In January 2020 Supermax was traded at a low of Rm1.29
When Covid 19 was declared as a pandemic on March 11 2020 Supermax even fell to the low of Rm1.30 (March 17 2020)
On March 17th 2020 Malaysia announced it will close its borders with Singapore by mid night 2020 March 17th
That was my last day in Iskandar. When Donald Trump announced his closing of USA to European tourists the entire world market collapsed
Many lost more than 30% to 50% who invested in the Stock market then as all Prices fell like Tent pins
While everyone now in great panic I knew instinctively this is the time to buy when there is blood on the street (even seeing blood in my portfolio)
But buy what?
As I was musing I saw this article posted on April 11 2020
See
Koon Yew Yin 11 April 2020
Investors are rushing to buy glove companies’ shares because they believe the demand for gloves is more than supply due to the Covid 19 pandemic fear.
All the glove companies’ share prices are shooting up like rocket as shown on their price charts below. If you had bought glove companies’ shares about 3 months ago, you should be laughing to your bank.
Based on the latest audited accounts, Hatalega is selling at P/E 62, Top Glove is selling at P/E 45, Kossan is selling at P/E 30, Suppermax is selling at P/E 22, Rubberex is selling at P/E 18 and Comfort is selling at P/E 15.
P/E ratio is the share price divided by its earning per share. For example, Hatalega is selling at P/E 62 means that if Hatalega were to give all its earning to shareholders, an investor would take 62 years to recover all his capital, assuming its EPS is the same for 62 years. Of cause the company’s earnings will fluctuate up and down over the years.
My sole purpose of writing this piece is not to recommend you to buy or sell your glove companies’ shares. I just want you to understand the risk of buying shares with high P/E ratio.
That's it. But April 11 2020 was on a Saturday
So I did careful research
Looking at 3 Stocks
Supermax. This one I bought many rounds always from Rm1.50 then up 100% to Rm3.00 and split by one for one bonus
Supermax opened for trading on Monday 13th April 2020 & i promptly bought at Rm1.73
Comfort was 88.5 and I bought some.
Rubberex was 83 sen. This one I missed while still doubting its losses & partly it was not fully 100% into medical gloves.
Rubberex prices ran away upward while I hesitated. So missed it! Never mind. At least caught 2 fishes out of three (so to say)
Now I missed buying Supermax in march 2020 when it even dropped to Rm1.30 lowest. Of course there was no clarity then
So it is alright to pay Rm1.73 as the Supermax best days are yet ahead
Buy I had very low expectation then when I posted in i3 forum
I told all about Supermax history: history tells us Supermax goes up from Rm1.50 to Rm3.00 and then can expect bonus one for one and price will then split back to Rm1.50
So I thought i was quite clever to make the same deduction and told them to sell Supermax at Rm3.00
Their response was totally against me. Why? Everyone expected Supermax to shoot higher
It took weeks before Supermax finally near Rm3.00. So I told fellow forumers that I have raised the target price of Supermax to Rm4.00. Again I met with cold reception. It took only a short time for Supermax to rise and rise near Rm3.80 & I finally said Supermax target price should be raised to Rm5.00 or higher?
Only then every one was appeased. Of course they were doubters and mischievious fella like Mikecyc who came to "kacau"
Supermax people called him "Mickey Mouse" who appeared to "entertain"
Everyone was so bullish
Then one day in April 2020 SUPERMAX DID A SHARE BUY BACK AND GAVE THIS SIGNAL
See
Immediate Announcement on Shares Buy Back
SUPERMAX CORPORATION BERHAD
Date of buy back
30 Apr 2020
Description of shares purchased
Ordinary Shares
Currency
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Total number of shares purchased (units)
2,888,000
Minimum price paid for each share purchased ($$)
2.420
Maximum price paid for each share purchased ($$)
2.480
Total consideration paid ($$)
7,093,885.47
Number of shares purchased retained in treasury (units)
2,888,000
Number of shares purchased which are proposed to be cancelled (units)
0
Cumulative net outstanding treasury shares as at to-date (units)
68,888,000
Adjusted issued capital after cancellation
(no. of shares) (units)
1,360,309,760
Total number of shares purchased and/or held as treasury shares against total number of issued shares of the listed issuer (%)
5.06414
Remarks :
Total number of issued shares is 1,360,309,760 ordinary shares. The Company had not cancelled any treasury shares.
Announcement Info
Company Name
SUPERMAX CORPORATION BERHAD
Stock Name
SUPERMX
Date Announced
30 Apr 2020
Category
Immediate Announcement on Shares Buy Back
Reference Number
SB1-30042020-00002
And on April 30th Supermax closing price opened at Rm2.38 and ended up 10 sen to close at Rm2.48
See
Number of shares purchased retained in treasury (units)
2,888,000
Cumulative net outstanding treasury shares as at to-date (units)
68,888,000
Ok let us go back in time to April 30th 2020 to see this actual posted comment below
BONUS ISSUE OF 13,333,333 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH ("BONUS SHARES") IN THE COMPANY ON THE BASIS OF ONE(1) BONUS SHARE FOR EVERY THREE(3) EXISTING ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH HELD ("BONUS ISSUE")
Bonus issue of 340,077,440 new ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Supermax Corporation Berhad ("Supermax") ("Supermax Share(s)") ("Bonus Share(s)") to be credited as fully paid-up on the basis of one (1) Bonus Share for every one (1) existing Supermax Share held at 5.00 p.m. on 30 January 2012 ("Bonus Issue")
Amount
1 : 1
Ex Date
26-Jan-2012
Entitlement Date
30-Jan-2012
AND WE HIT BULLS EYE
After posting this On July 2nd 2020
One month later Supermax Announced Bonus Issue below
Bonus issue of up to 1,360,309,760 new ordinary shares in Supermax Corporation Berhad ("Supermax") ("Supermax Share(s)") ("Bonus Share(s)") on the basis of 1 Bonus Share for every 1 existing Supermax Share
Amount
1.0000 : 1.0000
Ex Date
04-Sep-2020
Entitlement Date
07-Sep-2020
Payment Date
FROM THEN SUPERMAX TURNED SUPER SONIC AND POWERED UP TO RM24.44
Of course we stayed the course until prices hit the roof & then retraced
SOLD ALL SUPERMAX AT RM18.00 AFTER BONUS (TOTAL IS RM9.00 x 2)
From Rm1.73 to Rm18.00 is 1,000% Upside
Thank you for reading
BEST AND WARMEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Coming up next article
WHY GLOVES WILL FACE HUGE COMING GLUT THAT WILL DEVASTATE YOU IF YOU DON'T RUN
Stay tuned...
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This article frightened me so much that i sold 90 careplus at 2.71,40 hlt @ 1.19, 10 rubberex @1.37,6adventa @ 2.05, 3super@5.80 & 1 tg@ 5.57 yesterday,
Posted by gohkimhock > May 1, 2021 4:12 PM | Report Abuse
@calvintaneng I believe I am an eagle. uncle KYY might be an eagle too if his writings are sincere. So are you. Now only left those glove fanatics will be chickens, a few might be crows or pigeons whereby able to protect their capital .
The most simple that I always asked, when was the last time you ever wear a pair of medical gloves? I believe you wear condoms more than gloves...
********
So, does that mean that everybody on the planet must use a certain product, for the manufacturer of that product to be successful?
Nope. Not necessarily. Not at all, man.
Not everybody in the world drinks coca cola, but coca cola is still a very successful company.
Same thing with a glove company like TopGlove or Hartalega
I remembered 25 years ago , there were only coffee beans and Starbucks.After that more and more franchise cafes are selling coffees . There are oversupply of coffees but I did not see the prices of Starbuck and Coffee Beans coffee coming down. WHY ? The population of Malaysia is not even doubled but the number of cafes had grown leap and bound. Does.coffee ASP came down ? No. I only know that old town coffee increased the price to more than double when more and more outlets were opened.
I don't think we can use Shopee and Lazada prices as reference as the discounts or cash backs sometimes are absorbed by Shopee or Lazada as part of their marketing expenses. Majority of sales are not from end users as they are from distributors and the distributors will not be buying from Shopee or Lazada but direct from manufacturers.
Since Gloves are minting Billionaires there are now Many Many Players
See this
"Suddenly, tomatoes became an attractive commodity to plant and, at one time, there were between 300 and 400 farmers planting tomatoes," he said here yesterday.
When Tomato prices Exploded Up in Prices Years ago between 300 and 400 farmers planting tomatoes
If we are to change the phrase "between 300 and 400 New Big Glove Companies like Top Glove appear" then how?
My sifu told me in economics...if u keep the product prices too high & u continue make super profit....eventually u attract many many more players & competitors...and this will cause the ASP to drop very fast...and eventually it will cause a huge gluts in the industry as all the players are unable to stop or reduce production, bcos of committed fixed or sunked cost loh!
Thus longer run business prospect will be a disaster...they will be shake out loh!
Gloves is really a commodity mah!
The situation for Gloves will be worse than tomato bcos in the case of tomato the farmers can destroyed and bury their excess tomato & use it as fertiliser and the tomato price is impacted for 1 session but in the case of Gloves the financial impact will be great bcos they have invested millions & billions on plant & machinery if they sell as scraps they will lose millions to billions mah!
Thus they stay for long haul & destroyed each other over a longer time, thus prolonging the suffering loh!
Posted by calvintaneng > May 1, 2021 11:21 PM | Report Abuse
The gist of the message is this
Since Gloves are minting Billionaires there are now Many Many Players
See this
"Suddenly, tomatoes became an attractive commodity to plant and, at one time, there were between 300 and 400 farmers planting tomatoes," he said here yesterday.
When Tomato prices Exploded Up in Prices Years ago between 300 and 400 farmers planting tomatoes
If we are to change the phrase "between 300 and 400 New Big Glove Companies like Top Glove appear" then how?
Posted by Agjl > May 1, 2021 8:48 PM | Report Abuse
@Tantoro- Stockraider, your sifu must be so hai lou that he didn't tell you that the top 4 glove maker are cash rich , their new expansion capacity are 0 loan and fully automation, any over supply or glove gluts can easily switch off by pressing the button switch off so no issue or extra cost Extra cash can put in banks for interest return Bottom line the top 4 still profitable with or without convid after years of bombastic PAT Dog like you where got brain only human like us got You must be stu xpid ity to the max
stockraider My sifu told me in economics...if u keep the product prices too high & u continue make super profit....eventually u attract many many more players & competitors...and this will cause the ASP to drop very fast...and eventually it will cause a huge gluts in the industry as all the players are unable to stop or reduce production, bcos of committed fixed or sunked cost loh!
Thus longer run business prospect will be a disaster...they will be shake out loh!
01/05/2021 2:40 PM
Hi bro, ask him what happen to his Insas...??? So undervalued that he keep posting long pages.. What is insas price now bro stockraider??? Wakakakak
If they really believing what they saying & they not buying anything, then they make zero gains when price goes up. Serves them right, padan muka sama dia orang.
If they actually buying quietly on the sly, then that means that they not believing what they saying & they doing nothing but only sozzcchhai boullshhitting.
In that case then they lose their credibility & trust among us all.
thanks for the sharing of interesting discounts on lazada and shope, Mr Calvin
I mean, yes, why not spend 1 cents on a cheap glove to roam around Covid ward of 50 patients in a day and do per rectal examination while we're at it
Quality over quantity la... gloves are never meant to be part of consumer market, large medical institutions and workforce will be buying them in bulk, from reputable marketeers... not from some Tom, Dick and Harry who sells gloves at 1 cents during mega Raya discounts...
I agree, the argument to imply saturated prices of gloves due to high supply is valid.. but to equate it with other consumables/wearable items in the market, like Tomatoes are just absurd. One is a commodity, and another one is a necessity.
Unlike gloves, I also can plant tomatoes in my backyard la friend.. Gloves are a necessity in combating the pandemic, and while lives are in my hands literally; what better way to handle them safely with a pair of high-quality-multiple-layered gloves?
I dare you to roam around a medical ward filled with 50 ill-infected patients while wearing your 1 cent Lazada Raya sale cheap gloves and masks, and do per rectal examination while you're at it...
I'm no economist, nor an eagle, but I'd rather be human. Not an eagle that roams around her prey, only to be shot down by a hunter-gatherer that is... human.
Wear your human-thinking cap, it takes no rocket scientist to understand that the pandemic is far from over and the demand will continue to exceed supply.
And I'm sure as hell will be glad that gloves prices got cheaper, therefore to save another priceless human being's life will be easier.
Gotta grab those sales on Lazada stat!
@PJSeow, couldn't have said it any better, agree with you.
Never b4 in the past 1 year during the pendemic Lazada & shoopee offer discount on gloves mah!
If they offer discount....that means another no good sign on gloves...is coming mah!
Thus be very careful loh!!
Posted by drken91 > May 2, 2021 11:29 AM | Report Abuse
thanks for the sharing of interesting discounts on lazada and shope, Mr Calvin
I mean, yes, why not spend 1 cents on a cheap glove to roam around Covid ward of 50 patients in a day and do per rectal examination while we're at it
Quality over quantity la... gloves are never meant to be part of consumer market, large medical institutions and workforce will be buying them in bulk, from reputable marketeers... not from some Tom, Dick and Harry who sells gloves at 1 cents during mega Raya discounts...
I agree, the argument to imply saturated prices of gloves due to high supply is valid.. but to equate it with other consumables/wearable items in the market, like Tomatoes are just absurd. One is a commodity, and another one is a necessity.
Unlike gloves, I also can plant tomatoes in my backyard la friend.. Gloves are a necessity in combating the pandemic, and while lives are in my hands literally; what better way to handle them safely with a pair of high-quality-multiple-layered gloves?
I dare you to roam around a medical ward filled with 50 ill-infected patients while wearing your 1 cent Lazada Raya sale cheap gloves and masks, and do per rectal examination while you're at it...
I'm no economist, nor an eagle, but I'd rather be human. Not an eagle that roams around her prey, only to be shot down by a hunter-gatherer that is... human.
Wear your human-thinking cap, it takes no rocket scientist to understand that the pandemic is far from over and the demand will continue to exceed supply.
And I'm sure as hell will be glad that gloves prices got cheaper, therefore to save another priceless human being's life will be easier.
Gotta grab those sales on Lazada stat!
@PJSeow, couldn't have said it any better, agree with you.
Supermax Insiders/Direcors buying shares from Open Market show Glove good days are ahead
So we follow buy then
Now the Scene is different
TopGlove Boss is SELLING HIS TOPGLOVE Shares Through Tropicana
SO THE PROSPECT FROM NOW IS GOING TO BE NO GOOD
So we Follow SELL.
KUALA LUMPUR (April 16): Tropicana Corp Bhd sold shares in Top Glove Corp Bhd at a loss.
The property developer disposed of 1.85 million Top Glove shares for RM9.98 million, or an average selling price of RM5.395 per share, at below its investment cost of RM12.59 million (RM6.805 per share), according to the company's filing.
The glove maker’s share price has rebounded from the low of RM4.52 last month to close at RM5.57 today.
“The disposal was undertaken in order to minimise losses as the market price of Top Glove shares has recovered marginally since early 2021.
It is worth noting that Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai is also a chairman and a substantial shareholder of Tropicana, holding 162.21 million shares or an 11.07% direct interest.
NOTE VERY VERY CAREFULLY
The glove maker’s share price has rebounded from the low of RM4.52 last month to close at RM5.57 today.
SEE: RM5.57 IS DEEMED ENOUGH REBOUND FOR A SELL
NOW TOP GLOVE IS RM5.65 (SO THE RISK OUTWEIGHTS THE SMALL GAIN)
ANY HIGHER TOPGLOVE BOSS MIGHT AGAIN TELL TROPICANA TO SELL MORE
SEE AGAIN
“The disposal was undertaken in order to minimise losses as the market price of Top Glove shares has recovered marginally since early 2021.
""THE SALE AT RM5.75 IS TO MINIMISE LOSSES""
IN OTHER WORDS, SO IF DON'T SELL THEN MIGHT LOSE EVEN MORE?
AND WHO IS THE PERSON BEHIND THE MOVE TO SELL?
SEE
"It is worth noting that Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai is also a chairman and a substantial shareholder of Tropicana, holding 162.21 million shares or an 11.07% direct interest."
The gloves pre pendemic price was usd 22 & now it is usd 70 an increase of 220% in selling price from pre pendemic, it is going downhill from here loh!
Can u imagine the gloves price will fall from USD 70 to as low as usd 25 post pendemic leh ?? This is a fall of almost 65% from the peak of usd 70 mah!
U ask yourself lah....the cost of manufucturing gloves as gone up so much for example the cost of labor wages all in and plus cost of accomodation and investment into billion of machinery in the case of topgloves, do u think the sustainable price of gloves at usd 25 compare to usd 22 pre pendemic an increase of only 13% can support the majority of its operations with still good profit leh ??
And whats more u think the gloves company normalise far lower earnings base on selling price of USD 25 can still support the mkt cap of topgloves Rm 46.3b, Harta Rm 35.3b and supermax Rm 16.4b leh ??
Look here the forecast of lower price of gloves is not done by Raider loh, it is done by Topgloves employing very reputable consultants Harps n vital factors to forecast the normalise average selling price of gloves in conjunction of their decision to list in HK market mah!
If they really believing in what they saying & they not buying anything, then they make zero gains when price goes up. Serves them right, padan muka sama dia orang.
If they actually buying quietly on the sly, then that means that they not believing in what they saying & they doing nothing but only sozzcchhai boullshhitting.
In that case then they lose their credibility & trust among us all.
Everybody has their rights to put forth their point of view for consideration. Although it can be a bit annoying that those who have sold off earlier and have missed out on the current uptrend are making the most noise and scraping the bottom of barrel to come up with some arguments against the glove stocks as if their arguments can suddenly reverse the trend to match their belief that glove bull run has ended. If really that happens then it would pacify their ego and redeem their earlier decision to sell off. However, if the uptrend keeps going up and turn into a super bull for glove, then they will be having endless sleepless nights regretting and worst still to swallow their highly guarded pride.
The third wave of COVID is a serious one, mutations are unstoppable for now. You like it or not, it will take a longer time for COVID to be completely controlled because at the current state of global vaccination, it will take at least another 2 years for everyone to be vaccinated.
The demand for glove will always be there, whether the share price sustains or not, another question but the prices are reflective of the current and foreseeable earnings for the next 2 years. All these rubbish about gloves selling price is reducing is all bullshit and for personal interest. Only worry if you are a contra player if not, no need to listen to the noises around you. Make your own judgement and invest safely.
If they really believing what they saying & they not buying anything, then they make zero gains when price goes up. Serves them right, padan muka sama dia orang.
If they actually buying quietly on the sly, then that means that they not believing what they saying & they doing nothing but only sozzcchhai boullshhitting.
In that case then they lose their credibility & trust among us all.
If they really believing in what they saying & they not buying anything, then they make zero gains when price goes up. Serves them right, padan muka sama dia orang.
But if they actually buying quietly on the sly, then that means that they not believing in what they saying & they doing nothing but only sozzcchhai boullshhitting.
In that case then they lose their credibility & trust among us all.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
Listen to this
Great minds talk about ideas.
Good minds talk about things
Weak minds talk about people
Here is the place to brain storm ideas to find the truth
2021-05-01 20:28