THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

AVOID CHASING TECH SUPERBUBBLE AS IT COULD BE A BULL TRAP JUST LIKE CHASING GLOVE BULL TRAP, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022, 08:37 PM
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Friends of i3 Forum

Like many things cyclical TECHNOLOGY IS ALSO A CYCLICAL IN DOWNTREND

BE VERY CAREFUL NOT TO GET CAUGHT BY THE REBOUND WHICH MAY WELL BE A "BULL TRAP"

WHAT IS A BULL TRAP?

 

Let Calvin illusrates by looking at SUPERMAX Spectacular Euphoric Rise & Then the Equally Bruising Fall Chart

 

See chart of Supermax below

 

Market Summary > Supermax Corporation Berhad
1.20 MYR+0.68 past 5 years
24 Jan, 5:00 pm MYT • Disclaimer
KLSE: SUPERMX

1D
5D
1M
6M
YTD
1Y
5Y
Max
Open 1.22
High 1.23
Low 1.20
Mkt cap 3.26B
P/E ratio 0.88
Div yield -
52-wk high 7.16
52-wk low 1.20

 

After reaching the Peak of Rm24.44 (Split Value Rm12.22)

Supermax started to descend

When Supermax dropped to Rm7.50 there was a Sudden Rebound Upward And Many Thought Supermax bull run will resume & chased it to Rm10.00

Alas! From there it was a "Bull Trap" as Supermax fell below Rm7.50

And then it was Down hill all the way with Smaller "Bull Trap" along the way down

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

See the picture of a bull trap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now that FED is Reducing Money Printing Plus Raising Interest rate at the same time. It is like firing two Torpedoes on the Sinking Technology Ship which is Frothy at Very Elevated Prices

As Such the Tech Superbubble is bursting

 

The fall is swift, sweeping & severe

They look like these

 

Going up slowly but falling down fast

 

Then Falling over the Cliff
 
Stock Market Today: China's Evergrande Crisis Knocks 614 Points Off Dow
SO IN ORDER NOT TO GET HURT PLEASE STAY VERY SAFE
KEEP TO DEFENSIVE STOCKS WITH HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY
BEST REGRADS,

Pre-Markets

US STOCK FUTURES

DOW FUTURES

-542.00-1.57%
  • Level34,074.00
  • Fair Value34,151.01
  • Implied Open-77.01

S&P 500 FUTURES

-100.25-2.24%
  • Level4,374.50
  • Fair Value4,389.72
  • Implied Open-15.22

NASDAQ FUTURES

-500.25-3.37%
  • Level14,340.75
  • Fair Value14,425.41
  • Implied Open-84.66
Data as of January 24, 7:29 AM EST. Based on March 2022 contract. Fair value provided b
Calvin Tan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 55 comments

calvintaneng

Smartly

at what stage is palm oil?

4 stages of bull mark

1. Bull market is born in pessimism
Dirty Ib banks and media harped on palm oil bad due to Esg kept people in pessimism

2. Bull market grows in skepticism

3. Bull market matures in optimism

4. Bull market dies in euphoria

Glove went through euphoria and died

Tech super euphoria is now imploding

Palm oil is still between pessimism and skepticism

Judge correctly

2022-01-24 21:11

Johnzhang

After the recent pullback, most tech counters are still grossly overvalued with PE between 40 to 80 times ! How to justify such lofty valuations?

2022-01-24 21:29

Johnzhang

More pullback is expected for Tech .
Whereas half of the plantation companies are trading at 5-7 x PE . Many big plantations are trading at historic low single PE. DY at high level . Plantation is the safest place to be.

2022-01-24 21:35

Legend

Two factors that determine the direction of stock prices are 1) expectations of earnings increasing or decreasing, and 2) the market multiple (price/earnings ratio), which is an estimate on what investors are willing to pay for a future stream of earnings.

Both are under pressure.

2022-01-24 22:34

calvintaneng

Nasdaq going over the Cliff

If FED raises interest rates by 4 times as planned then Tech can drop another 40%

If halts interest rate rise then there will be respite

Tech stock rout will bring down common stocks by contagion

Only palm oil as a class remain steadfast in the sell down carnage as it is in a different cycle altogether

2022-01-26 06:29

calvintaneng

It all started in March 2020 collapse due to Covid 19 lock down when FED started printing money

Fiat money of Usd6 Trillions were printed and interest rate drop to zero have flooded Tech stocks with easy money and pumped up the entire Tech into a Super bubble

After prolonged rise many thought it has become a norm and think "this time is different " and assign P/E 60 to 200 for Tech stocks

Lulled by false human engineered new benchmark many plunged headlong into the mad bull frenzy

Sensible stocks like palm oil is given P/E of single digit and avoided

This complete distortion of real and perceived value have now come back to its right senses

When all finally wake up many will have landed in poverty

2022-01-26 06:38

calvintaneng

Time to get out of Tech stocks and don't look back until Tech falls by another 40%

Keep to the safety of palm oil until the tsunami selling waves of Tech is over then only consider

2022-01-26 08:02

Intrinsic99

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-26 08:10

Intrinsic99

liar always liar, behave like good man to cheat people every where

2022-01-26 08:14

calvintaneng

By next few weeks all the palm oil companies results will be out one by one

Then shall all know who is the one telling the truth and the one spamming lies and hate

2022-01-26 08:23

Intrinsic99

If you so confidence what you invested, no need to good every forum keep on asking people sell other stocks to support what you invested.

Behave like scammer, always sweet talk how good what you invested, how profit can make what you invested.

We already knew you for the past 1 year, behave same matter to con everywhere, very soon we will hear this liar say, "oh, I already sold this palm oil stock to swift to other more profit can make"

Liar always liar, never change behaviour

2022-01-26 08:30

calvintaneng

Tell others sell?'

Yes told pang72 to sell gpacket at Rm1.60
Now gpacket crashed 90% to less than 10 sen

If good stocks like palm oil are not promoted syndicates will promote bad stocks

Why is your mind so warped with prejudice?

Better check all the facts true or not?

2022-01-26 08:37

Philip ( buy what you understand)

First time you know him? I bought glove stocks since 2009 and said not a word while enjoying huge profits. Why need to bring other stocks down to push up your own stock picks? I buy gloves, tech, chemicals and palm oil ( small amounts because we all know this is unsustainable, and my farm itself is doing good but suffering because of covid and lack of workers to deliver palm oil). Calvin who lives in Holland and knows nothing about palm oil except what he reads, his palm oil stock not doing well despite high prices( and he still didn't know why), so he needs to bring down other stocks so people will support his stock picks.

He try to bring down yinson ( lawsuit). Now apologize.
He try to bring down pchem ( just read his comments before). Now pchem is all time revenue and earnings and dividend high.
He try to talk bad about other stock( any and all) just to get people to buy his scam stocks like netx, talamt and scomies and now his recent palm oil stocks which haven't been moving at all.

Very sad indeed.

These kind of harvest city pastors are all like that, they try to push their own star by casting mud on everything else.

Typical conman

>>>>>>>>

Liar always liar, never change behaviour
26/01/2022 8:30 AM

2022-01-26 08:41

Philip ( buy what you understand)

Worst of all using Jesus name to promote reliability and trustworthiness. The road to hell is paved with good intentions indeed.

2022-01-26 08:43

Intrinsic99

I give LIKE



Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jan 26, 2022 8:43 AM | Report Abuse

Worst of all using Jesus name to promote reliability and trustworthiness. The road to hell is paved with good intentions indeed.



Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jan 26, 2022 8:41 AM | Report Abuse

Very sad indeed.

These kind of harvest city pastors are all like that, they try to push their own star by casting mud on everything else.

Typical conman

2022-01-26 08:48

pokerpro88

Kudos to Phillip and intrinsic 99! Speaking up to a thick skinned guy is not easy

2022-01-26 08:54

calvintaneng

Philip
Why you keep telling lies that Calvin apologise to Yinson?

Where got the proof?

YOU ARE THE BIG LIAR!!

As for harping only on a few why not post the list you drafted

All please read this carefully

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-10-27...

2022-01-26 09:02

Johnzhang

It’s prudent to stop chasing stocks or sectors that is already very lofty in valuations. This is especially so when there are many heighten risk factors around presently . When interest rate keep going up, inflation out of control and supply chain problem prolonged, many high growth stories (to justify lofty valuations) will come to an end .

2022-01-26 09:21

TreeTopView

Mr.calvintaneng.....if I may make a suggestion...

I suggest that you create a table with all the palm oil stocks you have recommended and put in their closing prices as of December 31, 2021, then run their prices into the table at the end of the reporting season.

This will give a clear and transparent picture as to whether your price predictions are correct.

This may put to an end these daily skirmishes that seem to be endless. Do you think that would be feasible?

Frankly, the daily promotions and subsequent arguments have became very tiresome.

2022-01-26 09:32

CCWONG

Year 2022 & onward is Value stocks instead of Growth stocks as mentioned in many investment/money market/etc talks.

2022-01-26 09:33

calvintaneng

TreeTopView

This is a nice ID

See how later as I quite busy

2022-01-26 09:43

OTB

Dear calvintaneng,

I had advised you nicely do not talk bad about other stocks to promote your favourite stocks.
You do not want to listen to my advice.
It is nothing wrong to promote your favourite stocks in I3.

I hope you should stop to talk bad about other stocks in I3.
I believe it is a code of ethics in I3.
I write this posting sincerely because I do not want others to attack you.
I treat you as a good friend of mine.
Thank you.
Your sincerely.

My previous posting to you.
Quote !!
In I3, there are many good analysts, not only calvintaneng.

I do not attack anyone, especially writers in I3.
I do not like to talk bad about any stock in I3.

I believe I also can analyse stocks and talk with facts and figures on par with many good writers in I3.

I believe this article is very unfair and misleading to many investors in I3 including my followers.

I recommended a strong buy on AYS on 26/8/2021 at 0.47 to my followers.
Personally, I bought 2 million shares of AYS around 0.47.
I sold all 2 million shares of AYS from 0.90 to 0.95 on 26/10/2021 and 27/10/2021. I made a very good profit in the first round now.
I bought back 500k each during correction at 0.605 and 0.54 respectively, I still hold 1 million shares of AYS.

I recommended a buy on Taann at 2.92 on 1/9/2021 to my followers.
Personally, I bought 100k shares of Taann at 2.93, I still keep these shares until today.
The reason that I did not buy big on Taann because there is an ESG issues on palm oil stocks.
All big institutional investors or big fund managers do not invest in palm oil stocks due to ESG issues.

The profit from AYS is so much better compared against Taann.
I even made around 100% ROI gain on AYS after I sold them.

I made a paper gain of 15.7% gain on Taann ytd.

How can calvintaneng comment that the gain from palm oil stocks is better than steel stocks ?

From my above analysis, the gain from steel stock is better than palm oil stock.

I believe it is not good to talk bad about other stocks to promote your favourite stocks.
I never talk bad on any stock in I3.
I still hold on to this code of ethics in I3 all the time.

To me, I do not care about a white cat or black cat, can catch a rat is a good cat.

I hold back to post this article for a long time because I do not wish to start a dispute with any writer in I3.
My followers want me to post this article because this article written by calvintaneng is very biased and misleading to all readers in I3.

I will let all the readers here to assess the situation and to make a conclusion on this article written by calvintaneng.

Thank you.
Unquote !!

2022-01-26 10:00

calvintaneng

Mr Otb

I hope you do very well in Taann as well as Tsh resources

Have a nice day

2022-01-26 11:35

vcinvestor

haha uncle bring out the rotan de

2022-01-26 11:46

镠公公

Haha. How do you compare tech stocks with gloves stocks. Glove stock is all about one-off gain. Investors foresee that glove profit will drop back to the pre-covid stage. That's why they sold their overvalued shares. How is this even relevant? Do you think demand for semi conductors, EVs, clouds will drop in the next 10-20 years? You clearly don't know what you missed out. Seen this mascot for years on i3, still talk like a totally inexperienced rookie.

2022-01-26 12:07

pokerpro88

finally the sensible people of i3 are coming out to cut off the spammer/scammer. such a delusional and annoying piece of ...

2022-01-26 12:40

pokerpro88

OTB, Phillip and Intrinsic99 are heroes and preservers of the integrity of I3 forum

2022-01-26 12:44

calvintaneng

pokerpro88?

poker is a gambler

See this

https://biblehub.com/proverbs/28-4.htm

2022-01-26 13:20

Intrinsic99

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-26 14:11

calvintaneng

intrinsic99 got mental problem

2022-01-26 14:28

Want2MakeMoney

Calvin only loves and promote palm oil stock. lol

2022-01-26 14:31

Intrinsic99

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-26 14:33

pokerpro88

pathetic so called pastor...The Lord says thou shall not judge and look at you!

2022-01-26 15:27

pokerpro88

live in your fantasy world you sad scammer

2022-01-26 15:27

pokerpro88

bring it on you patehetic bully

2022-01-26 15:28

Philip ( buy what you understand)

Nola, he is also promote and get people to buy big in talamt and netx,

>>>>>>>>>>>


Posted by Want2MakeMoney > Jan 26, 2022 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin only loves and promote palm oil stock. lol

2022-01-26 19:44

ivanlau

Calvintaneng

you better watch out! Your KPOWER might follow Serba later!

2022-01-26 19:56

calvintaneng

Hahaha Ivanlau!

We shall see what you say is true or what Calvin say is true

Just watch for 3, 6 and 9 months or as long as the sun endures whose words are correct

2022-01-26 20:00

calvintaneng

The momentary rebound of Tech offers a last chance to escape just like when Supermax dropped to Rm7.50 from Rm12.22

Supermax was chased from Rm7.50 to Rm10.00 in a strong "bull trap" and after the last bull entered the trap Supermax plunged to the low of Rm1.30

Same is repeating for those who chase the tail of the Tech bull now

2022-01-27 06:09

Intrinsic99

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-27 08:25

Intrinsic99

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-27 08:28

Johnzhang

Jan 27): Oil palm planters in Malaysia are confronting a hard truth — behind the red-hot rally in prices are thousands of jobs that nobody wants.

While high prices typically encourage planting and production of crops, output in No. 2 grower Malaysia slumped to a five-year low last year and planters say the main reason for that is the industry’s worst-ever shortage of workers.

The inability to increase supply in response to rising prices goes to the heart of what’s driving palm oil to record highs. Output growth in top producer Indonesia is slowing too. This is important for global food inflation because the two countries account for more than 80% of world supplies, and consumption of the edible oil in everything from food, to detergent and fuel is expanding.

“The volume of palm oil that will come onto the market is more or less fixed and not going to grow very much,” said Julian Conway McGill, Head of South East Asia at LMC International, a consulting firm. “But the world keeps needing more vegetable oil for food. We need to get those yields up.”

2022-01-27 14:25

Johnzhang

Consumer will continue to pay more . Oil palm plantation will reap the profits. The wild weather arising from climate change will particularly put production of other oil crops like soya, relapsed etc at high risk .

2022-01-27 14:46

Johnzhang

This is not hard selling or desperate promotion of oil palm counters. This is hard fact the world going to face !

2022-01-27 14:48

amateurJR

Tech is the future. Global big tech companies will cont grow but not Malaysia lousy outdated tech companies.

2022-01-27 14:52

Philip ( buy what you understand)

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

>>>>>>>>

Calvin tan record of stock picks promoted since 2019 performance... he will tell you he bought all at the right time and sold at the right time.

He will also con you and say that he bought NETX at 0.01 cent with no chance of it dropping... and now NETX is at 0.12 cent! amazing 12x return...

however take a look at the reverse dilution to know the truth of how his investments over the years are really doing.

2022-01-27 14:56

Johnzhang

CPO crossed above $5,600 for Feb and March contract! This is no bullshit !

2022-01-27 15:50

calvintaneng

Anyone itchy tiptoed back into Bloated Tech now caught in the bull trap.

2022-02-18 03:02

calvintaneng

Netflix and Facebook or meta verse have both crashed among the Faang stocks of Nasdaq

Klse tech stocks will follow them down

Better avoid all Malaysia bloated Tech all together

2022-02-21 08:42

calvintaneng

During Monsoon of Nov to March next year fishermen of Kedah, Trengganu and Pahang will not venture out to fish in the South China Sea


So the ill. Wind of Riding interest from FED will be a danger to Tech stock players

Be very wise

Fishermen don't risk their lives

Likewise better don't take risk wading into Tech bubble

2022-02-21 08:49

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