STC1136, I agreed with your calculation, but disagreed with your reason.

For me, the major reason that cause China Steel Price drop is not because of US Tariff (I think this only cause 30% of the dropping), but is the Inventory that those Steel Traders built up during the winter season.

Traditionally, China Steel Trader will always built up their inventory level during winter season, as they expect after Chinese New Year, all construction work will begin, and demand will come in in huge wave, and they can make a lot money of money when demand > supply.

However, something change this year, the demand after CNY didn't come in very slow, slower than anyone expectation. So some trader that cannot stand the financial stress start to selling their stock at below market price.. then this has impact the entire industry, and more n more trader start throwing their stock at below cost price (i.e. their cost price around RMB4000-4100).

This situation will be end sooner or later, once those traders reduce their stock pile to a comfort level, once more n more construction start work (coz their weather is cold, certain contruction side still havent resume work), the demand will surge above the supply, and price will be back to a comfortable level (RMB4000).

Haha... I loss too much on Digistar d, must talk bad about Datuk Wira.

Everything is good, except Datuk himself.

This guys is an old fox, will eat all the shareholder meat slowly. Two month later another private placement at 8 sen, 4 month later another private placement 6 sen, then 9 month later another private placement 4 sen.... then 1 year later right issue again... after right issue the ESOS to management.... at the end privatised at offer price 2 sen.

Based on my finding, the average Rebar price in USD is around USD870 per tonnes, while China rebar price is only RMB3800 (or USD600). After donald trump impose the 25% tariff, it will become USD750. Then add on the transportation, warehouse, admin, insurance....etc, around USD100 per tonne, then China steel price in US market will become USD850. Which is more or less same as the local steel price in US. That why now China steel price is around RMB3700-3800 level.

However, we can see that US Steel Mill start to raise their price, if US steel can raise their price to above USD900-920, that mean there is a room for China Steel Price to move up to RMB4000-4100.

My understanding of the impact of donald trump tariff:-

1) Short Term, US Steel factory production capacity is insufficient to meet its steel demand.
Once the tariff impose, the retail steel price in US will be increase, the the steel factory profit margin will increase. At the same time, the import of steel will be remain same or reduce a bit, because the demand is there. With the 25% tariff, Donand Trump government income will increase as well.

2) Short-term steel price will reduce, because all business stop placing their order, want to see how low can the steel price go. Once they realised their stock level reducing and the demand is still same as usual, they will place order again, and price will back to its original level.

2) Midle term, once the steel factory have stable profit, they will start expand their production, they will invest in new blast furnace, hire more worker, so will improve the job market. and the import will reduce substantially.

This CNI lost making for so many quarter, but still fork out money to sponsor Dato Lee Chong Wei movie.... Something brewing or something fishy???

Judge from its cash flow, it wont go bankrupt. It still have healthy cash flow, the big losses was due to the impairment losses on its vessel.

Mr OTB, I hope you can stand firm, I support you.

Please ignore all the comments from the old man, he is lonely and got nothing to do. Everyday he wake up check I3 and see write long article to shoot anyone against him. He got no friend, and his supporter also getting lesser n lesser, especially when many people saw his attitude.

Mr OTB, you have been survive in the stock market for so many years, and I can see you are doing very well. So I strongly believe your FA + TA methodology, and I do believe you have better "business sense" than many others.

Jia you!

although I'm not a Masteel shareholder, but after reading Mr KYY critics on Masteel, it really make me angry. This old man really old d, always talking non-sense... Maybe I shouldn't talk bad about him, but I sincerely feel the word he talk sound like a fool.

Someone throw SSteel, wait further n see any good price to collect more.

Yes, edward 123, I also bought SSTEEL since 90sen, all the way till RM2.40, average is around RM1.60, I am also do nothing.

I'm waiting Annjoo to move, once Annjoo move to RM4.30 -RM4.50 level, Ssteel will be around RM2.70 - RM2.80 level.

If ssteel suddenly announce some 10-15sen dividend, then it would be better.

If ssteel suddenly announce bonus issue 2:1, then even better.

come on come on... TP Rm1.54

Wow, this case is similar with the Icapital case, where the London Investment Fund buy a lot of Icap share and wish to kick out the Icap Founder Tang Teng Boo at the AGM or EGM.
Finally, the London Investment loss its vote, many shareholder still prefer the company to control by the founder.
Why? Very simple, because all the minority shareholder know that the London Investment will not run the company for long term, they just want to step in and eat all the meat, then leave the bone and runaway.
Similar to KYY case. I don't think KYY want to run the JAKS for long term (5 - 10 years), he just want to step in, cut all the money losing project, cut the operation cost, park in more future income, then show a pretty result for 2-3 quarter, invite many analyst to write nice report on JAKS with high PE (15-20 times), then sell all his share to public. Then after 1 year, he will announced that due to personal reason or old age, he will resign from the BOD, then u will start to see the earning start dropping, a lot of provision being made, impairment, written off.....etc.

The above is just my wild guess.

After study its QR, I deiced to stop buying LSTEEL, because its negative cash flow make me worry.

Steel price will adjust upward by 1st March 2018.

Thanks Amit, really feel goods to have you share your investment methodology in this forum.

Why Annjoo declare dividend but SSteel dont? I think maybe due to:-

1) confidence on future earning.
2) to pare down debt

For example, you borrow RM300k margin from bank, and you use the RM300k to invest in KLSE, and very lucky you have earn RM60k on Year 2017.

If you are very confidence on your investment skill, you will probably spend the RM60k to buy a new car, travel to oversea, buy a Rolex, because you know you will make another RM60k or more in Year 2018 again.

However, if you have no confidence on your investment skill, you will probable save the money, or use it to payback the RM300k margin loan, because you not sure whether you are going to make another RM60k profit in Year 2018, so better keep the money to prepare for any future uncertainty.

Hua Joshuaayoung, did datuk wira mentioned anything about the RM66mil lump sum payment?
And also, did Digista plan to distribute dividend?

anyone attend the AGM

Amit, what is your view on trend investment, do you categorise it as investing or speculating?

For example, Amy aware that currently market consumer trend like Milk Tea, so Amy closed its lemonade business and start its Milk Tea. After 1 years, Amy see its profit margin for Milk Tea business has dropped, and Amy foresee the next market trend is healthy fruit juice, so Amy closed it milk tea business and switch all her capital to start the Healthy fruit juice business.

In the above example, Amy is investing or speculating?

Very good article and very good example using.

After observing KYY for 3-4 years, my conclusion to his style is:-

1) When he announce he is buying, he already bought a lot, and will continue buy on it.

2) When he announce he is selling, he already sold a lot, and will continue sell.


He is not that kind of old fox that like to talk east do west. He wont announce selling, but at behind buying. So now when he said he is selling hengyuan, you guys better listen to him, don't pretend smart to guess he is try to cheat ppl to sell.

Although I am not sure Chong is a good guy or bad guy, but I feel the writer try to terbalik the entire story... As what I can recall (from previous newspaper reading), TPY is the one who cheat Chong. Initially Chong's Protasco is a good company with good prospect, but after being cheated, the entire company downtrend.

The above is what I can recall from my memory only, maybe I'm right or maybe I'm wrong.

BTW, why edward bro no longer come here to update the price?
Where are you edward?
Highly appreciate if you can come back to update the price again.

u still have 70% cash on hand, nothing to worry.

moneySIFY, last Q where got making loss?

As at 12;30pm, total trasaction volume for SSTEEL is around 1,000,000. Assume average trasaction cost is RM2.00, that mean total value transacted is RM2,000,000 only. ( I guess many investor in I3 has more than RM2,000,000)

BUT.. SSTEEL market cap has drop RM78mil (based on RM0.18 x 443mil share).

Seem very unfair right, someone just sell RM2mil worth of share, but it cause the entire company market value drop by RM78mil.

If tomorrow another group of panic investor sell another RM2 mil worth of share, will it cause SSTEEL drop another RM78mil ?

This is STOCK MARKET!!!!!!

No more CNY celebration, Angpow to wife reduce from RM5000 to RM50.

本人投资了15年，现在还在第7阶段，偏向长线交易，基本面投资。

lchits, 90% of the 66mil have been paid. I believe you will see a substantial reduce in their trade receivable.
Now my concern is why the management want to raise another 80mil, and the proposed utilisation of the 80mil make me worry.

No doubt HY is a very good stock, very solid fundamental.
However, if you are hoping it will rebound or uptrend in the near future (few day - few weeks), possible you might end up with disappointment and hand burn.
On the other side, if you are cash rich, have unlimited bullet to average down, and your holding period is minimum 3 months and above, then this could be one of the best golden egg in Bursa.

Who want to attend? Can help me to throw slipper + expired egg to the management?

Choivo, your theory is very interesting. It is good to see someone introduce new theory on stock market.
However, it somehow seem not not make sense in business world. Especially when you mentioned that the higher the bank borrowing / market cap, the better to speculate as bank is taking higher risk.
You need to understand that, most of the loan was taken prior to the collapse of oil price. Bank would not lend them so much money if bank knowing that oil price will be dropped so much.
Just refer to swiber, kinsteel, perwaja, all of them have very high borrowing, and they end up with bankruptcy.

Ireka wont bring wealth to its shareholder one.. Dont like their management style.

Choivo, your theory is very interesting. It is good to see someone introduce new theory on stock market.
However, it somehow seem not not make sense in business world. Especially when you mentioned that the higher the bank borrowing / market cap, the better to speculate as bank is taking higher risk.
You need to understand that, most of the loan was taken prior to the collapse of oil price. Bank would not lend them so much money if bank knowing that oil price will be dropped so much.
Just refer to swiber, kinsteel, perwaja, all of them have very high borrowing, and they end up with bankruptcy.

Hi Alandrake, the project has been rename to :-

"Centre of Excellence for Engineering & Technology (CREATE)"

You can google it, and you will see a lot of news / picture / JKR seminar held at that place.
It is a very nice building, and all JKR staff like to go there for training.

Edward bro, any new updates on steel price?

Good analysis! Thumb up!

hng33, you always buy when it drop, and sell when it gain back, earn the difference of few cents. As your volume are big, so the difference of few cents could be a significant amount.

But just wondering, if let say after you sell, if the share continue to go up (i.e. from 2.12 all the way up till RM2.80, every day up 8-10 sen), would you chase back? or you will put aside this counter, and focus on other counters.

gcke, based on my understanding, the main reason are:-

1) Many investor and punter shift their portfolio weight to O&G industries. This is my conclusion after have a chat with few remisier;

2) China steel price drop around 10-20% from the peak at Dec'17.

Basically, the Malaysia Steel Industry fundamental are still very bright, just many investor has switch their fund to O&G industries.

Huatar 333, good 1... So many bullet.

进入2018年，钢铁、玻璃(1505, -2.00, -0.13%)、水泥等长期存在产能过剩的工业行业，即将迎来去产能、调结构的攻坚战。

　　为巩固前期去产能成效，严禁钢铁、水泥和平板玻璃行业新增产能，2018年1月8日，工业和信息化部印发了《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》（以下简称《办法》）、《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法》，并自2018年1月1日起实施。

　　1月9日，我的钢铁网资深钢铁分析师徐向春向21世纪经济报道记者指出，与此前2015年印发的版本相比，此次印发的修订版《办法》更加严格。例如，对钢铁业产能置换，文件明确，“地条钢”和落后产能等6类产能一律不得置换。

　　“此文件的印发，也透露出一个信号，那就是2018年的钢铁等行业去产能的主基调没变，去产能的力度不会减弱。”徐向春称。

　　严禁新增“地条钢”

　　中国钢铁、玻璃等行业自2015年受大宗商品寒冬冲击陷入困境。2016年起国家开始对钢铁、煤炭、玻璃、水泥等产能过剩行业实施供给侧结构性改革。在钢铁等行业实施去产能等改革措施2年来，行业市场逐渐回暖，企业的经营效益也普遍向好。去产能目前已取得初步成效。

　　以钢铁产业为例。自2016年初至今的2年来，钢铁业已累计完成去产能任务1.15亿吨，距钢铁业“十三五”规划“削减1亿吨-1.5亿吨”的上限——1.5亿吨目标仅剩数千万吨的规模。

　　1月9日，中钢协副会长、冶金工业规划研究院院长李新创认为，此次文件出台说明去产能工作并不是一劳永逸的事情。今后的钢铁去产能要严守两条底线，其一是严控新增产能，其二则是严防“地条钢”死灰复燃。

　　“在国家大力推进供给侧结构性改革、坚定不移化解钢铁过剩产能、三令五申严禁新增产能的背景下，产能置换是实现严禁新增产能和结构调整有机结合的重要手段。”李新创称。

　　1月9日，工业和信息化部原材料工业司钢铁处处长徐文立指出，“明确哪些项目建设须实施置换是开展产能置换工作的前提，明晰用于置换的产能范围是做好产能置换工作的关键。新出台的《办法》对这些都做了进一步细化和明确，目的只有一个，就是严禁新增产能。”

　　为了避免个别项目“钻空子”逃避置换新增产能，《办法》要求，无论建设项目属新建、改建、扩建还是“异地大修”等何种性质，只要涉及建设炼铁、炼钢冶炼设备，就须实施产能置换。简言之就是“只要建炉子、就要置换”。

　　哪些是可以置换的产能范围？“对钢铁行业，简单来说，可用于置换的产能要同时满足‘1个必须、6个不得’的两大要求。”徐文立解释。

　　其中，“1个必须”指用于产能置换的冶炼装备必须是国资委、各省级政府2016年上报国务院备案去产能实施方案的钢铁行业冶炼装备家底清单内的装备，或2016年及以后合法合规建成的冶炼设备。

　　“6个不得”指：列入钢铁去产能任务的产能、享受奖补资金和政策支持的退出产能、“地条钢”产能、落后产能、在确认置换前已拆除主体设备的产能、铸造等非钢铁行业冶炼设备产能6类产能。这是“一票否决”项，触及其中任何一条都不能用于置换。

　　对于置换比例，此次《办法》也进一步收严。例如，京津冀、长三角、珠三角等环境敏感区域置换比例要继续执行不低于1.25：1的要求，其他地区则由等量调整为减量置换。同时鼓励各地结合实际执行更严的置换比例，推进钢铁工业结构调整。

　　“这个1.25：1，是指每建设1吨新产能，就必须关停退出1.25吨旧产能。”徐向春在采访中解释称。

　　值得注意的还有，《办法》不仅对置换比例进行了收严调整，还强调“未完成钢铁总量控制目标的省（区、市），不得接受其他地区出让的产能。”

　　此前，国务院对天津、河北、山东三省市提出了钢铁产能总量控制目标。有关地区可通过去产能和跨省区置换两条途径，实现区域总量的控制目标。

　　以山东为例，山东省此前公布“十三五”期间要化解钢铁产能1500万吨。而2016年及2017年累计完成任务刚过半，2018年的去产能任务不轻松。

Unlikely to change policy, because MITI policy normally quite stable and firm one.

Does Alliance Steel commence its operation? Or still under construction stage?

Alamak, just loaded at RM2.24 this morning...
Shouldn't wake up so early.

Bro Edward, hope can see you come here to update the latest steel price.

spiderman, can share your point?

Yup, continue to accumulate since RM0.18... Almost every bit I added up some stock.
If it continue up, I will continue to add.. all the way until it pass RM0.30.

RM0.125
RM0.135
RM0.145
RM0.155
RM0.165
RM0.175
RM0.185
RM0.195
RM0.205
RM0.215
RM0.225
RM0.235

Chean Yeh, Thanks for the clarification.