THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
PALM OIL (TSH) APPRECIATING ASSETS VERSUS O&G (KNM) DEPRECIATING ASSETS: LAND VERSUS METAL, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2022, 11:32 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,844
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear friends
We like Palm oil due to its Superior Land based ASSETS Which APPRECIATE IN VALUE OVER TIME
In contrast O&G Assets Steel based will rust away over time
This can be illustrated by Two Examples
YSH RESOURCES (PALM OIL) VERSUS KNM (O&G)
See TSH latest result
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
30 Sep 2022
|
30 Sep 2021
|
30 Sep 2022
|
30 Sep 2021
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
262,652
|
309,074
|
1,024,414
|
860,569
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
294,439
|
65,689
|
490,755
|
169,381
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
296,443
|
53,775
|
474,308
|
128,422
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
258,428
|
45,078
|
412,239
|
105,576
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
18.72
|
3.27
|
29.87
|
7.65
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
1.5071
|
1.1892
|
||
SEE NAV
Was Rm1.18
NOW RM1.50 (Or up by 32 sen)
Just sold Bulugan 32000 acres land for Rm731.09 Millions
Original Cost Rm266 Millions
Profit is Rm465 Millions or 30 sen
2/3 profit received and TSH is giving a nice 8 sen dividend
TSH still got lots of Land
Down south of Bulugan is Kutai/Nusantara the New Capital of Indonesia
lAbout slightly less than 3X (times) the Size of Bulugan land sold but Much More Valuable
If we only take the same price of Bulugan (as benchmark. Of Course Nusantara Lands worth far more)
A simple computation will be
Rm731.09 Millions x 3
- Rm2.193 Billions
Ay 1,388 million paid up shares
IT IS worth Rm1.58 a share
So in Value NAV will rise to Rm1.50 + Rm1.58
= Rm3.08 NAV
If Kutai/Nusantara 94700 acres are REVALUED
Note: Current book value only Rm5K per acre (Reder TSH AR or Annual Report)
KNM
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
Six Months
|
Three Months
|
Eighteen Months
|
Eighteen Months
|
||
|
01 Apr 2022
To |
01 Apr 2021
To |
01 Jan 2021
To |
01 Jan 2020
To |
||
|
30 Jun 2022
|
30 Jun 2021
|
30 Jun 2022
|
30 Jun 2021
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
262,687
|
0
|
1,442,812
|
0
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
-72,424
|
0
|
-790,014
|
0
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
-82,077
|
0
|
-814,349
|
0
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
-74,381
|
0
|
-764,593
|
0
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
-2.12
|
0.00
|
-21.79
|
0.00
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
0.2600
|
0.6000
|
||
KNM Dropped into Pn17
NAV dropped from 60 sen to 26 sen (lost 34 sen)
Above shows Assets Value are not permanent
THEY CAN APPRECIATE UPWARDS OR DEPRECIATE DOWNWARDS
One more thing you must know
KNM IS VERY POPULAR
See
69 people like this.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/800001403
In heydays KNM very hot stock and 69 people clicked likes
TSH is unpopilar
Only 9 persons clicked likes
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/800001682
That is all for today
No buy or sell call
Warm regards
Calvin
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 14 of 14 comments
Most CPO shares are making good profit. This shows despite high fertilizer cost and higher wages for workers, it is still profitable Land is a scarce commodity, so should Sime Darby or BPlantation sells any one of its good location land, it will reap enormous profit. TSH will also later gain from its land near to new Indon capital at Kalimantan bought cheaply in due time.
2022-11-29 13:44
aiyo why calvin talk bad about my KNM. I have both Tsh and Knm. If you make me angry again I will talk bad you like 'See research' and 'Mikecyc'! Hahahah
2022-11-30 15:41
And these are the warning red flags on KGB
1. KGB committed to complete Sarawak Construction project by End December 2022 worth Rm420 Millions
See
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/09/14/kelington-bags-rm420mil-construction-job-in-sarawak
So far no sign of payment except got Rm530 Million Receivables (IOU) in balance sheet
Why KGB not get payment yet?
Is it due to incompletion by cost over runs
CEMENT PRICES UP BY 15% IN EARLY
NOW ANOTHER 15% HIKE IN CEMENT PRICES
HOW TO SURVIVE 30% CEMENT PRICE HIKE IN ONE YEAR?
See
https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1904606/construction-groups-want-govt-probe-latest-cement-price-increase?wref=edgemarkets
Another Red Flag
Since KGB got no payment IT GONE TO BORROW MORE MONEY
Refer KGB balance sheet
Short term loan jumped from Rm29 millions to Rm152 Million or Up by Rm123 Millions
Matter of time due to High Construction cost KGB will go insolvent & later bankruptcy
BETTER SELL KGB
SITTING TIME DEBT BOMB OF CONSTRUCTION OVER RUNS, IOUS & HIGHER DEBT LOAD
GET OUT NOW!
SELL ALL KGB
SELL ALL KGB WB FAR OUT OF MONEY!
2022-12-15 00:28
Correct mah!
How can u go wrong investing in plantation leh ??
It is a perfect hedge agst inflation loh!
U see plantation land is finite cheap assets mah!
U cannot get more loh!
2022-12-15 07:55
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2023-01-05 21:02
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The fact is CPO price hardly go up further.
At the same time cost of production is surging due to
1) high fernitiser price
2) min. wages raise from RM1,200 to Rm1,500
2022-11-29 12:03