Dear friends of i3 Forum,
They say, "If you don't study history you will repeat the same mistakes again"
So this brings us to share about WCE highway Toll hype
Why WCE?
Answer:
Without Real Collections of Real Profits from Toll (only projected profits) many have gone GaGa over the Toll Hype Story and chased up WCEHld from 29.5 sen low to the recent high of Rm1.19
Now let us study deeper
First take a look at its latest Qtr results
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION30 Sep 2023 |
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD | CUMULATIVE PERIOD | ||||
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER | PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER | CURRENT YEAR TO DATE | PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD | ||
30 Sep 2023 | 30 Sep 2022 | 30 Sep 2023 | 30 Sep 2022 | ||
$$'000 | $$'000 | $$'000 | $$'000 | ||
1 | Revenue | 230,507 | 120,656 | 346,549 | 225,870 |
2 | Profit/(loss) before tax | -29,943 | -48,648 | -62,169 | -69,607 |
3 | Profit/(loss) for the period | -30,413 | -48,892 | -62,882 | -70,096 |
4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent | -24,172 | -41,285 | -50,583 | -55,417 |
5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) | -0.81 | -1.38 | -1.69 | -1.85 |
6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER | AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END | ||||
7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) | 0.3542 | 0.3711 |
Above tells us WCE a Qtr Revenue of Rm230.5 Millons
And a loss of -0.81 sen
Now go look at its balance sheet
It has Rm6.5 Billion Infrar dev expense (its assets)
It has Rm4.25 Billions in loans & borrowings to finance the Toll Road
Although it has Rm230.5 Revenue it cannot show a profit as yet due to
1) High Maintenance cost gone up (Minimum wage was Rm1K and now Rm1.K to Rm1.8K)
2) Material cost up. Cement alone is Rm24 per 50kg bag (Was Rm13 per bag)
3) Interest on Bank loan one Qtr is Rm90 Millons
So after deducting all the operating cost plus high bank int WCE Hold is still in the red
Then why Do People Chased Up WCE shares by a jump of over 300%?
All this is premised on "Future Toll Collections"
So at this time of euphoria they are willing to pay and chase at any price?
What will the Future Earnings be if all the "profits" are fully priced in?
And what if earnings lag and still disappoint like SILK & LATAR Highways?
SILK?
Yes, we made 200% from buying SILK below 40 sen & sold it at peak euphoria at Rm1.18 on 1st, August 2014
All because of the Kajang - Selangor Toll Road Hype
After Toll Receipts proved mediocre SILK price crashed back to now at
0.21 with a changed name to Marine & General
So those who chased SILK at Rm1.18 has seen a lost of over 80%
After all the Kajang-Selangor Toll Hype fever subsided.
Then there was Bina Puri which built the LATAR HighWay
At the hype Bpuri also chased to the peak price of Rm1.27 on January 7, 2011
How come Calvin remembered these dates and prices so well?
Of course I was bullish on both since that time and made money from them
It was a "greater fool" profit on hindsight
Do I want to play "Greater Fool" Stocks in future
Of Course Not!
There were other Greater Fools stock like Fountain View that got delisted
So is WCE is greater fool stock?
No one knows for now. As future is still ahead of us
Only one Big Caution
WATCH CAREFULLY THE EARNINGS BOTH CURRENT & FUTURE OF THE WEST COASTAL HIGHWAY
Only then will Know
Regards
Calvin
Note: I am no savior. And please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence
Be safe. Not sorry
For now Calvin is 95% invested in Oil Palm shares
Dull but very safe and highly profitable
Why?
Answer:
FCPO now
​
COST OF CPO PRODUCTION FOR MOST RM2000
So gross profit is 92.8%
Most businesses only generate a gross profit of 5% to 15%
Rare ones get 20% to 30% gross
Exceptional ones get more than 50% gross profit
To get as high as 92.8% gross profit is just amazing indeed!
Calvin are into 10 Palm oil
Top 4 are
TSH RESOURCES
THPLANT
JAYA TIASA
BPLANT (Buy bplant was 57 sen
After 24 sen dividend cost 33 sen)
From 33 sen to Rm1.55 )LTAT offers is up 369%
Not telling you to buy or sell as Bplant took us 2 years
Created by calvintaneng | Jul 24, 2024
Created by calvintaneng | Jul 15, 2024
Created by calvintaneng | Jul 12, 2024
wow! always thought highways were good biz. didn't know Silk & Latar slaughter alot investors
good sharing calvin!
2024-01-16 21:39
calvin, is WCE got risk limit down or not? scared kena limit down like many other companys
2024-01-18 07:47
Speakup
Hopefully no
Many friends will be in trouble
Please stay safe in 🌴 🌴
Here we have visible real earnings
Safety of capital
Dividends
2024-01-18 08:33
calvintaneng
Bpuri LATAR Highway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zDYq2l-N2s
2024-01-16 15:10