This is a theory that is usually very popular during the immature phase of a stock market's development. More of the followers of this theory are not aware that the trading system which they believe in goes by this peculiar name. From the stock market's behaviour during the past three booms, we can say that many Malaysians/Singaporeans appear to be strong supporters of this theory. This theory was very popular in the US during the 1920s but since then, it has fallen out of favour even though pockets of true believers still appear from time to time.
In essence, believers of this theory hold that stock prices are not dependent on anything tangible but rather dependent on the continual appearance of more people who are willing to purchase the stocks at an even higher price {these people are the so-called 'greater fools'). Thus, it neither matters what price one buys a stock nor that the stock's price is ridiculously high by any normal standard of measurement. Thus the believers of this school of thought hold the view that whatever stock one buys can always be sold at a higher price because there will always be greater fools than themselves. Thus, it is fine to buy MUIB at $24.00 because there will be another person foolish (or brave) enough to pay $26.00 for it. Believers of the greater fool theory never for a minute think that the supply of fools will be exhausted and that they may be the final purchaser before the crash.
During every stock market boom, there are usually a large number of believers of the greater fool theory and some of them actually make a lot of money on the way up. Some of them get out in time by finding some greater fools to take over their hot potatoes in the nick of time but many find that they themselves end up as the greatest fools because there is no one else willing to bid up the price anymore. Needless to say, the Greater Fool Theory is a much discredited one among academics and most professionals. But it still finds many adherents. Why is this so? Everyone is having too much fun, (that is, making so much money) on the way up that they do not want to leave the market. George Goodman, writing under the pen name of 'Adam Smith' has this wonderful parable to explain how people are caught up in the web of the Greater Fool Theory and do not know when to get out.
We are all at a wonderful ball where champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, terrorists will burst in through the terrace doors, killing many and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early will be saved, but the ball is so splendid that no one wants to leave while there is still time. Everyone wants to enjoy one more dance and sip one more glass of champagne. So everyone kept asking: "What time is it? What time is it?" We look around and find that all the clocks have no hands.
This may be a surrealist's way of describing the stock market but Goodman's parable has a great deal of truth in it. Of course, we know that in every speculative boom of the past, the 'terrorists' did come when most of the guests were still enjoying themselves at the ball. As 'Adam Smith' implies, nobody knows when a speculative boom will end but end it must for that is the rule. At every speculative boom, not many of the small speculators escaped with their gains made on the way up. Most of the smaller speculators known to me eventually lost all their gains and much more than what has been gained.
Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality. Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life.
In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch, generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is related. He was once asked how it was that he remained so rich while many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid answer: 'I always sold too early.'
Calvin comments:
Greater fool theory applies to these
1) PUNT HOT STOCKS WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL
Buying a stock with no fundamental but just based on pump and dump operating of syndicates that churn up stock prices by sheer price rising & rumour....making the stock market like a casino
2) OVER PAYING EVEN FOR A GOOD STOCK
Over pay & chase even a good stock into complete & total over valuation
There is an intrinsic value for everything but in greater fool game "value is thrown on & a stock is bidded up into irrational zone".
Those who can enter early & leave early might still make gains but eventually al who played this game will still lose out by high brokerage commissions due to over trading costs
WHY SHOULD A STOCK GO UP IN VALUE?
Only Two Reasons:
1) BY REAL CONSISTENT & INCREMENTAL EARNINGS OF A COMPANY THROUGH ITS ENTIRE LIFE CYCLE
Behind every stock is a Real Company selling Real Goods or Services. And they should generate real profits that pay out dividends to share holders
2) BY REDUCING COST OF PRODUCTION
A company which looks to save on cost by efficiency can also increase in profits
ALL OTHERS ARE JUST SCAMS IF PRICES ARE MANIPULATED TO THE SKY.
calvintaneng
80% of the people only play play and punt punt in the stock market like gambling in a casino is bound to fail
10% will break even but wasting their time
Only 10% minority who invest carefully will succeed
2021-08-31 12:50