Trading With A View
(Tradeview 2019) Forward 6 Value Picks for 2019 (TM, PPHB, DKSH, Elsoft, BJ Food & Perstima)
tradeview
Publish date: Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 12:13 PM
tradeview
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Author of Once Upon A Time In Bursa : The MONEY Equation. A corporate strategist, lawyer & avid investor who has two great passion in life: Financial Markets & Real Estate. A true fundamentalist and financial writer motivated to tip the scale in favour of retail investors. Believe the stock market can be force for good.
Contact for update : tradeview101@gmail.com
Telegram: https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Contact for update : tradeview101@gmail.com
Telegram: https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Dear fellow readers,
Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :
Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
or Email me at: tradeview101@gmail.com
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Many are looking back at 2018 wondering what went wrong and how could things be so bad? For Tradeview, we recommended significantly lesser stocks in 2018 and was very prudent in our investment due to the uncertainties. Apart from QL, Poh Kong and a handful of public calls, we didnt do much public calls. This was because we did not have a clear direction.
We also suffered losses like many fund managers and investors. We also held certain stocks like MYEG, Eforce, Layhong which plummeted tremendously. However, thankfully these are only a small proportion of our holdings. In fact, our cash holding was the largest and we will publicly admit we actually made significant numbers of calls to our private group members in the month of November and December. We called close to 8 stocks in the month of November and December. These 2 months collectively has more stock picks than others. We finally saw the opportunity especially to collect some of the stocks which was in our watchlist for a long time. Our cash holdings was aggressively poured into these stocks.
We would like to share with all that our picks are mid term to long term and definitely we will hold it into 2019. It also a collection of stocks which can weather the storm and turbulence. Amongst those, we would like to share are the following and at the price of entry as below :
1. TM
We called TM earlier during the selldown at around RM3+ and when it was sold down, we waited until RM2.40 and below to call a further entry to average down. YB Gobind definitely rock the telco industry after becoming minister. Of course this is in the best interest of the people and users, which we have no objection. However, this severely impacted the related sector and companies of which EPF, KWAP, PRS funds are among the key investors in these companies. Indirectly, we may benefit from lower monthly telco fees but the losses from the holdings in these blue chips is far greater. Having said that, we know the actual valuation for TM is much higher than RM3 and this was a good collection opportunity. We therefore called and collected.
2. PPHB
Similarly for PPHB, our initial valuation for the stock will be RM0.70 at least. The company continued to outperform and severely undervalued when FBMKLCI mid cap index fell close to 25% for the year. This was a good opportunity to collect at around 55 sens and below. The downside to this stock is because there is no dividend policy and may appear as a value trap. Nonetheless, the whacked down share price far below its actual value provide a good opportunity to enter a mid term value investment
3. DKSH
When we first called DKSH at RM3+, our estimated would be around RM4.60. When the share price fell to RM2.50, we further averaged down. Many have asked us why are we so bullish with DKSH and the purpose behind. Well, for one DKSH fell along with other blue chips and even out of the Syariah list. However, this company has very strong management and the international clientele which is the foundation of their distribution network gave us the confidence to hold. Whilst the margin is this, the valuation is cheap compared the mother company and regional players. It's book value is RM3.79 and the PER is trading at 6.9x hence it is a stock that will definitely rebound in the long term and one that we are willing to hold through the storm.
4. BJ Food
To be honest apart from the Starbucks franchise, we actually dont really like the other brands under BJ Food. The money churner is still Starbucks and it is Msia's market proxy to the US's global brand. We are also no particularly impressed with the management of Berjaya group management as a whole. A strong management would be able to do way better than the current valuation. However, we note that the company has disposed of their loss making Kenny Rogers business in Indonesia and starting to return to black. Additionally, substantial shareholder is buying to support the share price. We think this year will be turnaround year for BJ Food coupled with the consistent quarterly dividend of 3% full year, can look to collect at below RM1.35.
5. Perstima
Our old favourite is back in the radar as the valuation for it should be at RM6 due to the high dividend yield, stronger revenue growth and opening of new markets and manufacturing facility in Philippines. Should the company declare dividend this year to be 20 sens, the yield at current price would be about 4%. Even the PER is undervalued based on the revenue growth and improvement in profit margin. When the market is as weak as it is, we advocated to our readers to consider buying on weakness. It remain was one the steady quiet mover that has rebounded for the year from a low of RM3+. There is still upside to RM5+ in the mid term.
6. Elsoft Research Bhd.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/buying-the-dip-works-nicely-a-30-year-history-of-routs-shows
There are definitely others to the list of stocks we have watched, observed, consider, and called. Mostly with the market continuously being volatile, when the time comes, opportunity knocks, and value surfaces, what would you do? The above link demonstrates the beauty of buying on dips and weakness over chasing rallies.
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Email me at : tradeview101@gmail.com
Food for thought:
Like many famous investors, Li often bought when others sold. When riots inspired by Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution broke out in Hong Kong in 1967, Li invested in the city's property as prices tanked.
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 28 of 28 comments
Among the i3 writers, stock picks from tradeview r more reasonable & acceptable.
2018-12-16 12:43
Elsoft poor,selection. Ta oredi warned, earningspeak, next q may report weak result
2018-12-16 13:34
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/10/pentamaster-and-elsoft-expect-record-turnover/
Elsoft chief executive officer C.E. Tan said the group was on track to achieving its best results.
“Our nine-month results had also surpassed the turnover and net profit of last year.
“Elsoft posted RM65mil in turnover on the back of a RM33.7mil net profit for the nine months ended Sept 30, which is higher than the RM61.3mil and RM27mil registered, respectively, for the whole of 2017.
“We expect to see a revenue growth of over 30%. This is an achievable goal as the average earnings per quarter in 2018 is about RM20mil,” he said.
Tan said the smart-sensor segment contributed 60% of the group’s revenue, while the automotive and general lighting segments 30% and 10%, respectively.
2018-12-16 14:58
trulyinvest is a contra kaki, his words no substances at all.
The truth is he love to bluffing like he is the magic contra player ...
Liar cant change its spot rite ?
2018-12-16 15:53
Liar tetap liar lah ,
Never put your word into other mouth.
You just a pity rat which love bluffing in i3 la
2018-12-16 19:31
None of the 6 stocks under my radar. Totally no common ground to start with..lol
2018-12-16 19:31
U still want to bluff like a contra magician ?
Always chun chun call no matter how bad a market ?
Common la ! Silly la
2018-12-16 19:33
I'm able to better far better Short Term profit after 509.
Need not me to show the real time results la...
Frens of mine they know I'm saying the truth here.
Not like trullyinvest the monkey magician... bla bla bla
2018-12-16 19:36
However, i hv just stop all my speculate trade since last 2 week.
2H 2018 alone already made my profit jumped by1.5 times from 2017.
Long term stock position cap below 30% of my overall portfolio weighing .
Would exercise by trimming another 10% , if 1620 broken.
See ,i share my method.
Comparing to truelyinvest, he share only his magical contra chun chun call, which i doubt he just lie all this while lo.
2018-12-16 19:42
Haiyo ! Go eat musangking la !
Be seriously la !
I'm lecturing that biadab truelyinvest leh.
2018-12-16 19:48
In 2019,
I'll ask myself a big Q ?
What kind of potential trade breadth can trigger my coming back to speculate or adding position ?
1H2019 will it a continuing Downward?
2H2019 rebound ?
Or, worst part is , bear conquering the whole 2019 ?
Could that possibly have 2nd & 3rd scenario ?
Pls share....
2018-12-16 19:53
no matter TA or FA, which way can make money is a good way. I know the call above are safe calls, with dividend and growth, actual business. not contra play. those who dont believe shouldnt call other names. i am fair, be respectful. Let results in by next few quarterly results to prove the outcome ok? Market bad, good there is still direction from some kind Gurus
2018-12-16 20:34
Ur method? Canot pakai la. Keep shouting buy eg from rm1 to 40sen ka? Pls,lau, vanish from i3 beter. Or u x tau malu ka? Kikiki. U punya muka lagi tebal dr great wall of china
2018-12-16 20:36
I've never really get tradewin's picks.
Their basis is usually quite weak, with research that does not go beyond the copy paste of data from annual report. No new insight.
Every time someone ask others to pay money to join whatsapp or telegram. I can't help but feel there is some factor of pump and dump.
2018-12-16 20:37
I din c ur method all d while. I just c u constsntly post nonsense article on eg.. big liar
2018-12-16 20:40
Choivo, good to c u again attacking Tradeview guru. U chg name, used to Jon Choivo who called the lousy Prolexus, ask ppl to buy RM1.40... What happen? I think Prolexus is 50+ sens. U still holding?
apa mau lagi? follow ur lame unit trust that is down 10% this year? con people to buy ur unit trust scheme like money game?
2018-12-16 20:45
I remember Choivo con guru attack Tradeview bro call QL at RM3.5. U insult Tradeview all the time like stalker! I think u shud insult more than every time u insult Tradeview stock fly! hahahaha. I learn from Tradeview bro for 2+ yrs, I enter QL RM3.5 sold RM7 in 1 year. Pls dont be a faker ok? bad karma, later ur unit trust all lose money.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/143376.jsp
2018-12-16 20:47
Trulyinvest,umno has already got tajuddin najis and jahit.
I3 dont need your rubbish comments here la ?
Very irritating to see someone incompetent trying to play hand job all day nite ler.
U siok sendiri, others feel want to vomit u know ?
2018-12-16 20:50
I rest my case here...
As i always tespect to tradeview .
Just beh tahan, to see truelyinvest the idiot simpily comments things he dont know.
2018-12-16 20:57
no worry VenFx bro, many wannabes in forum. Keyboard warriors and conman. Level too low waste of time
2018-12-16 21:01
Tradeview, among the six which is the one u like the best? Is the order of companies based on ur preference?
2018-12-16 21:31
the only stock i like is tm. if bj food is not under bjc, then will be worth looking at.
2018-12-17 23:08
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Erudite
thanks!
2018-12-16 12:34