Long Steel Stock Like Lionind is now hot hot because most see it as good due to many infrar jobs already secured with its projected profits. But that is only the micro picture. The Macro Picture is Bad.
Why do I say that?
Answer:
Long Steel is a Cyclical Group of Stocks depending mostly in Govt Linked Public Works & in a smaller measure the Building of High Rise Office & Condo
Look at long steel
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE ABOVE EXAMPLES LONG STEEL IS USED FOR HEAVY INFRAR JOBS - USUALLY BY GOVERNMENT PROPOSED MRT, LRT, HIGHWAYS, HSR, RAIL OR OTHER HEAVY INDUSTRIAL NEEDS.
AND ALONG WITH THESE GOVT RELATED INFRAR JOBS ARE AN INCREASING USAGE OF CEMENT
SO LONG STEEL DEMAND USUALLY GO HAND IN HAND WITH DEMAND FOR CEMENT.
LONG STEEL COMPANIES ARE ANNJOO, SSTEEL, MASTEEL & LIONIND
FLAT STEEL ON THE OTHER HAND DEPENDS ON THE CONSUMER (NOT GOVERNMENT)
FLAT STEEL IS USED FOR CAR ROOF, BONNETS, DOORS, FRIDGE PANEL & DOORS, WASHING MACHING, OVEN, AIRCOND & ALSO USED AS FURNITURE BED FRAME
FLAT STEEL COMPANIES ARE CSCSTEEL & MYCRON STEEL
AFTER ELECTION THE PH GOVT ABOLISHED GST AND PUT MONIES INTO THE POCKETS OF CONSUMERS.
SEE HOW CARS SOLD LIKE HOT CAKES!
THIS WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR FLAT STEEL.
NOW WHAT IS THE LATEST PLAN IN THE NEW PH GOVT?
THEY ARE CANCELLING HIGHLY EXPENSIVE INFRAR JOBS LIKE ECER, 2 GAS PIPE LINES. POSSIBLE CANCELLATION OF HIGH SPEED RAIL. SCALE DOWN OR POSTPONE SOME MRT & LRT JOBS
AND NOT MORE NEW HIGH INFRAR JOBS AS IT SEEK TO CUT DEBT & COST
THAT MEANS THAT AFTER THESE FEW MORE QUARTERS THE DEMAND FOR LONG STEEL WILL FIZZLE OUT!
AND THESE HIGH FLYING HOT STOCKS OF THE MOMENT WILL DEFLATE ONE BY ONE
SO IF THIS COMING ONE OR TWO QUARTERS FOR LONG STEEL IF RESULTS ARE STILL GOOD. IT WILL BE THE MOST OPPORTUNE TIME TO SELL INTO STRENGTH & ESCAPE
LAST TIME 10 YEARS AGO WHEN EX PM AHMAD BADAWI IMPLEMENTED THE 9 MP CALVIN BOUGHT LOTS OF LONG STEEL COUNTERS INCLUDING PRESTAR WHICH MAKE GUARDRAILS FOR HIGHWAYS
I BOUGHT PRESTAR AT 60 SEN TO 70 SEN. SUDDENLY PRESTAR DECLARED A NICE 11 SEN DIVIDEND & WITH GOOD RESULTS PRESTAR SHARE PRICE POWERED UP TO CROSS RM1.00
BOTH MY JOHOR SIFU & I SOLD ALL PRESTAR AND DIDN'T LOOK BACK
BUT TO MY SURPRISE PRESTAR DIRECTORS/INSIDERS BOUGHT EVEN MORE PRESTAR SHARES ABOVE RM1.00
THEY DID NOT ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT FALL IN DEMAND & PRESTAR PRICE CRASHED BACK TO 70 SEN. AND IT EVEN CRASHED LOWER THAN THAT TO 45 SEN UNTIL 11 MP WHEN BN STARTED TO BUILD 7 NEW HIGHWAYS
SO CALVIN "SEEING" THE UPTURN CALLED FOR A BUY ON PRESTAR AGAIN AT 45 SEN
SEE
PRESTAR – THE UNDERVALUE LAGGARD CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCK
With the Contraction in China, the Overvaluation of Export Stocks & The Overstretched Consumers of Malaysia Impacted by 6% GST & High Imported inflation due to weak ringgit there are really few stocks left for the picking in Bursa.
There remains a Class of Underperforming Stocks that might go against the trend – “THE CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCKS LIKE KPSCB, KIMLUN, CEPCO & PRESTAR”. As KPSCB, KIMLUN & CEPCO Have Already Run Up 20% to 30% In Prices Our Focus Now Turn To PRESTAR.
PRESTAR Or PRE-STAR
“PRE” As in “PREVIOUS” Or “Before”
Or In Other Words “Before IT TURNS INTO A STAR”
SO NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY PRESTAR “BEFORE IT TURNS INTO A STAR PERFORMING STOCK”
PRESTAR – THE RISING STAR AMONG CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCKS!
ITS SALIENT FACTORS:
1) At 50 cents with NTA at Rm1.23 PRESTAR IS SELLING AT A HUGE 60% DISCOUNT TO NTA. It Has A Big Margin of Safety.
2) Foreward P/E is a low 3.66. Beating many Export Furniture and E & E Stocks hands down.
3) Its Debt is Well Cushioned By Its High Tangible Assets Still Not Revalued Yet. Its Properties were purchased long ago in strategic locations. If Company wanted to It Can Revalue All Its Properties Like HapSeng, Seacera & Eg and book them as immense profits.
4) Unlike All Other Steel Companies Impacted by China Steel Dumping PRESTAR Like KPSCB, KIMLUN & CEPCO Are Into Niche Manufacturing of Specialty Construction Materials like High Way Guard Rails and Wheel Barrows. So It has avoided the carnage caused by Cheap China Steel.
5) 10 Highways Including Pasir Gudang Highway, West Coastal Highway, Bandar Penawar – Sungai Ringgit Highway, Pengerang Highway & the 1,600 km Pan Borneo Highway will spur Great Demand for Prestar’s Highway Guardrails.
6) Prestar also stand to reap higher profit due to the collapse of nickel and iron ore prices by 60% to 70% as its Guard Rails use a lot of nickel. This will boost Prestar’s profits further.
7) Prestar also has a factory in Vietnam like Pohuat. With TPP now signed Prestar will do very well as both Vietnam & Malaysia are expected to be top beneficiaries.
8) PRESTAR Also Invest In The Shares of POSCO, In Which the World’s Greatest Investor, Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway, has a Share also. Partnership in prosperity!
9) SEEING ITS BRIGHT FUTURE INSIDERS AND DIRECTORS HAVE BOUGHT MILLIONS OF PRESTAR SHARES ON THE QUIET. A Check with these Directors and Insiders Show That They Have Bought PRESTAR Shares As High As Rm1.00 And Now Still Buying Even More at Depressed Prices.
10) A 2 Cents Dividend has been proposed. That means that Prestar is giving a 4% yield. Will there be another double digit dividend like those years when INSIDERS Bought As High As Rm1.00? It remains to be seen.
PRESTAR IS A STOCK WITH LIMITED DOWNSIDE WHILE ITS UPSIDE IS BRIGHT WITH THE UNFOLDING OF 10MP & 11 MASTER PLAN PROJECTS STILL BEING AWARDED.
Calvin has a target price of Rm1.00 (The Price Reached When PM Badawi implemented 9MP).
From 50 cents we expect a modest 100% Upside.
CHEERS!
Regards,
Calvin
{This article posted while holidaying in Australia.)
Note: On May 9th, 2007 PRESTAR Declared a 22% Special Dividend which equals to 11 cents. Prestar price crossed Rm1.00 then. Instead of selling Directors & Insiders were buying . As of now PRESTAR is selling at half price & Directors/Insiders are still buying. So will there be ANOTHER SPECIAL DIVIDEND?
I got caught in North Perth's Massive Traffic Jams.
And I SEE an Idea I want to share here.
I SEE the widening of Perth's Highway - leading to huge demand for more Highway Guard Rails.
Every time a rural road expands from 2 lanes to 4 lanes there is a NEED for 4 NEW SETS of Highway Guard Rails.
I can SEE So FAR From PERTH That With The Ever Increasing Number of Cars, SUVs, JEEPS, Buses, Lorries in Malaysia there will be the continual expansion of Roads into New Highways - Translating Into More Needs of Highway Guard Rails-
So HEY PRESTO! Or Rather HEY PRESTAR!
YES! PRESTAR CAME TO MIND.
Regards,
Calvin,
Perth, Australia
AND AFTER PRESTAR CROSSED RM1.20 I TOLD ALL TO SELL AS PRESTAR JUST LIKE ITS CYCLICAL PAST MIGHT CRASH BACK AGAIN. AND I WAS CORRECT
TODAY PRESTAR HAS FALLEN BACK TO 85.5 SEN (SO SORRY FOR THOSE WHO CHASED)
BUT THIS ROUND PRESTAR DIRECTORS/INSIDERS HAVBE LEARNT THEIR LESSONS WELL
SEE THEY ARE SMART TO SELL THIS ROUND:
MR TOH YEW KEAT
07-Aug-2018
Disposed
50,000
0.866
MR TOH YEW KEAT
24-Jul-2018
Disposed
29,800
0.900
MR TOH YEW KEAT
23-Jul-2018
Disposed
50,000
0.865
DATO' LIM CHEANG NYOK
06-Jun-2018
Others
73,500
0.530
MR TOH YEW KEAT
06-Jun-2018
Disposed
60,200
0.900
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
06-Apr-2018
Acquired
20,000
0.810
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
05-Apr-2018
Acquired
12,800
0.820
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
04-Apr-2018
Acquired
60,000
0.820
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
26-Mar-2018
Acquired
45,000
0.875
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
23-Mar-2018
Acquired
102,800
0.900
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
04-Jan-2018
Disposed
40,000
1.180
WATCH CAREFULLY:
BEFORE MAY 10 ELECTION THEY WERE STILL BUYIING
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
05-Apr-2018
Acquired
12,800
0.820
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
04-Apr-2018
Acquired
60,000
0.820
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
26-Mar-2018
Acquired
45,000
0.875
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
23-Mar-2018
Acquired
102,800
0.900
ENCIK MD NAHAR BIN NOORDIN
04-Jan-2018
Disposed
40,000
1.180
BUT AFTER ELECTION ON MAY 10TH 2018 WITH NEW PH GOVT IN AUSTERITY CUTTING DOWN HIGH EXPENSE INFRAR JOBS
THEY ARE SELLING!!!
MR TOH YEW KEAT
07-Aug-2018
Disposed
50,000
0.866
MR TOH YEW KEAT
24-Jul-2018
Disposed
29,800
0.900
MR TOH YEW KEAT
23-Jul-2018
Disposed
50,000
0.865
DATO' LIM CHEANG NYOK
06-Jun-2018
Others
73,500
0.530
MR TOH YEW KEAT
06-Jun-2018
Disposed
60,200
0.900
AND ALL WHO CHASE ANNJOO, SSTEEL, MASTEEL & LIONIND WILL BE SORRY LATER AS WELL IF YOU DON'T SELL EARLY AND GET OUT BEFORE THE CYCLE GOES DOWN AGAIN LIKE THE FERRIS WHELL
SEE THIS KIND OF STOCK IS JUST LIKE THE FERRIS WHEEL GOES UP AND DOWN
IT WILL GO UP AND DOWN
AND ROUND AND ROUND!!!
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More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CSCTEEL quarterly EPS 2016 Cent (2.43, 7.95, 6.57, 1.68) and 2017(4.47, 3.91, 3.80, 4.01). Mr. Koon truth to his words bought CSCTEEL on the way up in millions and Sold CSCTEEL in the millions on the way down. By the way LIONIND had acquired Megasteel and will restart production of HRC. For downstream players like Prestar, Choo Bee they are selling their products directly to the end users hence they have better control of their cash flow, cost and profit margin.
Perhaps Mr. Calvintaneng as good neighbor can lobby the Singapore government to buy more construction steel, cement and palm oil from Malaysia.
Alex dunno la... Alex only know steel play is only gooding if infra and property are booming. But Alex punya properly and infra stock also kesian, but steel huat?
I went to look up on Cscsteel Annual Report and Company news.
Cscsteel sells
1. Flat steel sheets for roofing materials. Among its customers is Astino.
2. to Automotive car parts, door panels and others. So both Proton, Perodua, Naza and all other Car companies
3. Consumer goods like fridge and many others
So Cscsteel will do very well on these 2 reasons:
1. Removal of GST powers up consumer spending
2. Tun Dr M emphasis on cars and more cars will increase demand for Cscsteel products
CSCSTEEL IS ALSO CASH RICH AND PAYING A VERY NICE 7.5% DIVIDEND.
A VERY PRUDENT MANAGEMENT FOR MANY YEARS ALREADY.
ITS PRIME FACTORY LANDS IN MELAKA IS SITTING ON A GOLD MINE JUST BESIDE THE HIGHWAY FROM AYER KEROH GOING INTO MELAKA TOWN. IDEAL FOR CONVERSION INTO A RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL TOWNSHIP
Calvin has a very small position in Cscsteel only. Just about 10,000 shares only. If prices of Cscsteel goes down togather with the fall of long steel i will add more on weakness. I had already sold and taken profit on my 2 long steel - Masteel which was bought at 66 sen and Prestar i bought near bottom at 45 sen.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Koon Bee
Calvintaneng no need sleep kah?
2018-08-24 04:10