THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

THE A,B & C of PALM Oil in SUPER CYCLE BOOM TIME NOW ON-GOING, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022, 01:35 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,685
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Investors of i3 Forum,

Happiness all round as Cpo prices plus Palm oil Stock prices REBOUNDING TODAY!

Ok as the Title Implies: A, B & C of PALM OIL IN BULL RUN

Let us explain

 

1) A

A stands out as it is not B or C or even F which stands for "Failed"

Warren Buffet used to say when he is out looking for a 7 footer a 5.5 feet five won't do.

He is looking for a man 7 feet tall while there are plenty with height of only 5.5 feet which do not qualify

What he meant was HE IS LOOKING OUT FOR "A" CLASS STOCKS SO A "B" OR "C" WON'T DO

In this context PALM Oil STANDS OUT AS "A" CHUN CHUN While others like Tech, Steel, Construction, property, O&G,  Logistics, Telcos or Gloves and All Others do not qualify as they are either "B", "C" or "F"

Why Palm oil is "A" CLASS?

See this

Name Month Open Last Done Change Vol OI Sett. Price
FCPO Apr 2022 6,322.00 6,400.00
+150.00
217 9,224 6,250.00
FCPO May 2022 5,900.00 6,084.00
+169.00
1,032 39,976 5,915.00

 

FCPO APRIL 2022 IS RM6,400 A TON

ThPlant Cost of CPO production was Rm1,465

TSH/INNO Cost of CPO Production Rm1,500

With Fertilizer increase let us give a cost now at Rm1,600 per ton

So if CPO is Rm3,200

Profit is 100%

 

If Cpo is Rm4,800

Profit is 200%

 

If Cpo is Rm6,400 (today)

Profit is a whopping 300%

THAT IS WHY WE GIVE AN "A" FOR PALM OIL

Ok Give Calvin a "5" by Clicking Likes button!

 

2) B = BULL RUN TIME

AS PALM OIL KEEP REPORTING QUARTER AFTER QUARTER OF GOOD EARNINGS

Palm oil Stocks will go into a Bull Run soon

At what stage is palm oil

See

John Templeton quote: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on  skepticism, mature...

 

4 STAGES:

Pesimism, Skepticism, Maturity, Euphoria

We are still at middle of Stage Two

Bull Market grows up in the face of Skepticism

Some are skeptical that Cpo prices will sustain. Some think prices are too high

Both are wrong. Palm oil bull will last much much longer as it has no competitor like cheap gloves from China.

No barrier of entry for gloves but Huge Time Barrier to Palm oil as it will take at least 5 years to plant & produce palm oil

Not only that. Now there is a synchronized shortfall of Canola (Canadian Crop failed), Soyoil (South America in drought), Sunflower oil (Ukraine ports closed due to war) So in Scacity Canoa Oil has SKYROCKETED UP

See Chart

 

2004006008001000120001400
19851990199520002005201020152020
1131.0

 

 

 

CANOLA OIL LAST RECORD WAS USD600

NOW UP BY MORE THAN 85% EXTRA

IF WE BENCHMARK CPO RM4,000 (LAST RECORD) BY 85% EXTRA THEN

RM4,000 X 1.85

= RM7,400

NO WONDER FOREIGN FUNDS HAVE BEEN RUSHING TO BUY MALAYSIA BLUE CHIP PALM OIL STOCKS AS THEY BELIEVE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE WILL LAST FOR YEARS TO COME

Now we go to C

3) C IS FOR CHARGING RAMPAGING BULL RUN TIME IN EUPHORIA!

CHARGING BULL WILL COME LATER FOR PALM OIL IN THE STATE OF FRENZIED EUPHORIA LATER

See this

From TSH Resources Forum

Impression

Hi Calvin. I have been following closely your write up on TSH & has invested in it.
In 2020, I have followed your recommendations on HLT & had gain 3 limit up within a week. I also bought Esceram when you announced that you sold at 0.80+ but I kept & lost.
I just need your personal opinion as to when do you think EPF will stop selling most of the oil palm counters. I think foreigners are buying up what EPF is currently selling. I believe Oil Palm counters will shoot up once EPF stop selling to raise fund for the maximum withdrawal of 10k next month by members. Please give your personal opinion. Thanks

14 hours ago

 

Impression

With EPF current selling spree, it is definitely best time to buy Oil Palm counters and TSH has the extra Ong factor with its windfall profit from the land sale in Sabah & Kalimantan.

13 hours ago

 

 

And Calvin repies:

 

calvintaneng

Good morning Impression,

It is indeed just so happy for me to hear you buying this amazing Tsh share.

Yes. The Spectacular Upsurge of Hlt by 3 or 4 limit ups caught me by shock and surprise. Looking back it was over exuberance and I think I was too shocked to sell all at the peak near Rm3.30 from 65 sen buy call. I only sold some Hlt a bit too early and at the top I sold too little. Only when Hlt retraced below Rm2.00 that I finally sold all.

As for Esceramic I think I took profit to go into palm oil at a very early stage (just too early I think. I poor at market timing.)

Now as to Epf needing money and selling palm oil stocks across the board could be due to Epf outsourced buying and selling of Epf shares to Citigroup. Citigroup from USA might not be friendly to Palm oil due to the perceived ESG concern which is unwarranted.

Epf is selling Palm oil the national treasure of Malaysia.

Foreign Funds after leaving Russia are just too happy to buy up Big Time all palm oil blue chips which Epf has been selling like no tomorrow

And it is also an opportunity for us to buy cheap

When we were buying Tsh at Rm1.10 with Datuk Kelvin the boss Epf was selling Tsh at Rm1.10 for an extended period until Epf finally disposed all and Tsh surged to Rm1.79 and now weakened. This is an opportunue time to pick up Tsh on weakness

7 hours ago

 

THAT'S ALL FOR NOW/

SEE YOU AT THE EUPHORIA STAGE YET TO COME FOR PALM OIL

THIS SUPER CYCLE MIGHT LAST FOR 7 YEARS (JOSEPH'S 7 YEARS OF PLENTY & SCARCITY IN EGYPT BIBLICAL TIME)

 

Best Regards

Calvin Tan

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager

 

Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

Thomas Chan Yeu Wai

Didn't know there was a like button.

2022-03-22 14:20

Thomas Chan Yeu Wai

To add, there is a regulatory cap on the supply side (MY government imposed a limit of 6.5 million hectares in terms of size for palm oil) and on the demand side - dont think there is a limit...

2022-03-22 14:25

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

When is the best time to sell plantation stocks? At the point of maximum optimism.

2022-03-22 15:15

calvintaneng

Keep an eye on Canola price chart

Canola oil now still trading above Rm1,100

As long as Canola oil does not fall below its previous world record of Usd600 then Cpo cannot fall below Rm4,000

As Canola oil remains very high Cpo price will remain highly elevated

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/canola

2022-03-22 23:33

calvintaneng

Keep an eye on Canola price chart

Canola oil now still trading above Rm1,100

As long as Canola oil does not fall below its previous world record of Usd600 then Cpo cannot fall below Rm4,000

As Canola oil remains very high Cpo price will remain highly elevated

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/canola

2022-03-22 23:33

calvintaneng

With Cpo at stratosphere over Rm6500 the profit is a whopping 200% to 300%

No other businesses is like palm oil now in the current time

Signs all around point to a sustained elevated performance right into year 2023

This is the best ever time to be invested fully in palm oil and ride the Bull run

2022-03-28 07:27

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