THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

MEDIA PRIMA AT 89 SEN VERSUS DUTALAND AT 66 SEN (BOTH STILL UNDERVALUE) Calvin Tan Research

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Publish date: Mon, 09 Oct 2017, 01:51 PM
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THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Mon, 9 Oct 2017, 01:39 PM   |  >> Go to Blog Dashboard

  

IN TIMES LIKE THESE CALVIN GOES DEFENSIVE: TOP 10 REASONS FOR BUYING MEDIA PRIMA NOW!

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Hi guys/gals & dear fellow investors of i3 forum,

No matter what people call Calvin = conman, holland king, flying headless chicken? or by whatever or whatsoever name?  It does not matter at all . Only the bottom line counts. And also consistent long term performance. I almost thought of selling all my shares in December 2016 & switched all into CASH just like I did in year 1997/8 and year 2007/8 (only Opcom excepted). But I resisted the fear. After considering the wreckless money printing of World Governments by US, Japan, UK and all other countries in unison.

So keeping Cash in the Bank is also quite dangerous in these changed circumstances.

It's like this.

Suppose our wealth is pooled together as a sea of MILK in the world's oceans. And supposing the nourishment we derive from it is our daily Milk of 1 litre per day. The nutrient in it is sufficient for each day's need. Now suppose if US or Another Country like UK start pouring in water (instead of Milk) the Milk in the oceans will be diluted. If they poured equal water to equal part of Milk - then the nutrient in the Milk will be diluted by half.

So now the same litre of Milk looks the same. But its nutrient is diluted by 50%. By the same token we only get 50% nutrient from the Milk now. And to make it up we need to drink 2 litres instead of the usual one litre BEFORE DILUTION! So to protect our Milk Quality WE MUST REMOVE IT FROM THE OCEANS!! And preserve its Value!

This is how Calvin looks at monies kept in the Bank. IT IS A LOSING PROPROSITION IN THESE TIMES OF MONEY PRINTING! MONIES CREATED BY QUANTITIVE EASING! FIAT MONIES CREATED OUT OF THIN AIR AND POOLED INTO THE WORLD CURRENCY SYSTEM! THE PURCHASING POWER OF RINGGIT WILL BE ERODED!

With only 3% to 3.5% FD Interest per year Cash itself it subjected to unintented dilution by money printing. The consequences for all will be the destruction of permanent wealth! SO WE CANNOT AND MUST NOT HOLD ON TO CASH.

As Gold, Assets, Houses, Trees, Minerals Cannot be Created Out of Thin Air - Calvin thinks it is safer to convert Cash into the safety of Real Assets like Gold, Real Estate, Bonds/Shares of Companies (Companies with Real Assets & also Real Income Generating Businesses). Just like getting out our Milk from dilution by water we MUST TAKE OUT OUR MONIES FROM THE DILUTION OF MONEY PRINTING.

Question is where to keep our monies safely?

In Gold? Maybe in small quantities as a form of Insurance. When Saigon fell to Communism in year 1975 Vietnamese Boat people escaped only with real Gold & US dollars.

In Real Estate Like Land Houses? Yes! Calvin thinks Landed Houses below Rm500,000 offers great value in Iskandar, Johor. At least these are Real - Real Estates - and they give decent dividends like 5% a year.

In Bonds? Too dull for Calvin. I bought CIMB Bond and got 11% yield one year. Not bad. But dull. So I give it a pass.

In Foreign Currencies? Forget it. RINGGIT IS NOW OVERSOLD - THEREFORE THE MALAYSIAN RINGGIT IS THE BEST BUY>

In Stocks? Yes! Of Course!

That's why I am here in i3 investors' forum. In the most popular investment forum of Malaysia!

I must tell you I am no Sifu. Only a man of like passion subjected to greed and fear like anybody else. Only thing is this. Because I am fearful of Cash losing its intrinsic value due to money printing I must invest it. But how, where & what?

So I must study. And study from every one from books and in real life. I am not infallible. But bear with me. I am doing my best. My best effort to help & not to hurt. 

Tonight Calvin brings you one good defensive stock

MEDIA PRIMA!

Why Media Prima? 

These are my Top 10 Reasons for Buying Media Prima

1) HIGH NTA - MEDIA PRIMA HAS HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY

Media Prima at Rm1.08 is selling at Huge Discount to Revised NTA. Note: The NTA stated is only Rm1.33.

Calvin stated "Revised NTA" to reflect the True Instrinsic Value of Media Prima's Valuable Assets.

If you look at Media Prima's Properties in the Annual Report you will notice that like POS - Media's properties are all listed at Old Book Value.

In fact Media Prima has depreciated instead of revaluing its Assets over the years

You will notice that these 5 properties have only One Ringgit Value. One Ringgit for a house? Yes, in Media Prima's listed Properties

See

15. Damai Laut Holiday Apartment, Lot F2-01-03A, Jalan Titi Panjang, 32200 Lumut, Perak Freehold - 5 August 1997.

990 sq  Apartment 14 years    Book Value RM1

Did you notice that MEDIA PRIMA Owns a 990 sq ft Holiday Apartment in Lumut, Perak. Bought in 1997. The Book Value is stated at only One Ringgit?

 

And there is another similar Apartment in Damai Laut also stated at Rm1 book value.

 

Let's turn to the City now:

17. Lot No. 2.30, South City Plaza, Seri Kembangan, Petaling, Selangor.

 Leasehold 604 sq ft .   Retail Lots 8.......RM 1

Ha! a 604 sq ft in Sri Kembangan, South City Plaza (Retail lot) Book Value also Rm1

And 2 more Retail Assets in Mines Wonderland aslo at Rm1 book value each.

 

 

Now let's look at some Real Gold Mines of Media Prima

Please go to Media Prima 2015 Annual Report & Scroll down to Properties owned by Media Prima

23.  31, Jalan Riong, Off Jalan Bangsar, Kuala Lumpur.  Freehold -  Year 1972

407,387 (Built up)  81,174 (Land area)  Head Office. Age of building  42 years. Book value:Rm5,357,356

Take a closer look at property no. 23.

This is the Old HQ of NEW STRAIT TIMES PRESS IN JALAN RIONG 

Land size is 81,174 sq ft (just short of 2 acres)

Built up is 407,387 (about 9.35 acres of office space)

 

NST Press acquired another piece of land near its back in year in Jalan Liku (year 1986). The building is stated at book value of Rm49 million (it is the extended head office of NST)

So the One bought in 1972 has a book value of Rm5.3 million while the one bought later in 1986 has a book value of Rm49 million.

 

What is the current TRUE VALUE OF THESE 2 NST BUILDINGS IN YEAR 2017 TODAY?

For comparison my neighbour bought a 2 storey link house in Lorong Maarof, Bangsar Park in year 1970 for Rm18,000. Today a similar house in Bangsar has appreciated to Rm2 millions

If a 2 storey link house in Bangsar now worth Rm2 million. What will be the worth of 2 acres freehold land with 9.35 acres built up space worth in Bangsar today? Surely it cannot be Rm5.3 million?

 

Image result for nst office in jalan riong picture

 

Above are two buildings belonging to NST Press which Media Prima Took Private for a song.

 

   
Bangsar, Kuala Lumpur
Type 2-storey Terraced House For Sale
Size 1760 sqft
PSF RM 1,193.18 psf
Built Year - 0
Listing ID 24391274
Tenure Freehold
Developer -
Furnishing Unfurnished
Floor Level -
Listed on 5 days ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

\

And so all the Assets of Media Prima are sitting On Gold Mines After Gold Mines!

If we just conservatively double the NTA of Rm1.33 to Rm2.66

Media Prima at Rm1.08 would be selling at a nice 60% Discount to Calvin's Revised NTA - Big Margin of Safety!

This is our First Line of Defense!!

 

2. INNOVATION OF NST PRESS & MEDIA PRIMA

I was first drawn to NST Press in year 2005 when Dr. Neoh Soon Kean included NST as one of his monthly digest stock picks. He highlighted that NST has shrunk in size to a small tabloid print and will save much cost. But after owning NST for sometime I saw NST taken private by Media Prima at a very low price. I am glad to buy into Media Prima now. I SEE that the Assets of NST are still at old book value there. Untouched through the years. Literally golden lands of Bangsar going for a song then. 

 

3) LATEST QUARTER UNDERPERFORMANCE WAS DUE TO INNOVATION

The loss of Rm109 million last quarter was mostly due to restructuring expenses.

If minus the Rm104.5 million expenses for restructuring exercise the losses would be a mere Rm4.5 million only. This has been overlooked by analyst - therefore the unnecessary sell down!

See

The New Straits Times Press (Malaysia) Berhad (“NSTP”), a subsidiary of the Company, undertook a restructuring exercise for its regional printing plant (“RPP”) operations. This involves optimising the Group’s printing plant capacity to unlock potential cost savings in line with expansion into digital and new business initiatives. Under the restructuring plan, NSTP will cease the operation of its Ajil and Senai RPPs in Terengganu and Johor respectively. A review of the recoverable amount of its other RPPs that are subject to impairment was also performed and impaired accordingly.

Money well spent will come back in future profitability!

 

4) RECESSION PROOF BUSINESS. PART ONE: PUBLIC LISTED COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS

In KLSE there are over 1,000 Listed Companies. Each Company is required to publish An Annual Statement for AGM in either NST PRESS, THE STAR Or THE SUN DAILY NEWSPAPER.

So this recurring Business of AGM Reporting will bring business to both NST Press of Media Prima & Star Newspaper. And many GLCs being Govt owned will chose to publish in NST Press.

 

5) RECESSION PROOF BUSINESS. PART TWO: SOCIAL ADVERTS: OBITUARY, BIRTHDAY & WEDDING ANNIVERSARY

Apart from Advertising of Publicly Listed Companies there is obituary for death, birthday and wedding anniversary.

Some people still put up memorable obituary in Newspapers for Loved ones died decades ago.

This is another form of recession proof advertising. As Malaysia ages expect more VIP & VVIP to have their obituaries printed in full page or half/ quarter page.

 

6) High Debt Backed by Even Higher Net Cash & Very High Net Asset Backing

Media Prima's Rm300 million borrowings are in ringgit. They are backed by Rm430 millions of Cash & Bank Balances. And buffered by even Higher Net Tangible Assets which could be liquidated for Cash if needed. So there is high margin of safely.

 

7) CASH SURPLUS IN RESERVE ENSURES CONSTANT STREAM OF YEARLY DIVIDENDS

 

As you can SEE above. Since year 2011 Media Prima has been giving double digit dividends (except for year 2016 where total dividend is 9 cts.

 

8) GOVT OWNED GLC MEDIA PRIMA EXPECTED TO GET MORE PROJECTS THIS GE14 YEAR

For example SEE

MEDIA PRIMA BERHAD

 

Type Announcement
Subject OTHERS
Description
Award for the design, build, operate and transfer of advertising media of Projek Mass Rapid Transit Lembah Kelang - Jajaran Sungai Buloh -  Kajang for Mass Rapid Transit Corporation Sdn Bhd.

Media Prima Berhad ("Company") wishes to announce that Big Tree-Seni Jaya Consortium (“Consortium”) (an unincorporated consortium comprising Big Tree Outdoor Sdn Bhd (“BTO”) (Company No : 318264 M),  a wholly-owned subsidiary of Media Prima Berhad, and Seni Jaya Sdn Bhd (“Seni Jaya”) (Company No : 109563 X), had on 28 September 2016 received a Letter of Acceptance (“LOA”) from Mass Rapid Transit Corporation Sdn Bhd (“MRT Corp”), for the proposal submitted by the Consortium on 16 June 2016 to design, build, operate and transfer advertising media equipment with the concession rights to sell and display advertising on trains and transit facilities of Projek Mass Rapid Transit Lembah Kelang - Jajaran Sungai Buloh - Kajang for MRT Corp (“MRT Advertising Concession”). BTO is leading the Consortium based on a percentage ratio of 60:40 (60% BTO and 40% Seni Jaya)  for the MRT Advertising Concession.

 

The request for proposal for the MRT Advertising Concession was for the following packages :-

 

Package A: Station Advertising

Package B: Exterior Station

Package C: Train Advertising

 

The LOA to the Consortium is for Package B (Exterior Station i.e. Piers to Viaduct and Ancillary Buildings) of the MRT Advertising Concession to the Consortium on an exclusive basis. The Exterior Station concession includes advertising opportunities along the MRT train line which covers a distance of approximately 41km (excluding tunnels) covering key populated areas such as Sungai Buloh, Kota Damansara, Bandar Utama, TTDI, Damansara Heights, Cheras and Kajang.

 

The MRT Advertising Concession is for a period of 10 years after the date on which the First Phase of the MRT Lembah Kelang - Jajaran Sungai Buloh - Kajang (“KVMRT-SBK LINE”) becomes ready for commercial operation, the final date of which shall be notified by MRT Corp.

 

The KVMRT-SBK LINE has a track length of 51km having total of 31 stations and 58 trains. It is expected that the First Phase would commence its commercial operation at the end of 2016 and the whole system by middle of 2017.

 

Moving with the times Media Prima is given the rights for both Train Station & In Train Advertising in MRT & LRT Networks.

 

 
CUBIG@Bukit Bintang
Strategically located in the heart of Kuala Lumpur city centre. Cubig Digital Series is the first-if-its-kind in the region delivering high impact message in executing animated connectivity across the screens with multiscreen synchronization effect. Its flexibility also allows simultaneous video advertisements to be displayed on all sides of the cubes. 

Targets approximately 2.4 million traffic monthly at Bukit Bintang

 

9) MEDIA PRIMA IS CASH COW FOR AMANAH SAHAM BUMI & PUBLIC MUTUAL FUND FOR LONG TERM DIVIDENDS

Ha! With such stable dividends many Govt Funds are buying into Media Prima for Long Term Dividends

Among them are

a)SKIM  AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTRA

b) GIC of GOVERNMENT OF SINGAPORE

c) GREAT EASTERN LIFE INSURANCE

d) AIA INSURANCE

e) JP MORGAN BANK

f) CITI BANK

Go and SEE all Top 30 Shareholders of Media Prima are from Investment Funds of Govt, Banks & Insuance Cos.

 

10) TOP REASON FOR BUYING MEDIA PRIMA

Price has Fallen to All Time Low of only Rm1.08. This qualifies Calvin's 3rd Rule - He that is low needs fear no fall.

This low price presents a wonderful opportunity to lock into the High Quality Assets of Media Prima (Buying those Bangsar Lands & Offices for a song), getting good dividends. Supported by Net Asset more than debt. And recession proof businesses like Public Listed Companies AGM advert & obituary advert. And this year of GE14. Plus above all opportunity to buy into Bargain basement price.

See Chart

 

MEDIA PRIMA BERHAD (4502)

Company Website 
Annual Report 
General Meetings


MEDIA PRIMA BHD (4502) Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calvin additional comments on October 9th 2017

After recommending Media at Rm1.08 it fell further below 70 sen. And Calvin commented that Media was oversold. So time to buy more.

One MayBank Lady Manager bought at Rm1.20. Then added more at 70 sen. So her average cost is 90 sen.

Today she has almost recoup back her cost. And as Media powering up to cross Rm1.00 she will be making good money

This is the reason why if you have found a good stock do not hesitate to average down if the fundamental is still in tact.

 

Regards

Calvin

More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments

John Lu

Sochai forever is a sochai

2017-10-09 23:25

apolloang

election stock no growth of whatsoever.just can speculate for short to mid term gains

2017-10-10 00:32

GGecko

sailangable? i like this newly coined words, kikiki, ok sailang it is..

2017-10-10 11:03

KLCI King

The quality of calvin tan not only touch floor, it is digging hole now

2017-10-10 16:19

Thomas Pang

joker of the century

2017-10-11 00:47

joetay

@Thomas

i rephrased for u.

Posted by Thomas Pang > Oct 11, 2017 12:47 AM | Report Abuse

most thick-faced joker of the century

2017-10-11 00:59

John Lu

@Thomas and @Joetay i rephase for you

Most thick-faced sohai and sochai joker of the century


joetay
962 posts
Posted by joetay > Oct 11, 2017 12:59 AM | Report Abuse

@Thomas

i rephrased for u.

Posted by Thomas Pang > Oct 11, 2017 12:47 AM | Report Abuse

most thick-faced joker of the century

2017-10-11 07:05

wotvr

You forgot to mention about their growing business segments such as Big Tree Outdoors(the outdoor advertisement division), Cj WoW shop which has been expanding quite quickly for e-commerce side and their transformation into a digital media company along with future contribution from newly acquired Rev Asia. The newspaper and TV segment will exist but their contribution will be less significant in the future where they need to do enough cost cutting exercise. Media will be a different sort of company once they complete their turnaround plan.

2017-10-11 07:26

shpg22

Traditional media is a sunset business. Most of their advertising revenue will be eaten by tech gaint (google, facebook etc).

2017-10-11 10:59

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