THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
AVOID CHASING TECH SUPERBUBBLE AS IT COULD BE A BULL TRAP JUST LIKE CHASING GLOVE BULL TRAP, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022, 08:37 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,732
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends of i3 Forum
Like many things cyclical TECHNOLOGY IS ALSO A CYCLICAL IN DOWNTREND
BE VERY CAREFUL NOT TO GET CAUGHT BY THE REBOUND WHICH MAY WELL BE A "BULL TRAP"
WHAT IS A BULL TRAP?
Let Calvin illusrates by looking at SUPERMAX Spectacular Euphoric Rise & Then the Equally Bruising Fall Chart
See chart of Supermax below
KLSE: SUPERMX
1D
5D
1M
6M
YTD
1Y
5Y
Max
| Open | 1.22 |
| High | 1.23 |
| Low | 1.20 |
| Mkt cap | 3.26B |
| P/E ratio | 0.88 |
| Div yield | - |
| 52-wk high | 7.16 |
| 52-wk low | 1.20 |
After reaching the Peak of Rm24.44 (Split Value Rm12.22)
Supermax started to descend
When Supermax dropped to Rm7.50 there was a Sudden Rebound Upward And Many Thought Supermax bull run will resume & chased it to Rm10.00
Alas! From there it was a "Bull Trap" as Supermax fell below Rm7.50
And then it was Down hill all the way with Smaller "Bull Trap" along the way down
See the picture of a bull trap
Now that FED is Reducing Money Printing Plus Raising Interest rate at the same time. It is like firing two Torpedoes on the Sinking Technology Ship which is Frothy at Very Elevated Prices
As Such the Tech Superbubble is bursting
The fall is swift, sweeping & severe
They look like these
Going up slowly but falling down fast
Then Falling over the Cliff
SO IN ORDER NOT TO GET HURT PLEASE STAY VERY SAFE
KEEP TO DEFENSIVE STOCKS WITH HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY
BEST REGRADS,
Pre-Markets
US STOCK FUTURES
DOW FUTURES
-542.00-1.57%
- Level34,074.00
- Fair Value34,151.01
- Implied Open-77.01
S&P 500 FUTURES
-100.25-2.24%
- Level4,374.50
- Fair Value4,389.72
- Implied Open-15.22
NASDAQ FUTURES
-500.25-3.37%
- Level14,340.75
- Fair Value14,425.41
- Implied Open-84.66
Data as of January 24, 7:29 AM EST. Based on March 2022 contract. Fair value provided b
Calvin Tan
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 54 comments
Smartly
at what stage is palm oil?
4 stages of bull mark
1. Bull market is born in pessimism
Dirty Ib banks and media harped on palm oil bad due to Esg kept people in pessimism
2. Bull market grows in skepticism
3. Bull market matures in optimism
4. Bull market dies in euphoria
Glove went through euphoria and died
Tech super euphoria is now imploding
Palm oil is still between pessimism and skepticism
Judge correctly
2022-01-24 21:11
After the recent pullback, most tech counters are still grossly overvalued with PE between 40 to 80 times ! How to justify such lofty valuations?
2022-01-24 21:29
More pullback is expected for Tech .
Whereas half of the plantation companies are trading at 5-7 x PE . Many big plantations are trading at historic low single PE. DY at high level . Plantation is the safest place to be.
2022-01-24 21:35
Two factors that determine the direction of stock prices are 1) expectations of earnings increasing or decreasing, and 2) the market multiple (price/earnings ratio), which is an estimate on what investors are willing to pay for a future stream of earnings.
Both are under pressure.
2022-01-24 22:34
Nasdaq going over the Cliff
If FED raises interest rates by 4 times as planned then Tech can drop another 40%
If halts interest rate rise then there will be respite
Tech stock rout will bring down common stocks by contagion
Only palm oil as a class remain steadfast in the sell down carnage as it is in a different cycle altogether
2022-01-26 06:29
It all started in March 2020 collapse due to Covid 19 lock down when FED started printing money
Fiat money of Usd6 Trillions were printed and interest rate drop to zero have flooded Tech stocks with easy money and pumped up the entire Tech into a Super bubble
After prolonged rise many thought it has become a norm and think "this time is different " and assign P/E 60 to 200 for Tech stocks
Lulled by false human engineered new benchmark many plunged headlong into the mad bull frenzy
Sensible stocks like palm oil is given P/E of single digit and avoided
This complete distortion of real and perceived value have now come back to its right senses
When all finally wake up many will have landed in poverty
2022-01-26 06:38
Time to get out of Tech stocks and don't look back until Tech falls by another 40%
Keep to the safety of palm oil until the tsunami selling waves of Tech is over then only consider
2022-01-26 08:02
By next few weeks all the palm oil companies results will be out one by one
Then shall all know who is the one telling the truth and the one spamming lies and hate
2022-01-26 08:23
If you so confidence what you invested, no need to good every forum keep on asking people sell other stocks to support what you invested.
Behave like scammer, always sweet talk how good what you invested, how profit can make what you invested.
We already knew you for the past 1 year, behave same matter to con everywhere, very soon we will hear this liar say, "oh, I already sold this palm oil stock to swift to other more profit can make"
Liar always liar, never change behaviour
2022-01-26 08:30
Tell others sell?'
Yes told pang72 to sell gpacket at Rm1.60
Now gpacket crashed 90% to less than 10 sen
If good stocks like palm oil are not promoted syndicates will promote bad stocks
Why is your mind so warped with prejudice?
Better check all the facts true or not?
2022-01-26 08:37
Philip ( buy what you understand)
First time you know him? I bought glove stocks since 2009 and said not a word while enjoying huge profits. Why need to bring other stocks down to push up your own stock picks? I buy gloves, tech, chemicals and palm oil ( small amounts because we all know this is unsustainable, and my farm itself is doing good but suffering because of covid and lack of workers to deliver palm oil). Calvin who lives in Holland and knows nothing about palm oil except what he reads, his palm oil stock not doing well despite high prices( and he still didn't know why), so he needs to bring down other stocks so people will support his stock picks.
He try to bring down yinson ( lawsuit). Now apologize.
He try to bring down pchem ( just read his comments before). Now pchem is all time revenue and earnings and dividend high.
He try to talk bad about other stock( any and all) just to get people to buy his scam stocks like netx, talamt and scomies and now his recent palm oil stocks which haven't been moving at all.
Very sad indeed.
These kind of harvest city pastors are all like that, they try to push their own star by casting mud on everything else.
Typical conman
>>>>>>>>
Liar always liar, never change behaviour
26/01/2022 8:30 AM
2022-01-26 08:41
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Worst of all using Jesus name to promote reliability and trustworthiness. The road to hell is paved with good intentions indeed.
2022-01-26 08:43
I give LIKE
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jan 26, 2022 8:43 AM | Report Abuse
Worst of all using Jesus name to promote reliability and trustworthiness. The road to hell is paved with good intentions indeed.
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jan 26, 2022 8:41 AM | Report Abuse
Very sad indeed.
These kind of harvest city pastors are all like that, they try to push their own star by casting mud on everything else.
Typical conman
2022-01-26 08:48
Kudos to Phillip and intrinsic 99! Speaking up to a thick skinned guy is not easy
2022-01-26 08:54
It’s prudent to stop chasing stocks or sectors that is already very lofty in valuations. This is especially so when there are many heighten risk factors around presently . When interest rate keep going up, inflation out of control and supply chain problem prolonged, many high growth stories (to justify lofty valuations) will come to an end .
2022-01-26 09:21
Mr.calvintaneng.....if I may make a suggestion...
I suggest that you create a table with all the palm oil stocks you have recommended and put in their closing prices as of December 31, 2021, then run their prices into the table at the end of the reporting season.
This will give a clear and transparent picture as to whether your price predictions are correct.
This may put to an end these daily skirmishes that seem to be endless. Do you think that would be feasible?
Frankly, the daily promotions and subsequent arguments have became very tiresome.
2022-01-26 09:32
Year 2022 & onward is Value stocks instead of Growth stocks as mentioned in many investment/money market/etc talks.
2022-01-26 09:33
Mr Otb
I hope you do very well in Taann as well as Tsh resources
Have a nice day
2022-01-26 11:35
Haha. How do you compare tech stocks with gloves stocks. Glove stock is all about one-off gain. Investors foresee that glove profit will drop back to the pre-covid stage. That's why they sold their overvalued shares. How is this even relevant? Do you think demand for semi conductors, EVs, clouds will drop in the next 10-20 years? You clearly don't know what you missed out. Seen this mascot for years on i3, still talk like a totally inexperienced rookie.
2022-01-26 12:07
finally the sensible people of i3 are coming out to cut off the spammer/scammer. such a delusional and annoying piece of ...
2022-01-26 12:40
OTB, Phillip and Intrinsic99 are heroes and preservers of the integrity of I3 forum
2022-01-26 12:44
pokerpro88?
poker is a gambler
See this
https://biblehub.com/proverbs/28-4.htm
2022-01-26 13:20
pathetic so called pastor...The Lord says thou shall not judge and look at you!
2022-01-26 15:27
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Nola, he is also promote and get people to buy big in talamt and netx,
>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by Want2MakeMoney > Jan 26, 2022 2:31 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin only loves and promote palm oil stock. lol
2022-01-26 19:44
Hahaha Ivanlau!
We shall see what you say is true or what Calvin say is true
Just watch for 3, 6 and 9 months or as long as the sun endures whose words are correct
2022-01-26 20:00
The momentary rebound of Tech offers a last chance to escape just like when Supermax dropped to Rm7.50 from Rm12.22
Supermax was chased from Rm7.50 to Rm10.00 in a strong "bull trap" and after the last bull entered the trap Supermax plunged to the low of Rm1.30
Same is repeating for those who chase the tail of the Tech bull now
2022-01-27 06:09
Jan 27): Oil palm planters in Malaysia are confronting a hard truth — behind the red-hot rally in prices are thousands of jobs that nobody wants.
While high prices typically encourage planting and production of crops, output in No. 2 grower Malaysia slumped to a five-year low last year and planters say the main reason for that is the industry’s worst-ever shortage of workers.
The inability to increase supply in response to rising prices goes to the heart of what’s driving palm oil to record highs. Output growth in top producer Indonesia is slowing too. This is important for global food inflation because the two countries account for more than 80% of world supplies, and consumption of the edible oil in everything from food, to detergent and fuel is expanding.
“The volume of palm oil that will come onto the market is more or less fixed and not going to grow very much,” said Julian Conway McGill, Head of South East Asia at LMC International, a consulting firm. “But the world keeps needing more vegetable oil for food. We need to get those yields up.”
2022-01-27 14:25
Consumer will continue to pay more . Oil palm plantation will reap the profits. The wild weather arising from climate change will particularly put production of other oil crops like soya, relapsed etc at high risk .
2022-01-27 14:46
This is not hard selling or desperate promotion of oil palm counters. This is hard fact the world going to face !
2022-01-27 14:48
Tech is the future. Global big tech companies will cont grow but not Malaysia lousy outdated tech companies.
2022-01-27 14:52
Philip ( buy what you understand)
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
>>>>>>>>
Calvin tan record of stock picks promoted since 2019 performance... he will tell you he bought all at the right time and sold at the right time.
He will also con you and say that he bought NETX at 0.01 cent with no chance of it dropping... and now NETX is at 0.12 cent! amazing 12x return...
however take a look at the reverse dilution to know the truth of how his investments over the years are really doing.
2022-01-27 14:56
CPO crossed above $5,600 for Feb and March contract! This is no bullshit !
2022-01-27 15:50
Anyone itchy tiptoed back into Bloated Tech now caught in the bull trap.
2022-02-18 03:02
Netflix and Facebook or meta verse have both crashed among the Faang stocks of Nasdaq
Klse tech stocks will follow them down
Better avoid all Malaysia bloated Tech all together
2022-02-21 08:42
During Monsoon of Nov to March next year fishermen of Kedah, Trengganu and Pahang will not venture out to fish in the South China Sea
So the ill. Wind of Riding interest from FED will be a danger to Tech stock players
Be very wise
Fishermen don't risk their lives
Likewise better don't take risk wading into Tech bubble
2022-02-21 08:49
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
the most expensive phrase is this
"This time is different"
There is no real difference between any bubble
anything chased to gross overvaluation will go back to it's senses
2022-01-24 21:03