THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

The Micro Picture of Long Steel Might Be Good Only Short Term But The Macro Picture Longer Term is Bad, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Fri, 24 Aug 2018, 04:06 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,841
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys,

Long Steel Stock Like Lionind is now hot hot because most see it as good due to many infrar jobs already secured with its projected profits. But that is only the micro picture. The Macro Picture is Bad.

Why do I say that?

Answer:

Long Steel is a Cyclical Group of Stocks depending mostly in Govt Linked Public Works & in a smaller measure the Building of High Rise Office & Condo

 

Look at long steel

Image result for long steel bars and mrt pillars picture

 

Image result for long steel bars and mrt pillars picture

 

Image result for long steel bars and mrt pillars picture

 

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE ABOVE EXAMPLES LONG STEEL IS USED FOR HEAVY INFRAR JOBS - USUALLY BY GOVERNMENT PROPOSED MRT, LRT, HIGHWAYS, HSR, RAIL OR OTHER HEAVY INDUSTRIAL NEEDS.

AND ALONG WITH THESE GOVT RELATED INFRAR JOBS ARE AN INCREASING USAGE OF CEMENT

 

SO LONG STEEL DEMAND USUALLY GO HAND IN HAND WITH DEMAND FOR CEMENT.

LONG STEEL COMPANIES ARE ANNJOO, SSTEEL, MASTEEL & LIONIND 

 

FLAT STEEL ON THE OTHER HAND DEPENDS ON THE CONSUMER (NOT GOVERNMENT)

FLAT STEEL IS USED FOR CAR ROOF, BONNETS, DOORS, FRIDGE PANEL & DOORS, WASHING MACHING, OVEN, AIRCOND & ALSO USED  AS FURNITURE BED FRAME

Image result for picture of flat steel

 

FLAT STEEL COMPANIES ARE CSCSTEEL & MYCRON STEEL

 

AFTER ELECTION THE PH GOVT ABOLISHED GST AND PUT MONIES INTO THE POCKETS OF CONSUMERS.

SEE HOW CARS SOLD LIKE HOT CAKES!

THIS WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR FLAT STEEL.

 

 

NOW WHAT IS THE LATEST PLAN IN THE NEW PH GOVT?

 

THEY ARE CANCELLING HIGHLY EXPENSIVE INFRAR JOBS LIKE ECER, 2 GAS PIPE LINES. POSSIBLE CANCELLATION OF HIGH SPEED RAIL. SCALE DOWN OR POSTPONE SOME MRT & LRT JOBS

AND NOT MORE NEW HIGH INFRAR JOBS AS IT SEEK TO CUT DEBT & COST

THAT MEANS THAT AFTER THESE FEW MORE QUARTERS THE DEMAND FOR LONG STEEL WILL FIZZLE OUT!

AND THESE HIGH FLYING HOT STOCKS OF THE MOMENT WILL DEFLATE ONE BY ONE

SO IF THIS COMING ONE OR TWO QUARTERS FOR LONG STEEL IF RESULTS ARE STILL GOOD. IT WILL BE THE MOST OPPORTUNE TIME TO SELL INTO STRENGTH & ESCAPE

 

LAST TIME 10 YEARS AGO WHEN EX PM AHMAD BADAWI IMPLEMENTED THE 9 MP CALVIN BOUGHT LOTS OF LONG STEEL COUNTERS INCLUDING PRESTAR WHICH MAKE GUARDRAILS FOR HIGHWAYS

 

I BOUGHT PRESTAR AT 60 SEN TO 70 SEN. SUDDENLY PRESTAR DECLARED A NICE 11 SEN DIVIDEND & WITH GOOD RESULTS PRESTAR SHARE PRICE POWERED UP TO CROSS RM1.00

BOTH MY JOHOR SIFU & I SOLD ALL PRESTAR AND DIDN'T LOOK BACK

 

BUT TO MY SURPRISE PRESTAR DIRECTORS/INSIDERS BOUGHT EVEN MORE PRESTAR SHARES ABOVE RM1.00

THEY DID NOT ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT FALL IN DEMAND & PRESTAR PRICE CRASHED BACK TO 70 SEN. AND IT EVEN CRASHED LOWER THAN THAT TO 45 SEN UNTIL 11 MP WHEN BN STARTED TO BUILD 7 NEW HIGHWAYS

 

SO CALVIN "SEEING" THE UPTURN CALLED FOR A BUY ON PRESTAR AGAIN AT 45 SEN

SEE

 

PRESTAR – THE UNDERVALUE LAGGARD CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCK

There remains a Class of Underperforming Stocks that might go against the trend – “THE CONSTRUCTION  MATERIAL STOCKS LIKE KPSCB, KIMLUN, CEPCO & PRESTAR”. As KPSCB, KIMLUN & CEPCO Have Already Run Up 20% to 30% In Prices Our Focus Now Turn To  PRESTAR.

 

PRESTAR Or PRE-STAR

“PRE” As in “PREVIOUS” Or “Before”

Or In Other Words “Before IT TURNS INTO A STAR”

SO NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY PRESTAR “BEFORE IT TURNS INTO A STAR PERFORMING STOCK”

 

PRESTAR – THE RISING STAR AMONG CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCKS!

ITS SALIENT FACTORS:

1)  At 50 cents with NTA at Rm1.23 PRESTAR IS SELLING AT A HUGE 60% DISCOUNT TO NTA. It Has A Big Margin of Safety.

2) Foreward P/E is a low 3.66. Beating many Export Furniture and E & E Stocks hands down.

3) Its Debt is Well Cushioned By Its High Tangible Assets Still Not Revalued Yet. Its Properties were purchased long ago in strategic locations. If Company wanted to It Can Revalue All Its Properties Like HapSeng, Seacera & Eg and book them as immense profits.

4) Unlike All Other Steel Companies Impacted by China Steel Dumping PRESTAR Like KPSCB, KIMLUN & CEPCO Are Into Niche Manufacturing of Specialty Construction Materials like High Way Guard Rails and Wheel Barrows. So It has avoided the carnage caused by Cheap China Steel.

5) 10 Highways Including Pasir Gudang Highway, West Coastal Highway, Bandar Penawar – Sungai Ringgit Highway, Pengerang Highway & the 1,600 km Pan Borneo Highway will spur Great Demand for Prestar’s Highway Guardrails.

6) Prestar also stand to reap higher profit due to the collapse of nickel and iron ore prices by 60% to 70% as its Guard Rails use a lot of nickel. This will boost Prestar’s profits further.

7) Prestar also has a factory in Vietnam like Pohuat. With TPP now signed Prestar will do very well as both Vietnam & Malaysia are expected to be top beneficiaries.

8) PRESTAR Also Invest In The Shares of POSCO, In Which the World’s Greatest Investor, Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway,  has a Share also.  Partnership in prosperity!

9) SEEING ITS BRIGHT FUTURE INSIDERS AND DIRECTORS HAVE BOUGHT MILLIONS OF PRESTAR SHARES ON THE QUIET. A Check with these Directors and Insiders Show That They Have Bought PRESTAR Shares As High As Rm1.00 And Now Still Buying Even More at Depressed Prices.

10) A 2 Cents Dividend has been proposed. That means that Prestar is giving a 4% yield. Will there be another double digit dividend like those years when INSIDERS Bought As High As Rm1.00?  It remains to be seen.

PRESTAR IS A STOCK WITH LIMITED DOWNSIDE WHILE ITS UPSIDE IS BRIGHT WITH THE UNFOLDING OF 10MP & 11 MASTER PLAN PROJECTS STILL BEING AWARDED.

 

Calvin has a target price of Rm1.00 (The Price Reached When PM Badawi implemented 9MP).

From 50 cents we expect a modest 100% Upside.

 

CHEERS!

Regards,

Calvin

{This article posted while holidaying in Australia.)

Note: On May 9th, 2007 PRESTAR Declared a 22% Special Dividend which equals to 11 cents. Prestar price crossed Rm1.00 then. Instead of selling Directors & Insiders were buying . As of now PRESTAR is selling at half price & Directors/Insiders are still buying. So will there be ANOTHER SPECIAL DIVIDEND?

 

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Thu, 23 Aug 2018, 11:37 PM   |  >> Go to Blog Dashboard

  

PRESTAR: PRE-STAR Or Before It Turns into A STAR PERFORMING STOCK By Calvin Tan (Perth, Australia)

Author:   |    Publish date: 



Hi Guys!

I am now in Perth, Australia.

I first came to Perth about 20 years ago.

Then Perth was quite backward & rural.

Not anymore now.

I got caught in North Perth's Massive Traffic Jams.

 

And I SEE an Idea I want to share here.

SEE the widening of Perth's Highway - leading to huge demand for more Highway Guard Rails.

 

Every time a rural road expands from 2 lanes to 4 lanes there is a NEED for 4 NEW SETS of Highway Guard Rails.

I can SEE So FAR From PERTH That With The Ever Increasing Number of Cars, SUVs, JEEPS, Buses, Lorries in Malaysia there will be the continual expansion of Roads into New Highways - Translating Into More Needs of Highway Guard Rails-

 

So HEY PRESTO! Or Rather HEY PRESTAR!

 

YES! PRESTAR CAME TO MIND.

 

Regards,

 

Calvin,

Perth, Australia

 

AND AFTER PRESTAR CROSSED RM1.20 I TOLD ALL TO SELL AS PRESTAR JUST LIKE ITS CYCLICAL PAST MIGHT CRASH BACK AGAIN. AND I WAS CORRECT

 

TODAY PRESTAR HAS FALLEN BACK TO 85.5 SEN (SO SORRY FOR THOSE WHO CHASED)

BUT THIS ROUND PRESTAR DIRECTORS/INSIDERS HAVBE LEARNT THEIR LESSONS WELL

SEE THEY ARE SMART TO SELL THIS ROUND:

 

 

WATCH CAREFULLY:

BEFORE MAY 10 ELECTION THEY WERE STILL BUYIING

 

 

BUT AFTER ELECTION ON MAY 10TH 2018 WITH NEW PH GOVT IN AUSTERITY CUTTING DOWN HIGH EXPENSE INFRAR JOBS

THEY ARE SELLING!!!

 

 

 

 

AND ALL WHO CHASE ANNJOO, SSTEEL, MASTEEL & LIONIND WILL BE SORRY LATER AS WELL IF YOU DON'T SELL EARLY AND GET OUT BEFORE THE CYCLE GOES DOWN AGAIN LIKE THE FERRIS WHELL

 

SEE THIS KIND OF STOCK IS JUST LIKE THE FERRIS WHEEL GOES UP AND DOWN

 

Image result for ferris wheel pictures

 
AND ROUND AND ROUND!!!
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 29 of 29 comments

Koon Bee

Calvintaneng no need sleep kah?

2018-08-24 04:10

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 04:17

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 04:19

Koon Bee

LOL..Calvintaneng so late didnt sleep go fetch your wife from geylang? I heard she have alot of customer today.

2018-08-24 04:31

feimah

Prestar coming QR will not able to match with last year. EPS expected to decline.

2018-08-24 07:50

Koon Bee

Holland king proven in stock pick 2017 everyday post sonmuch rubbish article. Diu nia sheng. Pukimak lu tan eng

2018-08-24 07:52

Sslee

Dear Calvintaneng,
CSCSTEEL and MYCRON is mid stream steel company. They imported Hot Roll Steel and make into Cold Roll Steel and sell it to manufactures in Malaysia. Previous they were force to buy expensive HRC from Megasteel as Malaysia Government imposed import duty on HRC. And now they have to face the costly import and unable to pass down the cost to downstream manufacturers.
When Megasteel ceases operation in 2016 Mr. Koon promoted CSCTEEL as the most beneficial from the closure of Megasteel compare to other steel company especially Choo Bee.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/104831.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/104931.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/105559.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/105723.jsp


CSCTEEL quarterly EPS 2016 Cent (2.43, 7.95, 6.57, 1.68) and 2017(4.47, 3.91, 3.80, 4.01). Mr. Koon truth to his words bought CSCTEEL on the way up in millions and Sold CSCTEEL in the millions on the way down.
By the way LIONIND had acquired Megasteel and will restart production of HRC.
For downstream players like Prestar, Choo Bee they are selling their products directly to the end users hence they have better control of their cash flow, cost and profit margin.

Perhaps Mr. Calvintaneng as good neighbor can lobby the Singapore government
to buy more construction steel, cement and palm oil from Malaysia.

Thank you

2018-08-24 08:52

calvintaneng

Good morning SSLEE

SINGAPORE IMPORTS LOTS OF INTERMEDIARY GOODS FROM MALAYSIA FOR RE EXPORT ALL OVER THE WORLD.

YOU CAN SEE ALL THE LONG LINES OF LORRIES EVERYDAY FROM 2ND LINK BRIDGE AND THE OLD CAUSEWAY.

SPORE ALSO IMPORT ALMOST ALL ITS CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL FROM MALAYSIA LIKE CEMENT, CEMENT STRUCTURES AND STEEL.

2018-08-24 09:31

calvintaneng

THE CYCLE FOR LONG STEEL IS NOW TOPPISH AND GOING DOWN UNTIL PH GOVT IMPLEMENTS 12TH MALAYSIA PLANT WHICH WILL BE 4 YEARS AWAY.

WITHIN THESE YEARS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE BUSINESS FOR LONG STEEL COMPANIES
LIKE ANNJOO, SSTEEL, MASTEEL, LIONIND AND PRESTAR.

SO PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RETRACE DOWNWARD AGAIN UNTIL THE NEXT UP CYCLE.

IN THOSE DARK AND BLEAK DAYS ANNJOO FELL TO NEAR 60 SEN, MASTEEL NEAR 30 SEN, SSTEEL 80 SEN, AND BOTH LIONIND AND PRESTAR NEAR 40 SEN

THEY ALL RISE IN TANDEM BUT ALSO FELL TOGETHER AS A CLASS ON ITS OWN.

2018-08-24 09:36

hollandking

what about china's or global demand for steel?

2018-08-24 09:36

calvintaneng

AS FOR LIONIND ACQUIRING THE MEGA DYNASOUR CALLED MEGASTEEL IT WILL BE A TALL ORDER FOR 2 REASONS

1. LIONIND BALANCE SHEET SHOWS DEBT AND PAYABLES OF RM1.1 BILLIONS WHILE CASH AND RECEIVABLES ONLY RM900 MILLIONS.

SO THERE IS A SHORTFALL OF RM200 MILLIONS

2. COST OF BUYING OVER MEGASTEEL WITH ALL ITS ASSETS AND LIABILITIES ANOTHER RM650 MILLIONS

SO LIONIND WILL NEED TO RAISE RM850 MILLIONS.

NOW JUST AS JAKS FACED CASH CALL BY RIGHTS ISSUES

MEGASTEEL REVIVAL WILL NEED LOTS OF CASH CALL FROM LIONIND SHAREHOLDERS

AND HOW MANY ARE WILLING TO TAKE UP RIGHTS ISSUES OF LIONIND IN ANSWER TO FURTHER CASH CALLS?

DON'T FORGET THAT EVEN MRCB WAS SOLD DOWN FROM RM1.80 TO LESS THAN 90 SENS WHEN MRCB ISSUED RI AT 1 RIGHTS WITH 1 FREE WARRANT.

SO LIONIND WON'T ESCAPE THE SAME COMING CARNAGE OF AN RI SHOCK.

EVEN IF YOU WANT TO GAMBLE ....GAMBLE WITH YOUR EYES OPEN LAH

OR ELSE WHEN LION COMES....ALL GET EATEN AND NOT KNOWING WHY.

2018-08-24 09:44

calvintaneng

hollandking

FORGET GLOBAL DEMAND AS USA AND CHINA ENGAGE IN A PRICE WAR

DURING THE 1930S GREAT DEPRESSION RUBBER FELL FROM RM100 PER PICUL TO LESS THAN RM10 PER PICUL.

ONE OF CALVIN'S BUDDY FATHER WHO OWNED A RUBBER PLANTATION IN JOHOR LEFT HIS RUBBER TREES UNTAPPED AS SALE OF RUBBER LATEX CANNOT COVER WAGES.

THIS ROUND STEEL DEMAND WILL SHRINK IF PRICE WARS INTENSIFY

2018-08-24 09:49

calvintaneng

BOTH LIONIND AND JAKS WILL FACE CASH CALLS

JAKS BECAUSE IT HAS NOT ENOUGH CASH. THE PROJECTED PROFIT FROM VIET JOB IS AN ILLUSION OF IOUS

AS FOR LIONIND THE CASH CALL FOR MEGASTEEL WILL BE RM650 MILLIONS

PLUS RM200 DEBT LIONIND HOLDERS ARE FACING AT LEAST RM1.00 PER RI

BETTER BUY IS DUTALAND

DUTALAND WILL REPORT RM750 MILLIONS CASH INFLOW IF 88 SEN

AND AT LEAST 5 SEN DIVIDEND WHICH IS 9% YIELD!!!


GO SWITCH JAKS AND LIONIND FOR DUTALAND NOW! NOW!! NOW!!!

2018-08-24 10:08

hollandking

wow, like that they also bet heavily on Lionind, just incredible. So this means WC will very likely make his move when the price is right.

2018-08-24 11:51

calvintaneng

May day!
May day!!
May day!!!

Sapeng kena. Cash call by RI

LIMIT DOWN!!
LIMIT DOWN!!

SAP KENA SAPPED OFF ITS ENERGY!!!

NEXT WILL BE JAKS

JAKS WILL KENA CASH CALL


CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY LIONIND

CASH CALL FOR BUYING MEGASTEEL!!!


AIYOOYOO


POOR POOR I3 SORCHAI SARDINE

LEFT HANG GOT LION

RIGHT HAND GOT JAWS

THIS TIME FINISHED LEOW!!!

2018-08-24 15:15

calvintaneng

LIONIND GOT DEFICIT OF RM200 MILLIONS

ANOTHER RM650 MILLIONS NEEDED TO TAKE OVER MEGASTEEL

SO TOTAL CASH CALL IS RM850 MILLIONS

SURE TO GET CASH CALL LIKE SAPNRG LATER!!!

GET READY TO PAY FROM 50 SEN TO 70 SEN

BETTER WAKE UP BEFORE TOO LATE!!!

2018-08-24 15:42

calvintaneng

JAKS NEED TO RAISE

RM950 MILLIONS FOR VIET POWER PLANTS

ANOTHER RM50 MILLIONS TO PAY STAR MEDIA LAWSUIT

SO TOTAL CASH CALL FROM RI IS RM1 BILLIONS!!

GET READY TO PAY 70 SEN TO RM1.00 PER RI SHARES

DON'T RUN NOW SURE KENA LIKE SAP ERG LATER!!!
24/08/2018 15:36

2018-08-24 15:43

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 16:19

calvintaneng

The last hurrah for long steel is the last opportunity to sell into strength and escape!

2018-08-24 20:50

joetay20

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 20:58

calvintaneng

Sifu Warren Buffet said investing in stocks by looking at past quarters is like driving while looking at the rear view mirror.

For long steel its glory days are soon over.

For flat steel like Cscsteel Proton sale surge plus Gst removal that spur consumer goods buying will do very well.

Cscsteel gave a yearly dividend of 10 sen or more than 7.5% which is superb.

Cash rich and debt free plus more business ahead Cscsteel will turn into a Star performing stock again.

While long steel cycle now turns down flat steel fortune like Cscsteel is turning up

2018-08-24 21:07

joetay20

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 21:12

Alexâ„¢

Alex dunno la... Alex only know steel play is only gooding if infra and property are booming. But Alex punya properly and infra stock also kesian, but steel huat?

2018-08-24 21:15

joetay20

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 21:20

joetay20

@alex, most of the steel produced in malaysia is for infra, property and o&g.

some r also used for automotive parts but not for the bodies.

2018-08-24 21:23

joetay7

Post removed.Why?

2018-08-24 22:55

calvintaneng

I went to look up on Cscsteel Annual Report and Company news.

Cscsteel sells

1. Flat steel sheets for roofing materials. Among its customers is Astino.

2. to Automotive car parts, door panels and others. So both Proton, Perodua, Naza and all other Car companies

3. Consumer goods like fridge and many others

So Cscsteel will do very well on these 2 reasons:

1. Removal of GST powers up consumer spending

2. Tun Dr M emphasis on cars and more cars will increase demand for Cscsteel products

CSCSTEEL IS ALSO CASH RICH AND PAYING A VERY NICE 7.5% DIVIDEND.

A VERY PRUDENT MANAGEMENT FOR MANY YEARS ALREADY.

ITS PRIME FACTORY LANDS IN MELAKA IS SITTING ON A GOLD MINE JUST BESIDE THE HIGHWAY FROM AYER KEROH GOING INTO MELAKA TOWN. IDEAL FOR CONVERSION INTO A RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL TOWNSHIP

Calvin has a very small position in Cscsteel only. Just about 10,000 shares only. If prices of Cscsteel goes down togather with the fall of long steel i will add more on weakness. I had already sold and taken profit on my 2 long steel - Masteel which was bought at 66 sen and Prestar i bought near bottom at 45 sen.

Good luck.

2018-08-25 11:48

calvintaneng

calvintaneng Posted by newbie911 > Aug 26, 2018 12:28 AM | Report Abuse

Why cbip dropping like no 2moro?

Cbip is a cyclical stock in down trend. As value emerge insiders are buying. Will take time for CPO upcycle again to do well

Last time Calvin bought Southern Steel at Rm2.00. SSteel was given privatisation by Hong Leong Group around Rm2.20 but was rejected. Then

Calvin sold off SSteel around Rm2.10 as it turned down.

Later SSteel fell down. And then SSteel issued Cash call by offering Loan stock at Rm1.00 with 5% dividend

At that SSteel even fell below 90 sen. After that long wait SSteel powered up again to cross Rm2.30 on Sept 8th 2017 many years later.

So if CPO type of stocks fell to bottom can add more if there are margins of safety
26/08/2018 00:35

2018-08-26 00:39

calvintaneng

Southern Steel was a Cyclical

It went up. And it gone down

Now it goes up again

And sure as all cyclicals Southern Steel will also go down again like all other Cyclical long steel stocks.

The trick is to buy Southern Steel below Rm1.00

But when Southern Steel was below Rm1.00 who dared to buy?

NOBODY WANTED SSTEEL AT LESS THAN RM1.00. AND THEN MANY PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN SSTEEL AFTER CROSSING RM2.00 AGAIN?

THIS IS VERY WRONG

FOR CYCLICALS YOU MUST BUY IN PESSIMISM AND SELL INTO EUPHORIA

NOT CHASE AT PEAK PRICES AND LATER GET CAUGHT!!!

THEN CANNOT ESCAPE FOR MANY AGONISING YEARS LATER!

2018-08-26 00:43

Post a Comment