THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Excerpts from REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR, Edwin Lefevre (With comments by Calvin Tan Research)

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 03 Mar 2019, 05:20 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys,

I first read Reminiscences of A Stock Operator more than 10 years ago. An investment book on trading. Which is good to read and which I seldom follow. But there is one passage that I like very much. So I am sharing it here in i3 forum

 

From page 63

Studying my winning plays in Fullerton's office I discovered that although I often was 100 per cent right on the market---

that is, in my diagnosis of conditions and general trend----I was not making as much money as my market "rightness" entitled me to. Why wasn't it?

 

There was as much to learn as from partial victory as from defeat.

.For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and i had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as i had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the older statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand I made two thousand. That was what conservatism did for me.

In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!  Well, there was an old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips---that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again ---when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigge was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not everyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

 

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friends of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. Bt whether the tip they had was to buy or sell , the old chap's answer was always the same.

The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity  and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"

Old Turkey would cock hs head  to one side contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively. "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after JOhn sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey. "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'ii be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitious, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.

"well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiatic graitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!"

 

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"

"What?" yelled Elmer.

"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.

"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"

"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But---"

"Hold on!" Let me talk And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"

"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself.  It is a habit for tip givers to be tip takers.

"No. I couldn't."

"Why not?" And Elmer dew nearer.

"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."

"MY dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress---"my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"

I didn't say anything. So he went on:"I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"

"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockfeller. 

 

To be continued...

 

It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It always was my siting, Get that?  My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear market. i've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or seling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. 

And their experience invariably matched mine---that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest thing to learn.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do.

The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight

In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks

---By Edwin Lefevre

 

Calvin comments:

"A most stupid thing to do in a rising bull stock is to sell it and let it go too early. Hoping to buy it back on retracement which never happen. Then let the bull slip and watch it run away!"

 

We are in a Oil&Gas Bull Run Time Now

So don't just sell for a small profit

If Dayang goes up... PENERGY (5133) Should Go Up In Tandem

See the Latitude Chart below:

At the outset of 2013 Latitude was only Rm1.00

Suppose some had sold at Rm1.50 after a 50% gain he would have lost his position

Will he buy it back at Rm2.00? Most probably not

What if Latitude had crossed Rm3.00? He definitely would not enter again & missed the rest of the rally till Latitude reached the high of Rm8.00

So don't simply sell a bull Stock if the bull is still young

Learn to buy & sit still (Especially in OGSE stocks)

 

LATITUDE TREE HOLDINGS BERHAD [S] (7006)

Company Website 
Annual Report 
General Meetings


LATITUDE TREE HOLDINGS BHD (7006) Chart
Chart Period:
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

calvintaneng

In a bull market the best thing to do is to sit still and do nothing

2019-03-03 21:35

Choivo Capital

Calvin, this feels like it is veering very dangerously into pure speculation.

Good luck, please do you best to ensure people following you are using play money and not real money.

2019-03-03 21:47

calvintaneng

Yes the book is dangerous
So I didn't follow

BUT if the fundamental of a new rally has not gone into greater fool zone it is still ok

OGSE is supported by revenue from Petronas

2019-03-03 22:14

FamousAmos

Tan End how about another OG stocks you promoted last time - Perisai

2019-03-03 22:40

calvintaneng

Perisai caused problem for Ezra in Spore. Both didn't make it. As well as Armada, Daya, Barakah Offshore, Alam Martin. Sapnrg & perdana got high debt

Only those that survived the Crude oil crisis unscathed will do well

Penergy and deleum are managed better.

So now is the time to buy laggard Penergy

2019-03-03 22:51

PureBULL .

Dear sifu calvintaneng,
Do u know this is the BEST story ever written abt making MONEY in stocks?
All the super rich n famous PROS in Wall Street swear at it all the time.

All talents hoping to get into most competitive job in wall street r expected to deeply understand this story inside out or they r out for good.

How NICE I know this story 30 yrs ago. Never sorry or too late to learn it few yrs only.
The 1st class STRATEGY is so so GOOD, aiming at the RIGHT Timing.
My friend, the # 1 stockist in Msia record has the same exact life story of Jesse Livermore, the price marker on the wide board.

Jealous pple called him pie.kar.teoh from BTC (Boh Tak Chet) University.
On the day AIRASIA was listed, its stock price ding dong all day, capped by a super HUGE seller at 98, the ipo price I guess.
Teoh told me he watched the # of buyers n sellers every minute for the entire day against the price to confirm the invisible buyer. Then at the right timing in the afternoon session, he whacked out ALL the BIG sellers at 98 n 99.
Then what happened?
AIRASIA price flied all the way up n UP...
Teoh made a massive bundle, he told me when we met in the elevator that day going home.
04/03/2019 03:57

NB the demand n supply pts:
i. When u see a huge sellers n the price is steady eddy n high, don't rush in to sell or u might consider buying instead!
ii. U rush in to 'belanja' to the big buyer in queue when prices r easing n weakening down.
Tis a reverse pricing psychology game.

Another book by International DANCER, Nicholas Darvas from canada;
How I made 2 million dollars

Darvas told the almost similar story as Jesse Livermore.
A short story of Darvas dancing around the cities of the world n how he discovered a simple yet v POWERFUL way to double double his money to $2 million.

2019-03-04 06:14

John Lu

Dayang could limit up today

2019-03-04 07:28

calvintaneng

Good morning sifu pureBULL

Yes Jesse Livermore is expert in watching and studying the ticker tape movement in his day.

I don't spend so much time watching stock price movement as I don't trade that often

BUT studying the pre-conditions and the trend that follows is of utmost importance

When PM Bawadi suddenly implemented the 9mp (9 Malaysia plan), I instinctively knew what to buy

Cement and steel

For cement it was so easy
Bought cima at rm2. 40
Tasek at rm2. 90
Ytl cement at Rm2. 20
Lafarge at 66 sen
To be chun chun then was a no brainer. Cima was taken private by Uem while ytl cement was taken private by Ytl. Tasek gone up to cross Rm16. 00 and Lafarge merged 4 into one and also crossed Rm10. 00

For steel it was tricky as at that time I did not know the difference between long and flat steel

Only long steel like Annjoo, Southern steel and masteel benefitted and the rest did not move much

From then I knew for stocks to rise there must be a catalyst, a fresh demand or a trigger

AND the collapse of ringgit due to Imdb scandal caused Malaysian export like vs and furniture stocks to be super competitive which then caused the super bullrun in latitude. Lihen, Pohuat and hevea

Now this is the time for OGSE stocks due to the catalyst from Pengerang Rapid extra demand for crude oil.

AND so to be bullish in 0nG is to ride the chun chun bull of the time now.

2019-03-04 08:11

Sslee

Dear Calvintaneng,
Good morning. Just saw your article (Haha spend the whole Sunday reading Jonlohsoh’s article again and again on a wonderful company)Reminiscences of stock operator, Edwin Lefevre: Sun 3 March 2019. I rub my eye again did I read wrong? Yes it was Sunday article by Calvintaneng. I always thought Sunday is for god day. Amen.

I haven’t sees you so bullish, enthusiasm and excited for a very long time and now even quote Latitude.
Note: “LVL” is Koon’s registry IP you had to pay licensing fee to use any on it in your article.

Thank you
P/S: Just pulling your leg. Thank you again I had profited by trading your recently recommended O&G stocks and still keeping some but as I always say I only keep about 1/3 in my portfolio for trading and theme play purpose and no “Sialang” or Margin finance.

2019-03-04 08:47

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2019-03-04 09:18

Karenng

I have been following your articles and love reading it. It make a lot of sense. Very bullish recommendations. Thanks again Calvin for your good articles.

2019-03-04 13:59

newbie8080

I think is not so easy to just sit still and enjoy the rally as we do not know how high and how low it will go. As this historical chart shows the entire cycle, the start and end, of course we see your point.

However,let's give an example of Hibiscus, a live example.
Say by next Friday it slowly creeps up to RM1.80, will you sit still or sell?

2019-03-04 18:22

newbie8080

Assuming you had bought it at RM1.

2019-03-04 18:23

calvintaneng

Posted by Karenng > Mar 4, 2019 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

I have been following your articles and love reading it. It make a lot of sense. Very bullish recommendations. Thanks again Calvin for your good articles.

Thank you very much Karen

Especially the phrase ""It make a lot of sense.""

2019-03-04 18:45

qqq3

calvin....money is money.....profits is profits.....its not immoral or illegal to trade shares..............as long as doing it within the law.......

2019-03-04 18:49

calvintaneng

Posted by newbie8080 > Mar 4, 2019 06:23 PM | Report Abuse

Assuming you had bought it at RM1.

Newbie

Let me tell you a secret my Johor Sifu taught me 13 years ago in year 2006

Buy X shares say 30 lots or 30,000 shares

If at 75 sen

Then if price goes up to Rm1.50 that means "chun chun" 100% gain

Now what should you do?

He said sell half

Half means 100% profit and 1/2 x 2 = 1

SO THAT'S MEANS GET BACK ORIGINAL CAPITAL FIRST

The Other Half is All Profit

And leave it there for "profit" to run

So this was how he became multi millionaie

2019-03-04 18:51

qqq3

alvintaneng > Mar 4, 2019 06:51 PM | Report Abuse

Half means 100% profit and 1/2 x 2 = 1

SO THAT'S MEANS GET BACK ORIGINAL CAPITAL FIRST

The Other Half is All Profit
=========

do whatever u like...........its all about price later

2019-03-04 19:09

(S = Qr) Philip

Nice article.

Best thing is it works.

I sat still in QL since 2009 and added my position every quarter for 10 years.

I still hold QL now.

Long live Mr partridge!

2019-03-06 07:20

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