TECHfullyBREWED
Putin's Syria strikes are a long-term play for higher oil prices
TECHfullyBREWED
Publish date: Sun, 11 Oct 2015, 12:52 PM
TECHfullyBREWED
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Russian airstrikes in Syria, the first launched by Moscow outside the former Soviet Union since 1979, have set the tone for what’s to come. The escalating attacks have mainly targeted moderate, western-backed rebels. Civilians have also been hit, while Russian jets have twice violated Turkish airspace.
These immediate transgressions have shown that Putin, as always, will go his own way in this war. He will draw on as much of his military strength as he needs to, he will use indiscriminate force, and he will bully and intimidate the west’s regional allies.
In short, Putin will stop at nothing in pursuit of his goals and the international community needs to understand exactly what those goals are. Putin’s game is bigger than many commentators currently realise.
Yes, this is about Russia’s international standing, but more importantly it is also a long-term play for higher oil prices and, ultimately, a flow of oil dollars into Russia to strengthen his popularity at home.
The international aspect is relatively transparent. Putin has to prop up his ally and force his way back in from the cold on the global stage. Syria is home to Russia’s only naval base in the Middle East and has long been a buyer of Russian arms and a supplier of regional intelligence.
More importantly, however, he cannot be seen to stand by and allow Assad to fall. He needs to show the US and the world that he will not retreat from the position he staked out at the start of the conflict.
By wading into such a complicated international situation, he is also deflecting attention from Ukraine and weaving a new narrative for himself. Putin is now the bold peacekeeper, leading the charge against terrorism ahead of a hesitant US and earning a renewed place at the top table.
Whether they like it or not, western leaders now have to talk to him again. He can risk Russian lives without losing political capital at home, and can point to this sacrifice to leverage a blind eye towards continued aggression in Ukraine.
Of course Russia will also target Islamic State. The territory currently held by Isis contains important oil assets and Putin will be eager to bring these under his control. He can then play the “godfather”, dispensing cheap oil from previously Isis-held areas to his allies in the region.
Which brings us back to his primary aim. The more he can entrench himself in the Middle East, the more he can exert control over energy markets. With Iran and Iraq in his sphere he can begin to force Europe to rely on him again for supplies.
Prolonged war in the Middle East would serve Putin’s interests perfectly. The deeper and more widespread the conflict, the more world oil and gas prices are likely to rise, helping him stage an economic recovery at home and render the sanctions useless.
Ushering in better times at home is therefore Putin’s ultimate aim as he seeks to prop up a system that takes advantage of people’s patriotism and public spirit. The grand plan is for his vital oil and gas revenues to recover so he can buy the loyalty of Russia’s 140 million-strong population.
By Alexander Temerko, a Ukrainian-born British businessman in the oil industry and donor to the Tory party
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 54 comments
The Americans claimed they were bombing IS. In actual fact, they were air dropping foods and weapons to IS
2015-10-11 13:43
Russia weapon...China economic...bravo Asia....now USA taiko behsong....TTTTTPA...haha
2015-10-11 13:47
The Americans claimed they were bombing IS. In actual fact, they were air dropping foods and weapons to IS?
where you get this info?
2015-10-11 13:51
The Americans has the most powerful military in the world. They have been bombing IS for more than a year. By right they would have already obliterated all IS military facilities, right ?
But the fact is that in past few weeks, the Russians are the one that destroyed IS command HQ, weapon cache, suicide bomb making facilities, etc
Do you think the Americans are so incompetent that they were not able to detect those IS assets ? LOL
2015-10-11 14:17
This must one of the most brilliant threads to hv come out of I3 in recent times. It's profoundly cool for a commander. Especially a Commander of Dreams.
2015-10-11 14:37
To be honest, I had my own inspired speculations about Russia's real long term goals in it's latest West Asian adventure. But, I hv to be honest also, I wasn't genius enough to spot oil price as a primary objective.
2015-10-11 14:41
Posted by Icon8888 > Oct 11, 2015 01:07 PM | Report Abuse
They want to topple Assad so that the Mediterranean Sea can be turned into an American lake
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Well, one can always rely on Russia to call the bluff on some pretend, fake-phoney, disguised-as-something-else US strategy. They did it brilliantly with that proposed anti-missile missile sytem to be sited in Poland-Ukraine.
The Americans claimed that it was intended to defend Western Europe against Iranian missiles. But it was just in the wrong location. Besides, what Iranian missile could reach Western Europe at the time. The Russians knew that it was meant to set Russia up for easy destruction by a US nuclear first strike.
The base would hv been designed to mop up any weak Russian counter-strike remaining available, after it had been overwhelmingly crushed by a massive American nuke first strike.
But the Russians knew better. And they just told the US, Jungle George, small-dikked Cheney & all, to simply forget the idea.
2015-10-11 14:55
This is what I am seeing. In taking in Poland into NATO, US-NATO is clearly encroaching into Russia's western flank. And US-NATO is now obviously thinking seriously of going even further, into Ukraine. But that is definitely NOT going to happen now, given Russia's current degree of combativeness.
So, in response to the Poland movement, Russia is going to take in, first Syria, next Iran, in a Russian-led West Asian coalition, to put Russian power right next to Turkey on NATO's southern flank. It's serving notice to Israel too, to quit entertaining any overly grandiose dreams of a greater Judea-Samaria. Checkmate. On 2 fronts simultaneously.
2015-10-11 15:13
And when it crushes IS, Russia is going to get substantial goodwill from practically the whole world, Europe included. Looks like, it's going to be any which way but lose, for Russia.
2015-10-11 15:17
It serves multiple objective, if necessary, can let the war spill over to neighboring countries to make oil sexy a bit
Not my recommendation, I am just suggesting what they might have in mind
2015-10-11 15:29
They are already planning to take their war against IS to Iraq
That would be a totally new world with interesting dynamics
2015-10-11 15:31
No ww3
US does not dare to fight Russia
To understand why, spread out a map and look at Russia
US only fights when it can win
2015-10-11 15:45
Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, US didn't even dare to send arms to support Ukraine
Because if US does that, Russia will escalate
When it evolves into a war, the U.S. will ultimately win, but it will incur huge economic losses as well (hundreds of billions). The Americans don't want that
To understand the dynamics between US and Russia, just imagine US is a billionaire, Russia is a construction worker
The billionaire will ultimately defeat the construction worker, but he will loss an eye and a leg. Billionaire doesn't like that, he wants to enjoy life
2015-10-11 15:51
Well, any fight aginst IS must mean going into Iraq, ultimately. Becos Iraq is their real wellspring, so to speak. And I'm just thiking, if IS gets cornered until their back is against the wall, they might just go berserk and start disturbing or even outright attacking Saudi Arabia.
2015-10-11 15:51
Russia's Syria move is brilliant. But they need to be careful not to overplay their hand. Be smart and remain vigilant. Keep their eyes on the prize. Don't get drag into a quagmire
2015-10-11 15:53
If they move into Saudi, all hell will break lose
Oil go back 100
Bursa goes 2,000
2015-10-11 15:54
Posted by Icon8888 > Oct 11, 2015 03:51 PM | Report Abuse
When it evolves into a war, the U.S. will ultimately win, but it will incur huge economic losses as well (hundreds of billions). The Americans don't want that
To understand the dynamics between US and Russia, just imagine US is a billionaire, Russia is a construction worker
The billionaire will ultimately defeat the construction worker, but he will loss an eye and a leg. Billionaire doesn't like that, he wants to enjoy life
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No, I don't believe one can distil it down to something that simplistic. Just look back to WWII. Nobody gave the Russians much of a chance of beating Germany. Not even the US, who SLYLY stood back on the OUTSIDE, until Germany was hopelessly worn down by Russia.
And who says a billionaire always beats a construction worker. When it comes down to a fight, it's the one with the bigger, tougher heart, not the one with the most money, who eventually prevails.
2015-10-11 15:57
Come to think of it, Russia does not need to do that much to cause a spike in oil price. Just push back IS into Iraq, right up to the Saudi borders, then lob some cruise missiles over, onto some Saudi refineries and/or seaborne oil tankers, then say it was an accident, that they were actually intended to hit IS targets.
Then ... pronto ... KABOOM! Oil gets back up to 100+ per barrel.
2015-10-11 16:02
Ha ha true true true
There is nowhere US can beat Russia (just look at the map of Russia)
I should rephrase it to "even if the billionaire beats the construction worker, he himself will suffer a black eye"
2015-10-11 16:12
I am sure some Russian Generals joked about this when they started planning their Syria strategy recently
DreamCommander
764 posts
Posted by DreamCommander > Oct 11, 2015 04:02 PM | Report Abuse
Come to think of it, Russia does not need to do that much to cause a spike in oil price. Just push back IS into Iraq, right up to the Saudi borders, then lob some cruise missiles over, onto some Saudi refineries and/or seaborne oil tankers, then say it was an accident, that they were actually intended to hit IS targets.
Then ... pronto ... KABOOM! Oil gets back up to 100+ per barrel.
2015-10-11 16:14
Only it might not hv been a joke at all. The Russians are renown masters of the art of realpolitik. I mean, if were the chief commander of the Russian military, or if I were Prez VP himself, it would hv been something I would consider. And consider very, very seriously indeed.
2015-10-11 16:28
Well, in that kind of Wild West scenario, or should one say Wild West Asia scenario, then 100+ would be a conservative estimate. A very conservative one.
2015-10-11 16:42
As we discuss further, it is becoming increasingly clear to me that what Russia is doing now in Syria is to a large extent related to popping up oil
As the largest oil producer in the world, the Russians probably felt that the Midfle East is "too peaceful" to their liking
The Syria operation is probably to put in place certain level of tension to stinulate oil price
On top of that, it will create multiple other geopolitical benefits (as discussed above)
Wow I have to agree the Russians are brilliant in realpolitik
2015-10-11 16:46
I would not say that Russia is that bad, for them to make oil price as a primary objective. Anyway, they hv more oil & gas reserves in total than SA now, so they can live with cheap oil, maybe even better than SA.
But then since someone has to do the dirty job of destroying IS, and US seems to hv been pussyfooting around so far, with no clear direction or focus about anything, then Russia might as well take the job, and at the same time create other kinds of value-added stuff beneficial to Russia at the same time.
2015-10-11 16:54
Nice to have this conversation with you
I like the part where the Russians pushes IS to Saudi border and then lob a few missiles over LOL
Now I have a better feel of possible oil price direction
2015-10-11 17:04
Dude, I'm a novelist wannabe ... If you would like to check out my draft ancient-warrior action adventure novel, well, I would not mind givin ya the ... ohhh ... umm ... err ... the link ... LOL
2015-10-11 17:08
Ha ha ok ok, maybe next time...
I have limited energy. I spent most of my time reading about stocks (make money mah)
But you seemed very familiar with geopolitics. Is that related to your profession ?
2015-10-11 17:12
It's just something fun for me, Icon, and also relevant for keeping up with the latest developments ... Plus it's also good material for some casual conversation ... Especially with like minded ones ...
As for reading about stocks, there is such a thing called information overload ... I would not want to be a sufferer of that sickness, LOL ...
Seriously, though, I prefer to keep maximum free space in my head ... To maximise the gigabytes available for the most important things in life ... And making maximum profit does not mean expending maximum time or maximum effort ... Rather, the key words would be ... Focus, Clarity, Direction & Concentration ...
2015-10-11 17:33
In that regard, Icon, I would like to recommend this book for you:
'Do Less, Achieve More' by Ms Chin-Ning Chu. Grab it, and gobble it.
2015-10-11 17:36
But then, if you do ever feel like a bit of ancient action & adventure, my draft novel could be better ... Seriously ...
2015-10-11 18:10
the biggest loser will be the IS .A group of idiots who think that they are almighty will soon realise that they are just a small little powerless pawns........
2015-10-11 18:10
u guys dont have to blame anyone and anything......this is a cycle and its normal....has happened for thousands of years nothing new ....
2015-10-11 19:02
guess i wrote my statement wrongly @@...forgive me ....was just trying to imply that everything is part of the natural order aka cycle ....life cycle , war cycle , politic cycle , economic cycle , buisness cycle, and many other cycles and they are a norm. TQ.
2015-10-11 20:24
This article look at the same issue but arrive at a totally different conclusion. Instead of causing oil price to spike, it MOSTLY argues that the conflict makes it difficult for Russia and Saudi to coordinate on potential production cut
http://www.businessinsider.my/what-russian-intervention-in-syria-means-for-oil-2015-10/#v4EdoPAsXg0ZwwGj.97
2015-10-12 05:12
to be frank.This is just a TEMPORARILY MOVE to spike the crude...we are heading towards more on STRUCTURAL ISSUE WITHIN THE INDUSTRY itself...just my humble opinion..At least the spike in recent crude price will help Russia allies and Russia currency a bit..:)
what we should focus more is the 'sincerity or ability' of USA government to tame down its own DOLLAR which is the PILLAR for everything. Therefore the DXY INDEX must be watch out this week..the ability to break break 93 to 90..thats SOMETHING...
"WAR" is actually will hurt more the world GDP and every countries in this world..which will create more harm in the long run..which at this point of time if that the SUPERPOWER to choose..its definitely we are heading towards what Quran said..what Bible said..what Taurat said..however, thats still long way to go..The INFRA within that three oldest masterpiece are not ready yet even though some said are ready.
Wallahuallam..
2015-10-12 05:24
Qatari oil minister predicting oil price recovery in 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/qatar-sees-oil-price/2185228.html
2015-10-12 08:32
Don't be preaching your personal spiritual beliefs in here la, ApaNama, kawan ... This is a stock investing forum, not a masjid congregation ...
What happens when other dudes start preaching Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Baha'ism, Shintoism or whatever else in here ... Are you gonna just sit around & listen to them also ah, you think ...
Maybe you're trying to say that Qiamat is gonna happen in 50 years time, or 100 years, or 300 years, or 700 years time, I guess ... Well this earth has been around for 4.54 bil years, our sun 4.57 bil years, and our universe 13.82 bil years ... They're not all gonna collapse all of a sudden in the time frame that you might be thinking, you know ... Try reading some real science for a bit, instead of going around preaching what you personally believe all over the place ...
You can keep those things to yourself la ... Who do you want to show off your piousness to, do you think ... You show off or you don't show off also, God still knows the real genuineness & authenticity or otherwise of your iman, you know ...
2015-10-12 10:12
thumb up.....
Posted by DreamCommander > Oct 12, 2015 10:12 AM | Report Abuse
Don't be preaching your personal spiritual beliefs in here la, ApaNama, kawan ... This is a stock investing forum, not a masjid congregation ...
What happens when other dudes start preaching Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Baha'ism, Shintoism or whatever else in here ... Are you gonna just sit around & listen to them also ah, you think ...
Maybe you're trying to say that Qiamat is gonna happen in 50 years time, or 100 years, or 300 years, or 700 years time, I guess ... Well this earth has been around for 4.54 bil years, our sun 4.57 bil years, and our universe 13.82 bil years ... They're not all gonna collapse all of a sudden in the time frame that you might be thinking, you know ... Try reading some real science for a bit, instead of going around preaching what you personally believe all over the place ...
You can keep those things to yourself la ... Who do you want to show off your piousness to, do you think ... You show off or you don't show off also, God still knows the real genuineness & authenticity or otherwise of your iman, you know ...
2015-10-12 10:16
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2015-10-11 13:13