THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

THE PURPOSE OF i3 INVESTORS FORUM IS TO DISCUSS ABOUT STOCK INVESTMENTS, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 28 Sep 2019, 05:23 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Friends, Investors & Traders of i3 Investor's Forum,

This is a nice afternoon in Singapore.

Time to share something I always wanted to share Uppermost in my mind

I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.

And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.

So I asked him what should people be sharing?

He said people should share and contribute their experiences from where they work or where they stay.

Like if you live on Penang Island you can share about the current status of Penang. As we live in Johor this knowledge will help us to understand Penang better. Not coming to quarrel and be contentious. Just learn to contribute ideas. Helpful ideas

 

Now let Calvin illustrate

Human beings like bees and ants are social creatures. We thrive by sharing and learning from one another

Scout ants will go out and look for food source. Once an ant discovers a food source it will go back and tell others

 

Related image

 

 

The bees also do the same.

Once the scout bee found a good food scource it returns to the beehive to do a bee dance to show its comrades the location of the food scource

 

Dance Language of the Honey Bee

Social behavior in bees has a number of advantages. One of the most important of these is the ability to quickly mobilize a large number of foragers to gather floral resources that may only be available for a short period of time. The ability to communicate location with such precision is one of the most interesting behaviors of a very interesting insect.

The recruitment of foragers from a hive begins when a scout bee returns to the hive engorged with nectar from a newly found nectar source. She begins by spending 30-45 seconds regurgitating and distributing nectar to bees waiting in the hive. Once her generosity has garnered an audience, the dancing begins. There are 2 types of bee dances: the round dance and the tail-wagging or waggle dance, with a transitional form known as the sickle dance.

In all cases the quality and quantity of the food source determines the liveliness of the dances. If the nectar source is of excellent quality, nearly all foragers will dance enthusiastically and at length each time they return from foraging. Food sources of lower quality will produce fewer, shorter, and less vigorous dances; recruiting fewer new foragers.

Click below to see

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU_KD1enR3Q

 

SINCE ANTS AND BEES ARE SOCIAL CREATURES THAT LIVE LIKE A COMMUNITY THE INVESTMENT FORUM SHOULD BE A PLACE TO DISCUSS ABOUT INVESTING IN GOOD STOCKS

 

NOW SIFU PETER LYNCH HAD TOLD US ABOUT THE 6 CLASSES OF STOCKS

See

PETER LYNCH MAGELLAN FUND BEATS WARREN BUFFET BERKSHIRE IN HIS DAYS

A good entry point for getting more details about the story comes from knowing what category of stock you are considering.

THE 6 CATEGORY OF STOCKS (With Comments by CALVIN IN CAPITAL LETTERS)

Slow growers (sluggards)

These are “large and aging” companies that were once fast growers but have since fallen back for any number of reasons. In Lynch’s words, they “pooped out.” Often, they are companies in an industry that has lost momentum, and their charts resemble the topographical map of Delaware: simply flat. Not that these stocks should be overlooked—they often pay generous dividends.

Medium growers (stalwarts)

“These multibillion-dollar hulks are not exactly agile climbers, but they’re faster than slow growers.” Lynch expected stalwarts to deliver gains of 30% to 50%, after which he would sell them and find new, undervalued issues. He also expected annual earnings growth of 10% to 12% and liked to keep some stalwarts in his portfolio because they offer defensive protection during market slumps: “You know they won’t go bankrupt, and soon enough they will be reassessed and their value will be restored.”

LISTEN AGAIN ” Lynch expected stalwarts to deliver gains of 30% to 50%, after which he would sell them and find new, undervalued issues.

LIKE SIFU JOHN NEFF PETER LYNCH SAID AFTER STALWARTS ROSE UP 50% YOU SHOULD SELL THEM AND SWITCH TO OTHER UNDERVALUE STOCKS. SO YOU DON'T KEEP A STOCK FOR EVER. YOU SHOULD SELL WHEN PRICES ARE RICH AND ELEVATED

 

Fast growers

These favorites of Lynch are “small, aggressive new enterprises that grow at 20 to 25 percent a year.” This is the category to explore if you want to find 10- to 40-baggers, and perhaps even more. According to Lynch, fast-growing companies may be part of fast-growing industries, but he preferred fast growers in a slow-growth industry. Examples from his time included Marriott International Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR), which had been able to grow 20% annually while the hotel industry grew at just 2%. Among the winning stories were retailers that learned to succeed in one place and then duplicate their formula: Walmart (NYSE:WMT), The Gap (NYSE:GPS) and Yum Brands' (NYSE:YUM) Taco Bell.

 

Cyclicals

“A cyclical is a company whose sales and profits rise and fall in regular if not completely predictable fashion.” In contrast to fast growers, cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries. Cyclical stocks do well as economies come out of recession and begin to expand.You can, however, also lose half your investment if you buy in the wrong part of the cycle. Lynch calls them the “most misunderstood” type of stocks. As large and well-known companies, they are often confused with stalwarts. People who work in cyclical industries have an edge over other investors.

READ AGAIN

cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries

CYCLICALS EXPAND AND CONTRACT (ALMOST CONTINUALLY) THAT MEANS THAT PRICES GO UP AND ALSO GO DOWN AGAIN VERY FAST 

Cyclical stocks do well as economies come out of recession and begin to expand

THAT WAS WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL CEMENT STOCKS WHEN PM BADAWI IMPLEMENTED HUGE INFRAR JOBS FOR 9MP (CALVIN KNEW CEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR INFRAR WORKS LIKE HIGHWAYS, BUILDINGS AND OTHERS (TASEK, YTL CEMENT, CIMA & LAFARGE WENT UP 100% TO 500% LATER) AND WHEN INFRAR JOBS OVER CEMENT PRICES CRASHED AGAIN. LONG STEEL LIKE MASTEEL ALSO ROSE FROM 35 SEN TO RM1.90 AND CRASHED BELOW 50 SEN AGAIN LIKE A YO-YO OR FERRIS WHEEL

You can, however, also lose half your investment if you buy in the wrong part of the cycle. Lynch calls them the “most misunderstood” type of stocks

CORRECT! IF YOU BOUGHT TASEK AT RM16.00 OR MASTEEL AT RM1.90 THEN WHEN IT TURNS DOWN YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE UNTIL YOU LOSE YOUR SHIRT (BUT AT PEAK MANY ARE SUCKED IN LIKE HENGYUAN AT RM19.00, JAKS AT RM1.80, IFCA AT RM1.87 & OTHERS)

 

You can, however, also lose half your investment if you buy in the wrong part of the cycle. Lynch calls them the “most misunderstood” type of stocks

CYCLICALS ARE "THE MOST MISUNDERSTOOD" TYPE OF STOCKS

People like 3iii has no clue about cyclicals at all. He called them "gruesome"?

 

 

Turnarounds

“These aren’t slow growers; these are no growers.” Lynch said turnaround companies are “battered, depressed and often can barely drag themselves into Chapter 11.” If they survive and fix their problems, however, they can rebound very quickly and stock prices are least related to the overall market. One of Lynch’s favorites in this category was Chrysler (now Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU)); it was also a cyclical stock, although that aspect was not as pronounced. From the time he bought in 1982, it became a five-bagger in two years and 15-bagger in five years. He found many opportunities among these temporary losers.

 these are no growers.

READ AGAIN, "THESE ARE NO GROWERS"? IN OTHER WORDS THESE ARE LITERALLY DEAD STOCKS

Lynch said turnaround companies are “battered, depressed and often can barely drag themselves into Chapter 11.

READ AGAIN, "TURNAROUND COMPANIES ARE "BATTERED, DEPRESSED AND BARELY KEEP THEMSELVES OUT OF BANKRUPTCY"!!

LOOKS GRUESOME INDEED?  

BUT SEE FURTHER

” If they survive and fix their problems, however, they can rebound very quickly and stock prices are least related to the overall market.

THESE STOCK PRICES ARE LEAST RELATED TO THE OVERALL MARKET.

SO THEY ARE THE ODD ONES OUT

READ MORE

One of Lynch’s favorites in this category was Chrysler (now Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU)); it was also a cyclical stock, although that aspect was not as pronounced. From the time he bought in 1982, it became a five-bagger in two years and 15-bagger in five years. He found many opportunities among these temporary losers.

HE BOUGHT CHRYSLER THE CYCLICAL STOCK AND MADE 5 BAGGARS & IN 5 YEARS HE MADE 15 BAGGARS OR 15 X (TIMES) OR 1,500%

IN HIS UNUSUAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL WAY PETER LYNCH HAS BEATEN EVEN WORLD CHAMPION SIFU WARREN BUFFET!

 

 

Asset Plays

This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.” Lynch said these are situations in which a local edge provides the greatest advantage. One example was the Pebble Beach golf course, once public but bought out for $72 million. A day after buying it, the new owner sold a gravel pit on the same property for $30 million. There were (and are) many hidden or not-so-hidden assets in many companies and industries; investors should start by looking for cash on the books.

 

THESE GROUP OF STOCKS ARE CALVIN'S FAVOURITES

This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.”

THERE ARE STOCKS IN BURSA WHICH CALVIN SEE DEEP DEEP VALUE BUT PEOPLE DON'T SEE LIKE I SEE

SO

KULIM WAS TAKEN PRIVATE

(THEY CONVERT OIL PALM PLANTATIONS TO THRIVING HOUSING ENCLAVES IN PENGERANG

 

THESTORE WAS TAKEN PRIVATE

THESTORE OWNS MANY VALUABLE PRIME LANDS STILL AT OLD BOOK VALUE

 

DAIMAN, WEIDA, TMAKMUR, AND NOW BOTH DEGEM & KBUNAI ALL TAKEN PRIVATE FOR THE SAME REASONS

I STILL HOLDING SOME OF THESE "DEAD" ASSET PLAY STOCKS

ONE OF THEM WAS PM CORP WHICH I HELD FOR 7 LONG YEARS BEFORE VALUE UNLOCKED BY CASH PAYOUT

NOW WHY I HAVE A NEW FOCUS NOW?

 

SINCE ASSET PLAYS TAKE A VERY VERY LONG TIME TO SEE ACTION I HAVE MOVED TO STOCKS WHICH ARE ASSET PLAY WITH JUST IN TIME CATALYST

ASSET PLAY WITH JUST IN TIME  CATALYST?

YES! FOR A STOCK TO MOVE THERE MUST BE A TRIGGER OR CATALYST

Let me Illustrate

In the 1990s I used to join a group of fishing enthusiasts and go fishing in Kenyir Dam

The Journey overnight to Kenyir Dam took all night. Arriving there in Kenyir Dam early morning we boarded a House Boat where we live & fish for the next 5 days and 4 nights

The Boat journey took another 5 long hours (Kenyir Dam Very Huge indeed) to reach our favouite fishing spot called Sungai Cacing

And then there were 3 small motorised sampan released from the Mother Boat which we travelled deeper to explore and find our secret fishing spot

ONE PLACE WAS SO DESERTED THAT THE SHIP CAPTAIN TOLD US

IF YOU GOT STRANDED HERE YOU WON'T SEE ANOTHER SOUL FOR THE NEXT ONE MONTH OR EVEN UP TO 3 MONTHS NO BODY WILL PASS THERE

See

 

IMAGINE IN YEAR 1990s being stranded there high and dry on one of those God forsaken hills?

NO ONE COME HERE IN 30 DAYS TO RESCUE YOU IF YOU GOT LOST?

AHA!

SO ARE MANY MANY ASSET PLAY STOCKS DEEPLY UNWANTED AND UNLOVED?

But to Calvin it is Ok.

If I got my Bible, good Christian Books & Good Investment Books I don't mind. I like the perfect solitude of this quiet place

I adapted and wrote part of this song

See

GOD’s SECRET PLACE

1.) I know a place where no one ever goes
There’s peace and quiet, beauty and repose
Hidden in the valley beside the mountain stream
And lying there beside the stream I find that I can dream
Only of things that’s beauty to the eyes
Snow peaked mountains that towering to the sky
Now I know that God made this world for me.
for me, for me.

 

2.) I can imagine the wonder of the scene.
Climbing a moutain and down the steep ravine.
The LORD invites you now why linger and delay
To make this place a heaven each and every day.
Oh how I wish I never have to leave
And all my life such beauty to receive.
Now I know that God made this world
for me, for me, for me.

 

3.) I know a fount where sins are washed away
I know a place where night is turned to day.
Under his shadow the safest place I know.
All that I am or have to Him I gladly serve.
Only one life ’twill soon be passed away
Only one chance I must not throw away
Now I know I must give this life to
Him. to Him, to Him.

 

4.) There will I rest for all eternity
Here with my might I serve the Almighty.
For the time will come when we no longer can serve.
Therefore give him your best and all that He deserves.

Eternal life and endless is its days
Eternal joy and full of glory there
now I know I must live this life
for Him. for Him. for Him.

-adapted by Calvin Tan

And this is the music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OxkntkX61E

Another nice one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8MQb2aTvC4

Only 4 chords very easy to play on guitar or piano

 

OK FEW, VERY VERY FEW PEOPLE WANTED TO BE STRANDED ON A TREASURE ISLAND LIKE ROBINSON CRUSOE?

SO CALVIN NOW LOOKS FOR

{{{ASSET PLAY WITH CATALYST}}}

FIRST ONE WAS CARIMIN

CALVIN CALLED FOR A BUY ON CARIMIN BECAUSE CALVIN SAW THE COMPLETION OF PENGERANG RAPID AND PETRONAS GOING TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN

SEE

Calvin called for a buy on Carimin on 26th Jan 2018

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/145533.jsp

BECAUSE OF BRENT CRUDE PRICE RISE AND PENGERANG RAPID IN COMPLETION

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 26, 2018 3:10 PM Report Abuse X

AND AT 42 SEN WITH SOLID NAV OF 67 SEN IT HAS A 38% DISCOUNT TO NTA

FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY

 

 Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 26, 2018 3:14 PM Report Abuse 

X

WITH THE REVIVAL OF BRENT CRUDE CROSSING USD71 A BARREL PETRONAS HAS AGAIN GIVEN FRESH JOB FOR CARIMIN. THIS CONTRACT WILL LAST FOR 5 YEARS

 

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 26, 2018 3:18 PM Report Abuse 

X

ALREADY IN THE BAG IS A WATER JOB AWARD FOR RM60 MILLIONS

THIS WILL SPLIT INTO 2 YEARS WHICH MEANS A REVENUE OF RM30 MILLIONS PER YEAR

AT 12% GROSS PROFIT CARIMIN EXPECTED TO GARNER RM3.6 MILLIONS FOR 2018 AND 2019

THIS ONE SINGLE CONTRACT ALREADY ENOUGH TO TILT THE ACCOUNTS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY

AND MANY MORE EXPECTED ON THE WAY AS PETRONAS RAPID WILL START OPERATION OFFICIALLY BY YEAR END 2018

RAPID HAS A CAPEX OF A WHOPPING RM170 BILLIONS IN 10 YEARS.. LONG JOB ORDERS EXPECTED FOR CARIMIN

 

SO LONG LONG BEFORE THE OIL AND GAS BULL RUN STARTED FOR YEAR 2019 CALVIN FORESAW THE RM170 BILLIONS RAPID WHICH WILL TRIGGER MORE OIL EXPLORATION WHEN REFINERY STARTS

THE REST IS NOW HISTORY AND WE ARE NOW IN A MATURED BULL MARKET IN O&G STOCKS

 

As John Templeton said

 

BULL MARKET MATURED ON OPTIMISM

 

 

Image result for bull market born in pessimism john templeton quote

 

AS O&G BULL MARKET MATURING ON OPTIMISM (IT STARTED IN PESSIMISM)

 

CALVIN NOW LOOK FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF ANOTHER NEW BULL MARKET

IT RELATED STOCKS THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM PH GOVT RM21.6 BILLIONS CASH CATALYST FOR THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

SOME ARE AT EMBRYONIC STAGE WHILE GREEN PACKET HAS BEEN CHASED UP SOMEWHAT BY SINGAPORE FUND

See

 

Singapore-based Kendall Court emerges as Green Packet's substantial shareholder

NST Business - 

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Singapore-based Kendall Court has bought 65 million shares in Green Packet Bhd via a direct business deal at 70 sen per share.

As a result, the private equity firm, which managed over US$600 million portfolio, emerged as a substantial shareholder of Green Packet with a 7.1 per cent stake.

Kendall Court is an investment firm that manages equity-linked and mezzanine investments across Southeast Asia.

It has invested into the natural resource, healthcare, consumer and telecom industries over the past decade.

Kendall Court founder Chris Chia said the firm had previously made a successful investment in Green Packet’s telecommunications subsidiary, Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, which is today under Telekom Malaysia Bhd.

“The first time around was just a capital investment. This time, we look forward to contributing our knowledge and experience particularly in Asean,” he said in a statement.

Kendall Court’s previous investment into the telecommunication company amounted to US$51 million.

“We have been monitoring the company’s progress and see prospects in their new ventures, especially its fintech business,” Chia added.

 

SO ALL THE SIGNS OF A NEW BULL MARKET IS GETTING MORE AND MORE VISIBLE BY THE DAY

AND IN OCT 11TH THE PH GOVT WILL LAUNCH ITS BUDGET DAY SPEECH WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON

 

"THE DIGITAL ECONOMY"

 

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy/sell after doing your own due diligence

 

Note: Calvin is neutral on GPacket & has no position in it currently

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upward and downward mobility

As well as being able to occupy more than one category at a time, Lynch wanted to remind us that companies move in and out of categories quite readily. For example, high-flying growth stocks often run out of room and become sluggards or stalwarts

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 46 of 46 comments

teoct

Mr Tan,

Thank you for sharing and I agree with the sharing of investment ideas.

So maybe less of god please, thank you.

Have a blessed weekend nonetheless.

2019-09-29 11:06

stockraider

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-29 11:10

stockraider

In investment it is always better look forward on armada, if u keep looking back at the past u will be obviously missing great investing opportunity on armada loh...!!

1. Armada already undergo vast impairment & writedown to conservatively clean up their books.
It has brought down its high borrowing from Rm 16 billion to rm 10.4 billion and the trend u can see is obvious qtr reduction in borrowing loh....!!

2. Most importantly the latest qtr profit and revenue easily exceed yinson a rm 7 billion mkt cap company by about double, a great sign of sharp improvement trend loh...!!

3. As for sustainability armada has rm 20 billion order books another very positive sign for the company loh...!!

4.Bottom line, just focus on Armada's performance over the last two quarters you will see that it's on the upwards trends.
Orderbook remains steady at RM20.2b (FPO: RM19.1bn, OMS: RM1.1bn) another RM10.3bn worth of potential extension. This will sustain the group’s revenue for the next few years.

For Potential upside, please see mikekim comments earlier...
It will get even better in 2H2019 with 4 key upsides:

1) Claire US$285m compensation
2) Kraken ~US$280m partial/full write back
3) Kraken debt restructure to LT
4) Net profit growth

Hence. we can expect better result in next quarter.

5.Moving forward, Global FPSO Market is expected to grow USD+ 30 Billion by 2025.

Top Key Players:
BP, Petronas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Petrobras, Bumi Armada Berhad, SBM Offshore, BW Offshore, MODEC, Bluewater Energy Services B.V., Aker Solutions ASA, Yinson Holdings Berhad, Teekay Corporation, among others.

Armada Value Proposition
1. A Top 5 FPSO operator in the world by fleet size. Operating presence in Asia, Africa and Europe. T&I and OSV (lossmaking) are complementary businesses.
2. Unlike OSV and T&I operations, FPSO’s contracts are more bankable, providing steady visibility (long-term charters, termination protection) with reasonable project IRRs.
3. FPSOs tender pipeline is strong. Winning a job is a catalyst.

Latest Valuation for Armada
Operations (MMYR) Details
- TGT1 (Vietnam) 835, NPV (6-year extension), 5.6% WACC
- D1 (India) - 50% 266 NPV (firm); 5.6% WACC
- C7 (India) - 50% 266 NPV (firm); 5.6% WACC
- Kraken - 100% 1,470 NPV (firm); 7.0% WACC
- Olombendo - 100% 4,831 NPV (firm); 5.8% WACC
- Madura (Indonesia) - 50% 385 NPV (firm); 5.8% WACC
- Malta FSU 609 NPV (firm); 5.8% WACC
- Kakinada – 30% 486 NPV (firm); 7.0% WACC

FPSO 9,146,000,000

It a very SOLID Company and we should be proud to be part of this success story...

2019-09-29 11:14

Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020

If armada can survive from its bone cancer

Armada shall survive any weather storm in the future
Of course, the glory days shall be on the right path again.

2019-09-29 12:02

FamousAmos

Yes the purpose of this forum is to discuss investment. Not your silly gospel.

2019-09-29 15:39

samyew1234

how is destini now? calvin

2019-09-29 16:23

calvintaneng

Good afternoon to all who visit here,

Teoct

Thank you.

Sifu Stockraider,

I see your Armada has confounded 3iii who cannot understand turnaround

Venfx & FamousAmos

Both of you should meet up as friends
Our lives here are so short compared to eternity

David,

Yes, of course it is a noble intention to buy low. And also tell all to buy while low. Buy good stocks that have potential to go up so that all will benefit together
like buying carimin at 39 sen, naim at 50 sen at scomies at 7.5 sen


Samyew,

I see 2 things in destini. It has jobs but need liquidity so it is giving out Rights Issue to raise capital. Some are selling. But the Boss is buying. Now if you have deep pocket can average down slowly buy spaced out buying

See, when I called for a buy on carimin on 26th Jan 2018 at 39 sen it even dropped to a low of 21.5 sen. But longer term now Carimin has rebounded above Rm1.00

For destini must wait for ecrl roll out, aerospace fresh jobs & also petronas to give out OGSE support second liners. All these take time. I think better just hold destini first in back burner and concentrate on THE DIGITAL ECONOMY stocks for now

2019-09-29 17:04

calvintaneng

Cyclicals (Peter Lynch)

“A cyclical is a company whose sales and profits rise and fall in regular if not completely predictable fashion.” In contrast to fast growers, cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries. Cyclical stocks do well as economies come out of recession and begin to expand.You can, however, also lose half your investment if you buy in the wrong part of the cycle. Lynch calls them the “most misunderstood” type of stocks. As large and well-known companies, they are often confused with stalwarts. People who work in cyclical industries have an edge over other investors.

READ AGAIN

cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries

CYCLICALS EXPAND AND CONTRACT (ALMOST CONTINUALLY) THAT MEANS THAT PRICES GO UP AND ALSO GO DOWN AGAIN VERY FAST

Examples of Cyclicals

1) Mooncake sales spiked up in the Chinese Calendar of August 15th Once every year

2) Durian sales in season Twice every year. There is no business in between as no durian to sell (SO DURIAN SALE CAN BE CONSIDERED CYCLICAL)

3) Long Steel like Masteel, SSteel, Annjoo & Lionind crashed when PH Govt called off High speed rail, Ecrl, Mrt 3. Pan Borneo and other infrar jobs on winning

So if Ecrl, Hsr & Other infrar jobs are restarted Long Steel will rebound

4) In Year 2014 Crude OIl Prices crashed to a low of USD27.00 & below production cost of Petronas. So no O&G jobs were given. All O&G Stocks suffered together.
Those that borrowed too much sunk under water and gone bankrupt like Ezra & Swibor in Singapore. In Malaysia O&G stocks like daya, perisai, thheavy, sumatech, alam maritin, barakah & others crashed below 10 sen

In year 2018 Petronas gave jobs to Carimin (BRENT REBOUNDED TO USD71.00) & other OGSE like Dayang/Naim, Penergy & Deleum & these later gone into Bull run time

SO THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BRENT CRUDE PRICE & CAPEX FROM PETRONAS

LOW CRUDE PRICE (USD27) BELOW PETRONAS PRODUCTION COST = PETRONAS CUT CAPEX = OG SUFFERS
ALL THROUGH YEARS OF 2014 TO EARLY 2019 (5 YEARS OF DEARTH FOR OGSE)

HIGH CRUDE PRICE OVER USD71 PETRONAS MAKING GOOD MONIES = LOTS OF FRESH JOBS = OGSE (1ST TIER STOCKS) MOVE UP FIRST (AND GO INTO BULL RUN TIME)

THIS IS HOW CYCLICAL UNFOLDS BEFORE OUR EYES

2019-09-29 18:42

3iii

The problem is calvin recommended many stocks.
Some did well and he highlighted this frequently.
Those not doing well were no longer highlighted.
He is not objective or rational.
Philip has collected all his recommendations of 2019.
The outcome was a far cry from calvin's claim.
Be careful. For every 3 recommendations by calvin: 1 did well, 2 lost money.

2019-09-29 22:41

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-29 22:48

calvintaneng

Asset Plays (Peter Lynch)

This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.” Lynch said these are situations in which a local edge provides the greatest advantage. One example was the Pebble Beach golf course, once public but bought out for $72 million. A day after buying it, the new owner sold a gravel pit on the same property for $30 million. There were (and are) many hidden or not-so-hidden assets in many companies and industries; investors should start by looking for cash on the books.



THESE GROUP OF STOCKS ARE CALVIN'S FAVOURITES

This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.”

THERE ARE STOCKS IN BURSA WHICH CALVIN SEE DEEP DEEP VALUE BUT PEOPLE DON'T SEE LIKE I SEE

SO

KULIM WAS TAKEN PRIVATE

(THEY CONVERT OIL PALM PLANTATIONS TO THRIVING HOUSING ENCLAVES IN PENGERANG



THESTORE WAS TAKEN PRIVATE

THESTORE OWNS MANY VALUABLE PRIME LANDS STILL AT OLD BOOK VALUE



DAIMAN, WEIDA, TMAKMUR, AND NOW BOTH DEGEM & KBUNAI ALL TAKEN PRIVATE FOR THE SAME REASONS

I STILL HOLDING SOME OF THESE "DEAD" ASSET PLAY STOCKS

ONE OF THEM WAS PM CORP WHICH I HELD FOR 7 LONG YEARS BEFORE VALUE UNLOCKED BY CASH PAYOUT

Now critics have made judgement on Calvin buy call on all 6 category of stocks

1) You can keep stalwarts buy not cyclical or turnaround or asset play

For these you should buy when prices are cheap and out of favour. You don't keep them for ever.

You buy low and prices are up you take profit


2) Some asset play take years to see value unlocked

Take Kbunai for example

Go see kbunai tread and scroll back to Calvin buy call at 6 sen.https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3115.jsp

After issuing buy call at 6 sen Kbunai even dropped to 4.5 sen

So? Cry father and cry mother?

Then Kbunai now offered for privatisation at 11 sen for an 83.3% gain in 3 years
Divided by 3 Kbunai gives a yearly yield of 27.7% (3 years = 83.3%)

SO THOSE WHO INVEST MUST KNOW

TIMING IS IMPORTANT FOR CYCLICAL

HOLDING POWER MUST BE PRESENT FOR ASSET PLAY STOCK WITH DEEP UNDERVALUATION

AND FOR TURNAROUND LIKE

OIL & GAS - THE RISE OF BRENT CRUDE WHICH TRIGGERED PETRONAS FRESH CAPEX SPENDING

IT RELATED STOCKS - PH GOVT FRESH ALLOCATION FOR "THE DIGITAL ECONOMY" WORTH RM21.6 BILLIONS WHICH IS YET AHEAD!

YES!!!

THE CATALYST FOR THESE STOCKS TO TURNAROUND = OPCOM, NETX, REDTONE, GPACKET & OCK WILL BE THE CASH INFUSION FOR NFCP FOR "THE DIGITAL ECONOMY" VERY SOON

2019-09-29 23:05

DreamKentut

TOTAL GARBAGE. CUT AND PASTE ARTICLE.
Insects do not harbour criminal tendency of cheating and swindling others' money.

2019-09-29 23:13

calvintaneng

Precisely naysayers appeared

SEE

I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.

And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.

2019-09-29 23:17

3iii

Peter Lynch was a great fund manager. He grew the Magellan fund by CAGR of 33% for 13 years while he was managing it.

Surprisingly, the majority of the investors in his Magellan fund actually lost money. That was because these investors got into his fund when the market was hot and exited the fund when the market was down. Only those who remained long term in his fund benefited the most from the skill of Peter Lynch.

Yes, Peter Lynch has written a very good book on investing: One up Wall Street. He also has published 2 others too. His book is essential reading. In fact, you can use his philosophy to enrich your investing.

He classifies the companies into Growth companies: Fast Growers, Stalwarts and Slow Growers; and others: Cyclicals, Asset Plays and Turnarounds. I believe he made most of his money for his fund in the fast growers. Stay focus on these companies and you will do very well. It is from these fast growers that Peter Lynch have his multi-baggers gains. Make sure you put meaningful amounts of money into these companies.

Cyclicals are difficult for the average investors, unless you have a deep knowledge of the particular industry. Asset plays are sometime obvious and yet there was lack of catalyst and if held for too long, can be value traps. Turnarounds are great to have when it did turn, but the truth is most turnarounds do not turn or turn only very slowly.

Be smart. Learn from Peter Lynch. He has shared very clearly and transparently. Know his philosophy. Marry this with a bit of Graham, Buffett and Philip Fisher, and develop a powerful philosophy to grow your investment portfolio in the stock market.

For the new investors and even the seasoned investors: It is smarter to buy great company at a good price than to buy a good company at great prices. Avoid gruesome company at any price.

2019-09-29 23:25

calvintaneng

Ok Ok

Since in an open forum some get cynical

Calvin would like to invite genuine and sincere investors/trader to

Whataspp me at 014 6101668

Please state

Name:

From where:

Your occupation (optional)

My next post on THE DIGITAL ECONOMY STOCK write-up

All are welcome and this information is free of charge.

2019-09-29 23:28

3iii

>>>
Posted by DreamKentut > Sep 29, 2019 11:13 PM | Report Abuse

TOTAL GARBAGE. CUT AND PASTE ARTICLE.
Insects do not harbour criminal tendency of cheating and swindling others' money.
>>>


In my investing, my gains are from the companies growing its intrinsic values over many years.

I have never hoped to make profit from Selling to Suckers, which is so important to so many promoters who recommended so many stocks every days, weeks or months.

2019-09-29 23:31

calvintaneng

Another "Asset Play" focus was Disney World which Peter Lynch saw

People who visited Disney Land stayed in the expensive Hotels nearby

Peter Lynch saw the HUGE LAND potential in DisneyLand compound which could also be constructed into Hotel Resort to capture the rental market & he was correct

That was how his observation into ASSET VALUE that made his Magellan Fund Superb

2019-09-29 23:37

calvintaneng

When Peter Lynch was in Europe he visited the Volvo Factory & asked to see the Account Books of Volvo. The Bosses in Volvo were hilarious why he bothered to know and showed him all the details

Peter saw to his great delight that THE NET CASH VALUE of VOLVO is already the share price. All the rest is free. On returning to the US Peter bought Huge Chunks of Volvo shares

In Malaysia I heard sifu Tan Chong Khay of Pheim visits 600 companies every year just like Phil Fisher

2019-09-29 23:41

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-29 23:45

Jason Toshi Ho

I totally agree on calvin tan johor sifu mentality. I find myself posting less and less as I realized most investors are gamblers and traders and whisperers. In fact majority have no portfolio or a record of long term returns and simply post, lose money and disappear from the forum.

But one thing we do have to admit, if calvintaneng really was a simple promoter, he would have long ago loss all his major funds and dissipated from the forum.

So we have a few deductions:
1) either Calvin tan makes some money from his incessant promotions of stocks ( enough that he stays on the forum, but not enough that he can retire properly and enjoy Holland life like his johor sifu)
2) Calvin tan doesn't make money, but neither does he loses it, because his hobby is to report on stock promotion, and not to act heavily on it. he knows his long term track record overall.
3) His real income is from other business. This is due to the sheer number of promotions and the impossibility to deploy enough funds on each one to make a difference.

In either case I hope he continues to post his promotional material as it saves me time delving through bursa stocks, and it is faster for me to plot through rubbish to find veins of gold sometimes.

Long live the Promoter! (and like calvin says, do your own due diligence, and dont just see and dumb dumb buy)

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 29, 2019 11:17 PM | Report Abuse

Precisely naysayers appeared

SEE

I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.

And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.

2019-09-29 23:45

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-29 23:46

calvintaneng

Because Peter Lynch worked relentlessly to find 6 category of stocks his style of investing differs from Warren Beffet

While Warren Buffet held on to 30 or more stocks Peter Lynch had bought and sold over 2,000 types of stocks in the Dow & Nasdaq

Out of these 2,000 many Cyclicals he bought and sold more than 3 to 4 rounds in their Cycles

For Malaysian Context I have bought Masteel & Prestar for years 2006/7 and made up to 50%. This round for years 2017 Feb Calvin called for a buy on masteel at 66 sen and told all to sell above Rm1.30 when price doubled See http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/list-of-companies/plc-profile.html?stock_code=5098

ALL THESE AND MORE WERE TAUGHT BY SIFU PETER LYNCH

2019-09-29 23:48

calvintaneng

Because Peter Lynch worked relentlessly to find 6 category of stocks his style of investing differs from Warren Buffet

While Warren Buffet held on to 30 or more stocks Peter Lynch had bought and sold over 2,000 types of stocks in the Dow & Nasdaq

Out of these 2,000 many Cyclicals he bought and sold more than 3 to 4 rounds in their Cycles

For Malaysian Context I have bought Masteel & Prestar for years 2006/7 and made up to 50%. This round for years 2017 Feb Calvin called for a buy on masteel at 66 sen and told all to sell above Rm1.30 when price doubled

ALL THESE AND MORE WERE TAUGHT BY SIFU PETER LYNCH

2019-09-29 23:50

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-29 23:55

calvintaneng

Jason Toshi Ho as for your kps,

you promoted at 1.55 25 april 2019. you received bonus of 46 sen. but share price today is 0.685. meaning you have lost 0.405 on this trade (26% loss). since you didn't give a sell call, I expect that you are still holding on to this unrealized 26% loss. Even more so if you reinvested your dividends into buying more kps stocks (we will never know how you think).

So what is your total return of all the stocks with all the returns? the keyword here is volume and total invested value.
27/09/2019 2:30 PM


CALVIN REPLIES

FOR KPS

AFTER IT RECEIVED A CASH WINDFALL BONANZA CALVIN KNEW INSTINTIVELY THAT KPS WILL FOLLOW PUNCAK EXAMPLE TO GIVE OUT CASH PAYOUT

SO I LOADED UP A WHOLE CHUNKS OF KPS BEFORE CASH PAYOUT OF 42.6 SEN WAS ANNOUNCED

EVEN WHEN I PROMOTED IT THE MARKET PRICE FOR KPS CORRECTED FURTHER

SO THERE WAS STRICTLY NO PUMP AND DUMP AT ALL

IT WAS AFTER THE "CASH PAYOUT WAS ANNOUNCED" THAT MR. MARKET CHASED IT UP TO NEAR RM1.70

OF COURSE I SOLD ENOUGH TO GET BACK MY ORIGINAL CAPITAL

MY REMAINING KPS SHARES ARE THEN FREE LIKE MANY OTHERS "FREE"

MY LONGEST HOLDING FREE SHARES ARE UMW WHICH I BOUGHT IN YEAR 2004 (15 YEARS) STILL HOLDING FREE UMW SHARES FOR LIFE

AND THIS SECRET WAS TAUGHT TO ME BY MY JOHOR SIFU

WHEN YOU SEE A VALUE SHARE SOLD DOWN TO BARGAIN PRICE

GO BUY X Stock for 30,000 SHARES (Just an example: could be 300,000 or 3 million shares if you want)

Then if the X Stock doubled up 100% then sell 15,000 shares first to get back original capital. The rest of the 15,000 shares will be Free For Life

BETTER STILL IF THEY GIVE DIVIDENDS

THEN YOU WILL GET FREE MONIES FOR LIFE

This secret has been with me for the last 10 years already

BIG "THANK YOU" YO JOHOR SIFU
30/09/2019 12:02 AM

2019-09-30 00:03

DreamKentut

LOL, THE BEST CONMAN IDENTIFIED.

2019-09-30 00:12

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-30 00:19

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-30 12:00

calvintaneng

Good morning all

All through the horrible months of May to early August 2019 Calvin saw 3IB (Investment banks) downgrading Uzma to as low as 55 sen

AND Kwap was also selling and selling. So everyone was panic stricken and letting go of Uzma

That was where Calvin turned most bullish

As Sifu Warren Buffet said we must be greedy when others are fearfully selling

May quarter results for ogse entities were no good due to monsoon

BUT by August 2019 results turned better (April to June) due to excellent weather and Uzma decommissioning jobs in the open sea was calm and jobs swiftly done

So Uzma rebounded by more than 50% from its 55 sen low to above 90 sen

Now that Uzma is up and fairly valued Calvin no longer shout buy call like before

Remember the words of John Templeton

Pessimism = Seed of bull market starts

Skepticism = Bull rise up while people doubt

Optimism = Matured bull. Now stable. This is the state of Uzma now.

Death of bull = euphoria (the last hurrah)

2019-09-30 12:14

calvintaneng

So to win we must buy during pessimism and sell into euphoria


This is only applicable to cyclical stocks but also can be applied to all types of stocks in general

2019-09-30 12:17

calvintaneng

The bull run theme stocks of 2019 were OGSE stocks like carimin, Dayang, Penergy, Uzma and deleum due to Petronas Rapid refinery in completion and rm30 billions upstream capex

For year 2020 the Bull Theme surrounds THE DIGITAL ECONOMY stocks of

Opcom
Netx
Redtone
Gpacket
Ock

Of the above 5 Calvin top picks are Opcom, NETX and Redtone

2019-09-30 12:25

calvintaneng

David

Calvin added more Talam at 3.5 sen on weakness

Last time I called for a buy on Kbunai at 6 sen

After issuing buy call Kbunai dropped half sen to 5.5 sen and so many cry father cry mother

If kbunai was cheap at 6 sen then anything lower just buy more

See those who dared to buy kbunai at 5.5 sen are getting a 100% gain as it is now being taken private for 11 sen

See
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3115.jsp

Muk02023

You already sold out your scomies too early
Now you also cry father cry mother because Scomies prices have gone up?

TELL YOU GUYS WHAT TO DO NOW

IF YOU MISSED SCOMIES ON THE CHEAP NOW YOU MUST NOT MISS

"THE DIGITAL ECONOMY" BULL RUN STOCKS WHICH IS ABOUT TO RUN

ONCE RUN UP?

THEN CRY FATHER CRY MOTHER ALSO NO USE !!

2019-09-30 13:17

3iii

Post removed.Why?

2019-09-30 16:19

calvintaneng

Hahaha!!

Already added Talam more at 3.5 sen

Will be even more happy to add more Talam on weakness

Last time Calvin called for a buy on kbunai at 6 sen

Then kbunai dropped to 5.5 sen.
For one sen down they cry father cry mother

Now k bunai = Kaboom bunai

Up 100% to 11 sen privatisation

For 3 years 100% gain means 33.3%

At 33.3% annual gain even beats sifu Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet at 25%

2019-09-30 16:24

apolloang

butaland no taken private yet after more than 3 years u talk about? hahaha

2019-09-30 16:25

3iii

>>>


calvintaneng Hahaha!!

Already added Talam more at 3.5 sen

Will be even more happy to add more Talam on weakness

Last time Calvin called for a buy on kbunai at 6 sen

Then kbunai dropped to 5.5 sen.
For one sen down they cry father cry mother

Now k bunai = Kaboom bunai

Up 100% to 11 sen privatisation

For 3 years 100% gain means 33.3%

At 33.3% annual gain even beats sifu Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet at 25%
30/09/2019 4:24 PM

>>>


The truth is calvin was not in the stock when the prices returned.

2019-09-30 16:29

leno

My purpose in i3 Forum is to bring down another forum who try to con people ... namely investlah forum. My mission is done and completed with flying colour. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAH .... INSAS CANTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKK !!!

2019-09-30 16:54

calvintaneng

Leno is smart

Clap
Clap
Clap!!

2019-09-30 16:57

calvintaneng

Leno is correct

Investlah and 3iii were hand in hand for their destruction

Long live i3 investors forum

I3 forum admin must be vigilant guarding against this good for nothing 3iii who has no relevancy for the present time

He lived in the past, invest in the past. All who followed him have turned into fossils

2019-09-30 16:59

leno

bringing down investlah forum is very easy onli ... simply stop visiting the useless forum, and come to i3 forum every day .... MUAHAHAHAHAHAH ... INSAS CANTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK !!!

2019-09-30 17:07

ahbah

Daya last done at half sen only, lowest possible price. Max. loss is only half sen or 100% loss but potential upside is .......... ?

2019-09-30 17:12

calvintaneng

Hahaha!

Leno is correct!

Ahbah has come!!

Ahbah ahbah jangan jadi apa later?

Days the buaya gonna be buried later. Don't touch this lapsap. It has no margin of safety at all

Now that you are here for once please go buy these 3 books

1. The Intelligent investor by Warren Buffet
2. One up on walk street. Peter Lunch
3. Beating the street. Peter Lunch

After reading them very very very carefully then only invest hor?

You will enough nasi berani and kadi kandar for a life time (forget your cheap rm1.50 nasi lemak please)

2019-09-30 17:29

calvintaneng

Aiyah my smart phone auto switched daya to days and nasi to kadi.

Ok remember Netx is far better than daya the buaya

2019-09-30 17:31

calvintaneng

Wahaha

This post has 3888 page views by now

How auspicious number

Calvin say thank you to all who visit here

Please learn to separate facts from fiction

Separate truth from hearsay

Believe with your own eyes all the facts and figures presented transparently. Not with light and itchy ears listening to passing rumour or hearsay

Why?

Because the truth. Nothing but the truth shall ultimately prevail

2019-09-30 17:56

Mabel

Good article calvin!

I'm impressed with your passion.

Keep it up !

Cheers!

2019-10-01 11:45

calvintaneng

Religion?

I also don't like religion at all

For me it is a real live experience

AND God is more real to me than anyone else or anything on planet earth

2019-10-01 12:17

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