Stockman blogs
This is how the stock market works, by KYY
stockmanmy
Publish date: Tue, 11 Apr 2017, 10:30 AM
stockmanmy
0 76
Trade at your own risk. I am here only to vomit out my feelings
Hi,
As you know, share price goes up and down like a yoyo. When the price goes up you will naturally feel happy and when the price comes down you will feel depressed.
You must remember that only you can decide if you want to be happy or not. My trick is to look at the bright side of any situation. When the price is down, I would say to myself that it will go up again soon.
Always think of some thing positive to make yourself happy.
This is how the stock market works! A cold winter!
It was autumn, and the Red Indians asked their New Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern Society, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his Tribe that the Winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village Should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked 'Is The coming winter going to be cold?'
It looks like this winter is Going to be quite cold indeed,' the weather man Responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect Even more Wood. A week later, he called the National Weather Service Again. 'Is it going to be a very cold winter?'
'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service Again replied, 'It's definitely going to be a very cold winter.'
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to Collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to Be very cold?'
'Absolutely, ' The Man replied. 'It's going to be one of the coldest Winters ever.'
'How can you be so sure?' the Chief asked.
The weatherman replied, 'The Red Indians are collecting wood like Crazy..'
This is how stock markets work !!!
======================================================
More articles on Stockman blogs
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 58 comments
Fake financial news under SEC crosshairs
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/fake-financial-news-under-sec-crosshairs.html
No wonder our KLSE also recently talk about fake news.
2017-04-11 11:25
I didn't post this to say KC is not successful personally or professionally.
But I must admit I find it bullshit when a self proclaimed conservative, prudent, risk adverse value investor put all his time / assets in Ace market.
Hang pig head to sell dog meat
2017-04-11 11:33
This bcos mammy...not panlai....thats why don understand....value investment & margin of safety....and the great investment work kc is doing loh...!!
2017-04-11 11:44
what I understand is hang pig head to sell dog meat
By quoting from Warren Buffet to justify his activities in Ace Market is hang pig head to sell dog meat.
2017-04-11 11:59
Beware people telling you 30% margin of safety
another form of
Hanging pig head to sell dog meat.
2017-04-11 12:03
U see why value investor Quote W.Buffet leh ??
Bcos W.buffet is a great supporter of value investment mah...!!
U don see...W.buffet support dynamic investment leh !! Why ah ??
Bcos long run dynamic....will lose out to value management mah...!!
If u adopt value investment....u r adopting the best investment tech endorse by world greatest investor w.buffet loh....!!
Yes...W,Buffet no need to bluff u unlike KYY the manipulator...bcos Warren Buffet being the 10 richest person in the world...bluffing u ...mean small monies....no point!!
Better to have good karma loh....!!
Trust Warren Buffet...u trust value investment is the best mah...!!
2017-04-11 12:15
Stock market rewards people who accepts and faces risk sincerely, not those who hang pig head to sell dog meat.
hang pig head to sell dog meat not only frauds others, also frauds your self.
Sincere and happy...the money come come easily just like Forest Gump/
2017-04-11 15:14
substance must meet form
form must meet substance
there is harmony in heaven
happiness and money come come easily.
2017-04-11 15:17
Be it ACE Market or what as long as it has capital preserved build-in (MOS) and earning great profit why shud I care????? Btm line is great profit with minimum risk!!!!! He selling rat meat as pig meat I dun care. Still btm line is capital appreciation is the requirement. Dun agree ok, all entitle to their respective opinions. Fair.
2017-04-11 15:23
Lots of BS in this world
But I know professors are not risk takers, not supposed to be risk takers.
People who want to write like Professors, who are prudent , conservative and risk averse do not spend all their time / assets in Ace market.
Hang pig head to sell dog meat.
Heaven and earth not in harmony.
2017-04-11 15:49
Rubbish loh....why u think kc is professor like mammy say meh ??
Just bcos kc write well ah ??
Warren buffet write very well but he is not a professor loh...!!
U must not be so naive loh...ace...not ace...!!
Professor not professor loh....!!
Just ask whether KC is a good investor not loh...!!
Raider says...yes he is a great investor loh....!!
2017-04-11 17:03
The last few months...my message to you guys is...sailang, be brave.
sailang you win
chicken you lose.
2017-04-12 00:51
Define and stay within your circle of competence.
Take advantage of Mr. Market and do not be guided by him.
Be loss adverse but not risk adverse.
When an opportunity presents with low risk and outsized returns, bet the farm.
Have the cash and the courage to bet big.
Don't speculate. Invest wisely.
Soon you will be fabulously rich.
:-)
2017-04-12 07:28
People very funny one
People lose more money sailang when the game is over than sailang when the game is on
2017-04-12 08:59
The below are stockmanmy's pick and Ooi Teik Bee's pick based on the closing price on 29/4/2016.
Let us check the performance on 30/12/2016.
Bornoil 0.15 X 14,000 = 2100
CBIP - 2.25 X 900 = 2025
Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 = 2130
Ecoworld - 1.29 X 1500 = 1935
Taan - 4.79 X 200 = 958
Jtiasa - 1.35 x 700 = 945
Total capital = 10093
Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Bornoil 0.18 X 14,000 = 2520
CBIP - 1.97 X 900 = 1773
Ekovest - 2.38 X 1500 = 3570
Ecoworld - 1.34 X 1500 = 2010
Taan - 3.95 X 240 = 948 (1 for 5 BI)
Jtiasa - 1.34 x 700 = 938
Total capital = 11759
Total gain = +1666 or +16.50%
My pick
Gamuda-WE - 0.995 X 4,000 = 3,980
Gadang - 2.08 X 600 = 1,248
Gkent - 1.71 X 800 = 1,368
Kimlun-WA - 0.705 X 1,600 = 1,128
Pohuat-WB - 0.675 X 2,000 = 1,350
WTK - 1.20 X 1,000 = 1,200
Total capital = 10,274
Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Gamuda-WE - 1.21 X 4,000 = 4,840
Gadang - 1.05 X 1500 = 1,575 (1 split into 2 and 1 for 4 BI)
Gadang-WB - 0.42 x 300 = 126 (Free WB)
Gkent - 3.04 X 1000 = 3,040 (1 for 4 BI)
Kimlun-WA - 0.67 X 1,600 = 1,072
Pohuat-WB - 0.775 X 2,000 = 1,550
WTK - 0.995 X 1,000 = 995
Total capital = 13,198
Total gain = +2,924 or +28.46%
Summary
stockmanmy gain +1666 or +16.50%
OTB - Gain +2,924 or +28.46%
I wish to post this record here for reference to avoid future argument.
I used the below magic formulae to select stocks to beat stockmanmy.
I used Margin Of Safety > 30%
I used EV/EBIT < 8
I used (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5
I used IV= (EPS*(7.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y
I used Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
I used ROIC (Equity) > 12%
I used ROE > 10%
I also used the followings :-
CFFO > 50% Net Profit
Price to CFFO <= 15
Free Cash Flow > 30% Net Profit
Price to Free Cash Flow <=20
Cash Yield > 4%
Earnings Yield > 12%
Price / Book Value < 1.5
Interest Coverage > 9
I am not an accountant, I want to talk on facts and figures only.
Thank you.
Ooi
2017-04-12 09:03
Better to Buy On Weakness
says Kenanga report today.
Weakness still want to buy meh?
Should buy when the game is on.....not when there is weakness.
2017-04-12 09:06
Every time there is a bull market
people lose more money when people buy on weakness than when people chase shares.
People still buy on weakness instead of chasing shares.
People very funny one.
2017-04-12 09:16
Beware of people telling you 30% margin of safety
Another form of hang pig head to sell dog meat.
2017-04-12 09:26
OTB always talk based on facts, not like old man KYY talk LC only, bloody stock manipulator
2017-04-12 09:32
People should chase shares ( if early enough, it is called pivotal moments) or buy when there is blood every where
Not buy on weakness.
Chase shares people normally cut loss very fast.
They would not die.
Buy when there is blood every where is called contrarian trading. Often they becomes pivotal moments.
Buy on weakness is the one that buries a lot of people in every cycle.
2017-04-12 09:35
I not keen on theoretical model portfolio.
I know there is a big gap between theory and practice.
2017-04-12 11:08
to me the market is like the weather. there will always be spring and winter. the key is stay invested ignoring the fluctuations. no one can time the market
2017-04-12 11:20
OTB
what has happened to the bet between Gamuda warrant and Econpile?
just asking.
2017-04-12 11:24
again, hang pig head to sell dog meat.
show the winning bets.....
the most popular pass time in the world.
2017-04-12 11:36
good balanced portfolio that can weather any storm.
number 150 here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ibot/120440.jsp
and also this
a defensive diversified portfolio....( from April 2016)
CBIP
Ekovest
Ecoworld
Taan / Jtiasa
Bornoil
a balance of potential with least risks.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/95698.jsp
Author: stockmanmy | Publish date: Fri, 4 Mar 2016, 12:38 AM
Eight wonders of the world..............
Bornoil, AAX, Tguan, VS, KESM, RHB, Scientex
they work as a team.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/92512.jsp
2017-04-12 11:49
"
stockraider Must not look down on people making an honest living like KC loh..!!
Whats wrong leh ?? He is one of the best value investor...raider have encountered loh....!!
His investment method using value investment is very sound as compare to manipulator like KYY loh.....!!"
Kc see the value through past figures while Kyy see the value through business and future growth.
Stockraider point of view is pure shallow.
2017-04-12 11:53
Kc see the value through past figures while Kyy see the value through business and future growth.
Stockraider point of view is pure shallow.
==================
well put.
When I say people to put more emphasis on business and future, instead of past figures, they say I am fake accountant.
2017-04-12 12:10
I look at the stock market I see this....
that the stock market is a place where people will be rewarded for assuming / taking on risk , and later proven right.
That is the economic function of the stock market.
2017-04-12 12:12
Then , there is this problem with intrinsic valuations.
Valuations are not as intrinsic as people think....
When Charlie Munger / Buffet talks about buying companies at valuations lower than the seller demands......He is literally talking about buying companies, with controlling interests and he already has plans for the acquisitions. ..They got dozens of such investee companies.
When you buy shares, you are just a passive investor waiting for dividends or price to go up....both of which you got no control.
For you, things are not as intrinsic as it is to Munger / Buffet.
2017-04-12 14:09
nothing is more intrinsic than cash companies.
Buy Puncak miss bull run.
2017-04-12 15:52
brainlessly quoting books has no learning.
what is more intrinsic than Puncak?
2017-04-12 17:23
brainlessly quoting books has no learning.
lesson for all the so called value investors around here.
2017-04-12 20:51
raider...what is more intrinsic than Puncak?
cash company very objective.
buy Puncak miss bull run.
2017-04-13 09:01
buy Choo Bee miss bull run
Why the so called value investors in i3 never learns? Never under estimate the stupidity of raider and his kind.
2017-04-13 09:03
I look at the stock market I see this....
that the stock market is a place where people will be rewarded for assuming / taking on risk , and later proven right.
That is the economic function of the stock market.
2017-04-13 10:13
B Graham and Value investors very popular around here , isn't it.?
I suppose we can all put the financial information in a spread sheet, apply a magic formula, and puff, out comes the answer...............and wait, and wait and wait for the magic formula to work its magic.
But B Graham died a long time ago, even before there is the internet.
Nobody dreams of using a horse carriage travelling to work, but people don't mind being suckered...if it is about a possibility for some money.
On stock picking, if I am to recommend one guru, one tip, it would have to be William O Neal and his CANSLIM....go google it your self
On the objective of all good strategies........don't get killed if wrong, makes a killing when right. If you can do that, you can be rich as KYY.
All chemical reactions need a catalyst. Have you got a catalyst? How strong is the catalyst? Is it reliable, dependable? Got a sponsor/ sponsors?
I will end this with 3 quotes from him..................
Quotes
"Since the market tends to go in the opposite direction of what the majority of people think, I would say 95% of all these people you hear on TV shows are giving you their personal opinion. And personal opinions are almost always worthless … facts and markets are far more reliable."
"The whole secret to winning and losing in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you're not right."
"What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower."
2017-04-14 09:00
"what seems low and cheap generally goes lower."
Too bad for all the new students of Value Investing. You are going about it the wrong way.
2017-04-14 09:19
yesterday 700 down, today 800 down, if it appears cheap to the majority....its probably baloney.
what appears cheap will go cheaper.
2017-04-14 10:53
"Since the market tends to go in the opposite direction of what the majority of people think, I would say 95% of all these people you hear on TV shows are giving you their personal opinion. And personal opinions are almost always worthless"
what is opinion is probably baloney.
The thing that is reliable is market action and what the market tells you.
2017-04-14 11:09
after finish read this *This is how the stock market works! A cold winter!* I only realized I'am one of the Red Indians too.
2017-04-24 14:56
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Introducing MY's First IPO Fund for Sophisticated Investors!
New Update. Discover investment communities that resonate with your ideas
M & A Value Partners IPO Equity Fund has been launched - Targeted 13% Return p.a
Latest Videos
Apps
Top Articles
1
南洋行家论股
2
BreakingOut
3
Koon Yew Yin's Blog
4
Bursa Stock Musings - Thoughts & Ideas
PGF Capital - insti shareholding up from 5% to 14%! (part 1)
5
The Alpha Trader
6
南洋行家论股
7
RHB Investment Research Reports
8
How to become a resilient trader
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
MQ Trading Signals
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockmanmy
I didn't post this to say KC is not successful personally or professionally.
I post this to talk about happiness, how the stock market works and the bullshits surrounding intrinsic values and magic formulas.
2017-04-11 11:19