THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
"The stock market is a devise for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Warren Buffet, Calvin Tan comments
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 24 Mar 2018, 06:16 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,841
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
"The stock market is a devise for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Warren Buffet,
These are wise words for all.
Now let Calvin illustrates. Illustrations are like opening windows to let light come into a dark room so that we can see or understand things better.
What did Warren Buffet mean by his statement, "THE STOCK MARKET IS A DEVISE FOR TRANSFFERING MONEY FROM THE IMPATIENT TO THE PATIENT"?
It is like this
A BUSINESS LIKE PLANTING TREES TAKE TIME TO GROW. LET'S TAKE A BUSINESS LIKE MRCB FOR EXAMPLE.
IT IS A MULTI DISCIPLINED BUSINESS IN
1) PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT
2) ENGINEERING, CONSTRUCTION & ENVIRONMENT
3) INFRASTRUCTURE & CONCESSION
ALL THESE TAKE TIME.
And to date MRCB has secured Unbilled Sales of Rm5.2 Billions
Last week it just secured another Rm7.5 BILLIONS to develoop Kwasa Damansara Lands
So it totals Rm12.7 BILLIONS
For Rm5.2 BILLIONS the Billings will come by phases for these coming quarters in year 2018 & 2019. So they are here soon. Real CASH Coming In.
For Rm7.5 BILLIONS the Monies will Roll in from 2018 to 2030.
Now all these are secured projects mostly backed by Malaysian Govt. The Main Owner is EPF. So whoever win the GE 14 Election has EPF to govern & they should do well as EPF belongs to all the people of Malaysia, irrespectiive of politics, religion, race, skin colours or callings.
Now let's come back to the Jobs already awarded & profits expected
Among the Jobs are LRT3 JV with GKent PDP of Rm9 Billions
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2017/04/03/mrcb-george-kent-jv-picked-for-lrt3-after-assessment/
Expected fee is 6% for Rm9 Billions which is Rm540 Millions Fee. So MRCB will get Rm270 Millions in Profit. Since PDP is just paper work 6% profit is excellent. But for real physical Infrar jobs profit could be as high as 20% to 30%.
So let's take 20% as a benchmark. Rm5.2 Billions could translate into Rm104 Billions Profits.
That means 46.6 sen for MRCB.
And this single Rm7.5 Billions for Kwasa Damansara Lands at 20% profit could garner another Rm1.5 Billions profit. That means another 68.4 Sen profit.
But that is for 2018 to 2030 year (12 years). So let's divide 68.4 sen by 12 = That's 5.7 Sen Profit per year for 12 year period.
And what is the Total Profits for Total Job Awarded so far
So add 46.6 sen to 68.4 sen = Rm1.15
YES!! That is the PROFIT VALUE
RM1.15
THESE FIGURES COULD BE CALCULATED BY GOING TO MRCB REPORTS UNDER BURSA. Any accountant or Auditor could go there and SEE it. Only the quantum of profits we might differ.
Now the PRICE of MRCB is 98.5 Sen. But the Value is Rm1.15 in projected profit
So we are paying 98.5 sen for ASSURED PROFITS OF RM1.15?
So we are paying 98.5 Sen for A PROFIT VALUE OF RM1.15
NOW THIS RM1.15 IS ALREADY LOCKED IN
Got Some More?
YES!
THERE IS MENARA CELCOM Worth Rm680 Millions which will be Ready for Sale
Also Ascott Hotel for Sale at Rm180 Millions
And Jln Kia Peng Lands Just Sold for Rm323 Millions
And Any More?
Yes, Of Course
THERE IS
1) EDL TOLL COMPENSATION... This One will pare down gearing of Sukuk Loans
2) PDP Jv with GAMUDA For HIGH SPEED RAIL KL - SINGAPORE (RM30 BILLIONS)
If MRCB Should win the profit is Rm30 Billions x 6% or Rm1.8 BILLIONS And MRCB 50% SHARE WILL BE RM900 MILLIONS.
That's another EXTRA 41.05 SEN Profit!!
But HSR is for 2018 to 2026 - 8 Years Job
So simple. Just divide 41.05 sen by 8 = 5.13 Sen per year for next 8 years for MRCB
Wha if MRCB failed to secure the deal?
Remember Total Cost of HSR KL - SPORE is Rm60 BILLIONS
So try again for Package B - another Rm30 BILLIONS
3) THEN THERE'S BANDAR MALAYSIA!! A WHOPPING RM160 BILLIONS
Will MRCB get a slice of the JOB? Most probably as MRCB is EXPERT IN TOD like no other companies in Malaysia (Think Gamuda, IWCity, Ekovest, GKent, Gadang, MMC, YTL or WCT got better experience in TOD than MRCB?
See WWW.MRCB.COM.MY
And so we Know that the Bright Prospects of MRCB are Right Before Us!
Then why Calvin bring up the Words of Sifu Warren Buffet, "The stock market is a devise for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"?
It's like this
Calvin called for a Buy on MRCB at Rm1.20 (long term investors)
But short term punters joined in and bought at Rm1.20
After T plus 3 MRCB dropped to Rm1.10 they cutloss & sold. Then other Contra Players took up MRCB at Rm1.10.
Ha! After buying and T + 4 they also CUTLOSS at Rm1.05.
Then More Hopeful Short Term Punters gave a try at RM1.05
Aiyoo!
After buying MRCB at Rm1.05 it again dropped to 98.5 Sen. So they CUTLOSS again?
SO MANY SHORT TERM LOSSES AFTER LOSSES?
THEN THERE WERE THOSE WHO BOUGHT MRCB AT RM1.20 BY MARGIN.
AND MORE MARGIN AT RM1.10?
THEN RM1.05?
AND AIYOYO!
MARGIN CALL FOR MRCB AT RM1.00. THEN CUTLOSS OR FORCESELL AT 98.5 SEN?
ALL THE ABOVE ARE EXAMPLES OF SHORT TERM IMPATIENT DAY TRADERS, CONTRA PLAYERS AND SHORT TERM PUNTERS.
AND PRICES SOLD DOWN BECAUSE THEY WERE IMPATIENT. THEY CANNOT WAIT TO GET RICH QUICK?
NOW WHAT HAPPEN TO VALUE INVESTOR?
THEY BOUGHT AT RM1.20
DID THEY CUTLOSS AT RM1.10? NO!
CUTLOSS AT RM1.05? AGAIN NO!!
AT RM1.00? STILL NO!!
AT 98.5 SEN WHEN OTHERS SAY WILL FALL LOWER?
AHA!
THEY ARE VALUE INVESTORS.
ALSO DEEP VALUE INVESTORS!!!
SURPRISED?
THEY BOUGHT AT RM1.20
THEY BOUGHT AT RM1.10
THEY BOUGHT AGAIN AT RM1.05
THEY ALSO BOUGHT AT RM1.00
THEY STEELED THEMSELVES WITH LION HEART AND NERVE OF STEEL AND BOUGHT AT 98.5 SEN
WILL THEY DARE TO BUY IF PRICE GOES LOWER?
THE ANSWER IS OBVIOUS.
A MILLION TIMES YES!!
THAT'S HOW MILLIONAIRES WERE MADE
THE ALL BUY AT THE BOTTOMS
JOHN TEMPLETON BOUGHT SHARES AT THE OUTBREAK OF THE 2ND WORLD WAR
DR NEOH SOON KEAN CALLED FOR A BUY ON KLSE AT 262 POINTS INDEX AND CALLED IT "THE BARGAIN OF THE CENTURY"!!
AND SO WITH THE ADVISE AND EXAMPLES OF SIFU WE BUY
SO THESE IMPATIENT SHORT TERM PUNTERS FULL OF SHORT TERM GREED AND INSTANT FEAR CUTLOSS ON MRCB AND AFTER CUTLOSS BAD MOUTH IT AND MADE IT CHEAPER FOR PATIENT VALUE INVESTORS TO BUY AT EVEN CHEAPER PRICES.
THAT IS THE REASON WHY MONEY IS BEING TRANSFFERED FROM THE IMPATIENT TO THE PATIENT
VERY WARM REGARDS
CALVIN TAN, SINGAPORE
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 52 comments
Airdrop is a process of transfer of wealth to the poor without any cost.
:)
2018-03-24 20:04
qqq3 there is no proof that being frozen soldier do better than fast traders.
24/03/2018 22:25
Should rephrase it like this
"There is proof that fast traders like Jesse Livermore finally lost all and committed suicide".
2018-03-24 22:40
Someone who promote at least one time a day only buy 5000 shares.. what do you expect ? Reminds me of JJPTR kaki I met few years ago. I told him if you are so confident you should sell your Grandmother and all in. Talk is cheap.
2018-03-24 22:54
qqq3 foolishly misquoting Warren is a sign of dementia.
24/03/2018 22:27
If you got better interpretation for this
"The stock market is a devise for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
Then post your ideas and tell us how?
2018-03-24 23:03
calvin...in the first, I don't rely on quoting famous people.....
I rely on my brains/ experience.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/151380.jsp
2018-03-24 23:05
gambling has not produced another greater than
WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOHN NEFF, WALTER SCHLOSS OR BEN GRAHAM in their long years of proven success.
Gambling by luck may give short term success only as proven by Jesse Livermore. In the end of End Games Livermore lost everything. As well as Barings Bank, Lehman Brothers Bear Sterns & others
SO IT IS NOT FOR TRUE INVESTING AS THE NORM.
2018-03-24 23:15
Tan Eng investment style is to buy 100 stocks with 1 lot each. Sure he won’t get bankrupt like Jesse Livermore but don’t expect he will get rich also. Lonely Singapore old man trying to get attention and kill his time only.
2018-03-24 23:31
Everyone remember how he consistently staying at bottom 10 in 2017 stock pick competition. When market recovered from 2014 sell off he still stay at bottom 10. But of coz he will talk cock and tell you how good he is. Typical Kiasu and kiasi singaporean
2018-03-24 23:33
Yah u were lucky perisai and carimin weren’t included also. If not will end up staying at bottom 3. LOLOLLL
2018-03-24 23:39
WHY NOT ASK THIS QUESTION?
WHICH ONE OF CALVIN CALLS HAVE GONE BANKRUPT & DELISTED?
NONE SO FAR. BANKRUPT & DELISTED
BUT DELISTED BY BEING TAKEN PRIVATE THERE ARE 4
1) SUPER ENTERPRIZE
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/8656.jsp
2) KULIM
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/2003.jsp
3) TMAKMUR
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5251.jsp
4) THESTORE
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5711.jsp
THESE ABOVE 4 CALVIN CHUN CHUN CALLS WERE NOT DELISTED DUE TO BANKRUPTCY BUT BECAUSE THEY WERE SO VALUABLE THEY WERE TAKEN PRIVATE ONE BY ONE AT HIGHER OFFERED PRICES!!
NEXT TWO WILL ME WANGZNG & WEIDA!!!
NOW QUESTION IS
DID CALVIN MANIPULATE DATA OF SUPER ENTERPRIZE, KULIM, TMAKMUR, THESTORE, WANGZNG OR WEIDA?
2018-03-24 23:58
别人称赞叫口碑，自我标榜叫吹嘘。
“天不言自高，地不言自厚”，真正有学识有涵养的人是不用开口标榜自己的。
晚清左宗棠西征，收复了新疆，立下了不世之功。左宗棠本来就有“文人喜大言”的毛病，立功后更是见人就谈自己的西征经历。
有人找他办事，不管是公事还是私事，左宗棠三言两语就能把事情绕到西征上面去，让对方无可奈何。
左宗棠是有本事的人，吹嘘的功劳也确实是真的，仍然受人诟病，所以标榜自己的话，我们最好不说。
2018-03-25 00:01
Cherry picking is a form of manipulation you idiot. All positions have to be marked to market and the final PnL is the only thing matters the most. Doesn’t mean your losing trade no bankrupt you don’t have to include it in PnL. How Long are you going to hold? 10 years? Of coz you can afford to do so when u only put 2% of ur net worth n spread it into 100 counters.
2018-03-25 00:04
LISTEN
LAST TIME CALVIN ALSO OWNED THESE STOCKS
UEM
OPUS
CIMA
PLUS
ALL TAKEN PRIVATE BY MALAYSIAN GOVT
THESE ALSO TAKEN PRIVATE (ALL CALVIN CHUN CHUN STOCKS)
PELANGI BHD (TOOK PRIVATE AT 77 SEN)
PARAMOUNT GARDEN
ISLAND & PENINSULA
ALL THESE 3 ABOVE TAKEN PRIVATE BY GOVT
SEE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permodalan_Nasional_Berhad
SO LISTEN! LISTEN!! LISTEN!!!
MRCB IS NOW A CANDIDATE FOR PRIVATISATION ALSO!!
SO MUCH DEEP DEEP VALUE IS INSIDE MRCB NOW!!
2018-03-25 00:26
Posted by Tom > Mar 25, 2018 12:14 AM | Report Abuse
mrcb 的 downtrend 才走到半途，散户最好小心温水煮青蛙....
DOWNRTREND?
LAST TIME CALVIN CALLED FOR A BUY ON KULIM. OTB SAID KULIM DOWNTREDING CANNOT BUY.
CALVIN AND JOHOR BUDDIES BOUGHT KULIM AT RM2.50 ANYWAY DUE TO ITS DEEP VALUE
THEN JOHOR CORP TOOK KULIM PRIVATE AT RM4.10 FOR 60% GAIN!
SEE
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/2003.jsp
2018-03-25 00:29
calvin
lets face it, you are not going to be WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOHN NEFF, WALTER SCHLOSS OR BEN GRAHAM ...you survive first then talk.
2018-03-25 00:32
qqq3 calvin
lets face it, you are not going to be WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOHN NEFF, WALTER SCHLOSS OR BEN GRAHAM ...you survive first then talk.
25/03/2018 00:32
SURVIVE?
OF COURSE!!
ONLY LESS THAN 10% OF MY CAPITAL IS INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET (HMMM? IN ACTUAL COUNT ONLY 6% TO 7% INVESTED SO FAR)
SO I HAVE WAITED FOR THESE TIMES
THESE ARE CRISIS TIMES
THE CHINESE WORD FOR CRISIS IS A COMPOUND OF 2 WORDS
NGAI = DANGER
KAY = OPPORTUNITY
YES. IN TIMES OF DANGER (DANGER OF UNCERTAIN ELECTION TIME SO SELL DOWN? DANGER OF TRUMP TARIFF SO SELL DOWN?)
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY!!!
2018-03-25 00:38
woah.... calvin only got 6% per cent invested....last time it was 2% invested....
how to be WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOHN NEFF, WALTER SCHLOSS OR BEN GRAHAM then?
2018-03-25 00:51
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 25, 2018 02:09 AM | Report Abuse
holding power is negative power while holding HY from $19 to $8
Who ask you to buy at RM19?
ALL SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT AT ONLY RM2.00 ACCORDING TO CALVIN'S 3RD RULE
(((HE THAT IS LOW NEEDS FEAR NO FALL)))
ALWAYS REMEMBER TO BUY LOW. ONCE PRICE FLY AWAY RESIST CHASING IT!!
2018-03-25 02:13
PureBULL . > Mar 25, 2018 06:05 AM | Report Abuse
Do u know ur beloved warren b still is the world # 1 jumbo ahlong at right TIMING ?
Tis made him super jumbo rich, not daily buying n selling stocks. his stock dealing in 2nd mkt is done for show to camouflage.
How not to be rich if u r ahlong!
He must be born an ex.chinese.
He max the deep understanding of the word CRISIS in Chinese;
CRISIS = Danger + OPPORTUNITY
1 ex :
Just few yrs ago, Bangkok was hit by flood. All the insurance co run for cover. the ins demand went sky high so was the ins rate.
Then what happen?
warren b has the best man who thinks n acts like him. He's AJIT JAIN, a v clever indian from of course Harvard. At the height of the ins rates AJIT went in to sapu all. now betul.betul chia.beh.leow
THIS IS WHAT MADE ur warren b so FAMOUS:-
He's basically a v good global businessmen from top ivy league biz schools.
50 yrs ago warren B. was the 1st to inspire n prosper 4 money industry types:
He is v good as,
i. equity fund manager, v good in buying n selling stocks in the early yrs when he bought n hold MCD n KO. for yrs he's not up to the mark, in fact lousy. fbook boss called him the day before listing, hoping to get him to buy. warren couldn't be bothered. instead he bought big blue IBM n later had to cut loss to buy AAPL recently!
ii. Hedge fund manager
warren was 1st to charge 5/20, meaning 5% annual fee + 20% profit sharing.
It became the best biz to be in. All the hedgees today owed their existence to warren. this model made warren world famous.
iii. Biggest 'ahlong' jumbo financier in the world, like he whacked GS with free warrant n BAC jumbo deals in 2009 at the worst time in stock mkt, again at best of right timing. He's certainly waiting to duplicate catching this jumbo at right timing soon this yr or next!
iv. Private Equity Manager
It's private equity that made warren so v RICH n not stock investing n dealing. many RICH names quoted in i3 who also followed warren's style r truly big time private equity managers.
IF u r v good in FA #s, then u must be in private equity, taking over cos n grow the biz thru network leverage n geographical expansion.
I know many pple followed n talked a lot like warren b, n play stock mkt but couldn't do well long term. only he warren can do it.
WHY? Mismatch of kungfu in the wrong investment space.
===================
excellent piece
2018-03-25 06:48
wallen the Buffalo.....he admitted recently, if he starts all over again, he cannot duplicate his success
2018-03-25 06:50
calvintaneng, u tell other about yo stocks also other don't bother to follow u, bcos u only invested 6% of yo net cash on!y. If u are so sure, then you should invest 80-85% 0f yo cash, not lip service here only.
Why u so Kiasi invest 6% only of yo net cash?
I think bcos u are NOT CONFIDENT of yoself lah.
>>>Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 25, 2018 12:38 AM | Report Abuse
qqq3>>> calvin
lets face it, you are not going to be WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOHN NEFF, WALTER SCHLOSS OR BEN GRAHAM ...you survive first then talk.
25/03/2018 00:32
SURVIVE?
OF COURSE!!
ONLY LESS THAN 10% OF MY CAPITAL IS INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET (HMMM? IN ACTUAL COUNT ONLY 6% TO 7% INVESTED SO FAR)<<<
2018-03-25 11:11
Haha pussycats,
I am now liquidating my assets to buy more shares.
The time has come.
The more bearish I see people are getting the more I am turning bullish
After 99% of all the people have given up all hope I will be the most bullish one left!!
2018-03-25 11:14
Good if you can let us in on how much stocks you have on hand ,in which counters, since you are putting money where your mouth is,and what % of cash you are holding as compared to total funds for stock investment, thank you.
2018-03-25 11:22
NoPlayBall Good if you can let us in on how much stocks you have on hand ,in which counters, since you are putting money where your mouth is,and what % of cash you are holding as compared to total funds for stock investment, thank you.
25/03/2018 11:22
Hmmm,
I buying from 4 entities. So I need to tally all later.
Now I hold these a lot
1) MRCB
2) TA ENTERPRIZE
3) CBIP & MANY CPO STOCKS LIKE DUTALAND, JTIASA, WTK, TDM, HARNLERN, KWANTAS, RSAWIT
4) OTHERS TOO MANY TO NAME.
2018-03-25 11:55
Hamka Chan
Just tell us how many lots in total u have for each below
1) MRCB
2) TA ENTERPRIZE
3) CBIP & MANY CPO STOCKS LIKE DUTALAND, JTIASA, WTK, TDM, HARNLERN, KWANTAS, RSAWIT
4) OTHERS TOO MANY TO NAME.
2018-03-25 19:53
Dont tell me you dont know how many lots you have? Just log in your trading account and you will see it all
2018-03-25 19:53
tomorrow Tan Eng from Singapore aka foreign fund according to bursa definition will come in and rescue you all. with another 10 lot LOL
2018-03-25 20:32
Yes i beleive in mr calvin. I will buy in bt in small lot js to hold for mid term.
2018-03-25 21:53
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
HAHAHA!!!
HOW COME SO SIMPLETON?
CALVIN SAID BOUGHT MRCB AT 98.5 SEN FOR 5,000 SHARES YESTERDAY DOES NOT MEAN CALVIN ONLY GOT 5,000 SHARES.
CALVIN BOUGHT HOW MANY TIMES? 5,000, 10,000, 50,000 or MORE?
YOU MUST KNOW THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED FIGURES LAH!!!
ARE YOU SO SIMPLETON AND IN OTHER WORDS SO BODOH?
2018-03-24 18:49