Dear Investors,

Brent crude now USD87.56

Why it will benefit Palm Oil the most?

Answer:

Because Cpo is used in Biodisel & if Brent Oil is high there is more reason to use Biodisel which is made from Palm oil

See

The Influence of Crude Oil Price in Biodiesel and its Implication on the Production of Palm Oil: The Case of Indonesia

Wahyu Murti1

Abstract:

Over the last five years (2012-2016) there has been a rise in world oil prices which were very noticeable on an average of 17,85 percent per year. This increase encouraged the increased use of alternative fuels, one of which was biodiesel.

It was estimated that the average increase in global biodiesel production amounted to 43.18 percent per year. Because one of biodiesel feedstocks was CPO, the increased production of biodiesel causes CPO export demand to increase simultanesly. The Bio-diesel utilization is also expected to reduce oil consumption.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of crude oil price increase on the Bio-diesel utilization, oil consumption reduction, and pollutant emission reduction.

Keywords: Crude Oil Price, Biodiesel, Palm oil

JEL Classification: F3, G15

1 Faculty of Economics, University Borobudur Jakarta, Indonesia, murti_why@yahoo.com

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1. Introduction

Nordin, Simeh, Shariff and Baharim (2007), proved in their studies that there is a relationship between the price of crude oil and biodiesel. The results showed that the increase in oil prices during the period of the last few years encouraged some countries to begin to pay attention to the use of alternative fuels, among others from the plant (biodiesel). The increase of petroleum will increase biodiesel production. Ramli, Abas, R. and Ayatollah (2007) in their studies proved that the crude oil price is affected by biodiesel, the first derivative product of palm oil which produces palm oil (known as crude palm oil or abbreviated with CPO), utilizing biodiesel which comes from palm oil, the results showed that the biodiesel increase has affected the crude palm oil price.

The development industries based on this CPO in addition directed to produce food products such as cooking oil, margarine, shortening, Cocoa Butter subtitute (CBS), and vegetable ghee, it is also directed to produce non-food products, such as industrial oleochemical primary (fatty acid, fatty alcohol, glycerin ) and other oleochemical derivatives, namely surfactants, cosmetics, farmacy, and bioenergy. Oil palm plantations and palm oil industry as a means to improve the socio-economic conditions of rural communities through the implementation of operations Inti-Plasma programs (Zen et al., 2006). When the world oil price increases, many countries use CPO as raw material of bio-diesel fuel as a substitute (Karuppuswamy, Sundararaj and Elangovan, 2007; Pociovalisteanu et al., 2010; Thalassinos and Politis, 2012; Thalassinos et al., 2012). These conditions favor the use of biodiesel as a variety of targets alternatives to fossil energy applied to several countries in the world (Kennerly and Neely, 2003).

In 2020, the European Union set a target of 10 percent biofuels of raw palm oil. Zen, Barlow and Gondowarsito (2006) studied that the crude oil prices have an influence on the palm oil as pointed out by Ahuja and Khamba (2008). It has been proved that there is an influence of biodiesel on the production of palm oil. The research result on the biodiesel and its impact on crude palm oil and its implications for palm oil, showed that the growing number of biodiesel has a positive and significant effect towards crude oil palm as well as the implications for the production of palm oil rises (Ashayeri, 2007). The increase of demand and the use of palm oil as a fuel is expected to cause disruption of the availability of CPO as raw materials for food, especially palm oil (Chand and Shirvani, 2000; Enkawa and Schvaneveldt, 2001). Novelty of this research is to add the existing variables into world oil price of the biodiesel and its impact on crude palm oil and its effect on oil palm.

2. Theory and Hypothesis

As Santoso (2014) has pointed out bio-diesel is a natural renewable energy source that made from biomass or vegetable oil. As the bio-diesel has physical properties very similar to petroleum derived diesel fuel or ADO (Automobile Diesel Oil), bio-

The Influence of Crude Oil Price in Biodiesel and its Implication on the Production of Palm

Oil: The Case of Indonesia

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diesel has been used for motor engine since 1880’s. In 1920’s, bio-diesel production infrastructure has been nearly eliminated since diesel engine manufacturers altered their engine to utilize petroleum diesel that was much cheaper than Bio-diesel production. Recently, an increase on oil consumption, crude oil price, and ADO import have lead to consider bio-diesel utilization for transportation sector in Indonesia. An increase of the crude oil price that lead to a decreasing cost differential for bio-diesel production, bio-diesel utilization as alternative energy source in Indonesia is a real possibility. Some environmental impact concerns would also increase the bio-diesel utilization prospect.

Oil palm is a highly profitable crop adapted to the humid tropics and the area devoted to this crop is likely to expand significantly in the future. It has many environmentally favourable attributes over its full life cycle. When well managed it has a positive carbon balance and when grown in a landscape mosaic it can play a role in biodiversity conservation. It has driven rapid economic growth in several tropical developing countries and contributed to the alleviation of rural poverty. Abuses during periods of rapid estate expansion into areas of natural forest and onto the lands of poor rural communities have led to criticism by environmental and social activists. With good governance oil palm can make valuable contributions to development and the resulting prosperity may free people to invest (Sayer, 2012). The data shows that the demand for CPO as raw material MGS, margarine and shortening in Indonesia in 2004 amounted to 6.5 million tons increased to 10.6 million tons in 2010, or an average increase of 10.3 percent per year. While the CPO demand for non-food, especially for fatty acid, fatty alcohol, and glycerin in 2004 amounted to 114.8 thousand tons increased to 158 thousand tons in 2010. It showed that the average increase was 6.3 percent annually (Directorate General Agro and Chemical industry, 2004).

A researh conducted by Hartoyo (2011) has used an econometric model using simultaneous equations. An increase in world crude oil price of 0,192 percent caused the real export price of Indonesian palm oil to raise by 10,64 percent. Consequently, a larger biodiesel production is needed to meet their increase of world's consumer demand for bio-diesel. Also, with the increase in real export price of Indonesian palm oil, it will encourage palm oil producers to push their export volume. Indonesian palm oil exporter expected to increase by 6,37 percent to finally push the domestic CPO price increase by 1,85 percent. The rising of domestic oil prices are causing oil demand in the palm oil industry to decline by 0,49 percent and in the end resulting in the decline of palm oil production by 1,56 percent. The existing data indicate that the current national solar requirement amounted to 27 billion liters per year. It is meant that CPO could substitute 10 percent of the national diesel fuel requirements (Asian Development Bank and the Ministry of Industry, 2003). Ten (10) percent of the diesel fuel substitution has implications for the availability of palm oil as a raw material of food. With the increasing need for diesel fuel as a raw material to fuel, the demand for CPO as the raw material for fuel allegedly will continue to increase. Hameed and Arshad (2009) in their research showed that in the

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long term there is a directional relationship between the crude oil prices to the demand of oil from four plants, namely palm oil, rap seed, soybean, and sunflower. The fuel prices which continue to rise will increase the demand for biofuels such as bio-diesel. Currently, Indonesia was the biggest oil palm producer in the world with more than 50% of the market.

Table 1. Breakdown of global palm oil production

Palm oil itself is a commodity product in Indonesia which during 2002-2013, overtook oil as the main stay with an average growth of 13.4% per year. The largest increase was in 2001 and 2002, which is also called the palm booming due to an increase of 42% per year. Indonesia has a big contribution in control of oil palm price in the world (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Oil Palm Production

3. Oil Palm Condition in Indonesia

Sumber: Indexmundi 2014 (diolah)

Why Not OGSE?

Answer:

Because Petronas has allocated 9% Capex for Renewable Energy like Hydro, Solar & Biodisel for year 2,022 to avoid pollution due to climate change

Best Regards

Calvin Tan

Please buy or sell after doing your own diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager