THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Three 2nd Liner Stocks mispriced & misplaced as penny stocks: BPLANT VERSUS JTIASA VERSUS THPLANT, Compare and contrast, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 05 Sep 2023, 10:23 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear friends of i3 Forum,


As the title implies


Three 2nd Liner Stocks mispriced & misplaced as penny stocks: BPLANT VERSUS JTIASA VERSUS THPLANT, Compare and contrast, Calvin Tan


We think after Bplant has gone up from 64 sen to Rm1.51 (at the privatisation offer of KLK at Rm1.55) and no longer a penny stock now; the next two laggards; namely JTIASA (83.5 sen) & Thplant (56 sen) now offer best value.


Why is it so?

Answer:

From historical experience in years 2015/6/7 when both Bplant & Thplant were traded between Rm1.10 to Rm1.20 & Jtiasa was the surprise that crossed Rm1.80 then


After that with Cpo fallen below Rm1,900 a ton all these three fell in tandem to the low of 30 sen to 50 sen only


And now Cpo has more than doubled to Rm3,900 all these are slowing climbing back up


For Bplant it was the added booster by KLK offering to take ir private at Rm1.55

If not Bplant would still languish below Rm1.00


Now KLK thinks Bplant is worth at least Rm,1.55 per share


How about Jtiasa & Thplant as they all three are quite similar


See

Bplant has over 220,000 acres of plantation lands

Jtiasa  has 206,000 Palm oil lands

Thplant has over 240,000 acres of plantation lands


And on these lands are planted with Palm oil (their main operating income)


Now let us take a brief look at their last 4 months of FFB (fresh fruit bunches) production


1) BPLANT


BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD (April 2023
52,885.42


BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD (May 2023)
66,530.57
BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD (June 2023)
61,309.77
Total three months 180,733 tonnes

average of 3 months is 60,244 for each month

see July 2023 (result will be incorporated to Nov 2023 qtr)

BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD (July 2023)
67,033.26


July 2023 FFB is better at 67,033 tonnes (yet to see Aug & Sept 2023 FFB harvest)

So from 60,244 ton average Bplant FFB harvest has increased by 11.2%


2) JAYA TIASA (Refer Bursa)

Fresh Fruit Bunches (april 2023)
61,312 metric tonnes

Fresh Fruit Bunches (May 2023)
78,585 metric tonnes

Fresh Fruit Bunches (June 2023
84,751 metric tonnes

3 months total : 224,648 tonnes
average month : 74,882 tonnes

See July 2023 FFB production

Fresh Fruit Bunches (Splendid! July 23)
110,269 metric tonnes
July 2023 FFB jumped by a whopping 47%

And no wonder that Mr. Market chased up JTIASA!

3) THPLANT

Fresh Fruit Bunches (April 2023)
45,024.76

Fresh Fruit Bunches (May 2023)
59,612.94
Fresh Fruit Bunches (June 2023)
59,132.35

3 months total was 163,768 tonnes

Average of 3 months = 54,589 tonnes

See latest!!

Fresh Fruit Bunches
72,297.39
A jump of 32.4%

From here we see Bplant FFB increased by 11.2%, Thplant by 32.4% and Jtiasa is champion overall at 47%

And August & Sept 2023 FFB months are expected to be at fruitful season again


Happy Investing & Best Regards

Calvin Tan


Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager


Further note:

For Jaya Tiasa
With just 74,882 tonnes of FFB average for months of April to June 2023 it produced the excellent result below


SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30 Jun 2023

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR

CORRESPONDING

QUARTER

CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR

CORRESPONDING

PERIOD

30 Jun 2023
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2023
30 Jun 2022
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1
Revenue
199,019
245,464
845,166
810,770
2
Profit/(loss) before tax
40,331
52,750
168,792
200,558
3
Profit/(loss) for the period
60,161
40,972
153,628
134,413
4
Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
60,067
41,010
153,639
134,556
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.21
4.24
15.87
13.90
6
Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
1.70
2.80
3.20
2.80
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7

Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.4300
1.3100

So if JTIASA can sustain FFB above 110,000 tonnes?

Should be splendid result for Nov 2023


THESE STRONG FIGURES HAVE PARED DOWN JTIASA LOANS FROM OVER RM1 BILLIONS TO ONLY RM93 MILLION & WILL SOON SEE JTIASA DEBT FREE CASH RICH ENTITY

In early years of 1970s & 1980s due to strong GDP Growth Singapore, Taiwan, Korea & Japan turned into Tiger Economies

Now we see Palm oil laggards like Bplant, Jtiasa, Thplant & Tsh turning into Tigers of Growth


Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon were fiction but Investing in Palm oil is certainly no fiction.

More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 7 of 7 comments

calvintaneng

From here we see Bplant FFB increased by 11.2%, Thplant by 32.4% and Jtiasa is champion overall at 47%

And August & Sept 2023 FFB months are expected to be at fruitful season again


Happy Investing & Best Regards

Calvin Tan

2023-09-05 22:27

Patient Investor

Cal, have you compare their annual harvest? maybe different company harvest according different timing due to location difference,

2023-09-07 20:43

calvintaneng

Ffb production follows a yearly cycle

Usually 2nd half of year when there is monsoon rain towards year end it will see more abundant harvest and in the early months of another new year there will be less fruit. As such all will rise or fall in tandem but overall yearly production should be still good as palm oil only need 1/7 of land space to grow compared to soybean and corn

2023-09-08 07:59

Patient Investor

Can you share the comparison of tree age between the 3 companies, and how replanting is manage? Would it be upon reaching prime the company will generate very low cash flow for at least few years?

2023-09-08 08:39

Patient Investor

These two years, the rainfall seems to be happening through out the year. (true for KL, not quite sure for Sarawak)

2023-09-08 08:42

calvintaneng

Patient Investor

Can you share the comparison of tree age between the 3 companies, and how replanting is manage? Would it be upon reaching prime the company will generate very low cash flow for at least few years?


1) THPLANT

Due to obstruction by natives on native lands some are not planted. But these are now being slowly planted. However, in Sarawak Pan Borneo highway now passing by Serian and Tatau near Bintulu making these lands more valuable as developments than agriculture

2. Bplant

Bplant got lots of older maturing trees
Now KLK is invited to do replanting and improve production

3) JTIASA

The best of the three as its Trees are now at MOST FRUITFUL HEALTHY GROWTH STAGE

With 110,000 Tonnes per month it is chasing up SOP like a jumping tiger

That is why people are bullishly chasing up JTIASA

However, after BPLANT the next to see Privatisation could be THPLANT

SO STAY DIVERSIFIED IN INVESTMENTS BEST

2023-09-09 00:19

Patient Investor

@calvintaneng What cause Jayatiasa's Land value per HA or per planted Ha significant lower than TH, SOP, TSH?

Is it due to Jayatiasa didnt revalue the land? location of land or other reasons?

2023-09-22 09:07

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