赢势焦点 Thematic Focus

Vaccine theme is it over heat?

thematicfocus
Publish date: Mon, 07 Dec 2020, 09:58 AM
thematicfocus
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Following Message

By Stevent Hee

First of all, let us take a look at the current CHINA vaccine player. Hereby, I will list down those player
 
1. YONG TAI
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/yong-tai-collaborate-chinese-company-covid19-vaccine-development-distribution-malaysia
 
2. HWGB
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/11/641976/ho-wah-genting-begin-production-distribution-covid-19-vaccine-after-phase-iv
 
3. SOLUTN
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2020/09/24/solution-group-unit-inks-deal-with-cansino-for-vaccine-distribution/
 
4. BINTAI
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bintai-kinden-eyes-vaccine-foray-cushion-me-volatility
 
In this article, it said that 30% of Malaysia expected to be vaccinate , out of this 30%, 20% come from PFIZER. Meaning to say 10% of Malaysia population expected to be vaccinate which we expected is only 3.2 million base on the statement which release.
Further information can be obtain by clicking this link : https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/covid19-30-malaysians-expected-be-vaccinated-next-year
 
Am I right to say those non government-link vaccine player is aiming this 10% - 20% of the Malaysia population to earn the profit from the distribution or fill-&- close for the vaccine.
 
So, let assume the best case scenario which we are eyeing 20% which come to about 6 million population.
 
Assume each person take 3 jap of the vaccine which total amount come to 12 million of jap.
 
Before we look into all this. Base on the news obtain from The Edge Market it said that Covid-19 vaccine offer to Malaysia under the COVAX facility is $21, said Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin.
Source obtain from https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ceiling-price-covid19-vaccine-set-us21-under-covax
 
This is the cost price for Covid-19 Vaccine. But don’t forget this news as well.
 
The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, which requires two doses, is priced at approximately $3 to $4, according to the Financial Times, citing supply deals agreed through to Oct. 7.
 
The company has said the vaccine will be delivered at a price of no profit, regardless of where in the world it is being delivered, “as long as all these orders have been taken in the next few weeks and months.”
 
Source obtain from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-how-much-they-cost-whos-bought-them-and-how-theyre-stored.html
 
If this vaccine proven is effective and yet is selling at cost price, I would like to know why does Malaysia Government don’t procure from AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine but rather purchase at higher price. 
As a consumer, we always want some thing good and cheap, am I right? So, would you rather go for more expensive or cheap?
 
“Besides that, to encourage the public to get vaccinated against infectious diseases like pneumococcal infection, influenza, and Covid-19, the government has decided to expand the scope of tax relief on vaccination, which will be benefitted by individuals, their spouses, and children, limited to RM1,000.”
Above statement obtain from https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/11/06/rm3bil-on-covid-19-vaccines-higher-tax-reliefs-for-medical-expenses-budget-2021/
 
Can we conclude the maximum cost for vaccine is about RM500 per jap, 2 jap which will cost RM1000. Speculate of the selling price, no fact support till we purchase.
 
If you would to take a swab test, it will cost you RM300 – RM450. So, you would rather keep on go for swab test or go for vaccine injection which cost you around the same price.
 
Swab test already cost you this much, why don’t you go for it to take a jap.
 
Having say that, it is burdensome for some family if they got big family members. Assume, we have 8 – to 10 family members, that is pretty big sum for some of us. 
 
What will you do? Wait for government to give us free vaccine. Am I right?
 
Even we need to wait for a year, you don’t mind waiting and just take precaution by wearing face mask and distance ourself from the public to be safe. We can save up money by cutting down expenses, unless company that we are working for is paying for the jap, that is different story.
 
So, let assume the cost of selling price is around RM300. Profit Margin about 20% which come to RM60 per jap. Per person, those vaccine player counter probably is earning RM100 – RM120.
 
Assume 3 million person is getting 2 jap by next year, so, profit will be RM600 million.
 
At the same price, we don’t forget other non china vaccine player such as Dpharma, Pharma as well. They might take a slice from the pie as well.
 
So, the thing is that are we over optimistic about the vaccine play even approval not in place.
 
 

 

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