THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

SERBA DINAMIK TURNING INTO SERBA DYNAMITE ; I3 FORUMERS PLEASE BE VERY CAREFUL NOT TO GET HURT, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 04 Jan 2024, 12:43 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Author: calvintaneng    |    Publish date: 

 

Wed, 2 Jun 2021, 12:22 AM



Dear Friends, Investors & Traders of i3 Investor Forum 

 

See this

Posted by Petronas > Jun 1, 2021 6:03 PM Report Abuse 

Serba Dinamik name will be changed to Serba Dynamite.
I think this is more appropriate name now. Hahaha.

 

I saw this comment at 6.03pm. From Dinamik to Dynamite? It sets me thinking.

Better warn all dear i3 Formers to be very careful now less they get hurt

 

And these are all the Red Flags found in this Ticking Time Bomb

 

First see the Feb 2021 results of Serba

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Dec 2020


INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2019
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2019
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1
Revenue
1,815,648
1,360,549
6,014,075
4,528,621
2
Profit/(loss) before tax
227,324
139,118
706,337
544,828
3
Profit/(loss) for the period
202,103
140,248
632,089
497,983
4
Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
202,149
140,883
631,745
496,640
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
5.45
3.80
17.03
13.39
6
Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
1.60
1.40
5.45
7.51


AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.8900
0.660

A careless perusal will show a very nice result

Revenure jumped from Rm1,360,549,000  to Rm1,815,648,000

Up Rm455,099,000 or Up 33.4%

Profit is Rm202,149,000

EPS is 5.45 

NAV up from 66 sen to 89 sen (impressive? or too good to be true? we shall SEE)

And a dividend of 1.60 sen

From all points Results look excelent (on the face value not until )

Not until?

NOT UNTIL YOU GO AND STUDY THE DETAILS IN THE BALANCE SHEET VERY VERY VERY CAREFULLY

Please go look up Feb 2021 Result of Serba in Bursa Website & follow as we explain in details

See this

Trade and other receivables
 
Rm1,865,070,000 (At 31.12.2020)
Rm1,256,132,000 (At 31.12.2019)
 
SO RECEIVABLES AFTER ONE YEAR HAS INCREASED BY RM608,938,000
 
THAT"S RM609.9 MILLIONS (IOU) THIS IS NOT CASH BUT RECEIVABLES ONLY
AND TOTAL RECEIVABLES BALLOONED TO RM1.865 BILLIONS!!!
 
Debts owed by Who? Will they be collected? If not when will they turn into BAD DEBTS?
 
See What Calvin Johor Sifu Taught About Receivables
 

4. RECEIVABLES IS NOT CASH


This was when I bought into Megan Media at around 67.5  cents. From

the Balance Sheet Megan Media showed a P/E of only 3. NTA at over

Rm2.00. It also pay a small dividend.

So many have been tricked by the “blue ray” disc hype touted by

Megan Media Bosses. However, My Johor Sifu stood his ground &

rejected buying into this popular stock which so many others bought.

 

Why? He questioned the High Amount of RECEIVABLES In Megan

Media’s Accounts. RECEIVABLE IS NOT CASH. What is CASH Then?

According to my Johor SIFU The Smart Accountant, “CASH IS ONLY

CASH IF THE CASH IS RECEIVED AND DEPOSITED SAFELY IN

THE BANK”.

Megan Media could not collect those (IOU) Or Receivables which are fake anyway. Finally unable to pay Bank Loan ....

Megan Media went

bankrupt and got delisted. It was found out later that all the Blue Ray

Disc Factories were non existent. RECEIVABLES WERE ALL FAKE OR

FICTITIOUS.

 

Take a look at the Megan Media Result of Year 2006 (15 years ago)

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31/10/2006


INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31/10/2006
31/10/2005
31/10/2006
31/10/2005
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
1
Revenue
238,134
248,323
468,499
497,182
2
Profit/(loss) before tax
18,641
11,150
37,165
26,615
3
Profit/(loss) for the period
15,173
3,957
28,620
16,926
4
Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
15,173
3,957
28,620
16,926
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per share (sen)
7.45
1.93
14.06
8.27
6
Proposed/Declared dividend per share (sen)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (RM)
2.4800
2.3100
 
From the Above Everyone Gone GaGa Chasing Megan Media. But just like Serba the Profits were parked Under "RECEIVABLES" AND NO CASH
 
So many were conned kaw kaw. Remisiers, Accountants also got conned
 
My Johor Sifu did audit. He does not trust receivables but CASH AND CASH IN THE BANK ONLY!
 
 
 
SO SERBA PROFITS WERE NOT REAL PROFITS BUT (IOU) RECEIVABLES
 
 
Look at Cash
 
Cash and cash equivalents
RM836,352,000 (31.12.2020)
RM 1,306,590,000 (31.12.2019)
 
AFTER ONE YEAR CASH HAS DROPPED BY RM470.2 MILLIONS
 
NOW LOOK AT BANK BORROWINGS
 
Loans and borrowings
 
3,127,514,000 (31 December 2020)
2,938,624,000 (31 December 2019)
 
DEBT HAS INCREASED BY RM188.9 MILLIONS TO  RM3.127 BILLIONS
 
 
What Kind of Balance Sheet is this?
 
From the Cooked Up Presentation that look so good
 
To the Horror  Results in the Balance Sheet?
 
Now Let Us Dig Further:
 
 
Where Did Serba Get So Good Profits last 5 Years
In the Annual Report they look like Going Up In a Straight Line
 
How Come Serba Did So Well While Petronas' Top OGSE Companies like Dayang, Penergy, Carimin, Uzma & Sapura Energy were all Struggling to Survive?
 
Aha! Serba got profits from these places
 
See
 
 
For the quarter ended 31 December 2020 (“Q4FY20”), the Group recorded revenue of RM1,815.6 million which was 33.4% higher than corresponding quarter of the preceding year (“Q4FY19”) due to strong activities from O&M and EPCC segment. The gross profit for the quarter stood at RM307.8 million or 17.0% of total revenue. The Group also recorded profit before taxation of RM227.4 million, 63.5% higher as compared to profit before taxation of RM139.1 million in Q4FY19.
O&M contributed 82.5% of revenue in Q4FY20 with an increase of RM338.0 million or 29.2% against Q4FY19.  The increase was due to higher activities from our MRO activity in Middle East region such as Oman as well as Malaysia. The segment recorded gross profit of RM255.3 million in Q4FY20.
 
Profits came from Middle East such as OMAN?
 
 
ICT segment boost its revenue to RM113.0 million in Q4FY20, higher by RM56.4 million compared to Q4FY19. This evidenced the Group’s initiative to expand its operation in ICT business activities worldwide. Aside from the contribution of the existing contracts which is related to customised solutions involving software developments, the increase was also contributed by contracts in  UAE and Qatar for services relating to Extended Reality (“XR”) training applications
 
UAE & QATAR AGAIN?
 
 
 
EPCC revenue recorded a total of RM203.0 million in current quarter, higher by RM59.1 million as compared to Q4FY19, which contributed 11.2% of the Group’s revenue in Q4FY20 . Revenue from EPCC segment was derived from our various contracts in UAE, Turkmenistan and Malaysia. The segment recorded a gross profit of RM29.0 million yielding a gross margin of 14.4%.
 
UAE & TURKMENISTAN? SO OBSCURE PLACES?
 
Got Payment or Not?
 
NO!
 
No wonder must ask for Money by private placement
 
See
 
On 5 May 2020, the Company has completed the private placement exercise, in which the Company has issued 306,507,000 new shares with an issue price of RM1.49 per placement share.
 
Whoever swallowed these PP shares at Rm1.49 have lost 44% By now. Too bad.
 
SERBA will yet need to borrow more money & Place out More PP Shares
But all look bleak as S&P Global Has Downgraded SERBA from B+ to a B-
 
The Cost of Funds will be harder to get. And if get will incur higher Bank Interest
 
 
 
 
 
 
SO PLEASE STAY SAFE
 
IT IS BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY
 
BEST REGARDS TO ALL i3 FORUM FRATERNITY
 
 
Calvin Tan Research
 
Please Do Your Own Due Diligence & Investigation
 
In Doubt Consult your Remisier, Fund Manager, Accountant or Auditor
 
 
 
Showing 34 comments.
gohkimhock  Receivables are classified as current assets and are expected to be received in 1 year period. Customers are obligated to pay the amount to the company. If it is not paid, it will be offset as provision for bad debts. It is correct Calvin.
02/06/2021 6:29 AM
brian3381  means, explosive high risk loh… if canot collect money. all sweet talk now.... talk big la tis karim...
02/06/2021 7:39 AM
Bgt 9963  Hoot9e...!
02/06/2021 8:16 AM
Sslee  Need to be fair the receivable is 90 days if you compare with revenue.
Things I do not like about Serbadk are
1. Inventories: RM 1.667 billion what kind of business you need so much inventories and some more at client site?
2. Acq of PPE: RM 1.04 billion. What kind of business where you spend so much on PPE every year untill cash flow is negative?
02/06/2021 8:47 AM
Sslee  Your story is wrong on Xingquan.
The external auditor is as guity as the Board for signing off the financial yearly report with no red flag raised.
02/06/2021 8:50 AM
Lewis Lee  calvin Tan. I remember your nemesis Uncle Phillips highly recommended it last year and could not stop promoting the company everyday, how is he doing ? dumping all shares already ??
02/06/2021 9:27 AM
stockfreak  Maybe Singaporean is not used to hanky panky.
02/06/2021 9:28 AM
WorldWideInvestor  Wow. all company fake earnings?
02/06/2021 9:49 AM
WorldWideInvestor  Wow. all company fake earnings?
02/06/2021 9:50 AM
Miz Raya Bloom  apa kes, money laundering ka?
02/06/2021 9:56 AM
Lewis Lee  I haven't seen uncle phillips in I3 ages ago !
Maybe he has woken up already and dare not comment here anymore ??
02/06/2021 10:01 AM
Sslee  Dear calvintaneng,
I am glad the external auditors are now taking their job seriously. Those day the auditors and independent directors are as guilty as the CEO and executive directors.

Hence as minority shareholders I encourage shareholders to attend AGM, ask the hard questions and hold the Board and auditor answerable, accountable and responsible
02/06/2021 10:01 AM
stockraider  It is confirmed that raider joke on scenery is really true & no joke loh...!!

Scenery did ask people to buy lapsap lambo at 4.5 sen mah...!!

Furthermore so0hai scenery says lambo worth Rm 1.60 when tell people to buy loh!

ALL DOCUMENTED HERE MAH...!!

INDEED SCENERY IS PROVEN A KONMAN MAH!

Scenery is indeed a konman after all loh...!!

Indeed Scenery actually admitted in his posting below he ask people buying lambo at 4.5 sen mah, thus he deserve to be wallop by Raider loh...!!

This so0hai konman scenery ask people to buy lapsap lambo at 4.5sen, thats why he deserved to be attack, wallop, kick his back side into the jamban loh!

When Scenery ask people to buy it was 4.5 sen, if u follow and invested lambo, now if u want to sell it is 1 sen...u lose 78% of your capital all bcos scenery asking u to buy, so that he can dumped at 7 to 8 sen

Scenery wrote:
Aug 5, 2020 10:08 AM | Report Abuse
dont be silly lah, 4.5 cts is still very low. focus qr red can go to 1.60, why not Lambo? We are figuring on the future of a growing company not gambling here.

Currently the pandemic is still raging and online marketing certainly has a good future. Otherwise Scenery won't be stuck here for so long. Scenery is brilliant!!!

Posted by scenery > May 31, 2021 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

3. My posts on 5/8/20 about cheap price at 4.5 cts helped a lot of ppl who buy 4.5 cts to make a few cts within 2 days on 7/8/20 when it went up to 8 cts. This snake follow buy n sold at 7 cts, making huge profit with millions of shares, Yet she twisted such event as I con ppl.

{ U SEE THIS S0OHAI SCENERY ASK PEOPLE TO BUY LAMBO AT 4.5 SEN...IF PEOPLE FOLLOW HIS ADVICE & INVEST,NOW LAMBO IS 1 SEN MAH.! THIS SCENERY IS A KONMAN HE KNOWS LAMBO IS A LAPSAP, WHY ASK PEOPLE TO BUY LEH ? SO THAT HE CAN ESCAPE AT 7 TO 8 SEN...BRAADY NO INTEGRITY LOH}
01/06/2021 1:31 PM
02/06/2021 10:34 AM
02/06/2021 10:38 AM
Slc1  Thanks Calvin.
02/06/2021 10:42 AM
MG9231  Calvin, Your Sifu casually taught you an accounting lesson with return of a cup of coffee, you can remember forever, a damn good student, why can find..
02/06/2021 11:08 AM
CharlesT  MG9231 is a very smart senior investor. The only setback is he has a retarded student Calvin only
02/06/2021 11:15 AM
stockraider  U see if the fake suppliers n debtors are own by kon directors...they can simply siphon all the cash from serba loh!

How leh ?

1.Simply the fake debtors do not paying up serba for debt they owe loh!
2. Serba just payout to all the fake creditors on the basis of settling their payables mah...!!

KPMG CONCERN & THEIR FINDINGS ARE VERY DANGEROUS LOH!
Thats why kpmg are very concern about their findings loh...!!
Very dangerous loh...!!
02/06/2021 11:20 AM
X
calvintaneng  Posted by MG9231 > Jun 2, 2021 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

Calvin, Your Sifu casually taught you an accounting lesson with return of a cup of coffee, you can remember forever, a damn good student, why can find..


Hahaha!

Coffee not one cup

I can belanja you coffee for the rest of your life on earth

You better believe and accept Jesus Christ now

Then I will also see you in heaven
02/06/2021 11:20 AM
X
calvintaneng  TOP 10 VALUABLE INVESTMENT SECRETS MY JOHOR SIFU TAUGHT ME(Calvin Tan) Article Reposted

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-06-02...
02/06/2021 11:57 AM
stockfreak  If 1MDB suspects roam free, so will the next imitator?
02/06/2021 11:59 AM
Yu_and_Mee  Until real case judged guilty or not guilty, so now still unknown and uncertain.
As of now, there's still risk to put money into this company.
02/06/2021 1:27 PM
Yu_and_Mee  Having say so, we should give Dato Karim the benefit of doubt for time being until everything is clear. Invest or not, you decide for your money because no one give a damn on your money.
02/06/2021 1:29 PM
X
calvintaneng  MMC is Ok

Can give you 20% to 30% at most

Go for Palm Oil Stocks

Can up 100% to 200%

These ones

IJMPLANT

THPLANT

TSH RESOURCES

TA ANN


Don't trade. Just buy and Hold

FGV will beat MMC short term
02/06/2021 1:43 PM
emsvsi  Serba Dinamik shareholders should diversify their holdings into safe havens (Defensive) that are undervalued (Value) and which has shown year-over-year growth (Growth) during the pandemic and unprecedented times

The Top Defensive + Value + Growth Stock is MMC (2194)

The Value of MMC (2194) Senai Airport City (SAC) land alone is worth *RM4.48 billion, more than the entire market capitalisation of MMC, without even including the crown jewel Ports division (PTP, Northport, Johor Port, Penang Port, Tanjung Bruas Port), Listed Entities 37.6% Malakoff and 30.9% Gas Malaysia, Engineering (MRT1 & 2 and upcoming MRT3 - MMC-Gamuda JV)


*Senai Airport City Value
= (2,055 - 11.07) acres * RM24.1 mil / 11.07 acres
= RM 4,478.22 million @ RM 4.48 billion

- Senai Airport land - 2,055 acres as @ 31 December 2020 source Annual Report 2020
- Shengda New Energy Sdn Bhd purchases 11.07 acres of land in Senai Airport City from MMC for RM 24.1 mil in April 2021
02/06/2021 1:46 PM
Petronas  Calvin Tan Sifu, Thank you for your article above.
God Bless You.
03/06/2021 10:08 AM
stockraider  The bond prices is always a good forward indicators of the future financial health of the company, In serba case base on the bond price the future look pessimistic & dire loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jun 3, 2021 10:45 AM | Report Abuse X

Whats that tell U on Serba bond price with a sell quotation on 0.45 when the bond maturity is on 2022, with a par value of 1.00.?

That means high chance that Serba will go bankrupt mah...!

But still investing in Serba bond is still a better preposition of holding on or buying into serba shares loh!


https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/bond-factsheet/XS2089155761

Is this the one?

Indicative Ask Price 45
Indicative Bid Price 29.91

If so quite a big gap...seems highly illiquid


I admire Philip for his decisive and fast action in selling Serbadk and buy Serbadk US bond mature on 2022.
Philip is looking at multibagger when serbadk redeem the US bond mature in 2022.

If their books are cooked n his political connection cant save his ass then the Bond may be cooler than water

Anyway Philip will earn big on the Bond if Karim can do a magic lah

High risk high rewards
03/06/2021 10:50 AM
Michael Kwok  It got discrepancies in the number one of the account.Is not the total total number.So is easier to identify compare with total number.Will take next month to solve it.
03/06/2021 11:20 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand)  NETX is the better investment right?
03/06/2021 5:20 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand)  I prefer to talk less and let my long term portfolio results do the talking for me. As for SCOMI+NETX+TALAMT mastermind? I rest my case.

>>>>>>>
Lewis Lee I haven't seen uncle phillips in I3 ages ago !
Maybe he has woken up already and dare not comment here anymore ??
02/06/2021 10:01 AM
03/06/2021 5:21 PM
X
calvintaneng  Hahaha

Laugh until bei tahan

How come only 3?

Calvin picked these also

Supermax at Rm1.73 and sold over Rm20.00

Petronas Ogse bull Carimin 39 sen, Penergy, Uzma and Naim at 60 sen. All up 100% to 300%

Mtag 38 sen
Esceramic 32 sen
Hlt global at 65 sen. limit up 4x to Rm3.20
Careplus Rm2.00 jumped over Rm5
Adventa 57 sen. jumped over Rm2.00

Vstec 90 sen. Reached Rm2.50

Prestar at 47. Prestar . buy it before it turn into a Star

Prolexus at 54 sen
Mmc 70 sen. Now Syed Moktar take private at Rm2.00

Rgt Bhd at 20 sen . doubled to 40 sen
Ancom 70 sen .
Texchem at 40 sen limit up
Luxchem at 45 sen

So many many Chun chun call

Wahaha
03/06/2021 7:00 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand)  If you pick half bursa, you will get average results. Some big explosions which you downplay, some poor earnings which you push Uber the rug until it recovers, and some which you trumpet across the entire earth when it works.

But how much did you buy?

I thought you proclaims that you sold 8 houses to buy NETX... Do you deny?
03/06/2021 7:04 PM
X
calvintaneng  YES AH

THESE ARE YOUR COMPILATIONS

IF GOT GO NAME THEM ALL HERE ONE BY ONE

See this

A LOOK AT CALVIN TAN RESEARCH STOCK PICKS (AS RECORDED BY PHILIP NOT PERFECTLY BUT CLEAR ENOUGH

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-10-27...
03/06/2021 7:10 PM
takuhara83  hmm i dont think there are really any red flags lah. they just hired EY for the external assessment. the company just successfully thrived over the past 28 years with no issue. same could not be said for kpmg. kpmg is surrounded by many controversies kot over the past years. misconduct mismanagement you name it.
doesnt make sense if serba want to hire EY if they themselves involve in fraud in the first place.
14/06/2021 5:19 PM

 

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