THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR HENGYUAN ALL HAVE MISSED WITH BLIND SPOT IN THE EYE, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 10 Apr 2018, 12:53 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Fellow Investors in i3 Forum,
Much has been said, debated, argued about Hengyuan
Now I want to point out Some Red Flags if you will take heed to stop & think
The Red Flags are all too evident
1) ROYAL DUTCH SOLD BECAUSE SHELL IN PD IS NO LONGER VIABLE AS FUTURE LOOKS BLEAK
The main reasons given by Royal Dutch was
a) It is more profitable going into downstream chemicals. That implies that refining gasoline oil for cars will face problems. Problems of demand for Euro 4 & Euro 5 specifications. After that will be EV. High refurbishment cost
b) So the answer is going downstream expansion into petrochemical. BUT THE PROBLEM IS GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTRAIN!
PD has a Marina by Tsr Cap & Malaysian Vision Valley will reach PD in no time as one of HSR Stop is in Labu, N Sembilan
2) TNB is switching to Solar Power to avoid pollution. In 2018 Budget Speech Govt already alloted Rm5 BILLIONS for Green Tech
So Refining Oil for TNB will also cease. TNB has a scheme for private houses whose roof are encourage to tap into Solar Energy. Surplus Electricy generated by Roof Solar Panels could be sold to TNB. This is already ongoing in Malaysia. So the days of refining oil for gasoline use is numbered.
3) Even Saudi Aramco is fully aware that the future lies in downstream PetroChemical. So Saudi has invested Rm28 Billions in Pengerang's RAPID for downstream Chemical Industries
4) Not Only Royal Dutch is Selling All Its Shares to Hengyuan. EPF IS ALSO SELLING AND SELLING UNTIL NO MORE HENGYUAN Shares. Why the Sell Down? EPF is privy to Govt Future Directives
See
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 03-Jan-2017 | Notice of Person Ceasing | 795,600 | 0.000 |
 |
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 30-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 1,656,100 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 29-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 500,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 28-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 624,400 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 27-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 1,052,300 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 23-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 684,900 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 22-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 1,396,200 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 21-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 1,000,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 20-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 700,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 19-Dec-2016 | Disposed | 297,200 | 0.000 |
|
5) NOT ONLY EPF IS SELLING ALL HENGYUAN AWAY. AMANAH SAHAM BUMI IS ALSO SELLING ALL AWAY!
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 07-Nov-2017 | Notice of Person Ceasing | 971,600 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 06-Nov-2017 | Disposed | 432,700 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 03-Nov-2017 | Disposed | 255,600 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 02-Nov-2017 | Disposed | 525,900 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 01-Nov-2017 | Disposed | 386,200 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 31-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 755,600 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 25-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 8,400 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 24-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 132,100 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 13-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 203,600 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD- AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 12-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 195,100 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 11-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 215,800 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 04-Oct-2017 | Disposed | 297,500 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD-AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 22-Aug-2017 | Disposed | 300,000 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD-AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 21-Aug-2017 | Disposed | 167,300 | 0.000 |
|
| AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD-AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA | 18-Aug-2017 | Disposed | 81,200 | 0.000 |
|
|
|
6) RED FLAG NO. 6. WITH OVER RM3.00 RINGGIT PROFIT THE DIVIDEND IS A MERE 2 SEN?
THIS IS A JOKE? A DEADLY JOKE LIKE IN TRANSMILE? TRANSMILE REPORTED HIGH PROFITS BUT ONLY PAY A PITTANCE IN DIVIDEND!! AT THE END OF END GAMES IT WAS FOUND OUT THAT TRANSMILE ACCOUNTING WAS SUSPECT. DIRECTORS WERE ARRESTED. TRANSMILE LATER FELL AWAY THE WAY DOWN FROM RM15.00 TO ZERO!
7) RED FLAG NO. 7: RESIGNATION OF CHINA AUDITHOR
Change in Audit Committee
| HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD |
| Date of change | 24 Nov 2017 |
| Name | MR WANG, ZONGQUAN |
| Age | 54 |
| Gender | Male |
| Nationality | China (CHINA RED CHIP COMPANY LIKE XINQUAN & OTHERS ALL SUSPECT) |
| Type of change | Resignation |
| Designation | Member of Audit Committee |
| Directorate | Non Independent and Non Executive |
| Composition of Audit Committee (Name and Directorate of members after change) |
Alan Hamzah Sendut (Chairman) Lim Tau Kien (Member) Fauziah Binti Hisham (Member) Liang Kok Siang (Member) |
At the frenzied Greater Fool Bull Run time in IFCA when IFCA jumped from 7 sen all the way up and up to a high of Rm1.87 the Chairman of IFCA also suddenly resigned. Calvin gave a red flag warning which IFCA people failed to take heed as they were caught up in collective greed!!
Directors and Audithors of XINQUAN Also All Resigned collectively when XinQuan was Suspended!
See
Change of Company Secretary
| XINGQUAN INTERNATIONAL SPORTS HOLDINGS LIMITED |
| Date Of Change | 31 Aug 2017 |
| Type Of Change | Resignation |
| Designation | Company Secretary |
| License No | MAICSA 0778565 |
| Name | KANG SHEW MENG |
| Working experience and occupation during past 5 years |
Change of Company Secretary
| XINGQUAN INTERNATIONAL SPORTS HOLDINGS LIMITED |
| Date Of Change | 31 Aug 2017 | |
| Resignation | ||
|
Company Secretary | |
| License No | MAICSA 7009732 | |
| Name | SEOW FEI SAN | |
| Working experience and occupation during past 5 years |
Change in Audit Committee
| XINGQUAN INTERNATIONAL SPORTS HOLDINGS LIMITED |
| Date of change | 03 Aug 2017 |
| Name | MR ZHOU LIYI |
| Age | 48 |
| Gender | Male |
| Nationality | China |
| Type of change | Cessation Of Office |
| Designation | Member of Audit Committee |
| Directorate | Independent and Non Executive |
| Composition of Audit Committee (Name and Directorate of members after change) |
Nil |
Change in Boardroom
| XINGQUAN INTERNATIONAL SPORTS HOLDINGS LIMITED |
| Date of change | 03 Aug 2017 |
| Name | MR ZHOU LIYI |
| Age | 48 |
| Gender | Male |
| Nationality | China |
| Designation | Director |
| Directorate | Independent and Non Executive |
| Type of change | Resignation |
| Reason |
As he will not be able to discharge and perform the duties and responsibilities of an independent director due to the expiry of the employment contract of the CFO in early May 2017, the resignation of Audit Committee Chairman in end of May 2017, the recent resignation of the other independent director, and the inability of the Company to secure suitable candidates to fill the aforesaid vacancies since May 2017, he therefore tender resignation as an independent director. |
Change in Boardroom
| XINGQUAN INTERNATIONAL SPORTS HOLDINGS LIMITED |
| Date of change | 31 Jul 2017 |
| Name | DATO' HAJI RAMLY BIN HAJI ZAHARI |
| Age | 59 |
| Gender | Male |
| Nationality | Malaysia |
| Designation | Director |
| Directorate | Independent and Non Executive |
| Type of change | Resignation |
| Reason |
No reason given |
| Details of any disagreement that he/she has with the Board of Directors | No |
A RED CHIP COMPANY LIKE XINQUAN PURPORTED TO HAVE A BILLION $ CASH IN BANK?
END GAME IS ALL DIRECTORS/INSIDERS RESIGNING WHOLESALE?
IF IT COULD HAPPEN TO XINQUAN IT COULD HAPPEN TO ANY RED CHIP COMPANY IN KLSE
CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!
WARM REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research, Singapore
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 37 of 37 comments
Let's discussed one by one, these guys (epf and Amanah) went through the lowest price in the range of 2-3. When they sold the price was more than double. Does it make sense for them to sell? Secondly the stock no longer gave dividend since 2013. To funds like government epf and amanah , dividend is important as they are here for long run.
2 cent dividend is a starting point before they return to their previous glory
2018-04-10 01:51
1)Shell sold a lot of asset since 2016 after purchasing bg gas. They have 30billion debt and was unmanageable. They sold asset around the world when oil price was 20-30 USD .
2018-04-10 01:55
2) unless you stop pumping your car, shell will be around here. According to bp research next two decades are golden age for Asia oil until 2040 where ev may start biting in. That's 23 years from now. Most really don't hold more than 3 years , let alone 23.
2018-04-10 01:57
7) resignation of one of the audit committees. Not unusual. They have secure RM1.7b financing from AmBank, CCB, Maybank . Do you think these guys will lend money to hy without looking at their books. We are talking about billion.
2018-04-10 02:03
6) 2 Sen dividend for earning Eps. Clearly you don't follow what is happening in hy. They are undergoing a major upgrade in 2018 and prevent further shutdown in 2019. They need money to invest and therefore a loan from bank. You don't give big angpao when you have debt and improvement in your house, don't you?
2018-04-10 02:06
Electric will replace some but not all. Just ask your self how many lorries, taxi, aeroplane, escavator, tractor, ship , motorbike will be changed from petrol/diesel to electric. Start asking yourself. As I have said before, technology can be advanced to reduce the emission.
Try to travel with an ev (not hybrid) from Singapore to KL during new year and your wife will surely give you a red flag.
2018-04-10 02:17
It's getting late now. Welcome 7 comments so far.
I see the macro picture.
With Petronas RAPID going into phase one, phase two and then phase three with Dialogue latest rm2.5 billions tank farm expansion i think the unthinkable might happen to petron and hengyuan refineries.
They will either have to upgrade or close shop.
In Spore an entire Airport from Paya Lebar closed and shifted to Changi. So is Keppel Harbour relocated to Tuas.
Do not forget even Sg Besi military airport also shifted to bandar sri seladayan.
Both petron and hengyuan refineries might face problems as Govt is moving Big Time into Pengerang RAPID.
AS LAWS CAN AND DO CHANGE FOR HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT EVEN BAT IS CLOSING SHOP IN MALAYSIA DUE TO HIGH TAXES AND RAMPANT CIGARETTE SMUGGLING.
THINK OUT OF THE BOX. DON'T SEE FROM YOUR BIAS VIEW IF YOU THINK CALVIN IS BIAS.
2018-04-10 02:32
Calvin how many times must i repeat? Oil is not local or regional demand. Its gobally priced. Pengerang is but a small contributor to refined oil in the world.
The cost for shipping gas locally and globall is 0.26 and 0.49cents usd respectively. A 0.23cents usd difference.
2018-04-10 07:25
Compare BAT Cigaratte with HY?
Temple also close because of High Tax kah?
Namorunrun
2018-04-10 07:28
SCARED WHAT. KOON YEW YIN PLUS OOI TEIK BEE ARE RICHER THAN EPF AND AMANAH. THEY WILL BUY MILLIONS OF SHARES EVERYDAY. CAN EASILY BREAK RM10 TODAY AND RM12 END OF THIS MONTH.
2018-04-10 08:18
Shut up Cap Locks Calvin.
Non stop spouting nonsense!
Seriously!
TAKE YOUR PSYC MEDS!
2018-04-10 08:20
Tan Eng now bearish in oil but last year he recommended i3 members to buy perisai and Alam.. kikik.... will TanEnd tell you ? of coz not ! he will tell you how much xxx% he made in other counters ! business as usual !
2018-04-10 08:49
Calvin recommended more than 100 stocks..
Keep on boasting on 5% to 10% of the performing ones and is very shy to talk abt his other 90% to 95% holland calls
2018-04-10 08:51
https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-refiners-are-primed-for-profits-1522454400
Here are some facts. Transportation cost for oil products are cheap. A gallon of gasoline cost a nickel (ie, 5 cents) to be transported from US to Europe. That's 2.5% for a gallon sold at USD2. That means, because transportation cost is so low, the concern on oversupply is not Malaysia, nor regional, but from a global perspective. Fortunately, globally, there is a shortage of refining capacity, and will likely remain in shortage in the near term. Don't forget, Petron is unable to fulfill it's domestic gasoline sales and has to import from overseas. Also, US crude is being sold even to the far reaches of the world to China. That's why, it's myopic to think of Rapid as a threat to HY or Petron since the cost of transporting oil is so cheap.
2018-04-10 08:53
face so thick and like to pusing , Tan End must be an indian BN candidate lah ! pariah dog.
2018-04-10 08:57
hy will worth rm3 by this year end because of weak management and poor business outlook
2018-04-10 09:28
Come on guys be mature. Calvin has his personal views. No right or wrong, else everyone have the same thought process. His view may be arguable but not entirely wrong. Is a good to be sceptical especially if in relation to your money
2018-04-10 10:41
to clarify EPF not stupid to sell at huge loss-making even though distribution of dividends is low as they don't to make distribution of cash every year. All of them are via reinvestment back. Must be due to some reasons that we aren't aware of. The few funds that will see on dividends are Tabung Haji and LTKT as they need to make cash distributions
2018-04-10 10:45
Is good to have a person to address on the scepticism. Else, the whole market is not healthy at all.
2018-04-10 10:46
Right now EPF is busy dumping Sasbadi.
See how far the price has tanked?
Bloody imbeciles. They are not retailers. They need to realise this!
They need to find 3rd parties to buy their massive blocks of shares off-market instead of dumping on the open market.
Tony Fernandes & Co. are a good example of this. Find a willing buyer and exchange off-maket. You will get a better price.
2018-04-10 11:29
calvintaneng you are a joke. Writing rubbish to bad mouth a stock. Why spend so much time doing this? You sound like a very sour grape. Put your energy in finding a good company to invest instead. Actually, no need to waste time. Nobody is interested in what you think you know. Just get lost and stay away. That will do us all a great favour.
2018-04-10 15:14
able, able
i saw you bought the lemon called tek seng.
I warned about tek seng when it was rm1.00
tek seng now crashed to 33.5 sen!!
See you did not take warning so kena kaw kaw?
2018-04-10 15:23
calvin knows how to talk but in real life might not even have a trading account. sure your mother didnt bring u up properly. when hengyuan going up, calvin (stray dog) bad mouth about the stock. when going down he comes in double. sometimes i pity ur parents didnt tell u when to shut up and when to open mouth? even a stray dog also knows when to bark and when not to. pity u. by the way yesterday i burn the money and car for chingming, ur mum received it?
2018-04-10 16:29
waaaa... talk with fact and figure lah. why need to attack their parent?
2018-04-10 17:01
I learn a lot from Calvin's research and contributions not only from the investment perspective but a person's good virtue. I believe there are many readers who, just like I am, appreciate his write-ups. Thank you Calvin!
2018-04-10 17:29
Thks Victoria88
May i dedicate this song to you. I like its music though i don't know its meaning in Chinese
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSjmke3JX40
2018-04-10 17:37
i also learn a lot...thank calvintaneng for entertaining us with your bird brain point of view..hengyuan related to xinguan.....fuiyo...you just have grudge against old crooked KYY...seem you are the loser till now and will be forever too...L for you..
2018-04-10 18:15
Thanks Calvin. In return, let me dedicate this song to you too :) God Bless!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSjmke3JX40
2018-04-10 18:19
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Calvin,
Your red flags do not seem convincing enough. These are all your personal views without much evidence to support when those events are going to happen in future and to what extent its impacts on oil price in the near future. Even if it might happen in the next 10-20 years, the stock market cannot and difficult to discount that happenings in the next 10-20 years.
Changes of external auditor will matter a lot not internal auditor as it is common to have several internal auditors in the audit committee. Don't hold personal bias against all china companies and people, as an investor u should look at the facts and figures, not to speculate what your belief unless you obtain illegal inside information about the company!
I do admit small capital companies tend to be manipulated by some syndicates, but today you can see even some oil companies e.g. Petronm, Petdag, pchem, petgas... don't tell me all these companies are manipulated by syndicates!!!
2018-04-10 01:29