Israel seem to be celebrating with 0.07% of the vaccinated population showing infection after 2nd dose.....

thats a joke actually

if thats true, after vaccinating the whole Malaysian population we will still be having daily covid cases of more than 25,000....thats not something to celebrate on vaccine efficacy i think

With the rising total covid cases in Malaysia, foreign fund have no choice than to flee from other stocks in bursa to big 4 gloves.

Its clearer now why they were net buyers of TG last week while retailers were net seller.

This trend will sustain going forward...

Israel seem to be celebrating with 0.07% of the vaccinated population showing infection after 2nd dose.....

thats a joke actually

if thats true, after vaccinating the whole Malaysian population we will still be having daily covid cases of more than 25,000....thats not something to celebrate on vaccine efficacy i think

1 - 2 years...that is pretty long wait for recovery stocks...

with great uncertainty of a new variant resistant to current vaccine not emerging within this time frame...



Posted by soojinhou > Feb 6, 2021 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

U all r tokking kok. It doesn't matter whether the whole global population get vaccinated, it only matters when rich and economically important countries does, which is about a year or two. That's the sad reality whether u like it or not

current issue with gloves is not affordability but still availability...

anyone not accepting the above are living with irrational optimism on recovery stocks...and unjustified pessimism thinking the demand for gloves will vaporize in an instant after vaccination

Dream on....

anyone not accepting the above are living with irrational optimism on recovery stocks...and unjustified pessimism thinking the demand for gloves will vaporize in an instant after vaccination

Dream on....

COVID-19: Here’s why global travel is unlikely to resume ‘till 2024

Vaccination doesn’t equal liberation

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-in-israel-vaccination-doesnt-equal-liberation-657898

“To reach herd immunity, about two-thirds of the world population – four billion to five billion people – need to be vaccinated. Each person has to have two doses – that is 10 billion doses of the vaccine.”

The unit predicts that the bulk of the adult population in advanced economies will have been vaccinated by mid-2022. Middle-income countries will take until late 2022 or early 2023.

“For poorer economies, mass immunization will take until 2024, if it happens at all,” the report said.

In other words, “we will not have synchronistic recovery,” said Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director and trustee for the Economist Charitable Trust, an independent charity that is meant to leverage the journalistic expertise of The Economist newspaper.

“In the meantime, while not everyone is vaccinated, we will have the emergence of new variants, and it could mean going back to square one.”

.................

The odds of going back to square one with a mutant virus resistant to the vaccine is way much higher than reaching global immunity within next 3 or 4 years....it only took months for the new UK strain and African strain to form.

COVID-19: Here’s why global travel is unlikely to resume ‘till 2024

Vaccination doesn’t equal liberation

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-in-israel-vaccination-doesnt-equal-liberation-657898

“To reach herd immunity, about two-thirds of the world population – four billion to five billion people – need to be vaccinated. Each person has to have two doses – that is 10 billion doses of the vaccine.”

The unit predicts that the bulk of the adult population in advanced economies will have been vaccinated by mid-2022. Middle-income countries will take until late 2022 or early 2023.

“For poorer economies, mass immunization will take until 2024, if it happens at all,” the report said.

In other words, “we will not have synchronistic recovery,” said Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director and trustee for the Economist Charitable Trust, an independent charity that is meant to leverage the journalistic expertise of The Economist newspaper.

“In the meantime, while not everyone is vaccinated, we will have the emergence of new variants, and it could mean going back to square one.”

.................

The odds of going back to square one with a mutant virus resistant to the vaccine is way much higher than reaching global immunity within next 3 or 4 years....it only took months for the new UK strain and African strain to form.

TG with 70% dividend payout will give you about RM1.30 within the next 1 year.

you take that from share price, you are as good as buying TG at RM5.30 now

For its avg PE (long term valuation ) of 20, TG only need an EPS of 6.5 cents per qtr after 2022 to justify current valuation

EPS of 6.5 cents is about 500m per qtr

...........................................

Is 500m per qtr that difficult to attain with 30% increase in gloves output with the COGS approaching 2.4Billion now? REMEMBER COGS is a long term phenomenon which wont subside for many years...


Thats only 17% margin (500 PAT / (2400 COGS + 500 PAT).
........................................................

I opine that this is an extremely realistic (CONSERVATIVE actually).....since this assumes that by end of 2021 abruptly margin drops to this level.

You can watch a video of the briefing below, the part related to gloves begins at the 44 min to 46 min mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCmZR90RPG0&feature=emb_logo

..........................................................

thanks Ben Tan

You can watch a video of the briefing below, the part related to gloves begins at the 44 min to 46 min mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCmZR90RPG0&feature=emb_logo

..........................................................

thanks Ben Tan

well said...

Posted by ChaseBros > Feb 4, 2021 12:39 AM | Report Abuse

(CNN) February 3, 2021. A mutation that could allow Covid-19 to escape antibody protection has now been found in samples of a rapidly spreading strain in the UK, according to a report Monday by Public Health England.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index...


The mutation, called E484K, was already part of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil.

Experts say that aggressive testing, adhering to Covid-19 guidelines and rapidly rolling out vaccines are more important than ever in light of these spreading variants.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Vaccine will not eliminate Covid-19 but hopefully in due time when Scientist understands Covid better. Worst case may be like the flu-vaccine which may require update and re-inoculation every year but then again, there may be vaccine nationalism or vaccine is reserved for the wealthy country since the production is unable to meet the world demand in a short time.

Mutation is inevitable and you wouldn't be safe till the world is adequately vaccinated because a new variant could easily set foot in your country and trigger another unstoppable wave. There would be structural step up in the healthcare system and hygiene.

Demand for glove surpass the availability by a great margin in the next 3 to 4 years, as shared by Hartalega Mgmt and Healthcare Industry experts.

MISC core business

https://www.misc.com.my/media/252887/misc_ar2019-1-value-chain.pdf

Natural gas and oil are resources which are central to our modern lives. We rely on them for fuel, electricity and all kinds of products.

Today, these commodities are transported by sea over large distances to their eventual end users. MISC is proud to play its role in providing maritime transportation solutions to meet the energy needs of the world

According to McKinsey & Co’s “The Future of Liquefied Natural Gas”, Asia is still highly dependent on coal as its primary energy source, accounting for about 47% of its energy mix. Gas makes up about 12% of the region’s energy consumption, a stark difference compared to 20% of consumption in other regions.

“Increasing Asia’s share of gas energy consumption to 20% would add the equivalent of more than 400 million tonnes of LNG to annual gas demand, near doubling the size of the LNG market, ” it said.

“The long-term outlook for LNG is brighter than that of other fossil fuels because of its comparatively lower cost and lower emissions from production and combustion. But to find a true competitive advantage amid a volatile market, the LNG industry must move beyond what were once winning strategies (control of gas resources, reliability of supply).

“Instead, LNG players should focus their efforts on five areas: capital efficiency, supply-chain optimisation, downstream market development, decarbonisation, and digital and advanced analytics.”

“In 2021, LNG regasification projects would gain momentum in the near future, thus creating more demand for LNG.

“Countries like Pakistan, Vietnam and the Philippines are going for regasification in the short to long term. Moreover, the petrochemicals, infrastructure and transportation sectors are becoming major sources of demand, augmenting LNG use in the power sector.

“LNG demand will grow by 3%-4% in 2021 despite global economic fragilities and the pandemic scare, ” he told StarBiz.

In addition, Shan said as more countries are heading towards cleaner energy as part of their environmental efforts, that would drive the demand of LNG moving forward.

“LNG is the future in the global energy mix. According to the latest report from ExxonMobil/BP, oil, natural gas and coal would remain as the global energy mix by 2040, contributing 50%-60% to the energy equation calculus, ” he said.

Meanwhile, ICE Petroleum Group managing director Abdul Jalil Maraicar expects the spot price of Asia LNG to remain high in the near term, driven by the sudden surge in demand as many countries are coping with an unusually cold winter.

Would this benefit MISC?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/02/01/big-lng-boost-for-malaysia

He even denies holocaust... what a level of hatred against jews and blatant partiality towards his own religion

He would willingly sacrife a million non muslim malaysian for this one
Great pretender..

I have said this long ago...he was the bast**d who killed PH

recommend i mean

seldom we see sifu come and promote nowadays...this we have to appreciate

exactly

Posted by JohnFarmer458 > Jan 5, 2021 10:33 PM | Report Abuse

Those oil shorters are getting caught the same as those shorting glove

The cleanest fossil fuel is set for a rebound

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/773101/the-cleanest-fossil-fuel-is-set-for-a-rebound

its ok if you dont participate...but do let us know where your bets are.. :)

@yistock....beautiful wise words from you . thank you

top 2...hengyuan, jaks...shows how 'surface level' analyst retail investors are...and they are flooded here

airasia really depends on this vaccine ability to eliminate the cases...may be possible by year end

supermax...should shine anytime soon...when market realize it would take years for asp rise to dampen

Higher target price for Dayang on recovery theme

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/12/25/higher-target-price-for-dayang-on-recovery-theme

No Christmas joy for US jet fuel

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/12/25/no-christmas-joy-for-us-jet-fuel

Kenanga maintains 'outperform' on Dayang

TheStar Thu, Dec 24

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/770145/kenanga-maintains-outperform-on-dayang

The research house mantained "outperform" on Dayang and raised its target price to RM1.35 from RM1.20 previously with no change to its FY20-21 numbers.

thanks for all the effort sslee...amazing energy you have

another factor to note is the jet fuel crack spread....

till all the flights resume, margin on this product would be very low, unlike gasoline and diesel with land and sea transport demand

jet fuel is an inevitable product of refinery when you produce gasoline and diesel, but there are no consumers presently

hibiscut? enak rasa biskutnya...

well said sifu sslee, i concur

its a fake fundamental that retailers are chasing

in a nut shell....hengyuan is like a glass bead thats sparkling with rising sunlight - oil price....masking itself like a diamond for those naive..

real diamonds are there, look for it instead

infact like sifu sslee pointed out refining margin currently is razor thin ..cant even break even to positive PAT considering their cost of production and overhead costs

high oil price does not benefit refining margin, but 'rising' oil price benefits momentarily on stock gain, its non recurring and it reverses when oil price comes down

High oil price purely and significantly... benefits upstream, O&G service and maintenance players only

VenFx, the moment Brent touched 50, O&G stocks should have exploded upwards...

If current Brent price sustains, rise of O&G stocks is inevitable

OPEC will not increase output till there is a clear demand rise, but price is forward looking

Oil price shooting like this, they cannot suppress Serba for too long.

Its like ticking time bomb..

Petronas Carigali likely to farm out more jobs

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/767451/petronas-carigali-likely-to-farm-out-more-jobs

“Our ‘outperform’ call is premised on Uzma’s recovery play. Being an integral upstream services provider, any factors leading to an increase in oil demand, such as positive news flow on Covid-19 vaccine developments, will bode well for the stock’s trading sentiment, ” it said.

Kenanga maintains 'outperform' on Uzma

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/767921/kenanga-maintains-outperform-on-uzma

KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga Research has maintained "outperform" on Uzma Bhd given the recent contract wins, and expectations of further wins moving forward.

Uzma yesterday announced a RM130mil contract by Petronas Carigali for the provision of portable water injection modules, with a tenure of 12 years.

THe contract was the third in December alone, with a previous contract awarded in June for teh Sepat platform.

"We are positive on the win as this showcases UZMA’s class-leading competencies.

"Additionally, a long-term contract of similar nature is fairly rare in this space, further proving the client’s confidence in UZMA, as well as being able to enhance the group’s long-term earnings visibility," said Kenanga.

Including the latest wins, Uzma's order book stands at about RM1.6bil.

Kenanga expects gross margins for the contract to be 30% to 35%, broadly in line with the group's average.

Uzma has submitted a bid book of over RM1bil, while management targets its bid book to grow more than RM2.5bil in the coming months in preparation for additional job bids.

"This is encouraging as it signals the presence of opportunities despite the challenging environment.

"Of the submitted bids, management guides that roughly half has a 70% chance or better at winning, displaying its confidence in further contract wins to come," said Kenanga.

The research house raised its target price to 72 sen from 64 sen previously as it sees the recent contract wins as a rerating catalyst, raising its ascribed valuations to 0.45x from 0.4x previously.

Structural underinvestment in oil and gas will put upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs’ commodities chief Jeffrey Currie told CNBC this week, commenting on commodity markets.

All markets except wheat, Currie noted, are in a deficit, and this is certainly bullish for prices. But what he calls structural underinvestment also has its part to play for the future of prices. This is particularly true for oil, where the underinvestment is not just motivated by the price rout but by the shift towards renewable energy investments.

This shift, however, may stimulate short-term demand for oil, Currie also noted, expecting it to rise over the next few years as so-called green infrastructure is being built. Afterward, as this infrastructure starts operating, there will be a negative impact on oil demand and, likely, prices.

Oil started this week with a gain as the United States began vaccinating its frontline workers, but by the end of trade, prices were on the decline again as worry about excessive supply outweighed the positive news about the vaccines.

A supply and demand update from OPEC also weighed on prices, as the cartel revised down its forecast for oil demand for this year and next. In addition, Baker Hughes’ latest rig count report for the U.S. showed the most rig additions since January, fueling the oversupply worry. On top of it all, Libya has continued to boost its production, with the average daily hitting 1.28 million bpd this month, up from 1.25 million bpd at the end of November.

Despite the current challenges, Goldman is bullish on oil, expecting Brent to average $65 a barrel next year. The investment bank cited mass vaccinations and the limited increase in production from OPEC+ as factors driving the favorable trend.

Oil inventories are also declining thanks to strengthening demand from Asia, which has added to the general optimism about oil prices next year.

Goldman Turns Bullish On Oil: Sees $65 Brent In 2021

By Irina Slav - Dec 15, 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Turns-Bullish-On-Oil-Sees-65-Brent-In-2021.html

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uzma-bags-rm200m-contract-extension-petronas-carigali

Uzma bags RM200m contract extension from Petronas Carigali

The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022, according to Uzma's stock exchange filing today.


“We believe the award is timely, as it will enable Uzma Group to continue to support the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector at a time when improving global oil prices and sentiment will lead to higher production demand, especially from existing brownfields,” he added.

Uzma bags RM200m contract extension from Petronas Carigali

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uzma-bags-rm200m-contract-extension-petronas-carigali

The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022, according to Uzma's stock exchange filing today.

“We believe the award is timely, as it will enable Uzma Group to continue to support the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector at a time when improving global oil prices and sentiment will lead to higher production demand, especially from existing brownfields,” he added.

Uzma bags RM200m contract extension from Petronas Carigali

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uzma-bags-rm200m-contract-extension-petronas-carigali

The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022, according to Uzma's stock exchange filing today.


“We believe the award is timely, as it will enable Uzma Group to continue to support the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector at a time when improving global oil prices and sentiment will lead to higher production demand, especially from existing brownfields,” he added.

Uzma bags RM200m contract extension from Petronas Carigali

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uzma-bags-rm200m-contract-extension-petronas-carigali

The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022, according to Uzma's stock exchange filing today.


“We believe the award is timely, as it will enable Uzma Group to continue to support the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector at a time when improving global oil prices and sentiment will lead to higher production demand, especially from existing brownfields,” he added.

Uzma bags RM200m contract extension from Petronas Carigali

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/uzma-bags-rm200m-contract-extension-petronas-carigali

The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022, according to Uzma's stock exchange filing today.


“We believe the award is timely, as it will enable Uzma Group to continue to support the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector at a time when improving global oil prices and sentiment will lead to higher production demand, especially from existing brownfields,” he added.

this was the biggest scam in Bursa 2020

Posted by Sslee > Dec 15, 2020 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

Haha his next article "Security Commission should investigate my articles on AT - Koon Yew Yin

this company never failed to maintain its earnings even under covid 19 pandemic peak in middle east - it really shows maintenance are mandatory activity unaffected by the pandemic or the oil price

price depression is purely due to sentiment and the huge debt factor

why worry on debt when earnings is intact and growing

and now that the oil price and demand is to pick up going forward with vaccine