after a month, the infection outside China is barely 170......98% of these are direct visitor from Wuhan...

That means the spread rate outside China is 0.02%!!

..................

thats definitely lesser than common flu rate

Note: the infection cases we are seeing in China are the result asymptomatic cases which are only surfaces during the incubation period of 14 days..

the actual virus is reported to be spreading in china since october 2019 last year and it did not originate from wuhan market alone..

so what we are seeing (2k cases per day) are long infected cases which are just surfacing...they are not the current rate of infection in china

see how the number appears after another week

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > Feb 2, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

Probability! Yeah, i read about this! But what if coronavirus cannot be contained! Then it would be much worst that common flu! Maybe i am started to get panicky! Just my 1 cent!

Relax! Coronavirus is Less Dangerous Than the Flu, Says Epidemic Expert

January 31, 2020

All the panic surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus is misplaced. According to experts you should be worried more about the common flu.

https://www.ccn.com/relax-coronavirus-is-less-dangerous-than-the-flu-says-epidemic-expert/

The world is a state of fear after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a global emergency but one epidemic expert claims it's no more dangerous than the common flu.

The flu is more dangerous than the Wuhan coronavirus, according to experts.

In the U.S., 6.7% of deaths occurring during the week ended Jan. 18 were attributed to pneumonia and influenza.

So far, 2019-nCoV has largely affected the aged and the infirm.
The danger posed the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is not as lethal as media reports would have you believe, according to an expert.

According to a researcher and epidemic expert at the Oslo Metropolitan University, Svenn-Erik Mamelund, Coronavirus should not be a cause of panic [yg.no]:

People who aren’t usually anxious about the flu probably don’t need to be so concerned about the Corona virus either.

Affecting Mostly The Old With Underlying Diseases.

Per Mamelund, the demographic most likely to die from coronavirus consists of old who have other underlying diseases. Unofficial data from British and Chinese researchers showed that 39 out of 41 deaths blamed on Wuhan coronavirus were in people aged above 50 years [Quartz] . This is not vastly different from the flu which claims mostly senior citizens.

In the U.S., for instance, during the 2017/2018 influenza season, 83% of the deaths

Flu Will Kill More People Than Wuhan Coronavirus

Other experts have echoed Mamelund’s view. Vanderbilt University Medical Center’s preventive medicine and health policy professor, Dr. William Schaffner, recently told Kaiser Health News that “coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon” [Kaiser Health] compared to the flu.

Sheridan Memorial Hospital’s chief medical officer Dr. John Addlesperger, shares the same view that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu [Sheridian Memorial] noting that influenza killed 35,000 people in the U.S. last year.

An emergency physician with the Hospital Corporation of America, Dr. Cole Sondrup, stated that the Wuhan coronavirus will be less fatal than the flu:

My guess is when the season is over coronavirus will have killed far fewer people than influenza.

Not The Time To Throw Caution To The Wind Though

That said, there is a lot that is unknown about the Wuhan coronavirus. The respiratory disease’s incubation period is also a cause of concern. The period can range from two days to up to two weeks. This allows it to spread undetected through person-to-person contact. Consequently, countries that have repatriated their citizens from the coronavirus hot zone are keeping their nationals in isolation for a number of days as a precautionary measure. France has, for instance, set a 14-day isolation period

Additionally, no vaccine for the Wuhan coronavirus has been developed yet. Thus the only method of containing its spread is physical containment.

sifu DK66 nailed it perfectly
.............................

spend a moment to think:

how painstakingly the workers built the plant, the risk they took during construction walking on plain I-beams, the toxic fumes of welding they breathed in, the sweat under the hot sun....for years...

the RM 8 Billion spent over the last 4 years and the pain Andy took finding a suitable partner 3 years ahead to enable a successful deal...

dont wash it away...

merely due to a virus fear with a fatality rate of 2%...passive smoking kills 660,000 people a year...and no one talks of the dangers & its prevention...this virus wont even kill a thousand this year.

when the plant is about to generate 600 Megawatts just a month away


Posted by DK66 > Feb 1, 2020 8:06 PM | Report Abuse

Everything including the chart, the price, the market, the coronavirus is uncertain, only the power plant is real and certain to operate in 2020. Choose wisely what to believe. Virus can spread disease and human can spread fear.

Do not believe anyone in i3, make your own decision.

Coronavirus: when winter comes, spring is never far behind

A letter from the Chinese embassy to the UAE on co-operation, compassion and courage

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/coronavirus-when-winter-comes-spring-is-never-far-behind-1.972541

The situation is still serious. The novel coronavirus spreads quickly and has a relatively long incubation period, and this means the number of confirmed cases in China is still increasing. But at the same time, we need to be aware that its fatality rate is lower than Mers, Sars or even influenza. With the positive impacts of China’s measures rolling in, many experts predict that a turning point may come soon. Cities are in lockdown and grid management systems are in place to restrict movements. Medical teams from across the country coming to the Hubei province’s aid, donations and supplies are arriving in affected areas daily and new, specialised hospitals are nearly complete after only 10 days of construction. Thus far, 243 patients have been cured and discharged from Chinese hospitals, including an 80-year-old senior citizen. All of this is inspiring news. China is confident, capable and sure to win this war against the novel coronavirus outbreak.

.........................

Walao...even 80 year old got cured!

to me, there is an imminent danger that the fear will subside rapidly......

as i think we are the climax of the fear level now...i cant see it peaking further after monday...

as such i cannot see this as a sustained trend with a momentum in it...

there is not much mass in it to carry any momentum

provided you can time better than market..he he

you can already see the death rate starts to decline now...its not rising as much a the infection rise day by day...even 75,000 the max fatality is only 1500...so be it...

market will be quick to react...the current fear is only how china market will react on Monday...

by Tuesday...all fear will vaporize...

the best news is when fatality rate becomes under control and start to standstill...

then virus fear will definitely be OVER
........................

Its just a Chess game to check-mate the Crown-king (Coronavirus_

The fatality rate is just 2% and it needs close proximity of 2 meters to transmit (meaning only close contact).

Now the only headache from this virus is the asymptomatic incubation period of 14 days...

Once you physically block people away by 2 meters for 14 days, you basically eliminate chances of transmitting.

............

and thats what all these countries (US & Singapore) are doing after the greenlight from WHO....to avoid unnecessary psychological headache for months ahead in their own countries.

Better to suffer 14 days by making this draconian separation...then living with it later forever...

International scientist saying China had been way more transparent compared during SARS time by sharing the genetic codes of the virus immediately...

If you see the no. of infection outside china and determine the infection percentage of those who came out of wuhan before the lock down and extrapolate to the wuhan population...the number of infection cases being reported by China is tallying.

Since it takes 14 days (incubation period) for asymptomatic patients to show signs...we will know the true extent of infection within a week..calculating from 23rd Jan.

The final figure (within next week) will be likely double the amount discovered presently...and then would likely reach a plateau.

Its likely that China would impose the lockdown till the no. of new cases reaches the plateau. (Mid of Feb)

......

I see no surprises...and nothing is being hidden

i think investors are not afraid of the coronavirus outside china...its more of the global economic implication of china lock-down on its business activity...

the total new cases will reach a plateau within a week....as the count rise we are seeing currently are those that took place earlier before the lock-down/preventive measures...

also at high humidity level the virus has to compete with H20 molecules in order to get attached to the nasal mucus membranes and lungs alveolus sites to infect....

Indonesia despite having 270 Million population and likely more workers working abroad and mainland chinese within the country...recorded nil patients.

This is a stark difference to Germany where asymptomatic infection took place across person to person in 3 stages even before the first victim showed symptoms.

............

Definitely humidity plays a significant role on the spread-ability of the virus. Hotter climate close to the sea like Indonesia...ensures high humidity level. And high humidity is definitely preventing novel coronavirus ability to float for spreading which can only take place within a circumference of 2 meter (just 6 feet!) before it drops to the ground.


Southern Philippines is also similar climate and thus the cases there is also very low.

Researchers make strides in race to create coronavirus vaccine

International teams accelerate efforts to find effective immunisation method

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/01/researchers-make-strides-in-race-to-create-coronavirus-vaccine

when oil price drop due to global economic concern, RM will weaken....

this means cheaper coal price (higher incentive for EVN to raise thermal power plant utilization rate) and higher cash flow in terms of RM converted from USD...

Utility sector should be where the investors flock too..

market will eventually realize this

http://haiduongtv.com.vn/xem-tin-tuc/thuong-truc-tinh-uy-tham-chuc-tet-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-96587.html

Provincial Party Committee acknowledged that the investor complied with the commitment in June 2020 that will operate commercially, connect to the national grid of generating set No. 1 and reaffirm


http://tinhuyhaiduong.vn/news/Pages/new.aspx?ItemID=1749


According to the report of the General Director of the Group, the Plant has now completed Unit 1, and is expected to put into operation and generation by March 2020.

................

From the above two links, it should be clear that Unit 1 which is completed will be on operation for electricity generation by March 2020 with a buffer of 2 months (for any teething issues when connecting to the grid) to meet the committed deadline of June 2020.

Coronavirus: Why the latest coronavirus will struggle to survive

While the virus has caused alarm now, one expert believes it will struggle to survive in the summer months.

Jan 31, 2020

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1233100/coronavirus-outbreak-countries-where-is-coronavirus-travel-advice

The coronavirus has come at a difficult time for health officials, who may be struggling to contain the human-to-human transmission in the cold winter conditions.

Winter serves as an ideal breeding ground for viruses which have achieved the ability to spread between people, as they are more stable in cold air, and low humidity helps them to “float” for longer.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “Warm weather is not favourable conditions for the coronavirus.

“Other types of coronavirus infection is usually what gives a cold.

“Colds are more frequent in the wintertime as cold temperatures cool down the membrane on the nose which makes it easier for the virus to enter the body.”

...........

no wonder Malaysia is relatively immune under high humidity...

chances of spreading under hot weather is way lesser

yes Icon, i thought of the same thing earlier...hopefully it does

I think once they establish a Rapid-Diagnostic to even detect asymptomatic cases....

this coronavirus pandemic will be fully under control as this will almost completely eliminate chances of it further spreading.

Lets hope this will take place soon....

Home-based isolation.
....................

A system could immediately be established to take test samples from patients with concerning symptoms who are not severely ill and then send them home with protective respirator masks, instructions on hand-washing to prevent the further spread of the disease, and orders to remain at home until the test results come back. If hospital beds are still limited, patients found to be positive who aren’t severely ill could remain isolated and be treated at home and be only hospitalized if their condition worsens. This approach could preserve precious hospital capacity for those who need it most and prevent people who turn out not to have the disease from being infected in hospitals while awaiting laboratory results.


Rapid diagnostics.
...................

Another measure that could prove essential is the development of rapid, “point-of-care” diagnostic tests that do not require specialized equipment or technicians and can provide results within minutes. (They are similar to the glucometers used by diabetics to monitor their blood sugar.) Such tests do not yet exist for 2019-nCoV. But they could be developed and manufactured for use within months as opposed to the year or more it would likely take to develop and test vaccines for safety.

Similar to the way U.S. hospitals use rapid-screening swabs during flu season, these tests could be widely used at hospitals, checkpoints, and even households to screen anyone who develops suspicious symptoms or, if asymptomatic transmission proves possible, used to test every person every few weeks to ensure no one is unknowingly spreading the virus. Those screened positive should still undergo laboratory testing for confirmation. If used widely, rapid tests could also uncover unknown hotspots and help determine the full extent of this epidemic.

In previous epidemics, there was hesitance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and others to use such tests because of concerns they are not as accurate as laboratory testing. For example, such tests existed during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic but may not have been deployed because, compared to laboratory testing, they were not as accurate.

However, had they been used for first-line screening with confirmatory laboratory testing done on those found positive, they could have enabled more infections to be detected quickly and drastically reduced the number of patients needing laboratory testing. One study showed that they could have reduced the extent of the epidemic by a third, and another study had even more dramatic results. Thanks to advancing technology, these tests are becoming increasingly accurate; in the case of some pathogens, they are almost as good as laboratory-based tests for detecting infection.

The 2019-nCoV epidemic is evolving by the hour. We need to move swiftly to respond to this threat.

What Will It Take to Stop Coronavirus?

https://hbr.org/2020/01/what-will-it-take-to-stop-coronavirus

Contact tracing
...............

People who have been around someone with a confirmed infection should be identified and monitored. If they develop any symptoms, they should be isolated and treated until laboratory testing can be done to determine if they have 2019-nCoV.

Screening with clinical case definition.
.......................................

Because there are likely many unreported cases, we need to use a clinical case definition, a checklist of symptoms and risk factors suggestive of infection, to screen people not known to be contacts of infected people but who have concerning symptoms. Because 2019-nCoV, like SARS, causes such ubiquitous symptoms, a case definition includes whether patients with these symptoms have been in an area with known transmission or around people who have. Those who screen positive should be isolated and treated until tested and, if positive, quarantined until they are no longer capable of transmitting infection.

These strategies are already being implemented. However, if it turns out that asymptomatic transmission — transmitting the disease by someone who displays no symptoms — is possible, all contacts and people who have been exposed to areas with known transmission would also need to be tested, regardless of whether they show any signs of illness. This is not currently being done.

These approaches may suffice to contain the spread of 2019-nCoV in countries, such as the United States, where there have been only a few cases (all with links to recent travel to affected parts of China) and in places yet to be affected. However, in affected parts of China where transmission is already widespread, these strategies will face major challenges in containing the spread of the virus.

Since virtually anyone living in an area of transmission could have been exposed, any of the thousands who develop a fever or a cough each day need to be isolated and treated while awaiting laboratory testing. This does not appear to be happening in the Chinese lockdown zones where hospitals, some of which cannot even test for 2019-nCoV, are overrun and patients are being turned away without being tested.

Chinese authorities are setting up screening checkpoints throughout the country. In the city of Wuhan, the epidemic’s epicenter, they are rapidly building two large hospitals with a combined total of 2,300 beds for isolating, testing, and treating 2019-nCoV; they hope to have the hospitals operational within two weeks. But 2019-nCoV may have already spread so extensively that even 2,300 beds might not be enough in a city of 11 million.

What is more, it may not be possible to establish such hospitals in every affected city or transport patients from far-flung areas to these centralized facilities. In addition, diagnosing 2019-nCoV requires specialized equipment and personnel that may be difficult to scale to test the thousands of people who need it.

If people without symptoms are capable of transmitting the virus, it would be impossible to test entire city populations.

There might be a shortcut.
...........................

Instead of making antibodies in a vat, a US company called RenBio instead injects the genes coding for them into leg muscles. Antibody production in the body continues for weeks or even months, so these injections could be given to people to prevent infections as well as treat those who are already infected.

“Both are possibilities,” says the head of RenBio, Neal Padte. But this has only been tested in animals, so health authorities may be reluctant to try it.

There are a few existing small-molecule drugs that might help. For instance, an experimental antiviral called galidesivir developed for treating Ebola is active against coronaviruses, says its US maker, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. It has already passed safety tests in people.

“The company is in active dialogue with relevant US public health authorities to ensure that galidesivir is available to them,” says John Bluth at BioCryst, though he did not say how fast production could be ramped up.

Most promisingly, two drugs given together to treat HIV – called lopinavir and ritonavir – are already approved for human use, and in small trials they seemed to reduce disease severity and fatalities in people infected by the SARS or MERS coronavirus.

Doctors in Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, have already started a randomised controlled trial of lopinavir and ritonavir. “Given the scale of the outbreak in China, you would hope to get a to get a reasonably quick answer to whether these interventions work,” says Ball.

“The manufacturing for these is already in place and they are easily available.”

New coronavirus: How soon will a treatment be ready and will it work?
30 January 2020

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2232026-new-coronavirus-how-soon-will-a-treatment-be-ready-and-will-it-work/

So far, around a quarter of people infected during the outbreak of a new coronavirus have developed severe respiratory infections, and around 3 per cent have died. With the numbers still climbing alarmingly fast, many groups are already rushing to try to find treatments for the virus.

A vaccine that stops people being infected by the new coronavirus would obviously be better than any treatment, but that is some way off. “A vaccine would take at least a year, if not more,”
.........................................................
says virologist Jonathan Ball at the University of Nottingham in the UK.

The good news is that a few existing drugs might help save lives in the meantime. And new treatments could be developed in as little as six months.


There are two ways of treating viral infections
....................

One is to find small molecules that stop viruses replicating by interfering with viral proteins. Antivirals are usually simple to manufacture, and can be taken in pill form, both big advantages.

But 99 per cent of potential small-molecule drugs fail, says Ball. So developing new antivirals from scratch could take years.

The second way is
..................

to use the same weapons our bodies use: antibodies. Antibodies are large proteins that bind to viruses and trigger their destruction.

When people are infected with a new virus, it can take two weeks for the body to produce enough antibodies to fight it off. Injecting people with antibodies made by cells growing in a vat can keep viruses in check until a person’s immune response kicks in fully.

Antibodies are less likely to cause side effects than small-molecule drugs, because they bind more specifically to viruses whereas small-molecule drugs tend to stick to lots of other things as well. This means we should be able to find safe and effective antibodies against the 2019 coronavirus very quickly – the problem will be mass producing them fast enough.

In fact, a team in China has already tested antibodies against the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak in 2002, and found one that binds to the new coronavirus as well. But team leader Tianlei Ying at Fudan University told New Scientist it could take one or two months just to make enough of the antibody to start tests in animals and people.

There are two antibodies for treating the MERS coronavirus that have already been tested in people. The US biotechnology company that makes them, Regeneron, says they are unlikely to work against the 2019 coronavirus, but it will test them and others. While developing antibodies for Ebola, it took Regeneron six months to get to the stage where human tests could begin.

A Chinese company called WuXi Biologics announced in a press release that it is establishing a 100-strong team dedicated to developing antibody treatments for the 2019 coronavirus. It says it might be able to start mass production in a record four or five months.

By that stage there’s a chance the outbreak could be over or millions might be infected – in which case making enough would not be easy. There are not many antibody factories, says Ball, and they are all already busy producing antibodies for treating cancer and other diseases.

MFCB rock solid though...

LOL!

this WHO declaration is the peak of the hype (even that they did fearing for under developed countries medical capability)...


sell now and never to return...

go for those bashed w/o a fxxking logical impact on fundamentals

seriously

you ask the kids in amazon also...or the sundarban mangroves in Bangladesh also know about coronavirus already...

despite the virus being so smart to spread without symptoms...technology and connectivity between humans is far superior now.....

even the orang asli in jungles wearing masks now....all carrying hand phones with live coverage of wuhan virus...

coronavirus is totally over-hyped..

Due to media accessibility which is far superior and efficient compared to the days SARS almost all patients are being accounted very fast....

soon you will see the no.of infected barely rising (probably in a week)...

and all the hype will be gone...

passive smoke...and "nicotine" is the "real virus" which people are addicted to....

no WHO emergency declaration?

since spreading takes place in schools and universities...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-11844169

Passive smoking 'kills 600,000' worldwide

Children are particularly at risk of the effects of passive smoking in their own homes. The first global study into the effects of passive smoking has estimated it causes 600,000 deaths every year.

One-third of those killed are children, often exposed to smoke at home, the World Health Organization (WHO) suggested.

.............

LOL! Passive smoking far more dangerous than Coronavirus.....

200,000 child death a year.
=====================

yup...its over...

The Permanent Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee paid a visit and encouraged Tet at Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power Plant on the first day of Spring Canh Ty

Sunday 26/01/2020
.................

http://tinhuyhaiduong.vn/news/Pages/new.aspx?ItemID=1749

According to the report of the General Director of the Group, the Plant has now completed Unit 1, and is expected to put into operation and generation by March 2020.

Unit 2 has basically completed 95% of the work, scheduled to operate in October 2020.

In order for the Thermal Power Plant to come into operation, there are still problems in issuing a slag dumping permit to store ash. and during the test run will cause noise and smog, the Plant is looking forward to the province and local people to support.

Speaking at the visit, giving gifts of encouragement to officers and workers of BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant, Mr. Nguyen Manh Hien, Member of the Party Central Committee, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, Chairman of the provincial People's Council acknowledged and praised efforts, efforts with the completed works and the construction and installation schedule, expected to put into operation for 2 units.

..........

march 2020 for unit 1 is just "next month"!.
.========================================

The Permanent Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee paid a visit and encouraged Tet at Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power Plant on the first day of Spring Canh Ty

Sunday 26/01/2020
.................

http://tinhuyhaiduong.vn/news/Pages/new.aspx?ItemID=1749

According to the report of the General Director of the Group, the Plant has now completed Unit 1, and is expected to put into operation and generation by March 2020.

Unit 2 has basically completed 95% of the work, scheduled to operate in October 2020.

In order for the Thermal Power Plant to come into operation, there are still problems in issuing a slag dumping permit to store ash. and during the test run will cause noise and smog, the Plant is looking forward to the province and local people to support.

Speaking at the visit, giving gifts of encouragement to officers and workers of BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant, Mr. Nguyen Manh Hien, Member of the Party Central Committee, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, Chairman of the provincial People's Council acknowledged and praised efforts, efforts with the completed works and the construction and installation schedule, expected to put into operation for 2 units.

.............................

the above is the latest most accurate un-shakkable conclusive news

i really cannot ask anything better than that

Thanks for sharing too TST1234
...............................

It is clear the selling was totally on baseless info...purely due to psychological fear.

oh, i totally missed that info VIN3133, thank for sharing again:

http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/1/27/art_14612_2059900.html

..............................................



"We are here for the Spring Festival this year." Zhu Yiliu, deputy director of the Technical and Quality Department of the Haiyang Project in Vietnam, said that although he cannot return to his hometown during the Spring Festival, there is still a strong sense of year in the project department.
...............................

All the staff on duty and Vietnam ’s territories The workers gathered together to celebrate the coming of the New Year. The friendship of "comrades and brothers" in the "Belt and Road" construction made the meaning of this Spring Festival particularly different.
　　"I hope that through the efforts of the Chinese New Year, I will strive for more time to enable the Haiyang Project in Vietnam to complete the commissioning of Unit 1 with high quality in 2020, effectively solve the problem of local power shortage as soon as possible, drive industrial upgrading, and inject Vietnam's economic and social development. The new kinetic energy adds new achievements to the construction of the “Belt and Road”, and presents a gift to the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam. At the same time, it also accumulates more experience for the company's international business performance and demonstrates its 'haiyang role' with its achievements. " During the Spring Festival, the project department will arrange a collective dinner, hoping to make frontline workers at home and abroad feel the red fire and strong Chinese New Year thoughts.

If you see the H1N1** in 2009, the no. of cases and fatality rate (17.4%) way much higher than Wuhan virus of 2%, refer chart below:

https://i.insider.com/5e32faee24306a25ce0db2ca?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-wuhan-coronavirus-compares-to-other-outbreaks-pandemics-2020-1

However, the advent of technology - media accessibility had made Wuhan virus appear "spectacularly way more dramatic".

Key fact market is not figuring out is that the fatality rate is 2%. This is incomparable to what other viruses had caused.

anyway, time will reveal reality....eventually.

Why it's a mistake for investors to compare the coronavirus to SARS: Economist

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mistake-for-investors-to-compare-coronavirus-to-sars-economist-173312864.html

Investors looking to the 2002 to 2003 SARS outbreak as precedent for how global markets and the economy will perform during the current coronavirus developments will receive an imperfect guide, according to economists from at least one firm.

Extrapolating the S&P 500’s performance from during the SARS period to the present would suggest that stocks are going down before recovering. But to do so alone would be “amongst the most misguided approaches” to predicting market performance amid the current outbreak, said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist for RBC Capital Markets.

That’s because both the economic backdrop and geopolitical concerns during the SARS outbreak were vastly different than those of the present, making it difficult to directly compare the two situations, he said.

“With the advent of the coronavirus many market participants have dusted off the market reaction in the midst of the SARS epidemic circa 2002/2003. Looking at the tape for that period shows U.S. equities came off nearly 13% from the time the first case of SARS was reported in late 2002 to the 2003 intraday lows,” Porcelli said.

“But one major event at the time makes market reaction analysis with respect to SARS pretty useless – the Iraq War,” he added.

As Porcelli notes, former President George W. Bush’s administration signed off on a resolution authorizing military force against Iraq in mid-October 2002. Developments around the beginning of this war overlapped with the first case of SARS, reported in Guangdong, China, on Nov. 16, 2002.

While the S&P 500’s low that year did come on the same day the World Health Organization issued an emergency declaration over SARS in March 2003, the outbreak’s overall lifespan was too closely aligned with developments with the Iraqi War to ignore their joint impact on markets, Porcelli said. The first invasion of the Iraq War came just a week after the WHO’s alert.

“The point is: How can we possibly disentangle the market reaction to the build-up and start of the Iraq War from that of SARS?
........................................................

We can’t,” he said.


Economic backdrop
.................

The pathological similarities between the SARS virus nearly two decades ago and the current coronavirus have further exacerbated comparisons between the two. Experts have suggested the 2019 virus is genetically similar to SARS, but with clinically milder severity and fatality rates observed so far. The coronavirus has so far resulted in about 170 deaths and more than 8,000 cases worldwide, versus the 774 deaths among more than 8,000 cases reported during the SARS outbreak.

Comparisons in market response to the two outbreaks are less relevant given the differences in economic backdrops during the periods these diseases arose, Porcelli said.

Namely, the U.S. economy was in much weaker shape between 2002 to 2003 than it is in the present.

“A massive distinction between now and when the SARS epidemic took hold is in the performance of U.S. economic data,” Porcelli said. “One could make a strong argument that based on the data flow at the time, the U.S. was on the precipice of a double-dip recession.”

In 2002, weekly unemployment claims – a closely watched barometer of the labor market and overall health of the domestic economy – rose to more than 400,000 per week by mid-2003, and the unemployment rate climbed to more than 6%. That compares to a current economy with jobless claims averaging in the low 200,000s and the unemployment rate at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

And on the consumer sentiment side, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index registered at 131.6 in December, nearing all-time highs. The consumer sentiment index in 2003 wallowed at less than half that reading.

“The fundamental backdrop could not be more different,” Porcelli said. “But despite a polar opposite economic backdrop this has not stopped most from falling all over themselves to extrapolate the current phenomenon to 2002/2003.”

no way COD date gets affected due to coronavirus....

even if you take the 20,000 as the number of infected, the odds of an engineer from China having it is:

20,000 / 1,400,000,000
= 1 in 100,000

......

further the odds of the engineer having a critical position to direct the commissioning is too low

Just using a gap of 1.5 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity sales...estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Million to obtain an IRR of 12% (6500 hrs).

For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs..

.................

coronavirus can effect businesses worldwide but not utility sector.....

as they days tick we can only get closer to commercial operation

'Only high-quality masks can defend against coronavirus'

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/01/560477/only-high-quality-masks-can-defend-against-coronavirus

“Everywhere I go (in addition to a mask) I also bring alcohol and gel sanitiser to clean my hands and avoid areas with Chinese tourists.”

Others wore heavier duty – and more effective – PM2.5 or 3M (N95) masks, in a city shrouded for weeks by damaging pollution.

Fourteen infections, all but one detected in Chinese visitors, have been reported in Thailand, a peak season destination for the tour groups from the mainland.

For chemist Suphak Saphakkul that has led to the most intense panic-buying of medical items he has witnessed since the SARS epidemic in 2002/3.

“All our (mask) suppliers are out of stock. These masks are made in China and the country itself is out of stock,” he said.

Only high-quality masks can defend against coronavirus'

January 28, 2020 @ 7:14pm


https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/01/560477/only-high-quality-masks-can-defend-against-coronavirus

Others wore heavier duty – and more effective – PM2.5 or 3M (N95) masks, in a city shrouded for weeks by damaging pollution.

Fourteen infections, all but one detected in Chinese visitors, have been reported in Thailand, a peak season destination for the tour groups from the mainland.

For chemist Suphak Saphakkul that has led to the most intense panic-buying of medical items he has witnessed since the SARS epidemic in 2002/3.

“All our (mask) suppliers are out of stock. These masks are made in China and the country itself is out of stock,” he said.

https://gulfnews.com/uae/health/coronavirus-first-case-confirmed-in-uae-1.1580273983681

every hospital everywhere in the world...they will be scrambling for cleanroom apparels....

every public place everywhere in the world ....will soon be compulsory to wear masks..

Face masks, hand sanitiser sold out in KK (updated)

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/01/28/face-masks-hand-sanitiser-sold-out-in-jb-kk

congrats charlest sifu...you deserved it cause you were in supermax for quite sometime!

even after no more new cases of patients and fatality....the whole china will stay cautious...

mask will be selling like a compulsory use and throw napkin for all travellers especially in asia..

Adventa already exploded...its time for Mtag

it appears to be a long term phenomenon...so demand will persist looks like..

ok la...this time we have to respect sifu pang72, charlesT already...

very experienced people..

i admit i dont have their foresight

i only bought mtag today

Dsonic should actually benefit from coronavirus due to increased immigration security requirement worlwide and especially for chinese travelling to african countries