In terms of bank valuations, affin bank appears to be the cheapest now. My valuation is based on (Price to Book) correlated to Return on asset. Banks with high returns on asset (>1%) tend to sell more than book, while those below 1% tend to sell below book.

Total Asset PAT ROA NTA Share price P/NTA P/E ROA/(P/NTA)
MAYBANK 735,956,253 8,567,531 1.16% 6.92 9.59 1.39 14.40 0.84039%
CIMB 485,766,887 5,120,664 1.05% 5.27 6.65 1.26 15.32 0.83570%
PBBANK 380,052,826 5,326,303 1.40% 8.86 20.38 2.30 15.14 0.60900%
RHBBANK 236,678,829 1,817,569 0.77% 5.56 5.09 0.92 12.62 0.83886%
HLBANK 195,007,830 2,217,333 1.14% 10.80 15.38 1.42 15.01 0.79845%
AMBANK 134,767,615 1,420,842 1.05% 5.32 5.10 1.04 11.60 1.01069%
AFFIN 68,886,345 571,355 0.83% 4.54 2.67 0.59 9.12 1.41032%
BIMB 63,145,127 587,751 0.93% 2.59 4.52 1.75 12.88 0.53335%
AFG 54,089,064 496,605 0.92% 3.30 3.95 1.20 11.94 0.76704%
MBSB 43,268,044 180,036 0.42% 1.18 1.36 1.15 29.44 0.36072%

However, one will need to consider if there is an exponential relationship between ROA and P/NTA. Or is it mainly sentiment driving down prices resulting in a mispricing.

KYY is below 5%, but still got 9mil shares.

Close eye hold, so tempting to sell some of my warrants.

It is, they had the 17% drop in the previous year Q2, which was due to the loss of underarmour, which was replaced next quarter.

Then its the syariah compliance thing. The coupled with everyone see its a consolidation trend and would rather buy the hot stocks.

Magnitech people kept saying its a dead stock etc in 2016. it stayed at 4-4.2 for a year, suddenly in 2017 when it fly, everyone sing song about how its a great stock.

Same thing with vs, 1.4 for half a year, whole world talk like its going to end, everyday ask stupid question, when will up, when will down. Now 2 bucks per share. Even before this quarter result out, drop like 4 sen also the whole place ask why drop 4 sen, as if they buy FD like that.

Stop asking stupid questions like why up why down, will it up or down tmr, next week, next month, next year. Its futile to predict short term movement.

Whether or not the price up or down does not affect the underlying business.

Stop polluting with stupid comments and questions, talk only when you have something you feel will affect the underlying business.

Thanks icon. Great analysis as usual.

sentiment, lets stop asking all these stupid why up why down question. Its just market movement, this is not FD.

renewal or purchase of PPE, different things.

Waste of time.

Or you can just look at PBA ( water utilities) at 4XOPCF, no debts.

Maybe

Tenaga currently trades at about 8 - 9 times operating cashflow (10 bil a year). With about 31 billion in net debt. They can if they want (assuming no further PPE purchase or div payouts) , clear the debt in 3 years or so.

Malakoff trades at 1.8 times operating cashflow (2.9bil or less a year). With 13.9 billion in net debt. They can if they want (assuming no further PPE purchase or div payouts)clear it 4.5 years.

Ranhill has 700mil in net debt, and trades at 3.07 times operating cashflow (240mil or so).They can if they want (assuming no further PPE purchase or div payouts)clear it 2.9 years.

Malakoff looks like the better buy.

Every time someone say will drop, i buy abit more.

If you normalize the earning of this company, the P/E is 10-13. 10-13 P/E glove company that is expanding in to contact lens.

OPCF to price is also 10X.

Hartalega is almost 35X OPCF to Price.

Hartalega is a fantastic company, but got until 3.5X more valuable than supermax for every dollar earned mou?

I can wait. No worries. Its only 7-8% of portfolio. Man man lai.

No its not. By every metric, KLCC is better.

CKCS.

The first quarter, i and dolly predicted possibly a bit weak due to rubber wood supply. But we would rather hold instead, since if it was good, sure shoot up like mad.

If you can't bet 100k, lets do 30k/40k. Loser pay lawyer fees also.

Here's what i like about evergreen. You need to be scared if the company always buy machinery to replace old one in order to stay competitive. This is abit scary, esp if it is a significant amount of previous year FCF.

However, these machinery, are for a completely new products, particle board and furniture. Both of which are already related to evergreen's business.

I get where you're coming from, your points have some merit. The fact that most of their clients are from the middle east and that they have spent a relative large amount on capex (still its like total, just slightly above one year operating cashflow) But i feel you are no longer being logical in your thinking, instead, just trying as hard as possible to push your agenda and extracting biased info to make raider and dolly look bad.

The debt is larger than previous years, but netted off. It only needs once year OPCF to clear it. If this is heavy, then what is tenaga 33billion debt and need 3 years of opcf to clear, they always had so much debt but never bankrupt also.

Lol buy more.

Raider i suggest like this, you give them odds, they win, you pay 100k, you win, they pay 75k.

And MUI has a history of not being greedy and giving back money to shareholders. Like PMCORP did in 2015.

In time, it will float.

Lets say i think this company is worth at least RM1 (realistically, its like 1.5), if they dispose assets.

That's about 500% gain. Lets say it will take 10 years. that's a CAGR of about 25-28% per year.

Or, it can just clean up itself and become profitable again, at which point everyone will be rushing to buy in. Lets say it fly to 60 sen in this case, 5 year horizon. Thats almost 300% gain in 5 years or about 35-40% CAGR in 5 years.

Calvin is one of the few value investors here. Since he prioritizes absolute gain not relative gain.

I sold out my stakes at 25sen. Ill be buying in again soon. KKP is not dumb, either way, value will be realized before he dies.

Niki, im looking as well. But you're banking alot on hope and dreams when they are so many other companies out there that is doing well already and not fully priced in yet.

If im right, with the level of debts in australia, us, china, malaysia etc. We should be in for a recession soon. Whatever gains we have in the malaysian economy now is not due to real fundamentals, but because people feel optimistic and buy, and when people see people buy, they buy as well.

A recession is coming, debt levels is way higher than 2008. And when it comes, your turnaround play might take a very long time.

Main thing is the cashflow. They dont seem to be very good at it. Need constant warrant conversion or loans.

In any event, should have no effect to business, ships can still reach qatar, nobody say cannot sell to qatar.

Only thing is qatar purchasing might be soft for the next few months. Due to this uncertainty.

Lets be real, qatar thing only happened for 3 days.

I doubt this will last more than a month or 2. If it does, it wont be affecting the next quarter anyway. I expect this company generate buckets of cash this year and the next.

Having said that, i like the size of it in my portfolio, will not be adding more.

Time to buy.

If we assume that supermax can make 100mil in profit this year, considering it made more than 100m in the last 4 years. Its trading at 13-14PE. With most of the new plants and contact lens business etc not yet kicking in.

Ill just hold. I wont buy too much more as there is alot of good companies in the KLSE. But this one is definitely worth holding say 5-10% of portfolio in.

I remember when i bought Choobee, people keep saying its slow etc etc. How it wont go up. And if im honest, it didnt feel good, seeing people who goreng iwcity, gadang, malton etc making so much money.

About 2 months after the IWCITY fly up, my choobee went up 30%. IWCITY gapped down 2 times from RM3 to RM1.6 killing dunno how many people.

My reason for buying choobee and this is almost the same, severely undervalued, management is making money through div and share increase, not salary. Constant div payouts, low debt.

I'll wait, id rather make money a little slower.

I can tell you this. The independent directors of this company is very good and fierce. Will really chase management one.

I think EPF heard your call.

Close eye buy.

No, idea, bot some warrent, probably buy more at like 55 or less

For every amazon, the NASDAQ is littered with dead and bankrupt tech companies.

Amazon was only a good buy starting from like 3-4 years ago.

Probably sold, no related party transactions

kcc,

No point arguing, why try convince him or to win. Whats the point. Take the time to find new stocks better.

The key thing is to find out if you're right, and if the other person has anything worth saying.

The first point, i think you're quite safe. The second, manmy might occasionally have something worth thinking about here and there, but no need to argue with him.

One thing i dont like so much about this company, is director salaries is so high. If you apportion the months, 2016 director salaries is 20mil. Topglove is only 7.5m

Looks good. Thanks!

Ok, so if we net off the "Net cash used in operating activities" with the "Net cash generated from financing activities". Since loans is in more than one a kind of trade payable for this company.

We basically break even.

Fair enough, let me look abit more.

Here's my question, since 2008, this company have every single year posted a negative operating cashflow, from 113m negative operating CF in 2008 to 833 million negative operating cashflow in 2016.

Since 2007, they have never a posted a positive operating cashflow. This is highly unusual and very worrying.

And it is trading an more than 2 times book when most banks only trade at 1.1 or so.

All term loans and borrowings are bullet payments, which means they must be paid in full upon maturity. This means that the company must obtain more loans to pay off. Since at the current profit of 230m (lets ignore the negative operating cashfow for now) they will need more than 20 years (with no dividend payments) to pay off the loan.

Now we can say that this is a finance company, they take loans to give loans to the public. Fair enough. I can accept a high growth in borrowing then, but, increasing negative cashflow for every year since 2007 (earliest i can get). This is very worrying.

This feels a bit ponzi (probably an overstatement). Constant dividends and rev plus profit growth is covering up this matter. But there must a come a time when the party must stop.

Hey Guys,


One thing im worried about is how borrowings have increased so much every year. As at the latest quarter its at 5.9 billion. One can argue that borrowings is needed to fuel growth, but since 2012, revenue have gone up 2.8 times from RM344mil to RM965mil. While profit have gone up by 2.38 times from RM95mil to RM228mil.

In the meantime, borrowings have gone up from RM1.1bil to RM4.9bil or 4.5 times.

This seems highly inefficient to me, or is there something about the financing industry i dont understand?

One thing i find interesting, the buy rate is quite high.

http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/es-ceramics-aims-double-capex-rm10m-next-year

http://www.smeinfo.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1148&Itemid=1156

These are the articles on the automation and listing to main board. They will move to mainboard by the 4th quarter if they make at least 1 mil.

Im guessing, they were really hit by the rise in material cost. 20 mil in cash is really nothing in the grand scheme of things. You can only open a new production line with that amount. Let them keep.

I think i made an error in predicting the raw material cost, unfortunately like most malaysian companies, their operation cost structure is very opaque.

Im hoping that this is a one off.

Zhangliang,

Bitch pls. If you're a value trader, there is no such thing as stop loss. Sell only when fundamentals change. People like you are the type that sell off airasia when its dropping down to 2.15 and miss the upswing to 3.3. Say you buy at 2.7, when it was correcting from having touched RM3. If like a dumbass, you have a stop loss of 10% You would have sold at RM2.5. Say you buy again at RM2.4, and again stop loss 10%. You would have sold at at 2.16, or basically the lowest point in the last 6-8 months.

No, its not my problem. But i have a problem when a person goes around making himself out as some kind of value investor, sprinkling gems of knowledge for the peasants, as if he had nothing to gain. There is no fucking ethical value investor out there that goes around gathering up thousands of followers, unless he has already built up his position and proceeds to make a killing when people buy it up.

At least OTB and KCC is honest about the fact that they make money from subscribers and that they have already built up their position.

Point out to me just bit of my previous post that was inaccurate. Skip the ad hominem attacks and character assasination, and just point out one bit that is inaccurate.

Haha. Drop due to sharp Increase in material cost and recognition of forex differences.

Hmm, hard to say. The key thing i like about this company is the focus on automation.

I wont be topping up tmr, but i think ill hold.

Well, id like to look at the breakdown of their cost of this quarter.

Zz i sold off 50% on friday. Haha dumb dumb hold bah. its still way below net net.

=_=, eh dun, bo lui to top up liao haha.

By the end of the year.

Dolly, no need to talk so much, let them talk rubbish and spread bad sentiment.

The more the price go down, the more i can buy.

My cost now is 905, if it suddenly drop to 70 sen, laugh die me. Can buy more.

When the next few quarters kick in. We laugh to the bank.

so tempted to clear out the 465 sale queue. But i like the size of esceram in my portfolio d.

Top up abit at 470, cost now is 479 haha. Lets see the results.

Its due to overcorrection.

The guy bolui lah.

Hey Niki,

If you are looking for net net companies. Id take a look at choobee.

Haha my cost at 483. Will probably buy more at 465 if can get.