THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

TOP REASONS WHY FOREIGN FUNDS MUST RETURN TO MALAYSIA & MAKE IT THE DARLING OF EM ONCE AGAIN!!

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 19 Mar 2016, 05:02 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,844
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Last Week Saw KLSE Broke 1,700 Index Convincingly. This Is Due To The Optimism of MARK MOBIUS pointing Out The Top 3 Emerging Markets Now Attractive For Foreign Funds. Namely, Malaysia, Vietnam & Brazil.

 

These, I think, are the Top  Reasons Why Foreign Funds Will Continue To Rush Back to KLSE

 

1) MALAYSIA IS STILL GROWING ABOUT 4% to 5% PER YEAR IN A WORLD OF ZERO OR SUB-ZERO GROWTH

Euro & Japan now pursue Negative Interest Rates. Hong Kong is facing the worst recession in 2 decades according to Li Ka Shing. Singapore Industrial Output is Contracting. China is trying to prop up its market. As a result Funds are Moving Out of China into South East Asian Bourses - especially Malaysia!

 

2) CRISIS CREATES OPPORTUNITY FOR FOREIGN FUNDS

CALAMITIES OF 3 PLANE CRASHES (2 MAS & 1 AIRASIA), POLITICAL WRANGLING AMONG MALAYSIAN LEADERS & IMDB FIASCO Have Caused Funds To Be Cautious. While Others Have Fled VALUE HAS NOW EMERGED FOR FUNDS LIKE TEMPLETON.By Mark Mobius.

Sir John Templeton said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"'

Due to 3 plane crashes Airasia crashed to a low of 80 cts. Now up 100% already (don't chase any more)  During 9 - 11 When 2 planes crashed into New York Twin Tower SIA in S'pore crashed from S$15.00 to S$7.00. It was the time to buy then.

RED SHIRT & YELLOW SHIRT POLITICAL IMPASSE CAUSE THAI STOCK MARKET TO CRASH TO ITS LOWEST.

ONLY TEMPLETON FUND DARED TO BUY THAI SET AT ITS BOTTOM!

 

3) THE BEGINNING OF SHALE OIL IS THE END OF CRUDE OIL BOOM & WEAK RINGGIT & THE END OF SHALE OIL BOOM IS THE REVIVAL OF CRUDE OIL & STRONG RINGGIT.

In Year Calvin Tan Research was the FIRST TO SEE SHALE OIL DANGER emanating from North Dakota. And Told All to Flee Palm Oil and O & G Stocks then. 

Nov 23, 2014 ... calvintaneng ....  Shale Oil from North Dakota is flooding the World Market right now (Google "You Tube" Shale Oil North Dakota).
klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/calvintaneng.jsp?fp...

 

calvintaneng .... down after Calvin warned him that Shale Oil from North Dakota will hammer palm oil prices. ..... Calvin saw Shale Oil Pumping in North Dakota!
klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/.../calvintaneng%20.jsp?fp...

 

Calvin warned KYY to sell Jitasa at Rm2.70 then.

AND NOW WITH ONGOING EL NINO - TIME TO STRONGLY BUY BACK OVERSOLD JTIASA SHARES (Also RSAWIT)

 

 

Dec 11, 2014 ... E Mail calvintaneng@gmail.com. Tel 0193394010 Weekday After 12 .... 3) Shale Oil from North Dakota hammering Malaysia. So we must invest ...
klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/calvintaneng.jsp?fp...

 

Finally, the Price War Between OPEC & Shale Oil has caused 60% of US Oil Rigs to collapse! Now is the time of reversal for the Fortunes of KLSE & RINGGIT!

SO FOREIGN FUNDS ARE RUSHING BACK!

 

4) THE FED IS HOLDING BACK ITS FIRE - No Danger For The Foreseeable Future

In USA people are now euphoric due to the weaker US Dollars. They expect US Companies with Exposure on Foreign Shores to Perform Better as Profits remited back to weaker US Dollars will boost profits (Ha! this was what Exporting Furniture Stocks from Malaysia go GaGa over? Strong US Dollar - Weak Ringgit equal higher profit. This Is Now What USA people are thinking in similar lines due to weak US Dollar!)

As A Result Funds That Have Sold Malaysia & other South East Asian Bourses Are NOW TAKING MONEY OUT OF USA & INVEST BACK INTO OVERSOLD MALAYSIA. For 2 powerful factors:

i) They Expect Ringgit to Rise Against US Dollar

ii) They Expect Oversold Blue Chips & 2nd Liners in KLSE to Perform.

 

5) THIS IS THE OUTWORKING OF NATURAL LAW - JUST LIKE WATER FINDS ITS LEVEL SO MONIES GO AFTER BEST YIELD ASSETS - RINGGIT & KLSE STOCKS, OF COURSE!!

In Africa Animals Migrate From Parched Lands To Lush Vegetations. So Funds Migrate to Malaysia for 4% or 5% Growth while back home growth is negative and at best, enemic.

In winter people travel to places where there is warm and sunlight. This is the economic winter of Europe, Japan, Hong Kong & USA. So they come to KLSE where there is sunshine and hope.

In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is King. So in the darkness of economic gloom their countries can see only darkness. Malaysia can  SEE  growth. China One Belt One Road, Transpacific Partnership (of which President Obama visited Malaysia twice at the behest of AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce) After TPP will be the Translocation of US Factories From Shenzhen to Iskandar, Malaysia.

Malaysia will Receive THE LION SHARES OF US INVESTMENTS

Both In Setting Up New Factories by More FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)

Or Better Still - Buying KLSE While So Many Companies Are Selling Cheap after the carnage!

Every one from Calvin Tan in Singapore & Mark Mobius from USA can SEE

What about YOU?

 

Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 43 of 43 comments

Bruce88

New cycle has just begin, Foreign fund mgrs smelled it...

2016-03-19 18:13

calvintaneng

Coldrisks,

Thanks. May I know who is Mr. Wan?
Anyway, I won't be selling any Iskandar houses if I could help it. Prices of landed houses like 1 and 2 storey houses will shoot up when HSR From KL Arrives in Iskandar & Spore Thomson MRT Reaches Down Town Johor CBD.

Now is the time to buy Johor Baru Houses & Not To Sell Any Yet!

2016-03-19 18:14

Hiu Chee Keong

But watch out april 17 when the oil production countries meet. If the freeze fail, then oil will fall again, and ringgit will fall again. And about june when british vote on Brexit. Also when US election later this year, if donald trump is in upperhand, then might not a good news for the world :D

2016-03-19 18:23

calvintaneng

Hiu Chee Keong,

Latest news tell us that Gulf countries are tightening their belts and preparing to negotiate

Oil's dramatic price fall has sent shock waves through many Middle Eastern economies.
Generous fuel and food subsidies have been slashed, new taxes introduced, and social benefits axed.
The years when oil cost $100 a barrel and generated $1 trillion in export revenues are gone, and the oil-rich Gulf nations and their people are being forced to accept a new reality.
Here are some of the painful measures they've introduced:
Kuwait
Kuwait enjoys one the world's lowest oil production costs. The country also boasts one of the oldest sovereign wealth funds.
Still, the collapse in crude prices is forcing Kuwait to think the unthinkable: tax company profits.
The plan for a corporate tax rate of 10% follows a move by all Gulf states to roll out a 5% sales tax during 2018.
"The fact that Kuwait is going down the taxation route for corporates is a very different form of ... revenue generation," said Monica Malik, chief economist for Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
Related: Oil crash leaves Gulf graduates panicked
United Arab Emirates
The UAE was the first Gulf country to target fuel subsidies when it introduced market pricing for petrol last summer.
Robin Mills, CEO of oil consultancy Qamar Energy, said the move triggered a domino effect. "Once one country feels able to take the step of removing subsidies as the UAE did in this case and that seems to go okay, then other countries get some confidence in following them," said Mills.
All six countries in the region are now cutting subsidies, raising prices at the pump and the cost of water and power.
Saudi Arabia
Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook for the Saudi banking system on Wednesday.
It highlighted Saudi Arabia's 14% reduction in public spending this year as a key factor behind the move.
The region's largest oil producer has already introduced deep spending cuts, cut subsidies, and even slashed its foreign scholarship program.
Related: Big money is betting against Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Qatar is expected to run its first budget deficit in 15 years in 2016. The host of the 2022 World Cup has built up a huge sovereign wealth fund and so is better protected than some of its neighbors.
But even Qatar has had to make cuts. The ruler of the country, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, was quoted by a state news agency as saying the government could no longer "provide for everything."
It has raised prices of petrol by up to 35%, pushed up water and electricity prices, and ordered state-owned institutions to reduce spending.
According to some, these cuts also led to the closure of the Al Jazeera America news channel.
Related: Gulf investors look to India with hope
Bahrain
Bahrain raised petrol prices for the first time in more than 30 years in January, and cut subsidies on energy. Last October, the government also cut subsidies on meat, which led to a doubling in the price of beef and chicken.
Bahrain's government announced a wide-ranging reform program earlier this year, saying the country needs to diversify and cut spending.
Oman
Oman has also hiked the price of fuel, and announced an increase in corporate income tax to 15% from 12%.
CNNMoney (Abu Dhabi)
First published March 17, 2016: 5:35 AM ET
Promoted Stories Recommended by Outbrain

2016-03-19 18:27

calvintaneng

British vote on Grexit is a non event for Malaysia. As for Donald Trump being voted into power?

VERY GOOD FOR MALAYSIA - A MODERATE MOSLEM NATION!

I have read Donald Trump's Superb Investment Skill in Real Estate.

HE IS ONE OF THE GREATEST ENTREPRENEUR AROUND.

VERY VERY GOOD INDEED FOR MALAYSIA ESPECIALLY AS OBAMA ALREADY PAVED THE WAY BY TPP!

2016-03-19 18:30

Angel_Joy

Calvintaneng, I know it is too late to recover my losses,

but YOU are responsible to my RM 1500 losses, at least partially.

Please buy 2x RM 100 Digi reload coupon and send the code to me
angeljoy@gmx.com

to compensate part of my losses.
I hope God will forgive you

2016-03-19 19:18

calvintaneng

Angel_Joy,

I am not in Malaysia now. This is the way to recover your losses.

As to Jtiasa I first called for a buy at Rm1.18. Why didn't you buy early at Rm1.18 but only bought it at Rm1.50 AFTER it had gone up?

Now with CPO nearing Rm2,700 a ton you should buy more at Rm1.38 to average down your cost. Then wait 18 months till September 2017.

SEE if CPO crosses Rm3 & Rm4. Then Jtiasa will trade between Rm2.00 to Rm2.70. And you will not only recover from losses but even be making Very Good Monies!!

2016-03-19 19:24

PlsGiveBonus

Too much weeds for you today

2016-03-19 20:35

Harold Huong

These Calvin T very patient...so many ppl get angry to him but he even steady than Sun. Still blogging every moment.

2016-03-19 20:35

andychucky28

I used to drive around Iskandar. Looks like Ghost town every Sunday.

2016-03-19 21:29

calvintaneng

Andychucky28,

I think you should drive to AEON in Bkt Indah, AEON Tebrau City, KSL City, Johor Jaya Family Food Court Area, Sutera Mall area or TESCO Bandar Sri Alam & SEE If you can find a parking lot for your car.

2016-03-19 22:31

kohsk4115

calvintaneng why rsawit? pls enlighten me

2016-03-19 22:49

calvintaneng

Kohsk4115,

I about to go to bed. Why RSawit?

The Top Boss of JTiasa bought CHUNKS Of RSawit at 50 cts and above. So I think it is well supported.

RSawit has only 100% Pure Oil Palm Play. So it will benefit from El Nino without dilution of holding logs or timber.

And it has escaped further tax for foreign labor as tax is only applicable for Peninsular Malaysia only. So Sarawak is exempted.

Another positive factor is the Pan Borneo Highway which will unlock its land value someday

Good night

2016-03-19 22:59

smartly

will genp benefited from this cpo price at 2700 ?

2016-03-19 23:08

kohsk4115

no wonder quarter result making loss still no big drop...
then is quite clear operator is in it...

2016-03-19 23:58

buddyinvest

Calvin, I really admire your hard work. Bravo!

2016-03-20 08:24

CCCL

Calvin, did you notice that the monthly production output for certain plantation company is declining due to ELNino. So eventhough the price of CPO going north, their revenue going south...Suggest you guys check their monthly production output before placing your bets.

2016-03-20 12:14

calvintaneng

CCCL

I fully expected that to happen.

Production kept decreasing while price kept increasing.

It is Ok if Prices Roar To Life while production slowly decrease.

I also expect that When CPO price should cross Rm3,000 to Rm4,000 a ton every Palm Oil Grower will look to more efficient CPO extraction then.

So the Focus will turn to CBIP then.

Investing is like a chess game.

You don't just see one or two steps ahead. Professional Chess Players can SEE 7 to 8 steps ahead. And Top Expert can SEE how the game is expected to end.

2016-03-20 12:20

duncan2

calvin...any nice landed house to recommend near austin/johor jaya? or near jurong singapore ok for me too, btw, the most happening area near jurong is it bukit indah Aeon?

2016-03-20 12:28

CCCL

CBIP use to be a hot stock, but now too many around. Even now Dolphin..

2016-03-20 12:32

duncan2

Calvin

So the nearest place in johor to jurong point is nusajaya? So do you know any nice landed property in nusajaya? As i always go to jurong for business purpose so would prefer to stay somewhere in JB near jurong..:)

2016-03-20 12:52

CCCL

So to you the dead stock can come alive like hamyi fang sang ( salted fish reborn as live fish ). Probably true but one thing to note that all darling stocks when they grow bigger and bigger , the less attractive they are....to small time investors like us.

2016-03-20 12:58

calvintaneng

Duncan2

I know of one Brand New SemiD Cluster House in NusaJaya.

It is a Corner Unit with about 4,500 sg ft land.

It has 4 rooms & 4 baths & freehold. It is about 10 minutes walk to GP Bus Interchange Which has buses directly linking to Spore Jurong Point.

It is quite cheap around Rm680,000 only.

However the CFO is not yet out. It is expected to be out by June 2016
And this is a bumi release lot.
For first Buyer A Chinese or Any Race can buy.
But since it is a bumi lot you can only sell to a bumi later.

For long term use this is a real bargain.

2016-03-20 12:59

calvintaneng

Yes CCCL,

I like to play safe all the time. They say, "kiasu" in Singapore. In the US one very kiasu guy is my Sifu. He said, "NEVER TO LOSE MONEY" Rule No. 1
Then he said Rule No 2 is to remember, "NEVER TO LOSE MONEY" His name is Warren Buffet. I have strictly followed his 2 rules by my own rule "HE THAT IS LOW NEEDS FEAR NO FALL"

Buying fallen stocks at rock bottom like Pm Corp at 8 to 9 cts was my favourite.

And so these Waseong fallen from Rm2.00 to only 72 cts awakens my attention. So is Maybulk & Syscorp. Other cold, cold stocks are YTL Power & DRB. I reckoned that if TNB Share Price surged past Rm13.00 why should YTL Power lagged so far behind.
And if POS is SO HOT why not DRB who owns POS?

2016-03-20 13:06

duncan2

Calvin

Thanks for your recommendation, really appreciated it.
I prefer smaller unit as we r only 3 family members lol...cluster house too big for us as we r renting cluster semi now, only use up one bed room, 3 others are empty haha...if got one storey also can if you come across any new development with huge discount if got...

2016-03-20 13:08

10bagger10

Calvin sifu, hevea can buy now?

2016-03-20 13:09

calvintaneng

Duncan2

If you can wait, UEMS & Mulpha going into joint venture will bulid 2 storey houses soon in Gerbang Nusajaya. These are in future prime area near HSR Station & Motorsport City. And it is only 5 minutes to Spore Tuas. As to price and size they are still not finalized yet.

2016-03-20 13:12

calvintaneng

10bagger10

Calvin sifu?

Sifu can have 2 meanings.

1) Sifu = Expert Teacher
2) Sifu can also mean Si as in "SEE" and "fu" means "bitter" in cantonese.

Haha!

I hope my advise will not bring others to "see bitter".

Yes, coming back to Hevea.

If US Dollar should strengthen Hevea should do well. If US Dollar weakens then Hevea will face headwind. As future is unknown I can't predict correctly.

If I am you I will switch to Palm Oil Stocks which are More Predictable Due to OnGoing El Nino.

Final decision is yours.
I wish you best of luck.

2016-03-20 13:17

10bagger10

Ksl leh? Drop many ade..

2016-03-20 13:22

calvintaneng

KSL at this price is Ok. Insiders have bought around Rm1.25. So it should be well supported.

2016-03-20 13:23

CCCL

Calvin, Thanks. For me better to follow this rule: penny wise pound foolish. They must be a thousand of reasons why thay have fallen so cheap..
Like to invest in simple and straight forward business and not like those big white elephant mega companies, they just give us a joy ride...you should know better than me which compaines....

2016-03-20 13:26

10bagger10

Sifu, what is your view on kfima? Fundamentally seems solid but price seems dun move much?

2016-03-20 13:26

calvintaneng

Yes CCCL,

You are correct.

10bagger10,

Kfima is a good stock.
It was once my favourite.
When my Johor Sifu gave me PTaras Jaya at Rm1,40 I in turn gave him KFima at 35 cts.

I bought his recommendation of Ptara at Rm1.40 & made good money. But he didn't follow me to buy Kfima at 35 cts. Years later after my Johor Sifu read about KCchongNz recommending both PTaras Jaya & Kfima he started to buy KFima above Rm2.00. Life is really funny. I really laughed after my Johor Sifu told me now Kfima is good.

Then one day I was in OSK Johor. I met my Johor Sifu's brother. He also bought KFima at Rm1.78 & asked me how?

I told him his Expert sifu brother bought Kfima above Rm2.00 so he should be all right.

I think Kfima is still a good stock.

I had sold it long ago, though.

2016-03-20 13:36

10bagger10

Thank you sifu.. i had earn a lot when buy jtiasa at the last round it surged up. ..keep up the good job! Thank you!

2016-03-20 13:40

johnny cash

Ringgit will become stronger, stay far away from export counters, now new theme play is in moulding stage, choice is construction sector

2016-03-20 14:26

fayeTan

This article is better than your previous one. But can u please avoid capital letter?

2016-03-20 14:57

duncan2

calvin thanks for your infor, i'm not rushing if you know when they will launch can you just inform me?

Btw, when can i view the crude pail oil technical chart? I can't find it in investing.com where i normally could get everything there.

Thanks

2016-03-20 15:17

4444

Climatology and physical oceanography expert Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang was quoted as saying the drought would be likely to continue affecting the whole region, with Sabah and northern Sarawak being the hardest hit in the next two months.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/03/20/scorching-heat-until-june-says-weather-expert/

2016-03-20 15:21

4444

Not everyone benefit from El-Nino. Sarawak planters will be hit somewhat.

2016-03-20 15:22

Ven Felix

ME:
That's the most important criteria i do practise. But, very touch if we dont know WHY we are holding it.. ( Of course ! Very often, it's return over risk are very impressively )


Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 20, 2016 12:49 PM | Report Abuse

Yes CCCL,

CBIP was once a hot stock. Now gone cold.

I like to Buy Out Of Favour Stocks when it is still cheap

2016-03-20 15:26

calvintaneng

Mr. Liew of HELANG CAMAR hailed from Sabah. He started his Used Car Dealership in KL before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98. His Used Car Business thrived in 1993-early 1997. He told me he still have half of his capital tied in the Oil Palm Plantation Lands in Sabah. He wanted to sell off his Plantation and put all the capital into the booming Car Business. I advised him not to do it.

Then The Asian Financial Crisis Struck in End 1997. He told me his accumulated profits for 3 years were wiped out within 3 short months. And he is staring at further losses from Unsold Stock of Cars. However, his Oil Palm Fruit Bunches were fetching good prices. So his losses were cushioned by the Booming Palm Oil Prices.

By May 2001 (4 years later) the Used Car Market Fully Recoverrd and he was doing well once again. However, Palm Oil Prices Crashed Below Production Cost! The cost of fertilizer, worker’s wages and overhead costs is more than the actual selling price of palm fruits. Trees were left idle, fertilizer sold back to supplier & workers retrenched. With the downturn of Palm Oil Prices he concentrated his energy on the Used Car Business.

Calvin comments on this Article Taken from JBHOUSEFORSALE WEBSITE

THE IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION

In 1997 The Asian Financial Crisis Hit. But Palm Oil saved the day due to the EL NINO PHENOMENON then.

The Same thing Happened in 2007/8 When Great Recession Hit! Only Palm Oil Stocks went against the trend & surged upward.

Will history follow again in 2017/8

Just wait & SEE.

2016-03-20 15:40

calvintaneng

Duncan2

Try this one

www.mpoc.org.my/Daily_Palm_Oil_Prices.aspx

2016-03-20 15:46

calvintaneng

Yes Fayetan,

Avoid Capital letters?

I am addicted to it. Ok, I'll try to change some.

2016-03-20 15:48

Post a Comment