2013-11-06 07:13
Kcchongnz... I hv encountered u in two threads n d results r as follows
MFCB... ur valuation is wrong as u so glaringly missed out n omitted to account for d fact tat its two major IPP concessions wil cease in abt 5 years.
Bsngpg was in tat thread... he blindly supported u then... glad to c he has wised up.
PMCORP... cannot believe d uncle who claimed to be a Value Investor actually bought nto tis counter wit pathetic profit n dim future as its plant n machines r all very very old... n hv bin having impairment losses on loans to its subsidies again n again...
Worst still u actually tried to claim credit for d rise in its price.... but I suppose tat is jz u...
Hello.. time to wake up... From wat I hv seen thr in Pmcorp.. thr r at least 4 or 5 of thm gang who could do a better.. much much better.. valuation than u...... know d in n out of stocks mkt much much better than u.... can anytime out quote u on Warren Buffet Peter Lynch... know d beta n gama much better than u.. n etc etc
N u actually really think tat they needed ur simplicitic FA blah blah blah... wake up man... in their eyes u r nothing but jz a boy scout..
Bsngpg was there too n having big trouble reconciling Pmcorp wit Value Investing...
2013-11-06 08:15
Respecting others is a way showing that we are an educated man. Everybody can have their own opinion and differs from each other but the bottom line is "respect". To me, this is the basic as a civilized human being. You can disagree.
2013-11-06 08:53
Posted by JCool > Nov 6, 2013 08:15 AM | Report Abuse
Kcchongnz... I hv encountered u in two threads n d results r as follows
MFCB... ur valuation is wrong as u so glaringly missed out n omitted to account for d fact tat its two major IPP concessions wil cease in abt 5 years.
SO WHAT IS YOUR VALUATION THEN? SO LONG ALREADY YOU STILL HAVEN'T PROVIDE US YOUR VALUATION? MFCB IS 1.94 NOW, PLUS THE 3 SEN DIVIDEND, SO THE RETURN IS 27 SEN, OR 16% IN THREE MONTHS. WHAT DO YOU THINK, OK OR NOT?
Bsngpg was in tat thread... he blindly supported u then... glad to c he has wised up.
PMCORP... cannot believe d uncle who claimed to be a Value Investor actually bought nto tis counter wit pathetic profit n dim future as its plant n machines r all very very old... n hv bin having impairment losses on loans to its subsidies again n again...
I JUST SOLD PMCORP AT 34 SEN FOR A GAIN OF 19 SEN, OR 127%, FOR ME, MY CHILDREN AND MY RELATIVES. WHAT DO YOU THINK? ACTUALLY YOU HAVE NO CLUE OF WHY I BOUGHT PMCORP AT THE FIRST PLACE ALTHOUGH I HAVE POSTED THE REASONS WHY I DID.
Worst still u actually tried to claim credit for d rise in its price.... but I suppose tat is jz u...
CAN SHOW ME WHERE AND HOW I "CLAIM CREDIT FOR D RISE IN ITS PRICE"? GIVE YOU 5 SEN IF YOU CAN PROVE THAT.
Hello.. time to wake up... From wat I hv seen thr in Pmcorp.. thr r at least 4 or 5 of thm gang who could do a better.. much much better.. valuation than u...... know d in n out of stocks mkt much much better than u.... can anytime out quote u on Warren Buffet Peter Lynch... know d beta n gama much better than u.. n etc etc
SURE SURE SURE. i AM JUST A RETAIL INVESTOR ONLY MAH.
N u actually really think tat they needed ur simplicitic FA blah blah blah... wake up man... in their eyes u r nothing but jz a boy scout..
SURE SURE SURE, YOU ARE THE BEST.
Bsngpg was there too n having big trouble reconciling Pmcorp wit Value Investing...
2013-11-06 10:39
I fully agree that the hardest to master in share market is selling, like what OTB said : "Buying a share is not a skill, selling a share is a skill". Well, he is a bit extreme, I would say buying requires skills (TA / FA), but selling requires a lot more skills! There are a lot of emotions involved when selling, e.g. fear of losing further gain, long term attachment, market pressures, when to cut loss, etc etc ...
2013-11-06 10:42
Posted by kcchongnz > Nov 6, 2013 10:39 AM | Report Abuse
Posted by JCool > Nov 6, 2013 08:15 AM | Report Abuse
Kcchongnz... I hv encountered u in two threads n d results r as follows
MFCB... ur valuation is wrong as u so glaringly missed out n omitted to account for d fact tat its two major IPP concessions wil cease in abt 5 years.
SO WHAT IS YOUR VALUATION THEN? SO LONG ALREADY YOU STILL HAVEN'T PROVIDE US YOUR VALUATION? MFCB IS 1.94 NOW, PLUS THE 3 SEN DIVIDEND, SO THE RETURN IS 27 SEN, OR 16% IN THREE MONTHS. WHAT DO YOU THINK, OK OR NOT?
RETURN 16% IN 3 MONTHS.. YA.. SO??!!
OH YES OH YES.. I SAY.. I SAY.. HOW CAN I NOT C IT... U R CLAIMING CREDIT FOR TIS 16% UP FOR UR HALF PAST SIX VALUATION WHC MISSED BY A MILE...
I M STIL HOLDING MY MFCB... WANT TO SAY TQ.. BUT HONESTLY I THINK WITH OR WITHOUT UR HALF PAST SIX.. IT WLD HV GONE UP LA... LIQUIDITY BULL RUN MAH.. EVERY COUNTER WLD HV ITS 15 MINUTES OF FAME
Bsngpg was in tat thread... he blindly supported u then... glad to c he has wised up.
PMCORP... cannot believe d uncle who claimed to be a Value Investor actually bought nto tis counter wit pathetic profit n dim future as its plant n machines r all very very old... n hv bin having impairment losses on loans to its subsidies again n again...
I JUST SOLD PMCORP AT 34 SEN FOR A GAIN OF 19 SEN, OR 127%, FOR ME, MY CHILDREN AND MY RELATIVES. WHAT DO YOU THINK? ACTUALLY YOU HAVE NO CLUE OF WHY I BOUGHT PMCORP AT THE FIRST PLACE ALTHOUGH I HAVE POSTED THE REASONS WHY I DID.
HELLO NET NET IS HARDLY VALUE INVESTING LA
OR THERE IS SOME OTHER REASON?? TIS IS NOT BEING HONEST N TRANSPARENT LO.. GOT HIDDEN REASONS SOME MORE...
Worst still u actually tried to claim credit for d rise in its price.... but I suppose tat is jz u...
CAN SHOW ME WHERE AND HOW I "CLAIM CREDIT FOR D RISE IN ITS PRICE"? GIVE YOU 5 SEN IF YOU CAN PROVE THAT.
JZ 5 SEN.... U VERY CONFIDENCE LO.. 5 SEN I HV NO TIME LA.. BUT C MFCB ABOVE
Hello.. time to wake up... From wat I hv seen thr in Pmcorp.. thr r at least 4 or 5 of thm gang who could do a better.. much much better.. valuation than u...... know d in n out of stocks mkt much much better than u.... can anytime out quote u on Warren Buffet Peter Lynch... know d beta n gama much better than u.. n etc etc
SURE SURE SURE. i AM JUST A RETAIL INVESTOR ONLY MAH.
OTB IS DOING SOMETHING RIGHT IN PMCORP NOW... TAKE TIS GUY AS UR EXAMPLE MAN..
N u actually really think tat they needed ur simplicitic FA blah blah blah... wake up man... in their eyes u r nothing but jz a boy scout..
SURE SURE SURE, YOU ARE THE BEST.
I HV NEVER EVER CLAIMED TAT OK
N I THINK UR POODLES R FLAGGING ME AGAIN
Bsngpg was there too n having big trouble reconciling Pmcorp wit Value Investing...
2013-11-06 15:47
Posted by JCool > Nov 6, 2013 03:47 PM | Report Abuse
RETURN 16% IN 3 MONTHS.. YA.. SO??!!
OH YES OH YES.. I SAY.. I SAY.. HOW CAN I NOT C IT... U R CLAIMING CREDIT FOR TIS 16% UP FOR UR HALF PAST SIX VALUATION WHC MISSED BY A MILE...
I M STIL HOLDING MY MFCB... WANT TO SAY TQ.. BUT HONESTLY I THINK WITH OR WITHOUT UR HALF PAST SIX.. IT WLD HV GONE UP LA... LIQUIDITY BULL RUN MAH.. EVERY COUNTER WLD HV ITS 15 MINUTES OF FAME
Yeah 16% in 3 months. Not good? How is your AncomLB which you have been mumbling all this while and with nobody giving a damn? Do you have any stocks which has gone up by 6% in 3 months, not to say 16%? Show show show!
HELLO NET NET IS HARDLY VALUE INVESTING LA
OR THERE IS SOME OTHER REASON?? TIS IS NOT BEING HONEST N TRANSPARENT LO.. GOT HIDDEN REASONS SOME MORE...
Net net not value investing? shouting "luv luv luv" everywhere like a bloody fool is value investing?
By the way I have use Graham (do you know who is Benjamin Graham?)as shown in the thread below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/36493.jsp
See the Table on the return of those net net stock I was talking about within a month or two as shown below:
Daiman 2.63 3.04 16%
KSL 2.02 2.06 2%
Plenitude 2.10 3.59 71%
Insas 0.630 0.795 26%
PMCorp 0.150 0.340 127%
Average 48%
Yeah, average gain of 48% in just a month or two for a portfolio of 5 stocks. No, I am not claiming credit for their rise. I am showing how good am I just comparing with you, and you only!
OTB IS DOING SOMETHING RIGHT IN PMCORP NOW... TAKE TIS GUY AS UR EXAMPLE MAN..
What is wrong with me buying PMCorp at 15 sen 6 weeks ago and selling PMcorp at 34 sen this morning that I must take OTB as my example?
2013-11-06 16:47
kcchongnz Can I know this counter"Pmcorp" is a good fundamental stock, worth to buy this share
2013-12-03 23:31
jennylee, PMCorp made a lot of people lost a lot of money 20-30 years ago sliding from RM18 (?) to the present 26 sen. So I really dare not say it is a good company. I have no insight about the company.
If there is no change in the company, in its business, management etc then I would stay away form this company. However, its has some good net assets amounting to more than its market capitalization as shown in my Graham net net valuation of about 30 sen per share. So I don't know if PMCorp is a good or bad company now, but even a bad company can be a good investment if the price is right, agree?
It would be good if the company just liquidate and return the net asset to the shareholders, then shareholders will straightaway have a 20%+ more than its share price. That is short term but quite a low risk one because of its asset compared with its price.
However the company is not going to do that. It would use most of its liquid asset to try to build up its chocolate business. If successful, it may provide better return for shareholders in the future. It all hinges on the prospect of its business. Is the business going to flourish? Is the management capable? More important, is the management credible? That you have to make your own judgement, may be by reading more about the company, and also all the discussions in the PMCorp thread in i3.
2013-12-04 04:35
kcchongnz Can I know these counter"ccmbio and Igb" is a good fundamental stock, worth to buy these share
2014-05-10 13:02
Posted by jennylee1382 > May 10, 2014 01:02 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz Can I know these counter"ccmbio and Igb" is a good fundamental stock, worth to buy these share
There are a few things I normally look at to answer your questions:
1) Is the kind of business likely to last for some time?
2) Is it a good company? This I have to look at what kind of performance of the past the company achieved in term of earning in return of the capitals.
3) Yes, is it cheap? In this case look at the price Vs its earnings. I prefer taking the whole firm into considerations.
Yes, these are all history but they are the only things I can rely and trust on with confidence.
So I will work on those few things if I were you.
2014-05-10 13:27
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Tan KW, thanks again for posting this.
2013-11-02 09:35