Higher TIV in December

According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), the monthly Total Industry Volume (TIV) in December was the 2nd highest in 2023, which increased 9.0% MoM (+2.3% YoY) to 78.4k units. The passenger vehicle segment increased by 8.7% MoM to 71.0k units, while the commercial car segment was also stronger at 12.4% growth MoM to 7.5k units (refer to Figure 1). The higher sales can be attributed to ramp up in productions and deliveries, especially those companies having financial close in December, coupled with aggressive year-end promotions. Meanwhile, we gathered that Perodua and Toyota's production schedules were not affected by Daihatsu’s procedural irregularities. However, we expect TIV in January 2024 to be lower than the December level.

2023 TIV Surpassed the Record in 2022

For 2023, TIV increased by 10.9% YoY to 799.7k units, the passenger car segment increased by 12.0% to 719.2k units, and the commercial vehicle segment increased by 2.0% YoY to 80.6k units (refer to Figure 1). Perodua and Proton registered stronger sales of 330.3k units (+17.1% YoY) and 151.0k units (+11.0% YoY), respectively. The combined market share of national cars increased to 66.9% for 2023, compared to 65.1% recorded last year. Note that the market shares for national cars have remained strong compared to 2014–2018, hovering at around 53%–55%.

Meanwhile, the combined sales of non-national cars increased by 6.1% YoY to 237.9k units, thanks to higher vehicle volumes registered by Toyota (+8.1% YoY) and Mazda (+31.8%), which offset lower sales volume from other marques (dropped in the range of 0.3% to 31.5%) (please refer to Figure 2).

Sales of XEV Increased 69%

MAA has categorised the Hybrid Vehicles (HV) and Electrical Vehicles (EV) under the segment called xEV. The xEV sales jumped 68.9% YoY to 38.2k units. HV made up about 28.1k units (+40.4% YoY), while EV was 10.2k units (+286.1% YoY). Note that the EV sales do not include Tesla, as the new entrant is not MAA’s member. According to the media, MAA expects xEV to contribute to 9–10% of TIV in 2024, up from about 5% in 2023, and EV is expected to be 2%, up from 1% recorded in 2023.

Maintain Neutral

We reiterate our Neutral recommendation for the sector. Our TIV forecast for 2024 is maintained at 650k units (-18.7% YoY). Maintained SELL on MBMR (TP: RM4.13) and BAuto (TP: RM2.33) while SIME (TP: RM2.50) remained at HOLD. Lastly, our TP for UMW is benchmarked to the general offer price of RM5.00/share offered by SIME. We advise shareholders to accept the offer.

Source: TA Research - 22 Jan 2024