THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
TAANN (5012) Palm oil at Rm5.49 Versus YINSON (7293) OIl & Gas at Rm5.26, Compare & contrast their Prospects, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022, 10:01 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,798
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Investment Fraternity of i3 Forum,
As the title implies we will compare the Fortunes of Palm Oil (Taann) OIL VERSUS Oil & Gas (Yinson),
TAANN (5012)
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
31 Dec 2021
|
31 Dec 2020
|
31 Dec 2021
|
31 Dec 2020
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
611,531
|
363,322
|
1,894,353
|
1,217,998
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
187,893
|
-11,917
|
465,389
|
98,465
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
128,194
|
-6,776
|
392,392
|
77,663
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
96,017
|
-19,055
|
314,422
|
47,217
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
21.80
|
-4.33
|
71.38
|
10.72
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
5.00
|
30.00
|
15.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
3.6200
|
3.2500
|
||
Revenue Jumped from Rm363.322 Millions to Rm611.531 Millions or Up 68.31%
This qtr profit 21.80 sen
Annualised 4 X 21.80
= 87.20 sen
Price today Rm5.49
Forward P/E = 6.29
We use Forward P/E as Cpo in Super Uptrend Profit Now
Last qtr was Rm5,100 per ton Cpo average. Now FCpo March 2022 is a Whopping Rm7,473
| Name | Month | Open | Last Done | Change | Vol | OI | Sett. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCPO | Mar 2022 | 6,890.00 | 7,473.00 |
+755.00
|
548 | 5,971 | 6,718.00 |
| FCPO | Apr 2022 | 6,503.00 | 6,775.00 |
+465.00
|
5,694 | 34,918 | 6,310.00 |
| FCPO | May 2022 | 6,158.00 | 6,292.00 |
+326.00
|
31,567 | 86,715 | 5,966.00 |
So can we also use P/E 10 to measure TAANN?
If so then 87.20 sen X 10
= Rm8.72
Yes that will be our new Target Price for TAANN which is very reasonable
TAANN debts have been further pared down. Cash position has increased. Its balance sheet is very very very healthy!
That is why TAANN Could declare better dividends
See
| 28-Feb-2022 | 15-Mar-2022 | DIVIDEND | First Interim Dividend | RM 0.0500 |
 |
| 22-Nov-2021 | 04-Jan-2022 | DIVIDEND | Second Interim Dividend | RM 0.2000 |
|
| 09-Jul-2021 | 26-Jul-2021 | DIVIDEND | First Interim Dividend | RM 0.1000 |
|
| 23-Mar-2021 | 06-Apr-2021 | DIVIDEND | Second Interim Dividend | RM 0.0500 |
|
| 30-Nov-2020 | 29-Dec-2020 | DIVIDEND | First Interim Dividend | RM 0.1000 |
|
| 28-Feb-2020 | 13-Mar-2020 | DIVIDEND | First Interim Dividend | RM 0.0500 |
|
| 23-Nov-2018 | 06-Dec-2018 | DIVIDEND | Second interim dividend | RM 0.05 |
|
| 24-May-2018 | 06-Jun-2018 | DIVIDEND | First Interim Dividend | RM 0.05 |
TAANN or
TA = Great
ANN = Peace
Is a Stock you can just buy & sleep in Great Peace every night with no worry.
In Malay Taann sounds like "Tahan" which means lasting "for a very long time". So can invest longer time.
YINSON (7293)
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
31 Oct 2021
|
31 Oct 2020
|
31 Oct 2021
|
31 Oct 2020
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
820,000
|
2,263,000
|
2,866,000
|
3,602,000
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
166,000
|
183,000
|
561,000
|
422,000
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
126,000
|
136,000
|
430,000
|
310,000
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
98,000
|
101,000
|
336,000
|
248,000
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
9.20
|
9.50
|
31.50
|
23.20
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.00
|
4.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
2.0800
|
1.6700
|
||
YINSON Revenue has shrunk from Rm2.263 Billions to Rm820 millions or a drop of 64%
This qtr earned 9.20 sen
Annualised 4 x 9.20
= 36.80
And price is Rm5.26
Its P/E is 14.29
Look at Yinson dividend
| 23-Sep-2021 | 29-Nov-2021 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend | RM 0.0400 |
|
| 25-Mar-2021 | 04-Aug-2021 | DIVIDEND | Final Dividend | RM 0.0200 |
|
| 28-Sep-2020 | 27-Nov-2020 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend | RM 0.0400 |
|
| 25-Mar-2020 | 05-Aug-2020 | DIVIDEND | Final Dividend | RM 0.0200 |
|
| 25-Sep-2019 | 27-Nov-2019 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend | RM 0.04 |
|
| 29-Apr-2019 | 07-Aug-2019 | DIVIDEND | Final Dividend | RM 0.02 |
|
| 24-Sep-2018 | 27-Nov-2018 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend | RM 0.04 |
|
| 03-May-2018 | 31-Jul-2018 | DIVIDEND | Final Dividend | RM 0.02 |
About 6 sen dividend per year or 1.1% (which is lower than Bank FD rate at 1.75%)
Now while TAANN Is Flushed with Cash Yinson is saddled with Huge Debt
Refer Yinson latest result from Bursa website
Non-current liabilities
Loans and borrowings Rm5,037,000,000
Current liabilities
Loans and borrowings Rm2,358,000,000
YINSON total debt has ballooned to Rm7.395 Billions
That means that Yinson Total Debt is Rm6.94 per share
At current price of Rm5.26 Yinson's total debt is more than its share price
Looks like Yinson needs money to pay its debt load
And for this purpose Yinson is giving Rights Issue to raise Over Rm1.2 Billions Cash (Sweetened with Bonus & warrants to make it palatable) That will be more than Rm1.00 per share
Will Yinson be able to generate "Future Profits" and reward Share Investors?
We have no comment & wish Yinson well
As for Us we Think TAANN is a better Option since Cpo now in Super Bull Earning Trends
Best Regards to all at i3 Forum
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or Consult your Remisier/Fund Manager
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 18 of 18 comments
Taann rock solid balance sheet
From now no more bio mark down and less debt
Dividend will increase
Plus Expect Free Bonus issue ahead
Best time to buy on weakness and hold for rebound
2022-03-02 09:24
Bplant if all land assets sold to unlock full value will rise to Rm5.00
2022-03-02 10:34
Tsh resources has the mother of all highest value resources
It's 4 estates bought 10 years ago in Kutai Regency has now hit gold mines
Indonesia turning Kutai into NUSANTARA the new capital of Indonesia
these lands with book value 20 sen to 22 sen psf now worth Rm30 to Rm40 psf
if all sold to unlock value Tsh will rise above Rm10
possible to overtake even Klk at above Rm30.00
Yes!
Tsh the real hidden gem of deepest value !!!
2022-03-02 10:38
ah calvin,
you start to sound & smell like uncle koon now, using PE to determine future price.
not accurate loh... please discount 50% of your forecast, that will make more sense of your target price.
2022-03-02 15:48
smartly
P/E cannot be fully appied to cyclical as it's earnings not depending on past but future profits
as Cpo has gone up from Rm2000 to over Rm6000 the earnings yet future has gone up by 200%
if earning trend is established then there will be rerating
So we don't discount future P/E as long the bull cycle is on
2022-03-02 16:25
future gone up 200% !!! can Golden Agri up 200% by then ?
i want to whack kaw kaw....:p
2022-03-02 17:06
golden Agri we bought at 14 sen now already up 117%
to 30.5 sen
up side is 83% more from our original purchase price of 14 sen to it can reach 38 sen to 40 sen
Goldenagri dividend about 5.5% if you bought at 14 sen
In Klse Hs plant about Rm2.99 with dividend 15.5 sen gives a yield of 5.1%
Or else Tsh would be a better buy as sale of Sabah lands will Garner 7.59 sen profit and sale of Bulugan Regency land will make 26 sen giving a profit of 33.59 sen which will propel Tsh over Rm2.00 effortlessly
2022-03-02 18:28
Big Funds need Big Liquid Stocks & also Mid Cap like KLK, Simedarby Plant, IOI Corp, SOP, TAANN, FGV, UMalacca, Hs Plant, TSH Resources
Retailers will go for Small Cap like Bplant, Jaya Tiasa, Thplant & others
Later, much later, Syndicates also will come to join the Palm Oil Party
Better get in early while Bull Run is still long way more till End 2022 & possibly into Year 2023 if Cpo prices sustain
2022-03-02 20:12
If we wait, then we got to pay higher prices to join in the plantation stk party.
It is still veri earli for all to join in.
2022-03-02 23:15
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
VenFx
1 article telling 2 sides of story.
1 is in heaven; the other 1 might be letup in hell :)
applause
2022-02-28 22:06