THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Implication & Ramification of Trump's Win on Malaysia if TPP is scrapped & FDI reversed (Calvin Tan)
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Publish date: Thu, 10 Nov 2016, 02:31 AM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi Guys,
We watched with abated breath the dramatic win of President Trump as the US 45th President!
By now we know It Was An Election of the American People (70% who voted are Whites! Many of them have been bypassed in the promised illusive Great American Dream. The Democrats have only taken care of those in the Western Belt of Silicon Valley, Hollywood & the Gambling Crowd of Las Vegas. And in the Northeast the Wall Street Gang who enjoyed FREE MONEY by endless QE)
While all the media went Gaga over Hilary the hardworking neglected Whites of the American heartland are marginalized. So were those in the Bible Belt States. So Trump went after these neglected groups. And with the blessing of the Bible Belt Churches One State After Another Capitulated to Trump!!
From his beginning Trump has only One Message: Bring Back Vital Jobs Lost to China! Bring Back American Factories That Have Moved to Mexico, China and even Singapore. Bring Back the Trillions of US Dollars earned oversea. And kept abroad to escape high taxes in the USA. Stop unfair imports subsidized by weak manipulated currency.
All these will change with the changing of a new President called Trump! His message hit home crystal clear in no uncertain sound. And the American Heartland stood up and voted him with One Mind & One Voice. It was a resounding Victory for Republicans - Sweeping Trump into power & went on to take both the House & the Senate. It was a complete victory!
Now what will happen? Or what is going to happen?
Calvin Tan Research found these answers
1) America is raising a Barrier from the Onslaught of Globalization! From now America's doors are shut to unfair competition - "real or perceived". Trump has promised to raise tarif against Chinese imports. He has also promised to scrap TPP - this will hit both Vietnam & Malaysia.
2) In coming days the electrical & electronic exporting companies from Malaysia to the US will be hit. How? Will US raise tariff on Malaysian Imports like they promised to do to China?
3) Although Obama has been to Maslaysia to spearhead the setup of TPP - urged on by AmCham (American Chambers of Commerce). This is to contain the Expansion of China's power in the Far East. Trump has no interest to contain China. Uppermost in his mind is the well being of US Workers first & foremost.
So TPP is now a foregone conclusion. It's off & over now. What then? There will be an incentive for US Companies to uproot & relocate back to American soil. To provide necessary jobs that can make America a great nation once more.
For this reason Trump will also reduce tax to 10% from 35% for all Funds repatriated back to the USA kept abroad due to high taxes. This will be in the Trillions! And these Funds will go into all necessary infrarstructure works like new roads, bridges that are crumbling that need replacing, highways, Mrt, airport, seaport & there will be lots of jobs for millions of Americans.
4) Ha! Trump has a brilliant idea for USA. What about its impact on China, Malaysia & others?
Prepare to accept slower growth. Exports will cascade downward. So all export stocks will be hit hard. Any exceptions?
Yes, of course. Rubber gloves, palm oil & other manufactures that USA cannot produce effectively will still be exported.
5) What other impacts?
As export to USA decelerates will China take up the slack? You better don't bank on it as China itself will face 30% to 40% trade tariff! So there is no escape. Now is the time to shift your strategy with the shifting of a new paradigm framework.
MALAYSIA WILL HAVE TO DO MORE PUMP PRIMING. IF EXTERNAL DEMAND SLACKENS GOVT SHOULD STEP IN TO STIMULATE INTERNAL DEMAND.
SO MALAYSIA SHOULD ACCELERATE MORE INFRAR WORKS, MORE INTERNAL EXPANSION THAT PROVIDE JOBS AND GROWTH.
THAT'S WHY CALVIN HAS PREPARED WELL AHEAD TO
1) BUY INTO GLC LINKED STOCKS.
2) UTILITIES THAT ARE RECESSION PROOF
3) CYCLICAL PALM OIL DUE TO THE EL NINO PHENOMENON.
I HAVE COMPILED THESE 10 STOCKS (AS I HAVE AVOIDED ALL EXPORT STOCKS)
1) MRCB (TOD FOR BANDAR MALAYSIA)
2) POS (ECOMMERCE IS A SUN RISE INDUSTRY)
3) DRB (OWNS 2 COMPANIES WITH DEFENSIVE QUALITIES: POS (POS has survived for 200 years. AND PUSPAKOM)
4) BPURI (INSIDERS BOUGHT AT 50 CTS)
5) PBA (WATER IS A BASIC NECESSITY)
6) YTLPOWER (GOOD DIVIDEND)
7) CBIP (WILL BENEFIT FROM CPO PRICE REBOUND)
8) THPLANT
9) BPLANT (HIGH DIVIDEND)
10) OPCOM (FIBER OPTIC)
PLEASE STAY SAFE: REMEMBER: RETURN OF CAPITAL IS MORE IMPORTANT THAT RETURN ON CAPITAL
MAY ALL INVEST SAFELY THROUGH ALL THE VISSICITUDES OF LIFE
BEST REGARDS
CALVIN TAN
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Discussions
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Not every American company or factories will relocated back to America..............for God knows the reason. If Trump were to imposes something like sanctions on imports from around the world, the other side can too.
I don't think as a good businessman will have that mind.
It is based on mutual benefits and 2 ways trade.
Don not overly concern.
2016-11-10 09:12
Speakup,
Pm Corp like UMW are my long term investment. For Umw it is already 12 years since 2004. Pm Corp almost 10 years already. After the GE14 bull run I will add more Pm Corp and other undervalue shares.
Yes,
I think USA has fired the first salvo of protectionism. Hopefully it does not degenerate into a tit for tat with other nations. So we must watch carefully how things develope from here.
Protectionism will be very bad for open economies like Singapore, Korea and Japan. In 1937 when USA scaled back on pump priming it went back into depression.
I hope we don't face that year again. If not prepare for a lengthy slowdown.
2016-11-10 09:22
Correction:
Open economies are Singapore and in a lesser measure Malaysia. Korea and Japan are both exporting powerhouse.
2016-11-10 09:24
American companies and factories operate from a suitcase? Like today decide, next week buy plane ticket, back in USA, woohoo!
So, .. what happens if the next election goes back to the Dems again?
2016-11-10 09:31
The more fearful outcome is European Union might disintegrate. Will those populist parties in Europe defeat all those gomen in power in coming elections ???
2016-11-10 09:32
America still the greatest power will go isolation soon, just like Greatest China during the MING dynasty loh....!!
China on the otherhand is slowly expanding world influence....it will catch up and expand in the next 20 yrs loh....!!
Msia today export more to china, the number 1 trading partner.
Good thing....Trump will cutdown on America kehpoh policy that will reduce billions and billions of USD.
They will also work closer with Russia too loh....!!
2016-11-10 09:59
Only those who bought wrong stocks while they go down call them a long term investment
2016-11-10 10:19
Investor,
My longest stock holding is UMW which I bought in year 2004 at Rm2.40 after split.
Over a 12 year period I see UMW crossed Rm14.00 and back now to less than Rm6.00.
Of course I had sold off and taken back my original capital. What I am still holding now is All Free UMW shares which I still receive free yearly dividend.
My family bought a shoplot at Rm18,000 45 years ago. Today it is tenanted for Rm3,300 pm. The building is now worth more than Rm1 million if sold.
But why sell? The original capital already taken back thtough years of rental. Now is only free money.
So I like Pos/Drb. Pos has a 200 years history. I think Pos/Drb should last another 100 years. Really can invest long term mah!
2016-11-10 10:40
Talk long term but really acting short term.
That shoplot was probably your grandfather's good foresight which you benefited, hence making you think you very clever.
Trump has not even woken up from sleep, much less even step into office, and you can already know what his future moves will be.
2016-11-10 11:12
There is already too much daydreaming.
- US needs M'sia
- Trump will change his mind over TPP
- everything as usual
If everything us as usual, why the Americans vote him ?
US need M'sia - The greatest piece of bullshit
One politician here kept mentioning Soros. Soros did not speculate RM during 1998 crisis. He was the one who leaked out that some locals did.
An lots more bullshit
2016-11-10 11:51
yes...................any Malaysian who wished Trump will win get his wish.....but a suicidal wish.
it is all bad news for Malaysia , no good news.
a factless and simple goon, Trump is the founder of the birther movement.
it is no good for Malaysia, no good for the world....what about climate change?
2016-11-10 11:52
Under Trump admin, United State will have close door policy like in the China.
Officially the end for America the world leader in almost everything.
2016-11-10 11:57
Blink22 Malaysia's interest is tied up with the interests of New Yorkers and Californians and Silicon Valley.....not those red necks from the rust belts.
2016-11-10 11:58
If the Americans wish for an "as usual" environment, Clinton would have won.
But the wanted something radical n Trump is prepared to do it.
2016-11-10 11:58
Trump want to build great wall build road build bridge build this build that, they will need a lot of raw materials, think what will they need to build a steel wall?
2016-11-10 12:00
Under Trump admin, United State will have close door policy like in the China.
Officially the end for America the world leader in almost everything.
That is what is coming.
For example, if US needs cheap oil, Trump will use all means to make the price of oil goes down. Whether in doing so, those OPEC members will collapse is not his to care. I think that is what Trump is saying. America first.
2016-11-10 12:02
juni.............Trump the simpleton cannot handle a complex world....mark my word.
2016-11-10 12:04
Investor,
Yes, I have read many excellent books written on Trump and also by himself on Real Estates Investment Strategy. Trump is one of those rare Value Creator in real estate business.
I have copied some of his ideas in my renovation work in Iskandar.
I think Trump also co authored a book called WE WANT YOU TO BE RICH with Robert Kiyosaki. This is an excellent book which everybody should read.
2016-11-10 12:13
Najib is smart guy....We don't know what he did with 1MDB money . Who knows he could spent millions dollars behind to support Trump campaigns before election.
2016-11-10 12:18
Up_down,
Yes, Najib is by far the smartest Pm of Malaysia so far.
Only thing is, he must clear himself of perceived corruption. If his integrity can be restored then it will be great for Malaysia. I hope he ends well. Hopefully not another Marcos or Suharto please.
2016-11-10 12:25
Calvin. Logically, Najib would have placed his bet on Trump since no hope from Hillary to help him clear his name. Let's see how US would treat 1MDB case after Trump in power.
2016-11-10 12:30
Agree. Hope 1MDB case close after Trump take over.
Posted by Up_down > Nov 10, 2016 12:30 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin. Logically, Najib would have placed his bet on Trump since no hope from Hillary to help him clear his name. Let's see how US would treat 1MDB case after Trump in power.
2016-11-10 12:34
Talking abt personal friendship to end investigation into money laundering on 3 individuals who are not even the government ?? Why must Trump interfered?
2016-11-10 14:37
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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Calvin already sold bjcorp, mui, mpcorp, mulpha, perisai, alam???
2016-11-10 07:45