The Big Short

The Big Short 2016

sharktank
Publish date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016, 03:00 PM
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1 person likes this. Showing 25 of 25 comments

sharktank

“We’re in the midst of a real market decline, bordering on a bear market.”
Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO

2016-01-15 22:40

sharktank

Fink does not believe stocks will enter what he calls a classic bear market. "I always look at a bear market ... [as] persistent water torture, day after day after day after day. I'm not sure this is what we call a classic bear market.

But by the second half of the year, Fink said, the stock market should be higher. "Over the course of the next six months, we think it's going to feel a lot better."

"There's not that much leverage in the system," he said. "That's why all the analogies to 2008 and 2009 are erroneous. We don't have that type of leverage."

2016-01-15 22:44

Fam Jenny

With so much manipulation all over the world,which idiot can trust the price of the shares like fixed deposit.It is better to bury your money in the ground than dabble here unless it much it has stabilised.

2016-01-15 22:50

Fam Jenny

Of course God provides woman,Eve for Adam to produce humans and bless them in their marriage and ask them to be fruitful.
But God gave only one woman to Adam and expects him to be faithful to his wife and his wife will also be faithful to her husband.God instill the quality of loyalty in humans so if one is unfaithful to the other,she or he will suffer emotional pain.
Likewise in christainity the law of one wife and one husband is binding in marriage and can be dissolved only in death.
The only ground for divorce is the guilty party has committed adultery and the innocent party is allowed to remarry and whoever marries the guilt party is also committing adultery as the guilty one is not free to remarry again.

2016-01-15 23:18

citta

I am of the opinion that the plunge of china stock market could possible leads to global financial crisis. As we noticed that, recent weeks U.S market declined quite significantly and ] this is the very first time U.S market decline significantly due to external factor. Everyone almost forget interest risk hike in U.S, this has becoming less significant matter as everyone focus on China economy. Stay cautious and maintain some portion of cash, revised your strategy, anything could happen.

2016-01-15 23:30

sharktank

Investors have noticed that the stock market has gone through a radical change in the past few months.

Veteran investor Mark D. Cook, who pointed out red flags a year ago, feels vindicated. Finally, stock prices confirmed what he saw in 2014: We’re in a bear market and about to go over the cliff, he says. Here is a chat I had with Cook over the weekend.

Why do you still believe we’re in a bear market?


First, the oil and gas situation is a huge problem, and it will continue. We’re not getting bounces. Instead, oil investors just want to sell. The second problem, and it’s just getting started, is China. China is like an athlete that twisted his ankle and needs time to heal. If the ankle doesn’t heal, it will get worse, and that’s what is happening right now.

Is there anything technical that you are looking at?

Yes. First, every rally in a bear market has no traction. In a bull market, rallies will hold for days or weeks. Now we’re getting sharp “one-day wonders” that fail. Every hope is dashed. That is a strong characteristic of a bear market. Second, the NYSE Tick is registering no institutional activity on the buy side. Every rally is a chance for mutual funds to lighten positions. And this is only January. Wait until people look at their January statements. Many will be shocked.

If this is a bear market, how will investors react in the months ahead?

There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:

Stage 1: Denial

Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.

Stage 2: High Anxiety

In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.

Stage 3: Fear

In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”

Stage 4: Panic

This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.

2016-01-20 18:14

sharktank

Any final comments?

Bear markets are nothing like bull markets. The buy-on-the-dip strategy that worked in a bull market does not work in bear markets. Bull markets are slow-moving and methodical, and you may get many days in a row that are green. Bear markets, however, are violent and volatile. You can short-sell almost every rally. Rallies are short-lived while the declines last longer. In a bear market, nearly every buy-on-the-dip purchase turns red. In a bear market, there is absolutely no stock or individual portfolio that is impervious to the pain of being long.

2016-01-20 18:19

sharktank

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said today that it will cut the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratio to 3.5 percent from four percent, beginning Feb 1.

"The decision to reduce the SRR is undertaken as part of a comprehensive effort by BNM to ensure sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial system, and to support the orderly functioning of the domestic financial markets," the central bank said in a statement.

The central bank added it has relied on its monetary operations, including the reverse repo facility, to provide liquidity to the banking system as net external outflows reduced the amount of liquidity in the system. As of Jan 21, this amounted to RM40 billion, it noted.

The SRR is a monetary policy instrument to manage liquidity and credit creation in the banking system.

BNM held its key policy rate steady at 3.25 percent.

- Reuters



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/327788#ixzz3xseK08Ks

2016-01-21 20:15

gray

stupid bank negara. the right thing to do is cut interest rate. but it fear ringgit collapse and more outflow, but it dont want to be seen as doing nothing. thus cut the meaningless SRR.

2016-01-21 20:21

sharktank

Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s economy is headed for a hard landing, a slump that will worsen global deflationary pressures, drag down stocks and boost U.S. government bonds.

"A hard landing is practically unavoidable," he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua from the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. "I’m not expecting it, I’m observing it.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/george-soros-says-he-expects-hard-landing-for-chinese-economy

2016-01-22 22:23

sharktank

“This year is going to be a difficult year, and the balance is on the downside,” Soros said. “If you have a real bottom, it’s always retested.”

2016-01-22 22:26

Koon Bee

Post removed.Why?

2016-01-22 22:27

paperplane2016

Better than u icon8888

2016-01-22 22:28

Koon Bee

Lol

2016-01-22 22:35

Icon8888

yoh, Koon bee is not me lah. Just check the stocks he is interested in. They are different from mine. Very obvious

2016-01-22 22:36

Koon Bee

Post removed.Why?

2016-01-22 22:37

koobee

Post removed.Why?

2016-01-22 22:39

Ryan88

Icon, you better stay away from Koon bee, else I will ban you also. His gang make noisy at i3 everyday, can say that you are one of them also.

2016-01-22 23:35

Ryan88

Moneyface, another Koon bee new account again... why you guys keep talking nonsense everyday, get out from i3

2016-01-23 08:55

Ryan88

Not against me. See your comments early morning go quarreling with others. Definitely a nonsense guy.

2016-01-23 09:08

sharktank

Dt waste time bashing each other. Grab this technical rebound to make some CNY ang pow. : )

2016-01-23 20:10

sharktank

no more CNY ang pow. : )

2016-01-26 16:54

sharktank

1月21日,我在本栏指出“大鳄来了”,1月22日,大鳄的代表人物索罗斯高调地向世界说他已开始沽空亚洲货币,认为中国经济正在硬着陆。大家留意,索罗斯指的是中国经济“正在硬着陆”而不是“预测会硬着陆”,也就是说,他认为官方所公布的GDP数据是假的,真实的GDP增长率很低,索罗斯说他估计中国经济只有3.5%的增长。

索罗斯不是以一己之力狙击成功

数十年前,索罗斯四处狙击、沽空,所用的方法永远不变,就是先发出惊天动地的言论制造恐慌,然后以强大的财力大手沽空,沽到一般群众恐慌、大量投机者跟随他一齐沽空。我上星期指出,索罗斯不是以一己之力狙击成功,而是成功地引导被狙击国家的国民一齐自我沽空自己本身的货币与股市。

散户跟沽空必惨败

1997/98年亚洲金融风暴离今日已久,年轻的一代一无所知,中年以下的一代也没亲身体验过,大家千万不好轻视索罗斯的能力。不过,大家也千万不好跟从索罗斯沽空,他财力雄厚,挡得住挟空仓,一般散户在沽空之后,一遇挟空仓必然惨败,无力补仓。

http://cj.sharesinv.com/20160125/15592

2016-01-26 20:12

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