Stockman blogs
Dnex - You have been warned
stockmanmy
Publish date: Thu, 04 May 2017, 01:14 PM
stockmanmy
0 76
Trade at your own risk. I am here only to vomit out my feelings
Now the mood has turned soft, I share with you a bit about Dnex.
From the audited accounts of Dnex for YE 31.12 2016
Share of results in associates, net of tax $123,535,000
Profit for the year $132,226,000
Almost all the profits for the year are from equity accounting of Associates
The associate company........
Ping Petroleum Limited Bermuda Exploration, development and production of crude
- oil and natural gas. effective interest 30%.
so, what is that $ 123 million associate company profit?
little is available in the Annual Report.
for that, look at Hibiscus interim results.
After tax profits for the quarter ended Sept 2016.....$ 80 million...almost all of which is defered tax write backs.
remember the hoo ha with Hibiscus? , remember how it rallied from 20 sen to 60 sen and now trading around 40 sen.?
Trapping many people around 50 sen?
Profits for the year Dnex $ 132 million, plus all the news flows, Dnex from gone from 20 sen to 70 sen ......
I think the hooha is over. I think this share will slowly retrace to 50 sen and below.
Dnex 1.745 billion shares.
look at the sales transactions
| ENCIK AZMAN BIN KARIM | 10-Apr-2017 | Notice of Person Ceasing | 130,000,000 | 0.430 |
| MR KHOO KOK SENG | 03-Mar-2017 | Notice of Person Ceasing | 60,000,000 | 0.406 |
you have been warned......don;t say this Dynamic trader have not warned you.
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1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 106 comments
downtrend just started,don't be in self denial mode. dnex stands for DUMBO U R NEXT after ekovest and iwcity.....beware also up more than 300% since jan without any concrete news.
2017-05-04 22:14
MD acquired 130,000,000 shares @ 0.430, do u guys think he doesn't know what is coming soon?
2017-05-04 22:37
your 'warning' is more likely desperate to get DNeX as cheap as you can... kikikikiki
2017-05-04 22:42
Sold off my dnex as reached my tp 0.67 which is derived based on Myeg model. From here onwards, is better to invest in myeg as it is proven and gives dividend as well.
2017-05-04 22:56
Hot, very hot...seems to attract same kind of crowd as Hibiscus earlier this year and Vivocom last year.
That is the main reason I wrote this.
You don't see me writing on other companies I just sold.
2017-05-04 23:20
Stockmanmy, here's the data:
MD Zainal Abidin acquired on:
17th Aug 2016 - 123.78mio shares at 0.25 from Censof
19th Sep 2016 - 35mio shares at 0.265 from Censof
10th Apr 2017 - 130mio shares at 0.43 from Azman Karim (who owns since 193.5mio shares before this disposal to Zainal Abidin.....)
And as of 25th April 2017, Zainal Abidin has 360mio shares equivalent to 20.6% shares of the company.
You caught the interesting point on their Profit.....good observation....and I believe you have good MNC background. And yes, of course these people in the Board are goreng kings....who's not. But look deeper..... just look deeper.
I am not sure about the price trend, but retracing to below 60 is unlikely in these 2mths.....however, who am I to tell, sentiment/any global effect can drive it in a different direction. Only God can tell. I don't play God, God needs to have deep pocket.... haha.
Anyway, I hv been accumulating. And I choose to hold them still, for now.
2017-05-05 00:38
ok..that wold have been better.
now that you mentioned it, I remember noticing it a couple of weeks back when I bought at 50 sen...but forgot about it this morning.
lets just say both Azman and Zainal would know every thing there is to know....one is the seller, the other is the buyer. The buyer thinks he can do a lot of stuffs with it and the seller thinks there is nothing more he can do.
===============================
MD Zainal Abidin acquired on:
17th Aug 2016 - 123.78mio shares at 0.25 from Censof
19th Sep 2016 - 35mio shares at 0.265 from Censof
10th Apr 2017 - 130mio shares at 0.43 from Azman Karim (who owns since 193.5mio shares before this disposal to Zainal Abidin.....)
2017-05-05 01:55
all these border permit stuffs............dream project of these UMNO Putras...monopoly money misusing government powers...
all these years, no such tax, then all of a sudden, somebody dreams it up.
what the goose can do, the gender can also do....there will be more and more nonsense in future.
does every UMNO putra just want to dream up more and more monopoly profits?
why can't these UMNO putras compete in the free market and make their living like the rest of us?
2017-05-05 02:05
while many might disagree i think this time manny got a good point. thanks
2017-05-05 06:04
you will be happy to see DNeX drop, but it's not because ur 'warning', it's market sentiment.
2017-05-05 06:25
and your initial intention were bad, ur idea of showing notice of person ceasing, aren't you?
2017-05-05 06:27
you might have a good point there, buy DNeX is no longer GLC, as stated by MD at the AGM.
2017-05-05 06:31
what's goes around, will comes around... time will proof that u r wrong. Good Luck to u.
2017-05-05 06:33
Let the price correction, this is healthy.
I insist, my 2 cents statement is correct.
$10 profit is miss leading.
This is not goreng counter.
If you do not confident, you just out 1st.
You don't have to agree.
Let see the coming report so that you decide to re enter not.
2017-05-05 06:41
Yeah, as an investor, what I like about Dnex is their debt free position......and all its dream stream income...... that's why I am still bullish that 0.60 wil be history some 1+wk ago & still maintain my position during the red sea attack yesterday.....in fact I accumulated still....haha.... but again, as any investment, exercise your own judgement and handle your own risks.
Btw, yesterday, I also accumulated Ekovest.......
2017-05-05 09:47
Deferred tax reversal as the main source of profits, negative goodwill as the main source of profits both coming from the merger accounting in oil and gas industry...I think the accounting profession needs a big revamp and I know all these creative accounting came from and are started by Americans.
I hate all these creative accounting stuffs.
HHnW >
You caught the interesting point on their Profit.....good observation.
2017-05-05 11:34
That was what I caught too when I read the annual report. I bought in @0.39 avg as I saw limited downside and huge upside potential based on its PE and PBV plus it's zero debt and net cash position. But I am not convinced (after digesting the annual report) that their quarterly EPS can top the EPS of 2Qtr16 at least in the short term of few Qtr. I would see their avg qtr EPS stands around 0.5 to 0.8cents. Reason being contribution from O&G will be flattish for some time and their IT related business only brings in marginal revenue. That said I have locked in my position @0.65 and keep a small portion (which has zero balance cost) and KIV on their next few Qtr result
2017-05-05 12:44
Best read the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkeil. He touch the subject on page 60 (Synergy Generates Energy) where creative accounting thru "Synergism" where having 2 plus 2 equal 5.
2017-05-05 13:00
Posted by jontfj > May 4, 2017 10:37 PM | Report Abuse
MD acquired 130,000,000 shares @ 0.430, do u guys think he doesn't know what is coming soon?
Did you know MD bought at 0.43s and now 0.645s and he is 27.95 million richer.
2017-05-05 13:06
Stockmanmy, yup, something like that...... U got it....and still can go a bit deeper.
..............................................................................................................................................
Stockmanmy :
lets just say both Azman and Zainal would know every thing there is to know....one is the seller, the other is the buyer. The buyer thinks he can do a lot of stuffs with it and the seller thinks there is nothing more he can do.
2017-05-05 13:17
Maybe the buyer and the sellers trying to camouflage and in the end the 28mil shared among themselves................i can also said that.
Bear in mind crude is coming down now at USD49.00.
2017-05-05 13:18
...and, talking about creative accounting, i agree. But its everywhere. SGX market has it too, as regulated as the country is. Investing has two objectves, make money....short or longterm depending on your risk appetite. Don't romance with your stocks.
2017-05-05 13:20
Yeap...one of the rule of investing is don't fall in love with your investment. Applies business logic and accounting understanding when evaluating a stock. Don't follow the herd. Follow your own instinct and not what other people say or think. Own investment, on risk and own reward and nobody else. No matter how a share price fluctuates on a daily basis with sense or no sense, over long run the market will always be efficient and the share price will always ends up to its fair value.
2017-05-05 13:25
Ayam Tua...............Glotec cantik................)).......more to come bila gas operational end of this year.
Yes, i never fall in love with stocks and there are some exceptional cases i will keep them long term......Panamy is my best investment so far.
2017-05-05 13:36
Not falling in love doesn't mean don't hold long term...some shares i have been holding for more than 10 years. To me as long as the fundamental don't change and is within a fair value basis, plus I don't need to rebalance my portfolio, I will keep holding it. Over long run, the dividend payout is more than enough to cover the purchase price of the stock
2017-05-05 13:45
many years ago, there used to be an item known as Extraordinary Items where people can throw all their rubbish that passes through the P & L.
Some bright sparks in Wall Street convinced everybody to change international accounting standards to do away with this.
Wall Street rules.
2017-05-05 14:56
Normally when you see high deferred tax reversal, you think not a bad company to have this. The company must must made a lot of money to have this huge deferred tax account. Right?
Wrong!
This huge deferred tax account is born out of the valuations of the oil fields and nothing to do with profits having ever been made.
what is that negative good will?
Let say you pay $ 100 for the oil field. Experts say the field is worth $ 150. Well....you have $ 50 worth of negative good will.
experts again......hahaha
the whole industry is a joke.
Profits used to be what you get for selling stuffs
Nowadays, profits is what you get for hiring experts.
2017-05-05 19:57
RHB research , 25 Jewels dated 5 May 2017
Dnex
recurring net profits
2016 $ 139 million
2017 F $ 188 million
2018 F $ 199 million
well....if the 2016 profits are mainly one off accounting stuffs and not operating profits, can RHB be correct?
The truth will be known when the company releases its Q1 2017 results.
In the meantime, any thing can happen.
2017-05-05 23:30
manmy, you confuse people. Profit can be fake and you are right. But something there can not be fake. I know and I think you also so know what is inside can not be fake. while you drill too too deep on the profit and you over look the rest.
Look at the balance sheet, P and L, Cash flow, performance and the future prospects.
2017-05-06 00:03
balance sheet, P and L, Cash flow are all inter linked...if analysts just extrapolate one off items as recurring items, all forecasts are wrong.
2017-05-06 00:37
Profit around 50m is real. only 89m were asset reevaluation from the total profit.
2017-05-06 07:56
yes part of the last result announced is from revaluation assets.............so it won't be repeat in the coming result. Hence, the result could be lower than the last one......in my opinion.
2017-05-06 12:05
comparison of profit should be consistent always. it is no point to compare one with asset evaluate gain and one without. At least you have to take out goodwill included reevaluation gain before comparing.
2017-05-06 12:41
if smart, should avoid Hibiscus, Dnex, Reach....these are Bursa's latest Red Chips.
2017-05-10 01:16
Red Chip is my short hand for untrustworthy accounts, untrustworthy stocks, and candidates for limit downs.
There is a feel to such stocks....just like Iwcity, potential Iwcity.
Don't want that experience, just stay away from Dnex, Hibiscus and Reach....whatever RHB analysts may say........
2017-05-10 14:06
you want UMNO putra stock? Just stick with Myeg.......and get at the price you are comfortable.
2017-05-10 14:08
People who bets on Jaks are betting that the IPP will be completed on schedule and as agreed.
If you don't agree, don't bet.
As for this new Red Chip called Dnex......all the signs are already there for all to see.
2017-05-11 12:43
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I like to compare company with similar industry, so that you get the fair value between them.
2017-05-04 22:10