Dear Friends & Investers of i3 Forum

Very happy evening to all

There are questions repeatly asked in Forums & Whatspp Groups

We hope to give some clear answers & direction

These are the 3 Main Questions or Doubts

1) HOW LONG WILL HIGH PRICES OF PALM OIL LASTS?

2) WILL PALM OIL FOLLOWS GLOVE COLLAPSE DUE TO GLUT & PRICE WAR BY CHINA?

3) BEST PALM OIL SHARES TO INVEST?

Or let's begin

1) WE BELIEVE PALM OIL BULL RUN WILL RUN UNTIL JUNE 2023

Why June 2023?

These are the answers

a) Canola oil being wiped out last summer in Canada will see Canola/Rapeseed at elevated prices

See

Prairie drought drives Canada's canola, wheat production down more than 35%: StatsCan

Canada being World largest exporter of Canola oil is down by 35% due to drought.

As a result two things happened: i) Not enough canola oil till October 2022 when the next Canada canola crop will be harvested

ii) The little Canola oil left has spiked up by New world record high of another 84% from USD600 to USD1,105

Canola

1,105.10

By same yardstick if Cpo were to rise in tandem with Canola oil by 84%

Then last Cpo record Rm4,000 will be multiplied by 1.84 = Rm7,360

Yes Cpo has spiked to that price recently! As Canola oil remain above USD1,000 Cpo should also remain above Rm6,000 till October 2022

 

2) Too much rain in Brazil North & Too Dry in Brazil Parana & Argentina impacted Soybean production right now

The output of Soybean has been revised down & down again

As Soyoil also now over USD78 (was below USD30)  Cpo will also be well supported

MAR 2022 ZLH2

OPT

78.50

+0.35 (+0.45%)

3) INDONESIA CURBED CPO EXPORT BY 20% FOR DOMESTIC USE

With a Population over 200 Million Indonesia need Cpo for food & for its biodisel program

With less Cpo on world market & lack of FFB harvester Cpo prices will stay high

 

4) UKRAINE PORTS CLOSED TO SUNFLOWER OIL EXPORT

This is a double Whammy!

i) Current Stock of Sunflower Oil cannot be exported. And Ukraine is a major producer & exporter of Sunflower Oil

Sunflower oil is one of 4 Major Vege oil: The other 3 are Soyoil, Canola/Rapeseed oil & Palm oil

With Sunflower oil knocked out the demand will shift to Palm oil & others. Thus Palm oil being so scarce cannot be cheap

ii) The dislocation of Ukraine Farmers by their migration to Romania & Poland will not see planting this Spring & no harvest in Autumn

THAT IS WHY THE SHORTFALL WILL LAST INTO YEAR 2023 IF EVER UKRANIAN FARMERS COULD RETURN HOME TO PLANT SUNFLOWER AGAIN. IF NOT THEN THE HORROR OF NO SUNFLOWER OIL FROM UKRAINE WILL SEE VEGE OIL HIGH PRICE ALL THROUGH JUNE & POSSIBLY DECEMBER 2023 OR EVEN LONGER

 

5) APART FROM UKRAINE - RUSSIA IS ALSO A MAJOR PRODUCER & EXPORTED OF CANOLA'RAPESEED OIL

NOW WITH EMBARGO RUSSIA CAN NOT EXPORT THIS SUNFLOWER OIL

RUSSIA & UKRIANE COMBINED SUNFLOWER OIL PRODUCTION IS AS HIGH AS 70%

And this Need is Irreplacable. Palm oil, Canola & Soyoil can only do so much

 

6) USA PIVOTING FROM FOSSIL FUEL WILL SEE DEMAND FOR SOYOIL INCREASE BY ANOTHER 10% IN YEAR 2022

One of the election mandate of President Joe Biden is his promise to spur Renewable Energy

So many Fossil Fuel Refineries have been converted to use Soyoil as biodisel feedstock

And this demand will increase by another 10% in a very tight market now

 

7) CRUDE OIL CROSSED USD120 IS ANOTHER REASON FOR USING SOYOIL, PALM OIL & CANOLA OIL AS BIODISEL NOW

SO DEMAND FOR VEGE OIL IS EVER INCREASING IN A TIME OF DWINDLING SUPPLY

CPO WILL NOT REMAIN CHEAP AS ITS PRICE WILL FOLLOW CANOLA & SOYOIL ON WORLD MARKETS

 

8) UPCOMING NEXT FESTIVAL IS RAMADAN WHERE 1 BILLION MUSLIMS WILL NEED PALM OIL

HOW TO BE CHEAP IF MORE AND MORE PEOPLE SEEKING FOR LESS AND LESS PALM OIL & SOYBEAN OIL?

PRICES WILL SPIKE UP AS DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY BY A VERY WIDE MARGIN

THESE ABOVE REASONS ARE ON-GOING AND CPO PRICES WILL REMAIN HIGHLY ELEVATED WELL INTO YEAR 2023

 

NOW WE COME TO THE NEXT QUESTION

WE HAVE SEEN MALAYSIA GLOVE BULL RUN COLLAPSED. SO WILL PALM OIL BULLRUN FOLLOWS GLOVE AND COLLAPSE LIKEWISE?

WE THINK NOT.

DEFINITELY NOT & IMPOSSIBLE

WHEN MALAYSIAN GLOVE SUPERBULL THREW UP NEW BILLIONAIRES IT CREATED SHOCK & ENVY

IN USA THEY FEARED TOP GLOVE WILL ENTER FORTUNE 500 - THEIR WELL GUARDED DOMAIN

USA BANNED TOP GLOVE AND 6 MORE GLOVES DUE TO ESG

CHINA RESPONDED BY SPEEDING UP ITS NEW GLOVE PRODUCTION

SINCE TOPGLOVE, HARTA, KOSSAN AND SUPERMAX MUST USE THE GLOVE AUTO PRODUCTION LINES MADE-IN-CHINA

CHINA COULD EASILY SET UP NEW GLOVE FACTORIES IN JUST 3 MONTHS AND START PRODUCING NITRILE EXAM GLOVES IN JUST 3 MONTHS

MALAYSIA MADE GLOVE FACTORIES COULD NOT BE SET UP IN 3 MONTHS

MALAYSIA NEEDED AT LEAST 6 MONTHS

WHY?

ACCORDING TO HLT, KSSC & XIN XIN ENGINEERING THEY WILL NEED AT LEAST 6 MONTHS TO SET UP NEW GLOVE PRODUCTION LINES BECAUSE THEY NEEDED TWO MONTHS JUST TO IMPORT THE GLOVE AUTO MACHINES FROM CHINA

SEE

 

Thur, 29 Apr 2021, 10:30 PM

And we closed with this warning

Coming up next article

 

WHY GLOVES WILL FACE HUGE COMING GLUT THAT WILL DEVASTATE YOU IF YOU DON'T RUN

 

This evening we will post the Reasons Why

 

Sometime in May 2020 (Exactly One Year Ago) we received 2 Urgent Messages from China

They were asking to buy Millions of Medical Gloves to be sent back to China from Singapore.

We told them to call Topglove, Supermax, Harta & others in Malaysia. Or Riverstone & Ug Healthcare Glove in Singapore.

They replied, "No stocks"

 

So I told them if so good why don't you go buy up the Glove Shares while still relatively cheap

They were not interested in the Stock Market at all. They were desperately looking for Medical Exam Gloves. So they hung up

 

Curious. We thought of starting a glove factory in Johor as many factories there were empty and availabe

But we need to check up what we should do

So we called Esceramic office. Ha! All stocks of Hand Glove Formers sold out except a few unpopular models still available. To buy we must book an order and wait

Then we called Hlt Global and asked,

"How fast could you set up a Glove Dipper Liner set?" And How Much Does it cost per line?

These are the Answers

IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 6 MONTHS OR MORE TO SET UP A NEW GLOVE FACTORY

Cost?

About USD1.3 Millions to USD1.4 Millions per line.

I questioned, "Why you quote in USD Dollars and not in Ringgit??"

They said this is the usual practice.

Anyone could do it faster if WE PAY MORE? No.

So we called KSSC. Same reply

Then we called Xin Xin Engineers

This one not listed so they told us everything.

Xin Xin Engineer also said, "We need at least 6 months to set up new Glove Dipper Liners"

WHY?  WHY EVERYONE SAY THE SAME THING

"MUST NEED 6 MONTHS TO SET UP GLOVE DIPPER LINERS?"

Can't you do it faster? Say 2 to 3 months time?

 

"Impossible!" They replied

We asked in surprise

"WHY NOT?"

Then came the truth

In Malaysia we only make Glove Hand Formers & Glove Dipper Hand Dipper Liners

BUT WE DON'T MAKE THE AUTOMATIC GLOVE DIPPER LINER MACHINES

THESE ARE ALL MADE IN CHINA

AND IT WILL TAKE 2 to 3 MONTHS JUST TO IMPORT THESE GLOVE AUTOMATIC MACHINE

OH! FINALLY WE SAW THE LIGHT

GLOVE AUTOMATIC DIPPER LINER MACHINES ARE MADE IN CHINA. IT WILL TAKE UP TO 3 MONTHS TO IMPORT THEM INTO MALAYSIA

AND ALSO WHY THEY QUOTE IN USD DOLLAR

BECAUSE CHINA QUOTE THEM IN USD DOLLARS

 

See Jiangsu Bailixin Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thur, 29 Apr 2021, 10:30 PM

And we closed with this warning

 

on april 29, 2021 about 11 months ago WE TOLD ALL TO GET OUT OF GLOVE

NOW IS TOO LATE

STANLEY WAS A RM12 BILLION RINGGIT GLOVE BILLIONAIRE WHEN SUPERMAX WAS OVER RM24.44

NOW SUPERMAX IS ONLY RM1.01

STANLEY HAS ABOUT 1 BILLION SUPERMAX SHARES. SO AT RM1.01 STANLEY IS STILL A GLOVE BILLIONAIRES

BUT VERY STRESSFUL WITH HUGE GLOVE GLUT AND FIERCE PRICE WAR FROM CHINA STANLEY IS USING HIS COMPANY TO SO SBB (SHARE BUY BACK) TO SUPPORT PRICES

CALVIN WISH STANLEY WELL. WE INVESTED IN 3 CYCLES OF SUPERMAX AND THE LAST WAS EXHILARATING

BUT CHINA IS NOW AN AWAKENED GIANT AND A REAL COMPETITOR

 

NOW WHAT CHINA COULD DO WITH GLOVE CHINA CANNOT REPEAT THE SAME WITH PALM OIL

FOR GLOVE YOU CAN EASILY SET UP FLATTED GLOVE FACTORIES IN JUST 3 MONTHS AND START CHURNING  OUT GLOVES 24 HOURS A DAY WITH NO NEED OF BREAK OR REST AS THEY USE ROBOTS

NOT FOR PALM OIL

PALM OIL NEEDS VAST TRACTS OF LANDS. 

TAKE SIMEDARBY PLANT FOR EXAMPLE.

SIMEPLANT HAS 3.3 MILLION ACRES OF PALM OIL ESTATES SPREAD OUT IN MALAYSIA, INDONESIA & PAPUA NEW GUINEA

3.3 MILLION ACRES IS ABOUT 18 SINGAPORE (LANDMASS 180,000 ACRES)

WHERE TO FIND SO MUCH LANDS IN CHINA?

AND EVEN IF CHINA OR INDIA OR ANY OTHER COUNTRY COULD PLANT PALM OIL NOW

IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 4 YEARS TO 6 YEARS BEFORE FIRST HARVEST OF FFB & SEE THE FIRST DROP OF PALM OIL

THAT WILL BE IN YEAR 2026 OR 2027 OR 2028 (there is little barrier for Gloves BUT THERE IS HIGH TIME BARRIER TO ENTRY FOR PALM OIL)

HUMAN STOMACHS CANNOT WAIT THAT LONG

SO PALM OIL BULL RUN HAS NO COMPETITION IN SIGHT

 

WE COME TO THE 3RD HAPPY QUESTIONS

WHAT ARE THE BEST PALM OIL STOCKS NOW?

 

SEE

Reposted Article: OIL PALM STOCKS IN Bull Run Time: Those Prepared with Biggest Capacity Will Always Excel More Than Others, Calvin Tan